Gutsroy - this is impressive stuff and probably above my pay grade to fully comprehend all the working (read I am not smart enough to interpret all the data!).
Couple of thoughts here if Rowsus is reviewing this:
1) I did some simple return on invested capital calculation comparing GnR teams and then including midpricers. Clearly the midpricer can lift the ROIC early in the season as they will give a better yield than a real premium, however, if the mid pricer was not a keeper then the ROIC fell behind over time given the trade needed (as that trade can be used to generate greater gains during the season). If the mid pricer failed it was very detrimental to the final team ROIC. ROIC is just points yielded as a % of investment.
2) It works best the more $$ you put into few players, hence picking the most expensive premiums.
3). The real life side now kicks in. It does require the premium to give an expected yield and not drop off. So I do take into consideration Rowsus like #10104 where not all players back up.
4) It does need the necessary rookies to fill the remaining slots.
5). To point 3, picking the 2nd tier of premiums if we assume for instance that D5/6 could easily be 5-6 players, I target the one that has an injury during the year with a low score, dragging down their value. Whitfield, Stewart in 2020 fit this parameters, long term history and one off injury that would impact scoring once back. Duncan in the mids was so/so, doesn't have quite the history and hence saw a role change post injury I think (partly due to compressed schedule).
On point 5, this is why it is dangerous when picking your starting side it is flawed to target someone who will be an M8. There will likely be some injured player who you can pick up during the season for that role sub $500k. I would like to take credit for this, however, Rowsus pointed out this several years back.
Good to see point 1 and 2 held up about premiums generally holding up. Having read exactly 10104 posts by Rowsus over time (LOL) I do follow many of his workings such as being mindful of players who have had 20 point jump ups (think from below 102 prior year).
Such as, looking at the post above for defender, Laird, Lloyd met the definition of a starting team member as they have some longevity in top tier and I cannot see a change of role for them that is negative.
Note my focus is league so I am aiming to have highest scoring team over last 4 weeks. Hope this helps the discussion and thanks for the charts.
Couple of thoughts here if Rowsus is reviewing this:
1) I did some simple return on invested capital calculation comparing GnR teams and then including midpricers. Clearly the midpricer can lift the ROIC early in the season as they will give a better yield than a real premium, however, if the mid pricer was not a keeper then the ROIC fell behind over time given the trade needed (as that trade can be used to generate greater gains during the season). If the mid pricer failed it was very detrimental to the final team ROIC. ROIC is just points yielded as a % of investment.
2) It works best the more $$ you put into few players, hence picking the most expensive premiums.
3). The real life side now kicks in. It does require the premium to give an expected yield and not drop off. So I do take into consideration Rowsus like #10104 where not all players back up.
4) It does need the necessary rookies to fill the remaining slots.
5). To point 3, picking the 2nd tier of premiums if we assume for instance that D5/6 could easily be 5-6 players, I target the one that has an injury during the year with a low score, dragging down their value. Whitfield, Stewart in 2020 fit this parameters, long term history and one off injury that would impact scoring once back. Duncan in the mids was so/so, doesn't have quite the history and hence saw a role change post injury I think (partly due to compressed schedule).
On point 5, this is why it is dangerous when picking your starting side it is flawed to target someone who will be an M8. There will likely be some injured player who you can pick up during the season for that role sub $500k. I would like to take credit for this, however, Rowsus pointed out this several years back.
Good to see point 1 and 2 held up about premiums generally holding up. Having read exactly 10104 posts by Rowsus over time (LOL) I do follow many of his workings such as being mindful of players who have had 20 point jump ups (think from below 102 prior year).
Such as, looking at the post above for defender, Laird, Lloyd met the definition of a starting team member as they have some longevity in top tier and I cannot see a change of role for them that is negative.
Note my focus is league so I am aiming to have highest scoring team over last 4 weeks. Hope this helps the discussion and thanks for the charts.