Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

[Ironhawk]

I appreciate the responses more than the accuracy so all good
Just curious though, let me know what your hit rate was

Finally got around to reviewing my responses. Currently I am just under half way through the topic at this point, I stopped at the start of Rd 1 (Page 51). I'll try to get the rest done in the next day or two before the 2021 comp begins.

X v Y's responded to: 212
Number of times I chose the better option: 114
Hit rate: 53.77%
Longest correct streak: 5 (3 times)
Longest incorrect streak: 5 (1 time)

Honestly, it is hard to judge which is better out of some of these combos, especially where players got injuries, missed games etc. I tried to be as unbiased as possible with my judgements as to which was better. There were some very close calls in the end, such as Mitchell (17/1930) v Dangerfield (17/1936) or J.Kelly (14/1604) v Fyfe (14/1585) for example. With these sort of choices, although either result is much the same, I based which was the better option on total score.

As some of these are not pure X v Y, a lot with 3 or more options, it's not a bad result, and I am doing better than I expected so far. I did like the one where I nailed a pick 1 of 8 option towards the end - Bailey Williams did have the best season out of those, and was in my team to boot (post 890). As things changed with Covid, which obviously I didn't expect early on, I'm interested to see if these results improve or drop off once the season starts.

I'll update with the final stats once I get them.

 

[Ironhawk]

Finally got around to reviewing my responses. Currently I am just under half way through the topic at this point, I stopped at the start of Rd 1 (Page 51). I'll try to get the rest done in the next day or two before the 2021 comp begins.

X v Y's responded to: 212
Number of times I chose the better option: 114
Hit rate: 53.77%
Longest correct streak: 5 (3 times)
Longest incorrect streak: 5 (1 time)

Honestly, it is hard to judge which is better out of some of these combos, especially where players got injuries, missed games etc. I tried to be as unbiased as possible with my judgements as to which was better. There were some very close calls in the end, such as Mitchell (17/1930) v Dangerfield (17/1936) or J.Kelly (14/1604) v Fyfe (14/1585) for example. With these sort of choices, although either result is much the same, I based which was the better option on total score.

As some of these are not pure X v Y, a lot with 3 or more options, it's not a bad result, and I am doing better than I expected so far. I did like the one where I nailed a pick 1 of 8 option towards the end - Bailey Williams did have the best season out of those, and was in my team to boot (post 890). As things changed with Covid, which obviously I didn't expect early on, I'm interested to see if these results improve or drop off once the season starts.

I'll update with the final stats once I get them.

Finally got through the rest of this topic.

X v Y's responded to: 451
Number of times I chose the better option: 244
Hit rate: 54.1%
Longest correct streaks: 8 (1 time), 7 (2 times)
Longest incorrect streak: 6 (1 time)

I'm not sure that I'll be responding to all XvY's again this year, I'm likely to be a lot busier at work this year unfortunately. Rereading the topic and checking these XvY's has been beneficial though, it has reminded me of some players to consider including this season, and one or two popular choices that I don't like based on 2020 stats, which will hopefully help my personal performance in 2021. I probably should have listened to more of the advice I gave here based on how I went, but there were also a lot of bad calls I made, so I guess it balances out.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Walsh vs Rowell + 50k

 

[Darkie]

Walsh vs Rowell + 50k

This is probably a risk/reward thing in my view.

Walsh is probably more likely to play every game and go somewhere around M6-8 level in my opinion. Rowell is more likely to kill it, or have a down year with second year blues/attention/his shoulder impacting him.

I would be much closer to picking Rowell myself. I would really struggle to pick Walsh over his teammate Cripps, unless Cripps is demonstrably not right.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

This is probably a risk/reward thing in my view.

Walsh is probably more likely to play every game and go somewhere around M6-8 level in my opinion. Rowell is more likely to kill it, or have a down year with second year blues/attention/his shoulder impacting him.

I would be much closer to picking Rowell myself. I would really struggle to pick Walsh over his teammate Cripps, unless Cripps is demonstrably not right.

I am thinking ill take both Cripps and Walsh.

 

[TopBillings]

Lloyd & Williams
V
Laird & Stewart

 

[Darkie]

Lloyd & Williams
V
Laird & Stewart

The second option by 2-0 for me.

Lloyd is obviously a gun, but I don’t think he’s an option for me at that price.

Laird with more mid time is a good alternative, and arguably much more appealing than Williams as an established def premium in his own right, with good game counts.

I’m surprised Stewart isn’t more popular. He’s discounted from an injury game, and I believe it was a collarbone, so probably not that concerning in terms of recurrence risk. He’s otherwise been pretty durable, seems to still be improving, is a good age, etc.

Williams I can see the appeal in, but think his durability will cause headaches. It’s also not clear to me that he can sustain significantly higher scoring in the midfield - I think the 2020 stats are based on something like 8% mid time, which to my mind is (1) not a large enough sample to be meaningful (especially given he only played 11 shortened games anyway!) and (2) potentially outright misleading (surely you can run harder if you’re only playing 8% of the time on ball?).

 

[TopBillings]

Walsh, Phillips & McDonald
V
Taranto, Greene & Laird

 

[Connoisseur]

Walsh, Phillips & McDonald
V
Taranto, Greene & Laird

Taranto, Greene and Laird quite comfortably.

Whilst underpriced, Phillips will struggle to reach a mid to high 90’s average and will likely hover around the 85-91 range. In 2018 he finished 6th for total disposals, 4th for total kicks, 5th for total metres gained and 3rd for total uncontested possessions and only just managed to muster an average of 90. Greene comes with more risk in regards to suspension/injury etc but far more upside.

Not overly fond of McDonald at his current price and would place around half a dozen other defenders ahead of him in that $450,000 to J Lloyd range. The consistency and durability of Laird, coupled with the likelihood of maintaining his new midfield role provides more security and assurance for an extra $50,000. I would have preferred to seen more games from McDonald in the 90-115 range in the 2nd half of the season and do not expect him to continue having 30+ disposals and 8+marks on a regular basis.

Before dislocating his right shoulder in the 2020 pre season, Taranto had finished in the top 10 for total tackles in his 2nd and 3rd season (9th and 2nd respectively). Accumulates a lot of the ball and room for improvement regarding his disposal efficiency should bode well for an average between the 100-106 range.

 

[SlicenDyce]

Merrett & Hately
V
Taranto & Rowell

 

[BIGB0Y]

Merrett & Hately
V
Taranto & Rowell

Option 2

 

[GrainFedBeef]

This is probably a risk/reward thing in my view.

Walsh is probably more likely to play every game and go somewhere around M6-8 level in my opinion. Rowell is more likely to kill it, or have a down year with second year blues/attention/his shoulder impacting him.

I would be much closer to picking Rowell myself. I would really struggle to pick Walsh over his teammate Cripps, unless Cripps is demonstrably not right.

I am thinking ill take both Cripps and Walsh.

I am somewhat tempted by all 3!

Down year for Cripps, more attention than previously or shoulder impact?

Walsh more mid time over wing time. Is he the next Merrett where he plays different roles and doesn't reach the heights he deserves with Williams and others in the side.

Rowell beast, if shoulder doesn't impact his tackling ability, his energy and frenzy he brings just racks up points. Does he get more attention?

 

[freowho]

Merrett & Hately
V
Taranto & Rowell

Option 1 for me. Keeper and cash.

Option 2 might be 2 M9's.

 

[Santoz]

Option 1 for me. Keeper and cash.

Option 2 might be 2 M9's.

You won't like the midfield I'm toying with at the minute then

 

[freowho]

You won't like the midfield I'm toying with at the minute then

View attachment 25188

I know . They seem to be very popular and I'm not suggesting they can't be good picks but I'm not seeing it.
Taranto has shown he has trouble turning his stats into good supercoach scores.
Rowell got injured when Parfitt was sweating on him. He was almost tackled before he got the ball and I can see that happening a lot more.
Taranto at his price could still end up in my team but doesn't make me feel Big Kev.
Rowell is a hard no for me.

 

[Santoz]

I know . They seem to be very popular and I'm not suggesting they can't be good picks but I'm not seeing it.
Taranto has shown he has trouble turning his stats into good supercoach scores.
Rowell got injured when Parfitt was sweating on him. He was almost tackled before he got the ball and I can see that happening a lot more.
Taranto at his price could still end up in my team but doesn't make me feel Big Kev.
Rowell is a hard no for me.

I get the feeling Taranto was sore last year so I'm willing to forgive.

Rowell has had enough time to get the shoulder right & seems uber professional. Happy to back him in.

Nobody is talking about Bailey Smith, but in his draft year was touted as a more complete midfielder than Walsh & the Dogs mids share a lot of points. Happy to gamble him.

Walsh being hyped as being a big improver (makes sense) so if that's the case it''s another reason I'm happy to gamble Bailey Smith.

 

[SlicenDyce]

Thank you!

One more:
Lloyd & Williams
V
Whitfield & Daniel

 

[TopBillings]

Thank you!

One more:
Lloyd & Williams
V
Whitfield & Daniel

Whitfield & Daniel

 

[BC]

Rowell ($495,100) v Cogs ($528,900)
Gaz 2.0 in the early stage of his career V a skipper that was dropped and should be doing everything possible to redeem himself to the footy world.

 

[Santoz]

Rowell ($495,100) v Cogs ($528,900)
Gaz 2.0 in the early stage of his career V a skipper that was dropped and should be doing everything possible to redeem himself to the footy world.

Gaz 2.0