Position 2021: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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I’m the same! So this is definitely a lesson learned from experience. Just feels like it compromises your season so much not having the best two and therefore having to build your trading strategy around getting them in.
Plus inevitably you can get premiums on the cheap across other lines due to injury etc so if you have the top handful of players you can focus on getting the cheaper ones at the right moments instead having to aggressively save for the uber promos!
Plus inevitably you can get premiums on the cheap across other lines due to injury etc so if you have the top handful of players you can focus on getting the cheaper ones at the right moments instead having to aggressively save for the uber promos!
This is quite a good point.. how the money is spent is probably the most critical part of the puzzle.
Without seeing an entire team it’s hard to know but I feel most teams have a few “speculative” premos sprinkled in there to have some options.
Safe to say, until we see a clearer picture of the rookie situation it’s hard to know which option makes the most sense.. so my main advice to everyone in this debate would be back your gut whatever it says. It’s better to be wrong after backing yourself in than to go against your gut, be wrong, and be stuck with the feeling that you should have listened to yourself!!
Without seeing an entire team it’s hard to know but I feel most teams have a few “speculative” premos sprinkled in there to have some options.
Safe to say, until we see a clearer picture of the rookie situation it’s hard to know which option makes the most sense.. so my main advice to everyone in this debate would be back your gut whatever it says. It’s better to be wrong after backing yourself in than to go against your gut, be wrong, and be stuck with the feeling that you should have listened to yourself!!
Couple of counter points here...
The biggest flaw with this is being locked into a single player that has to drop and a single player that has to gain at a very high rate. You've got two outcomes required on two variables. On the alternative you've got all rookies to generate the early cash and all the other players you didn't pick to present the value upgrade. There is a chance that Gawn starts slow and drops, there's a far better chance that one of Danger, Dunkley, Marshall, Martin, Walters, Laird, Whitfield, Lloyd, etc drops as much or more. There's, I would argue, a good chance Preuss makes solid money but the same applies to a lot of other options that are as cheap or cheaper, many who could even have genuine potential to be keepers.
The unlucky outcome of a Preuss injury/suspension/dropping is catastrophic. The alternative of Gawn probably funds the first upgrade elsewhere.
The value of the trades is the other cost. 2 trades is a reasonable minimum, 3 trades is probably more likely. That's a lot.
Having said that, if Preuss looks incredible I absolutely agree Gawn is overpriced to start and I'm the kind of fool who will back against him and go chasing the midprice madness!
This is a pretty misleading stat. The Grundy game is impressive but I'd hope to have a better percentage than that against English and the Dockers (as a 2nd ruck especially).
In 2019 there was only the one game, admittedly it's the standout example of why to pick Preuss, where he wasn't going against the 2nd rucks and outside of Goldstein at North it was a who's who of bad rucks.
2017 with North is the same story really, he was the 2nd ruck.
Not to takeaway from him, the few games he's been the 1st ruck he's scored excellently, but that particular stat is certainly a bit misleading because of his role.
Look forward to seeing how he goes in the preseason though. He certainly makes things interesting if he could be a Witts or Lycett type scorer and I do think with his play style that's a solid chance.
The biggest flaw with this is being locked into a single player that has to drop and a single player that has to gain at a very high rate. You've got two outcomes required on two variables. On the alternative you've got all rookies to generate the early cash and all the other players you didn't pick to present the value upgrade. There is a chance that Gawn starts slow and drops, there's a far better chance that one of Danger, Dunkley, Marshall, Martin, Walters, Laird, Whitfield, Lloyd, etc drops as much or more. There's, I would argue, a good chance Preuss makes solid money but the same applies to a lot of other options that are as cheap or cheaper, many who could even have genuine potential to be keepers.
The unlucky outcome of a Preuss injury/suspension/dropping is catastrophic. The alternative of Gawn probably funds the first upgrade elsewhere.
The value of the trades is the other cost. 2 trades is a reasonable minimum, 3 trades is probably more likely. That's a lot.
Having said that, if Preuss looks incredible I absolutely agree Gawn is overpriced to start and I'm the kind of fool who will back against him and go chasing the midprice madness!
This is a pretty misleading stat. The Grundy game is impressive but I'd hope to have a better percentage than that against English and the Dockers (as a 2nd ruck especially).
In 2019 there was only the one game, admittedly it's the standout example of why to pick Preuss, where he wasn't going against the 2nd rucks and outside of Goldstein at North it was a who's who of bad rucks.
2017 with North is the same story really, he was the 2nd ruck.
Not to takeaway from him, the few games he's been the 1st ruck he's scored excellently, but that particular stat is certainly a bit misleading because of his role.
Look forward to seeing how he goes in the preseason though. He certainly makes things interesting if he could be a Witts or Lycett type scorer and I do think with his play style that's a solid chance.
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Gawn only my 2nd pick after Treacy 
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After using about 5 trades in the ruck last year and all that Naismith fiasco which probably was what killed my season, I'm going to keep it simple. Set and forget Grawndy combo this season and look for value on other lines.
.After using about 5 trades in the ruck last year and all that Naismith fiasco which probably was what killed my season, I'm going to keep it simple. Set and forget Grawndy combo this season and look for value on other lines.
R2 wide open for my team. Not at all sold on Grundy after the way he finished last season.
Preuss obviously makes an overall team look ridiculously good. Marshall at R2 helps and gives you back up if he is injured or a bust as you can swap him to the bwst mid pricer on basically any line.
That said i haven't seen enough of a body of him to consider him at his price. At 250k i would have whacked him in without thinking.
What do those picking him think he needs to do in order to be a good pick?
That said i haven't seen enough of a body of him to consider him at his price. At 250k i would have whacked him in without thinking.
What do those picking him think he needs to do in order to be a good pick?
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So much swings on how many rookies there are who we think will go 60-65+ and won't be dropped round 2.
Right now, you can whack Cockatoo on field, Wehr and Whitemore are going 70 in our backlines. Phillips, Powell and maybe Valente are all best 22. Take away 4 of them or have them playing because a starter is injured rd 1 and there are going to be a lot of holes to fill - which will take Gawn cash to do so imo
BUT
throw a blanket over those guys and tell me they can be locked in - and basically Gawn suddenly becomes a no brainer
Right now, you can whack Cockatoo on field, Wehr and Whitemore are going 70 in our backlines. Phillips, Powell and maybe Valente are all best 22. Take away 4 of them or have them playing because a starter is injured rd 1 and there are going to be a lot of holes to fill - which will take Gawn cash to do so imo
BUT
throw a blanket over those guys and tell me they can be locked in - and basically Gawn suddenly becomes a no brainer
One question for everyone thinking Gawn will drop in price.. how low do you think he'll drop and at what round?
If the plan is just to grab him when he drops, there are a few risks.
- Have you made enough case/can you free up enough cash to get him then?
- Will getting him mean you can't fix another issue (injured/suspended player, rookies being dropped, etc)
- Will you miss another premium that everyone else gets at a steal (say, someone who was injured in Q1 and drops 100k just from that)
The stars really need to align to be able to bring someone at that price in.. it's similar with a player like Lloyd who hovers around 600k and becomes a nightmare to bring in.. similarly those who didn't start Neale or Petracca were faced with a huge hurdle to get them in (I for one, couldn't end up collecting all the "must haves").
I'm not sure the idea of Preuss -> Gawn at some stage works, there is too many variables there and that gap won't get close enough.. so I would say before locking in the premise that you'll get Gawn cheaper during the season, you need to work out a solid strategy for how you will do that depending on when he drops and by how much.
If the plan is just to grab him when he drops, there are a few risks.
- Have you made enough case/can you free up enough cash to get him then?
- Will getting him mean you can't fix another issue (injured/suspended player, rookies being dropped, etc)
- Will you miss another premium that everyone else gets at a steal (say, someone who was injured in Q1 and drops 100k just from that)
The stars really need to align to be able to bring someone at that price in.. it's similar with a player like Lloyd who hovers around 600k and becomes a nightmare to bring in.. similarly those who didn't start Neale or Petracca were faced with a huge hurdle to get them in (I for one, couldn't end up collecting all the "must haves").
I'm not sure the idea of Preuss -> Gawn at some stage works, there is too many variables there and that gap won't get close enough.. so I would say before locking in the premise that you'll get Gawn cheaper during the season, you need to work out a solid strategy for how you will do that depending on when he drops and by how much.
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This is a great point. Even if the planets align and you have the kitty ready to go and Preuss has topped out at the exact time that Gawn has bottomed out, who's to say that you aren't hit with an injury in that same week that requires your attention to be fixed. If enough rookies come through then I'll have absolutely zero hesitation in starting Gawn and Grundy.
Personally I'm expecting Gawn to score similarly to 2018 and 2019, which would hopefully see him drop to about 650k at some point between RD6 and RD12, depending on where the big scores and (relatively) small scores pop up.
I think the idea that expensive players are impossible to trade for is one of the self-defeating myths of SC. You just have to plan for it. Things move slowly in trading land, so you know two weeks ahead of time when the spike or dip in price is going to come so you just have to make sure you leave enough in the bank to make it work.
I would also add that if you have Marshall in your team then you don't need the Preuss spike to coincide with the Gawn dip. You can sell Preuss to someone on another line when the time is right, and then get Gawn later when the time is right.
I think the idea that expensive players are impossible to trade for is one of the self-defeating myths of SC. You just have to plan for it. Things move slowly in trading land, so you know two weeks ahead of time when the spike or dip in price is going to come so you just have to make sure you leave enough in the bank to make it work.
I would also add that if you have Marshall in your team then you don't need the Preuss spike to coincide with the Gawn dip. You can sell Preuss to someone on another line when the time is right, and then get Gawn later when the time is right.
I agree that it's not impossible.. it's just extremely tricky and requires a lot of things to line up. Even using a 2 week lead time to create the bank you need is no simple thing as you're potentially culling rookies early or moving on the ones you're relying on for on field scoring. Couple that with the fact that you're probably selling 2(?) rookies to create the bank to trade Preuss (or a similar maxed rookie) that's 3 trades.. meaning you're using 10% of your season trades to bring in one player.
To break that down.. you're using ~3 trades to save 100k (getting Gawn at 650k instead of 750k).
For that to be a win you would need to spend the 450k saved going Preuss over Gawn extremely well and definitely needs to be on a keeper as you probably can't afford a trade or 2 to fix that player as well. Not an impossible ask, and there are probably options that in hindsight we'd look back at and go "yep, Preuss + mystery player was a genius move".. I'm just not sure who the mystery players would be!
To break that down.. you're using ~3 trades to save 100k (getting Gawn at 650k instead of 750k).
For that to be a win you would need to spend the 450k saved going Preuss over Gawn extremely well and definitely needs to be on a keeper as you probably can't afford a trade or 2 to fix that player as well. Not an impossible ask, and there are probably options that in hindsight we'd look back at and go "yep, Preuss + mystery player was a genius move".. I'm just not sure who the mystery players would be!
I think he's overpriced but he's proven to not drop in price much for an extended period now. That's an established form line that you kind of have to back, imo, which doesn't make it a guarantee by any means!
There are a few factors to consider for mine.
The first is Preuss, I'm not sold he's the right call (I reckon Marshall at R2 and the midprice in the backs or forwards may make more sense). Realistically if Preuss was a midfielder, would you be picking him? I haven't heard a single person say Preuss can be a keeper. You're taking a genuine midpricer with next to no chance of being a keeper, aka you're most likely sacrificing cash generation and trades.
I actually don't dislike Preuss, if he was an R/F I'd 100% be starting him but he's a R only. Can you make more cash from a 100k rookie elsewhere? Can you get a keeper for 300k at another position? Definitely needs consideration.
Second is the value of trades. Let's say you can close it to 150k, that's still a good rookie and two trades to get Gawn. Can they be better deployed? That's the best case. If Preuss flops (the disaster that is possible) and/or Gawn just rolls on, that suddenly could be 250k+ and 3 trades. At 10% of your moves, all required in the most important trading period, it can require enormous sacrifice to fulfill, only takes a couple of injuries in that period as well and you're looking at week 10 and a bunch of lost upgrades just to get Gawn in.
Having said all that, I'm absolutely considering Preuss. If he can average 95 then he comes into consideration as a cash cow, he's a high risk one because of the lack of contingency plans and he absolutely forces you into Marshall as a starting pick (basically spending a chunk of that saving) but Preuss can make great cash. Gawn can get injured, he can fail, not starting him can be a masterstroke.
I've had a couple of drafts without Gawn.
I think if you don't have Gawn, Marshall is a lock, you have to have him. The only flaw with your planning is that injuries, suspension and players getting dropped, must have rookies and the like all happen. Sure you can try and plan but it's a very difficult plan to pull off. I say this as someone who used his last 3 trades to finally get Neale in round 15, just so I could say I got him, last year after planning to upgrade to him in round 6 or 7 and then planning to get him every week after that... When it starts taking 3 trades and 2 weeks to get it done you're introducing a lot of possible variables into the best of plans.
It can absolutely be done, I haven't even thought about picking Lloyd down back who is similarly overpriced, imo, but would like to have him in my side and will plan for it but it's certainly a difficult move to actually pull off.
There are a few factors to consider for mine.
The first is Preuss, I'm not sold he's the right call (I reckon Marshall at R2 and the midprice in the backs or forwards may make more sense). Realistically if Preuss was a midfielder, would you be picking him? I haven't heard a single person say Preuss can be a keeper. You're taking a genuine midpricer with next to no chance of being a keeper, aka you're most likely sacrificing cash generation and trades.
I actually don't dislike Preuss, if he was an R/F I'd 100% be starting him but he's a R only. Can you make more cash from a 100k rookie elsewhere? Can you get a keeper for 300k at another position? Definitely needs consideration.
Second is the value of trades. Let's say you can close it to 150k, that's still a good rookie and two trades to get Gawn. Can they be better deployed? That's the best case. If Preuss flops (the disaster that is possible) and/or Gawn just rolls on, that suddenly could be 250k+ and 3 trades. At 10% of your moves, all required in the most important trading period, it can require enormous sacrifice to fulfill, only takes a couple of injuries in that period as well and you're looking at week 10 and a bunch of lost upgrades just to get Gawn in.
Having said all that, I'm absolutely considering Preuss. If he can average 95 then he comes into consideration as a cash cow, he's a high risk one because of the lack of contingency plans and he absolutely forces you into Marshall as a starting pick (basically spending a chunk of that saving) but Preuss can make great cash. Gawn can get injured, he can fail, not starting him can be a masterstroke.
I've had a couple of drafts without Gawn.
I think if you don't have Gawn, Marshall is a lock, you have to have him. The only flaw with your planning is that injuries, suspension and players getting dropped, must have rookies and the like all happen. Sure you can try and plan but it's a very difficult plan to pull off. I say this as someone who used his last 3 trades to finally get Neale in round 15, just so I could say I got him, last year after planning to upgrade to him in round 6 or 7 and then planning to get him every week after that... When it starts taking 3 trades and 2 weeks to get it done you're introducing a lot of possible variables into the best of plans.
It can absolutely be done, I haven't even thought about picking Lloyd down back who is similarly overpriced, imo, but would like to have him in my side and will plan for it but it's certainly a difficult move to actually pull off.