Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Final score......I WON 2568 to 2407!!!
💪🏼
My highest score of the season came in the final round yet again! And my second highest score was last round!
Been a crazy season. It looked like I was gonna miss out on the finals but just made it in through in the last couple of round-robin games.
But the team (especially a certain few players!)...and YOU as always...came through when it mattered the most! I'm soooo elated!!
I've only played SuperCoach for two seasons but it's now back to back wins in this league!
Also, I won the grand final in my other league as well! However it's this main league where the real BRAGGING RIGHTS and the big cash prize was!!! I get to enjoy them both again for at least another 6 months!!!💰🤑 (...well the cash probably/definitely won't last 6 months but the bragging rights will!! )
Just wanted to say a really BIG THANK YOU for all your advice/suggestions/expertise that you've offered me yet again this season! It helps me so much and I truly appreciate it! 🙏🏼
p.s. With the AFL SuperCoach season now done I've seen a ton of posts from others about BBL SuperCoach...I'm actually tempted to try it out for the first time this upcoming season!!
p.s.s. ...@Darkie...the superstition is still working!! Long may it continue!🏆
💪🏼My highest score of the season came in the final round yet again! And my second highest score was last round!
Been a crazy season. It looked like I was gonna miss out on the finals but just made it in through in the last couple of round-robin games.
But the team (especially a certain few players!)...and YOU as always...came through when it mattered the most! I'm soooo elated!!
I've only played SuperCoach for two seasons but it's now back to back wins in this league!
Also, I won the grand final in my other league as well! However it's this main league where the real BRAGGING RIGHTS and the big cash prize was!!! I get to enjoy them both again for at least another 6 months!!!
💰🤑 (...well the cash probably/definitely won't last 6 months but the bragging rights will!! )Just wanted to say a really BIG THANK YOU for all your advice/suggestions/expertise that you've offered me yet again this season! It helps me so much and I truly appreciate it! 🙏🏼
p.s. With the AFL SuperCoach season now done I've seen a ton of posts from others about BBL SuperCoach...I'm actually tempted to try it out for the first time this upcoming season!!
p.s.s. ...@Darkie...the superstition is still working!! Long may it continue!
🏆
Hi Rowsus.
Thought that i might line a few up and you can knock them down when you are ready.
1 - What is the history on player being the Number 1 scorer in their position for consecutive years (or even Top 3)?
I am specifically interested in Neale and Lloyd. They have been been the top scorer for 2 consecutive years and I am wondering if anyone has done 3 years in a row?
2- Which positions gained and lost the most points average last season with the shorter qtrs?
Was not sure how to ask the question so for some context - What did the Top 6 in each position average across the season in 2017/18/19 compared with 2020? Without looking at the numbers it seemed that the rucks and defenders gained the most and those points came from the forwards.
Thanks in advance
Thought that i might line a few up and you can knock them down when you are ready.
1 - What is the history on player being the Number 1 scorer in their position for consecutive years (or even Top 3)?
I am specifically interested in Neale and Lloyd. They have been been the top scorer for 2 consecutive years and I am wondering if anyone has done 3 years in a row?
2- Which positions gained and lost the most points average last season with the shorter qtrs?
Was not sure how to ask the question so for some context - What did the Top 6 in each position average across the season in 2017/18/19 compared with 2020? Without looking at the numbers it seemed that the rucks and defenders gained the most and those points came from the forwards.
Thanks in advance
Welcome back for another season!!!
As usual, I will try to answer the questions that pique my interest in as much depth as time will allow me. Also as usual, all questions will be answered, where possible and practical, in the order that they were asked.
For those unfamiliar with this thread, it was first started by @Grant back on 27/6/2013.
That initial thread closed at the end of that season, and this thread was opened at the start of the following season.
The initial thread can be found here: Questions For Rowsus
That initial thread contained 572 posts, and has to date received 53,921 views.
This thread was started by myself on 25/1/2014.
To date, including this post, it contains 10,087 posts, and has had
That's a total of 10,659 posts, and 1,063,198 views over 7.5 years.
Without wanting to blow my own trumpet too much, when I look back at some of the early posts, I'm amazed at the amount of time and research I was able to put into some of them. A lot of them still hold up today, for anyone game enough to fish back 500 pages!
Part of the reason I was able to do that all those years ago, was that I was unemployed, and living in Denmark. I still live in Denmark, but follow Australian news and sport very closely. Being that Denmark is 10 hours (and in some ways, 20 years) behind Australia, I'm awake when all of you are sleeping, and I had not much better to do with my time, than to statistically research your questions.
The aim of the thread isn't necessarily to give "right" answers to every question, but more to maybe open your thinking to alternatives that you may not not have thought of, or had time to research properly yourselves.
I see I already have 3 or 4 questions waiting in the queue, so if have anything you'd like me to give an opinion on, then ask away.
Good luck for 2021!!!
As usual, I will try to answer the questions that pique my interest in as much depth as time will allow me. Also as usual, all questions will be answered, where possible and practical, in the order that they were asked.
For those unfamiliar with this thread, it was first started by @Grant back on 27/6/2013.
That initial thread closed at the end of that season, and this thread was opened at the start of the following season.
The initial thread can be found here: Questions For Rowsus
That initial thread contained 572 posts, and has to date received 53,921 views.
This thread was started by myself on 25/1/2014.
To date, including this post, it contains 10,087 posts, and has had
1,003,277 views!
That's a total of 10,659 posts, and 1,063,198 views over 7.5 years.
Without wanting to blow my own trumpet too much, when I look back at some of the early posts, I'm amazed at the amount of time and research I was able to put into some of them. A lot of them still hold up today, for anyone game enough to fish back 500 pages!
Part of the reason I was able to do that all those years ago, was that I was unemployed, and living in Denmark. I still live in Denmark, but follow Australian news and sport very closely. Being that Denmark is 10 hours (and in some ways, 20 years) behind Australia, I'm awake when all of you are sleeping, and I had not much better to do with my time, than to statistically research your questions.
The aim of the thread isn't necessarily to give "right" answers to every question, but more to maybe open your thinking to alternatives that you may not not have thought of, or had time to research properly yourselves.
I see I already have 3 or 4 questions waiting in the queue, so if have anything you'd like me to give an opinion on, then ask away.
Good luck for 2021!!!
Hi B2D,
it's a good question, and obviously we'll know a lot more, but not the full answer, as we get close Round 1. I suspect most SC'ers mentally or sub-consciously locked him in for 2021, when his 2020 season ended after 4.14 games, for an adjusted SC average of 123, as against his actual average of 102. He averaged 17 disposals/game, which adjusts out to 21/game. His CP rate of 60% is just extra-ordinary, and his DE of 72% is actually pretty ridiculous for someone with a CP rate of 60%. To give a quick comparisom, Lachie Neale averaged 27 Disposals, at a CP rate of 52% and DE of 72%. Fyfe averaged 21.4 Disposal at a CP rate of 58% and DE of 74%. This means Rowell in this area of his stats, is comparable to the best of the best, though admittedly it's a small sample size.
Obviously, pre-season games will go a long towards shedding light on how he has recovered from his injury, and if he is capable of picking up where he left off.
The close enough to $500,000 price point ($495,100) might be slightly higher than some hoped, and it is interesting as to where you set the tipping point. If he cost $102,000 he'd be in 100% of serious/competitive teams, and if he cost $700,000 he'd probably be in around 3% of serious/competitive teams. Obviously the tipping point is in between, and my guess is, they've got this one right. There will be a fairly evenish split of people thinking he's cheap, lock him in, and those thinking Gee, that's a little high, I might just watch his early games, and see if I need to use a correction trade on him!
I think part of the worry is how he is priced, given his short history, when compared to Kelly from WC (+$22,300), or Yeo (-$12,100), just to name 2. Or even looking at other young guns like Cerra (-$10,300), who averaged 101 in the 2nd half of the season, and is coming into his 4th season, or your boys Simpkin (+$4,600) or LDU (-$62,300). With Higgins gone, there is a definitely plenty of space for LDU to start to flourish, in his 4th season.
My guess is, if he puts in a solid pre-season game or two, that we'll see Rowell in 50-60% of teams. The higher his ownership % gets, the more I'll be happy to put him in the "I'll just see how he goes, when the real stuff starts" basket. I'd rather find a 3rd or 4th year player, priced quite a bit cheaper, playing in a team where the door has opened through retirements and/or trading for this player to step up, and improve quite a bit (hopefully).
In general, I think anyone saying they are sure he'll be 20/110+ are probably kidding themselves. Sure it could happen, but to be sure of either parts of that equation is really discounting history, and the chances of him going say 18/105 (with say 2 injury affected scores in there) far too much.
it's a good question, and obviously we'll know a lot more, but not the full answer, as we get close Round 1. I suspect most SC'ers mentally or sub-consciously locked him in for 2021, when his 2020 season ended after 4.14 games, for an adjusted SC average of 123, as against his actual average of 102. He averaged 17 disposals/game, which adjusts out to 21/game. His CP rate of 60% is just extra-ordinary, and his DE of 72% is actually pretty ridiculous for someone with a CP rate of 60%. To give a quick comparisom, Lachie Neale averaged 27 Disposals, at a CP rate of 52% and DE of 72%. Fyfe averaged 21.4 Disposal at a CP rate of 58% and DE of 74%. This means Rowell in this area of his stats, is comparable to the best of the best, though admittedly it's a small sample size.
Obviously, pre-season games will go a long towards shedding light on how he has recovered from his injury, and if he is capable of picking up where he left off.
The close enough to $500,000 price point ($495,100) might be slightly higher than some hoped, and it is interesting as to where you set the tipping point. If he cost $102,000 he'd be in 100% of serious/competitive teams, and if he cost $700,000 he'd probably be in around 3% of serious/competitive teams. Obviously the tipping point is in between, and my guess is, they've got this one right. There will be a fairly evenish split of people thinking he's cheap, lock him in, and those thinking Gee, that's a little high, I might just watch his early games, and see if I need to use a correction trade on him!
I think part of the worry is how he is priced, given his short history, when compared to Kelly from WC (+$22,300), or Yeo (-$12,100), just to name 2. Or even looking at other young guns like Cerra (-$10,300), who averaged 101 in the 2nd half of the season, and is coming into his 4th season, or your boys Simpkin (+$4,600) or LDU (-$62,300). With Higgins gone, there is a definitely plenty of space for LDU to start to flourish, in his 4th season.
My guess is, if he puts in a solid pre-season game or two, that we'll see Rowell in 50-60% of teams. The higher his ownership % gets, the more I'll be happy to put him in the "I'll just see how he goes, when the real stuff starts" basket. I'd rather find a 3rd or 4th year player, priced quite a bit cheaper, playing in a team where the door has opened through retirements and/or trading for this player to step up, and improve quite a bit (hopefully).
In general, I think anyone saying they are sure he'll be 20/110+ are probably kidding themselves. Sure it could happen, but to be sure of either parts of that equation is really discounting history, and the chances of him going say 18/105 (with say 2 injury affected scores in there) far too much.
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Hi Rowsus, love your work and reading back over a few pages of this thread I feel as if I've learnt so much already.
Have some questions sort of flowing on from your answer above around how opportunities through injuries or players leaving clubs affects other players.
First of those I want to get your thoughts on is Luke Ryan. He really exploded as a premium defender but did this with being forced into more of a lockdown role due to injuries to Alex Pearce and Joel Hamling. Now was interested to see if you think these players coming back into the fold will affect his scoring in a positive or negative way.
Next one is Taylor Adams. With Treloar moving on does he become a viable chance of being a top 8 midfielder. I feel as if this is his season to really boss the Pies midfield.
Last one is Josh Dunkley. Very interested on your thoughts on not only him but how the addition of Treloar will affect this midfield. There CBA's stats really showed a pecking order for the year of Bont, Macrae, Smith and then Libba. English obviously led the stats and Dunkley was behind all these guys mainly as a ruck later in the year. Is it as simple as Treloar pushes Libba out and Dunkley continues to play forward?
Cheers
Have some questions sort of flowing on from your answer above around how opportunities through injuries or players leaving clubs affects other players.
First of those I want to get your thoughts on is Luke Ryan. He really exploded as a premium defender but did this with being forced into more of a lockdown role due to injuries to Alex Pearce and Joel Hamling. Now was interested to see if you think these players coming back into the fold will affect his scoring in a positive or negative way.
Next one is Taylor Adams. With Treloar moving on does he become a viable chance of being a top 8 midfielder. I feel as if this is his season to really boss the Pies midfield.
Last one is Josh Dunkley. Very interested on your thoughts on not only him but how the addition of Treloar will affect this midfield. There CBA's stats really showed a pecking order for the year of Bont, Macrae, Smith and then Libba. English obviously led the stats and Dunkley was behind all these guys mainly as a ruck later in the year. Is it as simple as Treloar pushes Libba out and Dunkley continues to play forward?
Cheers
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Great answer Rowsus
Whilst Rowell only played a few games, even a smaller sample is the tagging job he received vs Geelong and only had 1-2 disposals before he injured himself midway through the quarter. Had him in my team until I focused on this,
Cerra is one that interests me, 101 2nd half as you said, now 1st rotation for mids rather than a wing/mid role - any thoughts or analysis appreciated.
Whilst Rowell only played a few games, even a smaller sample is the tagging job he received vs Geelong and only had 1-2 disposals before he injured himself midway through the quarter. Had him in my team until I focused on this,
Cerra is one that interests me, 101 2nd half as you said, now 1st rotation for mids rather than a wing/mid role - any thoughts or analysis appreciated.
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Thanks.
You were a little more positive on him than I expected. I can’t see past the fact he is a 4 game player with a bung shoulder who cost nearly $500k. Sure 3 of those games were great however his injury stopped him being exposed to the challenges that all rookies have to face in a long season. I doubt I will start him but preseason (whatever that ends up being) will tell us more.
You were a little more positive on him than I expected. I can’t see past the fact he is a 4 game player with a bung shoulder who cost nearly $500k. Sure 3 of those games were great however his injury stopped him being exposed to the challenges that all rookies have to face in a long season. I doubt I will start him but preseason (whatever that ends up being) will tell us more.
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Hey Rowsus, it’s been a while since I’ve posted but I’ve had this question on my mind for a while.
I see a lot of people comment that you almost have to start the most expensive players because “even if they drop, you’ll need to use at least 2 trades to bring them in”.
What are your thoughts on this idea that it’s a much worse thing to use 2 downgrade trades to bring in 1 star (2 down, 1 up), vs the typical aim of 1 downgrade per premium added (1 down, 1 up)?
For me the math makes little sense, as it’s assumed that if I’ve not started one of these 2 trade players (like Max Gawn) that I’ve used the money to either get multiple premium/keepers, or a mid priced type (like Pruess) who, if things go well, should only require 1 down, 1 up. The other part of the math that doesn’t make sense to me is prices. I’ve seen people say it’s ok if the players average drops by, say, 10 points, because of the whole two trades thing. With a player that expensive, you’re effectively locking in a $100kish loss with that mindset, in a game where you are trying to maximise total squad value and points.
The only reason, in my mind, to start a player that is so expensive and could drop, is captain scores. For me, you pick your two captains and all rookies before building the rest of your side, so it’s ok if the reason is captain, but not ok if the reason is somehow saving trades. Am I missing something though as I’d prefer to be wrong in this forum than in my SC team.
Cheers and I hope you are well.
I see a lot of people comment that you almost have to start the most expensive players because “even if they drop, you’ll need to use at least 2 trades to bring them in”.
What are your thoughts on this idea that it’s a much worse thing to use 2 downgrade trades to bring in 1 star (2 down, 1 up), vs the typical aim of 1 downgrade per premium added (1 down, 1 up)?
For me the math makes little sense, as it’s assumed that if I’ve not started one of these 2 trade players (like Max Gawn) that I’ve used the money to either get multiple premium/keepers, or a mid priced type (like Pruess) who, if things go well, should only require 1 down, 1 up. The other part of the math that doesn’t make sense to me is prices. I’ve seen people say it’s ok if the players average drops by, say, 10 points, because of the whole two trades thing. With a player that expensive, you’re effectively locking in a $100kish loss with that mindset, in a game where you are trying to maximise total squad value and points.
The only reason, in my mind, to start a player that is so expensive and could drop, is captain scores. For me, you pick your two captains and all rookies before building the rest of your side, so it’s ok if the reason is captain, but not ok if the reason is somehow saving trades. Am I missing something though as I’d prefer to be wrong in this forum than in my SC team.
Cheers and I hope you are well.
I eagerly await Rowsus' reply, but I completely agree with most of the above...
Pick the super-premo priced players you like (eg. $650k+ types) for your captain choices and then treat the rest like "normal' premiums (almost - caveat below): Would you pick a premium who you felt strongly would drop their average by 10 over the season? Probably not: you could save 100k and pick a player who will increase their average and get the same output.
The caveat to the above comes more as a risk-based thing and having the right players in your team at the end. Take Lachie Neale for example: Even if his average dropped by 10 he is still hands-down a super-elite midfielder, probably top 3 or 4 by season's end. So you can consider the starting price inclusive of a "tax" you pay to almost guarantee a top player on the line, even if his average drops. A more speculative pick like Adams or Walsh doesn't have the tax, but you pay instead in inherent risk: you may end up with a player who averages 110+ or you may end up with a 100 average list clogger that requires a trade.
So for picking the super-premo types, for me the captain angle works, and the 'risk tax' angle works but outside of that, I don't pick players (on purpose! It still happens by accident an awful lot) who I think will drop in average by 10 or more.
Pick the super-premo priced players you like (eg. $650k+ types) for your captain choices and then treat the rest like "normal' premiums (almost - caveat below): Would you pick a premium who you felt strongly would drop their average by 10 over the season? Probably not: you could save 100k and pick a player who will increase their average and get the same output.
The caveat to the above comes more as a risk-based thing and having the right players in your team at the end. Take Lachie Neale for example: Even if his average dropped by 10 he is still hands-down a super-elite midfielder, probably top 3 or 4 by season's end. So you can consider the starting price inclusive of a "tax" you pay to almost guarantee a top player on the line, even if his average drops. A more speculative pick like Adams or Walsh doesn't have the tax, but you pay instead in inherent risk: you may end up with a player who averages 110+ or you may end up with a 100 average list clogger that requires a trade.
So for picking the super-premo types, for me the captain angle works, and the 'risk tax' angle works but outside of that, I don't pick players (on purpose! It still happens by accident an awful lot
) who I think will drop in average by 10 or more.
Hi Mudflap, I like the new profile pic.
LDU - $432,800 - Mid
Z Fisher - $394,200 - Fwd
While everyone has their own measuring stick, by my measuring stick both are too expensive to be Stepping Stones. My measuring stick says I want +$100,000 to be happy with a Stepping Stone, to go along with the useful on field points. At +$80,000 I'm a bit disappointed, but it's not a total disaster. LDU needs to average 105 to make his $100,000 and Fisher needs to average 97. That means if you take either one, you need to be expecting they are Keepers.
LDU has the double edged problem of, if he does reach that 105-108 area he will be filling your M7/8 spot. While it's nice to fill your M7/8 cheaply, I don't think you should be targetting Keepers that are filling the lower end of their position. D5/6, M7/8, F5/6 you want these positions left open, if possible. There's 2 good reasons for this. Any player you take, with the hope they will fill a higher spot, have those lower spots as a safety net. They can slide down from say a M3 to M7, and while they have disappointed you, they have not been a total disaster. The second reason is, you then need to be getting those M3, D2, F2 types into your team, and that is a lot harder as the season goes on, than it is to do with your starting bank. LDU has another 2 hurdles to overcome to be considered a good pick. His game count in his 3 seasons to date is: 7, 14, 9. You don't want a player ending up on something like 18/108! That PIT60's down to a 99 season, and that means you are giving up too many points to the stronger Midfields, and haven't really gotten too much of a bargain anyway. The second hurdle is, does North have the game to be able support a 110 Mid? Let's look at recent history:
2020: Anderson 15/105, Dumont 17/101, Higgins 17/95, Simpkin 17/93
2019: Cunnington 22/102, Higgins 17/95
2018: Higgins 20/103, Cunnington 22/96
That's every North Mid that has played more than 10 games, and averaged 90+ in the past 3 seasons. It's not very inspiring. Even with the gap left by Higgins leaving, LDU is a player I'm really hoping to avoid. When push comes to shove, if he has played out of his skull in the pre-season, I will definitely be tempted. I'm just hoping to resist that temptation, as he looks like a scoring or game count trap, or both!
Fisher looks like a trap to me. He seems to be going backwards, rather than Fwds, and didn't really play much of a Mid role last season. Is he going to be a small Forward trap, that gets minimal on-ball time, but gives you that odd 110 or 120 to give you hope, and make you hang in there? I think so. I feel Carlton's list has gone beyond him, as far as being a high rotation Mid goes.
2018: 3.3 Clearances/game, 1.0 RB50/game, 2.7 I50/game
2019: 3.0 Clearances/game, 1.0 RB50/game, 2.8 I50/game
2020: 0.9 Clearances/game, No RB50's at all, 3.3 I50/game
Clearances down, no RB50's means he's not getting up the ground at all. I really think as Cartlon's list has strengthened his potential for Mid time has lessened. He's a no from me.
LDU - $432,800 - Mid
Z Fisher - $394,200 - Fwd
While everyone has their own measuring stick, by my measuring stick both are too expensive to be Stepping Stones. My measuring stick says I want +$100,000 to be happy with a Stepping Stone, to go along with the useful on field points. At +$80,000 I'm a bit disappointed, but it's not a total disaster. LDU needs to average 105 to make his $100,000 and Fisher needs to average 97. That means if you take either one, you need to be expecting they are Keepers.
LDU has the double edged problem of, if he does reach that 105-108 area he will be filling your M7/8 spot. While it's nice to fill your M7/8 cheaply, I don't think you should be targetting Keepers that are filling the lower end of their position. D5/6, M7/8, F5/6 you want these positions left open, if possible. There's 2 good reasons for this. Any player you take, with the hope they will fill a higher spot, have those lower spots as a safety net. They can slide down from say a M3 to M7, and while they have disappointed you, they have not been a total disaster. The second reason is, you then need to be getting those M3, D2, F2 types into your team, and that is a lot harder as the season goes on, than it is to do with your starting bank. LDU has another 2 hurdles to overcome to be considered a good pick. His game count in his 3 seasons to date is: 7, 14, 9. You don't want a player ending up on something like 18/108! That PIT60's down to a 99 season, and that means you are giving up too many points to the stronger Midfields, and haven't really gotten too much of a bargain anyway. The second hurdle is, does North have the game to be able support a 110 Mid? Let's look at recent history:
2020: Anderson 15/105, Dumont 17/101, Higgins 17/95, Simpkin 17/93
2019: Cunnington 22/102, Higgins 17/95
2018: Higgins 20/103, Cunnington 22/96
That's every North Mid that has played more than 10 games, and averaged 90+ in the past 3 seasons. It's not very inspiring. Even with the gap left by Higgins leaving, LDU is a player I'm really hoping to avoid. When push comes to shove, if he has played out of his skull in the pre-season, I will definitely be tempted. I'm just hoping to resist that temptation, as he looks like a scoring or game count trap, or both!
Fisher looks like a trap to me. He seems to be going backwards, rather than Fwds, and didn't really play much of a Mid role last season. Is he going to be a small Forward trap, that gets minimal on-ball time, but gives you that odd 110 or 120 to give you hope, and make you hang in there? I think so. I feel Carlton's list has gone beyond him, as far as being a high rotation Mid goes.
2018: 3.3 Clearances/game, 1.0 RB50/game, 2.7 I50/game
2019: 3.0 Clearances/game, 1.0 RB50/game, 2.8 I50/game
2020: 0.9 Clearances/game, No RB50's at all, 3.3 I50/game
Clearances down, no RB50's means he's not getting up the ground at all. I really think as Cartlon's list has strengthened his potential for Mid time has lessened. He's a no from me.
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