Analysis 2024 AFL SC: Rolling Perfect Team [Post #242 onwards]

Darkie

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#22
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#22
Beg2Differ said:
It increases quite a bit for each round added. This week it took about 20 mins up from about 8 mins the week before. It will quite quickly get to a point where I will have to set it to run overnight.

I did a test run on 2019 for all 23 rounds and it took about 2 days to find a solution.
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That makes perfect sense. Lucky it’s a shortened season I suppose! Perhaps no byes also makes it a fraction more straightforward?
 
couchPOTATO

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#24
Great work. In seasons past an optimised team with $6-$7million salary cap will normally lag behind the overall winner for most of the season and then bolt home in the last 6-7 weeks to pip them at the post.

You may not have time to run it every week but if you could run the numbers for a $7 million team after rounds 7, 12 and 17 or just as an end of season comparison it usually shows a more realistic and in my view more interesting trading pattern compared to the $10 million version.
 
Beg2Differ

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#25
Rolling perfect team after round 6. Total score of 16975 (avg 2829) compares to current leader of 13335 (avg 2223).

I have been experimenting with formats and listing each week like this is the easiest to read I think however that will get harder each week. I have condensed this week by removing some columns. Note the price column is the price after the round is complete.

1594647313871.png
 
Beg2Differ

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#26
couchPOTATO said:
Great work. In seasons past an optimised team with $6-$7million salary cap will normally lag behind the overall winner for most of the season and then bolt home in the last 6-7 weeks to pip them at the post.

You may not have time to run it every week but if you could run the numbers for a $7 million team after rounds 7, 12 and 17 or just as an end of season comparison it usually shows a more realistic and in my view more interesting trading pattern compared to the $10 million version.
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I am not sure I follow the logic as to why a $7M salary cap team is relevant however here it is for your perusal.

1594729132184.png
 
nicohighscore

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#27
I guess the idea behind this is that the optimal team is the one which has, at the start, the most "hidden value"/ upside potential - that means all the rookies and midpricers that will have a massive jump in their average output during the season.

I you "force" your initial team to be worth 10M (or close - as it seems to be), you probably force the selection of premiums which don't have this much upside potential.

If the starting team price is not a constraint, it would be interesting to see if, round after round, the rolling perfect team starting value converges toward the 6/7 M total as mentioned by CouchPotatoe....
 
couchPOTATO

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#28
Beg2Differ said:
I am not sure I follow the logic as to why a $7M salary cap team is relevant however here it is for your perusal.

View attachment 18799
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Thanks mate.

I was wondering why the $7m team had done so well (900 pts in front of the current #1), partly due to the 5 perfect trades post Round 1 and partly because the $6m-$7m quote above was from memory when in fact $5m-$6m is the actual range. When I looked it up $5.6 million was the figure that would have allowed a perfect team to win the $50k in 2014.

If you try $5.5 million (instead of $7m) in a few weeks time I reckon that will be bang on as a second team that should finish close to #1 for the season but may lag a little behind early on noting a lot of the $400k plus players will be squeezed out by rookies or cheaper midpricers due to a further $50k per player reduction in the starting team.
 
couchPOTATO

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#30
Are the starting team and previous weeks changing much each time you add another round, compared to earlier in the season ?
 
Beg2Differ

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#32
This table is designed to show how the perfect team changes from round to round and in particular which new players become relevant each round. Under each round column it shows which round(s) that player was in the perfect team. A red font indicates they were in the perfect team in that round but their score was not required.

Note that when I run the model each week it could select a different non-playing rookie at the same price than it did for the previous week so for the sake of this table I have standardised those selections to reduce the total number of players.

Interesting that there have been only 2 players that have been in every round of every perfect team and they are Lachie Neale and Marlion Pickett. Neale's score has been required each week but Pickett's score has only been required in round 1 and now 7.

1595691344131.png
 
randomcliche

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#34
Beg2Differ said:
Rolling perfect team after round 8. Total score of 22,514 (avg 2814) compares to current leader of 17,981 (avg 2248).

View attachment 19275
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Thank you! After looking at it for 5 minutes my mind hurts. It basically says you need a few top end, a whole pile of mid price list clogging players and few cash cows. It hurts, it hurts, it hurts.
 
Beg2Differ

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#35
randomcliche said:
Thank you! After looking at it for 5 minutes my mind hurts. It basically says you need a few top end, a whole pile of mid price list clogging players and few cash cows. It hurts, it hurts, it hurts.
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It actually means that all you have to do is replace the player that bombs each week with the equivalent priced player that excels that week.

My biggest learning so far is that this is an utterly useless way of working out how to do well in this game.
 
Beg2Differ

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#36
Presumably just catering for the boffins now (like me) however here is the highest score achievable after 9 rounds. Apologies a bit late this week and is now taking well over 2 hours to solve.

Total score of 25,252 (avg 2806) compares to current leader of 20,336 (avg 2260).

1596769204992.png
 
Beg2Differ

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#38
nicohigh said:
still very impressed by this...

Will it be able to solve the full 17 rounds ?
Click to expand...
I believe it will be able to solve however it will just take time. I did a test run on the 2019 (23 rounds) and it took over 36 hours to solve. I am currently attempting to build the calc into a more powerful solver which should run quicker however there is a bit of a learning curve involved.
 
Beg2Differ

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#39
Update of my table above which shows how the perfect team changes from round to round and in particular which new players become relevant each round. Under each round column it shows which round(s) that player was in the perfect team. A red font indicates they were in the perfect team in that round but their score was not required.

1596805580244.png

edit: Noticed an error in the colour coding so have updated.
 
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