Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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Think he's a superstar. Looking at his first two seasons.. 22 games @ 93.1 in rookie year, followed by 22 games at 103.4. The latter against the backdrop of the contract/trade issue.
I gave real consideration to starting him last year. I remember a great Rowsus post that pumped his tyres a bit. Didn't end up taking him and obviously a pretty good result with him going at 96. I feel like a year back home, now a year in the WC season - he can explode this year. Stacks of CPs, kicks goals, super durable. I'll go to the bank with 22/110
I gave real consideration to starting him last year. I remember a great Rowsus post that pumped his tyres a bit. Didn't end up taking him and obviously a pretty good result with him going at 96. I feel like a year back home, now a year in the WC season - he can explode this year. Stacks of CPs, kicks goals, super durable. I'll go to the bank with 22/110
So we've got a player who is 26 years old, has averaged 120+ for 3 consecutive years and has missed only 3 games in 4 years (and been thrown around from wing to forward to the middle during that time to boot).
That's Scott "Dependlebury" territory, who at 26 put up his 4th 120+ season and had missed only 5 games in 4 years. His next two seasons aged 27 and 28 went at 22/116 and 22/118.
I see lots of comments like "can't trust any Dogs mids", but even with the inclusion of another strong player into the side, how could Jack Macrae be anything other than a good pick? Are we genuinely lured away by Fyfe and Jelly types as alternatives, who never even play out a full season?
That's Scott "Dependlebury" territory, who at 26 put up his 4th 120+ season and had missed only 5 games in 4 years. His next two seasons aged 27 and 28 went at 22/116 and 22/118.
I see lots of comments like "can't trust any Dogs mids", but even with the inclusion of another strong player into the side, how could Jack Macrae be anything other than a good pick? Are we genuinely lured away by Fyfe and Jelly types as alternatives, who never even play out a full season?
I do think the concerns are somewhat justified, his scoring when playing on the wing is not as strong as he basically stops tackling and loses the CP to an extent and his coach is a complete lunatic who likes to do unpredictable things for the sake of it. Macrae is the one in that midfield group who makes the most sense on the wing as he's actually good at it. Treloar can run but he can't kick and he makes more sense inside as a result. Dunkley is likely to be placated for staying with midfield minutes. Bont has to play there after last year (Bevo aside) and Smith has the potential to be the best of the lot and should be getting a prime role. Libba is inside only.
Ultimately with Macrae I think the downside potential is higher than the upside potential, realistically I don't think he's going to cost you more later in the season than he does now and I think there are enough decent reasons to think he'll be cheaper. His durability also makes him a really strong upgrade target.
He's also one of the guys whose ratio doesn't quite stack up for mine and I think he was a benefactor of the scaling irregularities to an extent, not massively but I think he's gained a 4 or 5 points on his average. I think we already saw a bit of impact from Smith increasing his role and then particularly Bont towards the end of the season when Macrae did fall away.
Still think he's a safe top 15 scorer type though, you shouldn't need a trade on him as a starting pick which is valuable in and of itself and I do think that the couple of guys who do have more upside potential than him also have more downside risks (durability, unproven, etc).
Ultimately with Macrae I think the downside potential is higher than the upside potential, realistically I don't think he's going to cost you more later in the season than he does now and I think there are enough decent reasons to think he'll be cheaper. His durability also makes him a really strong upgrade target.
He's also one of the guys whose ratio doesn't quite stack up for mine and I think he was a benefactor of the scaling irregularities to an extent, not massively but I think he's gained a 4 or 5 points on his average. I think we already saw a bit of impact from Smith increasing his role and then particularly Bont towards the end of the season when Macrae did fall away.
Still think he's a safe top 15 scorer type though, you shouldn't need a trade on him as a starting pick which is valuable in and of itself and I do think that the couple of guys who do have more upside potential than him also have more downside risks (durability, unproven, etc).
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Not the perfect thread to post this but seems the best - can we all just take a minute to remember that in the last normal season (2019) there were 7 mids who went 110+. Neale, Cripps, Treloar, Fyfe, Jelly, Macre, Bont.
Just because a kid is getting more midfield time doesn't mean they are going 110+ or anywhere near keeper level.
Just because a kid is getting more midfield time doesn't mean they are going 110+ or anywhere near keeper level.
Does anyone have any good mail on Gaff? Been having a long look at him.. last 3 years:
2020 - 106.2 avg and played every game
2019 - 107.4 avg and missed 2 games
2018 - 108.2 avg and missed 3 games
Super consistent for a guy who is at 570k.. should get a mini bounce from going back to full length quarters given his running ability so would expect he gets back to around an 108 point avg this year at a minimum, but is there some potential in the reduced interchange rotations keeping him out there longer? I'm thinking the elite fitness guys will have less bench minutes as they'll go to the more burst type players. Hasn't hit super premo status and may not this season.. but around 110 isn't outside the realms of possibility given he's had a few years knocking on the door of hitting that..
2020 - 106.2 avg and played every game
2019 - 107.4 avg and missed 2 games
2018 - 108.2 avg and missed 3 games
Super consistent for a guy who is at 570k.. should get a mini bounce from going back to full length quarters given his running ability so would expect he gets back to around an 108 point avg this year at a minimum, but is there some potential in the reduced interchange rotations keeping him out there longer? I'm thinking the elite fitness guys will have less bench minutes as they'll go to the more burst type players. Hasn't hit super premo status and may not this season.. but around 110 isn't outside the realms of possibility given he's had a few years knocking on the door of hitting that..
The thing that stands out to me is that every one of those groups is over represented and pretty much all by the same amount (1.25 for 90/95 and 1.5-6 for rest)
Given how price changes work it's safe to assume that if the groups as a whole fall back towards the more traditional numbers then basically all will hold their price if they score relative to last season.
I think we're still at the same point of trying to pick out guys who have been scaled disproportionately to their performance. I think it's safe to say that basically everyone is 5-7 points overpriced in this category and probably most of the others on the way down. Essentially anyone you think can match or beat the starting average should actually make value doing it. Those who fall 5 or so probably just break even and those who drop more are the ones who are going to lose cash fast.
The other contributing factor is shorter quarters meant more minutes for the better players, if Neale can play 15m a quarter in the middle, that doesn't change if the quarter length changes and their piece of the pie gets bigger as a result. Will the reduced interchanges cancel this out to an extent or will this be a huge change, if one believes this to be the case then you'd probably be looking for the 2nd tier midfielders who would have more minutes available.
Not sure if anyone has it but a breakdown of minutes/TOG% changes for players could be super useful.
I love the optimism that he'll make it to the byes!
Given how price changes work it's safe to assume that if the groups as a whole fall back towards the more traditional numbers then basically all will hold their price if they score relative to last season.
I think we're still at the same point of trying to pick out guys who have been scaled disproportionately to their performance. I think it's safe to say that basically everyone is 5-7 points overpriced in this category and probably most of the others on the way down. Essentially anyone you think can match or beat the starting average should actually make value doing it. Those who fall 5 or so probably just break even and those who drop more are the ones who are going to lose cash fast.
The other contributing factor is shorter quarters meant more minutes for the better players, if Neale can play 15m a quarter in the middle, that doesn't change if the quarter length changes and their piece of the pie gets bigger as a result. Will the reduced interchanges cancel this out to an extent or will this be a huge change, if one believes this to be the case then you'd probably be looking for the 2nd tier midfielders who would have more minutes available.
Not sure if anyone has it but a breakdown of minutes/TOG% changes for players could be super useful.
I love the optimism that he'll make it to the byes!