Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Gutsroy - this is impressive stuff and probably above my pay grade to fully comprehend all the working (read I am not smart enough to interpret all the data!).

Couple of thoughts here if Rowsus is reviewing this:

1) I did some simple return on invested capital calculation comparing GnR teams and then including midpricers. Clearly the midpricer can lift the ROIC early in the season as they will give a better yield than a real premium, however, if the mid pricer was not a keeper then the ROIC fell behind over time given the trade needed (as that trade can be used to generate greater gains during the season). If the mid pricer failed it was very detrimental to the final team ROIC. ROIC is just points yielded as a % of investment.

2) It works best the more $$ you put into few players, hence picking the most expensive premiums.

3). The real life side now kicks in. It does require the premium to give an expected yield and not drop off. So I do take into consideration Rowsus like #10104 where not all players back up.

4) It does need the necessary rookies to fill the remaining slots.

5). To point 3, picking the 2nd tier of premiums if we assume for instance that D5/6 could easily be 5-6 players, I target the one that has an injury during the year with a low score, dragging down their value. Whitfield, Stewart in 2020 fit this parameters, long term history and one off injury that would impact scoring once back. Duncan in the mids was so/so, doesn't have quite the history and hence saw a role change post injury I think (partly due to compressed schedule).

On point 5, this is why it is dangerous when picking your starting side it is flawed to target someone who will be an M8. There will likely be some injured player who you can pick up during the season for that role sub $500k. I would like to take credit for this, however, Rowsus pointed out this several years back.

Good to see point 1 and 2 held up about premiums generally holding up. Having read exactly 10104 posts by Rowsus over time (LOL) I do follow many of his workings such as being mindful of players who have had 20 point jump ups (think from below 102 prior year).

Such as, looking at the post above for defender, Laird, Lloyd met the definition of a starting team member as they have some longevity in top tier and I cannot see a change of role for them that is negative.

Note my focus is league so I am aiming to have highest scoring team over last 4 weeks. Hope this helps the discussion and thanks for the charts.
This is a really succinct summary (y)
 
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Question RE captain pick price

Every year we all aim to pick two captain options that we feel will be the two highest scoring players. They are usually two of the highest scoring (and most expensive) players from the prior year, and we are paying top dollar hoping that they maintain their average. This worked well with Grundy, Gawn, and Macrae for the past few years, Neale in 19/20, Titch in 17/18, Danger in 16/17/18.

This year though, we are seeing the two highest averaging options from 2020 (Gawn and Neale) being considered overpriced by approx 10 ppg (I’d assume that’s what most people think). There are a number of articles highlighting that the scaling distribution and total game time in 2020 resulted in higher scoring by top end players. This makes 2021 potential different to any other SC year when picking your starting squad.

With a reversion to more and longer games, is it a sound strategy to pay top dollar for your two captains, if you are assuming a 10 ppg drop?

Additional notes for my thinking. I’m assuming Gawn averages 128, Neale averages 123, Grundy averages 120, Macrae averages 118.

If you think only Gawn and Neale are dropping, which your notes tend to indicate, then that pair makes little sense.

If you think all the premiums will drop proportionately then they're still clear of the pack and make a lot of sense.

Basically do you think the whole market is overpriced or just those two players?

Honestly, not sure they make a lot of sense if you think they're an isolated 10ppg drop pairing and the others aren't as your notes would indicate.

I say this as someone who didn't start Neale last year because I was pretty sure he was overpriced and would drop and who still has burn marks from applying the same logic to Ablett when he averaged 132 and then doing it again that year he averaged 129, only to then pay absolute top dollar for him and he hurt his shoulder a month after I traded him in, this game can be so good at reminding us we're idiots some times :)

Pick the best starting picks, captaincy for me is closer to byes in importance than my projections. It's a tie breaker on spending money but the reality is if you're starting Grundy and Cripps, you've got two strong captain options already, every additional option is just more choice but you only get two looks a week, if you're starting Grundy and Cripps and you don't think you've got two captain options, maybe re-think those picks as well!

I say all of this as someone who thinks that both Gawn and Neale can sustain their averages give or take a few points although I'd love an indicator on how Neale's preseason has gone pretty soon!
 

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Great answer Rowsus

Whilst Rowell only played a few games, even a smaller sample is the tagging job he received vs Geelong and only had 1-2 disposals before he injured himself midway through the quarter. Had him in my team until I focused on this,

Cerra is one that interests me, 101 2nd half as you said, now 1st rotation for mids rather than a wing/mid role - any thoughts or analysis appreciated.
Cerra - Mid - $484,800
SCS2021 Gfb1.png

As we said earlier, a SC average of 101 in the 2nd half of the season. Interesting looking at those numbers. The Disposals went up, Clearances went up, a little, but things like Tackles went down, and his CPR stayed about the same. His CP's were 41.6% of disposals in the first part of the season, and 41.2% in the 2nd half. He scored close enough to 10% higher when Freo wins, in both halves of the season.
There's something unsatisfactory in those 2nd half of the season figures, but I'm having trouble putting my finger on it. I think I was expecting his CPR to go up a bit, with more Mid time, his tackles as well, and even his I50's and Rb50's could have gone a little higher.
At his price, he needs to score at a Keeper level, and he's striking me as, if he filled a decent M7/8 he has done well. The problem is, I don't want an M7/8 in my starting team, unless he's a real bargain.
 

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Hey Rowsus, it’s been a while since I’ve posted but I’ve had this question on my mind for a while.

I see a lot of people comment that you almost have to start the most expensive players because “even if they drop, you’ll need to use at least 2 trades to bring them in”.

What are your thoughts on this idea that it’s a much worse thing to use 2 downgrade trades to bring in 1 star (2 down, 1 up), vs the typical aim of 1 downgrade per premium added (1 down, 1 up)?

For me the math makes little sense, as it’s assumed that if I’ve not started one of these 2 trade players (like Max Gawn) that I’ve used the money to either get multiple premium/keepers, or a mid priced type (like Pruess) who, if things go well, should only require 1 down, 1 up. The other part of the math that doesn’t make sense to me is prices. I’ve seen people say it’s ok if the players average drops by, say, 10 points, because of the whole two trades thing. With a player that expensive, you’re effectively locking in a $100kish loss with that mindset, in a game where you are trying to maximise total squad value and points.

The only reason, in my mind, to start a player that is so expensive and could drop, is captain scores. For me, you pick your two captains and all rookies before building the rest of your side, so it’s ok if the reason is captain, but not ok if the reason is somehow saving trades. Am I missing something though as I’d prefer to be wrong in this forum than in my SC team.

Cheers and I hope you are well.
I eagerly await Rowsus' reply, but I completely agree with most of the above...
Pick the super-premo priced players you like (eg. $650k+ types) for your captain choices and then treat the rest like "normal' premiums (almost - caveat below): Would you pick a premium who you felt strongly would drop their average by 10 over the season? Probably not: you could save 100k and pick a player who will increase their average and get the same output.

The caveat to the above comes more as a risk-based thing and having the right players in your team at the end. Take Lachie Neale for example: Even if his average dropped by 10 he is still hands-down a super-elite midfielder, probably top 3 or 4 by season's end. So you can consider the starting price inclusive of a "tax" you pay to almost guarantee a top player on the line, even if his average drops. A more speculative pick like Adams or Walsh doesn't have the tax, but you pay instead in inherent risk: you may end up with a player who averages 110+ or you may end up with a 100 average list clogger that requires a trade.

So for picking the super-premo types, for me the captain angle works, and the 'risk tax' angle works but outside of that, I don't pick players (on purpose! It still happens by accident an awful lot :ROFLMAO:) who I think will drop in average by 10 or more.

Hey Jurn Stern, Leroy,
I agree with about 90% of what you say here.
Last point first, and this is just a personal preference. Picking your starting team: Pick your 2 or 3 Captain choices, and don't even look at the prices. Getting Captain's right early is gold! Then choose your Ruck strategy. Set and forget, R1 and value, double value, whatever it is you need to decide where you're going with your Rucks as your 2nd step. Then Rookies, then fill your team. Just my preference for picking your team.
To my mind, you shouldn't be thinking along the lines of "Well, I'll have to get Gawn + Grundy + Lloyd + Neale etc now, otherwise, how will I get them later?". You should just be thinking, how can I best use my $10,000,000? Ideally you want the Keepers you started with to not lose too much value, but this is more about "protecting" your position, than the actual team value. If one or two of your Keepers are losing too much value, then you have a double edged problem. You're not getting the return on your money that you need to, and other Coaches now have the opportunity to bring that player in at a much reduced price, to close that POD you have against them. This comes down to one of my catch cries at this time of the year: Have/Set reasonable expectations! Let's break it down into an overly simple scenario.
You choose 13 Keepers and spend $7,500,000 on them (ave $577k)
You choose 17 Rookies and spend $2,500,000 on them (ave $147k)
From the price you paid for the Keepers, if they can score close to last seasons average, you get 7,500,000 / 5,400 = 1,389 points.
Let's assume you average 65 points from your 9 on field Rookies = 65 x 9 = 585
Your Captain scores 130, so your early scores are 1,389 + 585 + 130 = 2,104.
If you look at your team as two separate divisions, then you can see, the only detriment to your side, if the $7,500,000 division starts to lose too much value is, that you aren't getting near the 1,400 points you need to, to be competitive with the well chosen sides. Aside from that, the actual value of those 13 players is largely irrelevant, as unless there is an injury, or a real lack in starting judgement, you intend to keep them. Their value is a refelection of their output, that is all.
Let's look at expensive players over the last 3 seasons, that have dropped a lot of value by the end of Round 8.
2018
Dangerfield - opened $749,800 - Rnd 8 $604,500 (-$145,300) - sitting on 7/115
Martin D - opened $656,000 - Rnd 8 $519,400 (-$136,600) - sitting on 8/108
2019
Dangerfield - opened $660,500 - Rnd 8 $493,900 (-$164,600) - sitting on 8/99
Macrae - opened $689,700 - Rnd 8 $574,000 (-$115,700) - sitting on 8/117
2020
Cripps - opened $635,900 - Rnd 8 $478,100 (-$157,800) - sitting on 8/96
Whitfield opened $604,100 - Rnd 8 $492,000 (-$112,100) - sitting on 8/90
There are various degrees of disasters there, but ones like 2019 Macrae, while unsavoury, are not a disaster.

I've veered slightly off the track here. The bottom line is, I agree with you, that the most expensive players aren't must haves, as you will supposedly find it too hard to get them in later. The only must have, is a decent return from your largest expenditures.
If your 13 Keeper $7,500,000 divisions is producing 1,500+ points/Round, you are travelling well, and you will find a way to get the Gawn's or Neale's, or whoever you are missing, into your team.
If your 13 Keeper $7,500,000 division is producing 1,250-1,300 points/Round, then you've probably got bigger problems to fix, before you start worrying about the big ticket items you are missing.
It's all relative. If you are travelling well, you have the trades and the time to target the biggies. If you're not travelling well, it's more likely due to some poor picks you have included, rather than big tickets you have left out, unless you left them all out!
 

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what are your thoughts of tom green doing what Fyfe,oliver and bontempelli did in their 2nd years?thanks in advance
Tom Green season 1 averages - 6 games
15 Disps at 1 K to 2 Hb ratio, Cl 3, CPR 58%, DE 64%, Tackles 2.3

Nat Fyfe season 1 - 18 games
16 Disps at 1 K to 0.67 Hb ratio, Cl 1.7, CPR 45%, DE 60%, Tackles 3.0

Clayton Oliver season 1 - 13 games
19 Disps at 1 K to 2.3 Hb ratio, Cl 4.1, CPR 49%, DE 77%, Tackles 4.8

Marcus Bontempelli season 1 - 16 games
16 Disps at 1 K to 1 Hb ratio, Cl 2.2, CPR 47%, DE 67%, Tackles 3.4

Just the fact that he has played so few games, and that GWS are so SLOW to give their young guys an opportunity, I'd have to bet against him doing as well as the other 3 did, in their 2nd seasons.
 
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Cerra - Mid - $484,800
View attachment 25984

As we said earlier, a SC average of 101 in the 2nd half of the season. Interesting looking at those numbers. The Disposals went up, Clearances went up, a little, but things like Tackles went down, and his CPR stayed about the same. His CP's were 41.6% of disposals in the first part of the season, and 41.2% in the 2nd half. He scored close enough to 10% higher wins, in both halves of the season.
There's something unsatisfactory in those 2nd half of the season figures, but I'm having trouble putting my finger on it. I think I was expecting his CPR to go up a bit, with more Mid time, his tackles as well, and even his I50's and Rb50's could have gone a little higher.
At his price, he needs to score at a Keeper level, and he's striking me as, if he filled a decent M7/8 he has done well. The problem is, I don't want an M7/8 in my starting team, unless he's a real bargain.
Perfect, thanks Rowsus. Love the break down split, interesting although maybe not surprising TOG and DE down. Agree, would have hoped CPR would have lifted. Had some concerns he maybe doesnt have quite the inside game to go 105-110.

Guessing if backing him his mid time vs other positions time you would be hoping it is up as in 1st rotation and that he gets there in total disposals.

Not sure what his tank is like, 78pct TOG in short quarters is an amber light. Currently out of side and watching if I push with Cripps Rowell Walsh. Any concerns and will upgrade to Gaff who should benefit from longer quarters.
 
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If you think only Gawn and Neale are dropping, which your notes tend to indicate, then that pair makes little sense.

If you think all the premiums will drop proportionately then they're still clear of the pack and make a lot of sense.

Basically do you think the whole market is overpriced or just those two players?

Honestly, not sure they make a lot of sense if you think they're an isolated 10ppg drop pairing and the others aren't as your notes would indicate.

I say this as someone who didn't start Neale last year because I was pretty sure he was overpriced and would drop and who still has burn marks from applying the same logic to Ablett when he averaged 132 and then doing it again that year he averaged 129, only to then pay absolute top dollar for him and he hurt his shoulder a month after I traded him in, this game can be so good at reminding us we're idiots some times :)

Pick the best starting picks, captaincy for me is closer to byes in importance than my projections. It's a tie breaker on spending money but the reality is if you're starting Grundy and Cripps, you've got two strong captain options already, every additional option is just more choice but you only get two looks a week, if you're starting Grundy and Cripps and you don't think you've got two captain options, maybe re-think those picks as well!

I say all of this as someone who thinks that both Gawn and Neale can sustain their averages give or take a few points although I'd love an indicator on how Neale's preseason has gone pretty soon!
Thanks for the reply again.

I certainly have a feeling that most of the market is overpriced, so it’s not an isolated drop, but I’m generally using additional TOG as my yard stick (or in the case of Trac, unsustainable time in midfield for his tank).

The only players who I think represent some value above $600k are those that had a similar average (within say 5-10ppg) in a prior year (Grundy, Macrae, Bont, Kelly, Danger, Mitchell, Goldy). Now this is a massive oversimplification, as I think some players like Oliver and Trac were always going to improve their scores, but there method of improvement (increased TOG, or unsustainably high mid time) will cause somewhat of a reversion to 2019esc level scoring.

That isn’t to say I think Steele, and Petracca will fall back to there 2019 average, but I think premium scoring in 2019 will be closer to 2021, than 2020 premium scoring would be. I also don’t think all will fall back proportionately, because it easy to see a few players holding or extending their current position. But because I don’t have a good point in my mind for what these players would have averaged in longer games, I’m planning on hedging my bets and waiting until the season has started before moving on the mid premiums that I want.

As you’ve pointed out, I have Grundy and Cripps locked as good options. Outside of that, I’m very unsure at this stage. It won’t be Gawn, Lloyd, Steele, Oliver, Trac, Zerrett, or Hunter that make there way in to my side, but maybe Titch, Danger, Macrae or Neale, as I think those guys have the best shot as maintaining there average.
 

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Not really sure where to place this; it's clearly not on Rowsus's level in terms of advice, more just looking something based on a post by Grainfedbeef in another thread to see if it makes sense. Feel free to move / delete as appropriate and apologies in advance in that case.

Paraphrasing a bit, the basic gist seemed to be that it is better to accept the outlay for the previous years' top scorers (so M1-M3, D1-D3, F1-F3, and I guess essentially R1, R2 given the gulf to the pack of late) all else being equal because if you lock them in, you get their production and can speculate on an (M4-M8) / (D4-D6) /(F4-F6) type from a larger pool of options losing enough value to be a cost-efficient upgrade target to fill out your squad rather than having placed all your eggs in the basket of very specific topliners having to experience a similar drop to become reachable.

Thought it would be interesting to have a look and see how this has panned out in recent years in a generalized (i.e. fast) way.

Only had 2015-2019 data, so it's not all-encompassing, but in terms of ranks year to year, plotting the rank of the top 30 scorers from year n (I didn't have full position data across the years, so I couldn't just take F1 - F6 etc. without doing that manually) vs their rank in year (n+1) - and omitting players who had no value change over rds 1-13 of the following season (reasoning: simply applied screen for long-term injury), what it looked like was as shown below.

The % of players from the top 10 retaining that status the following year wasn't that high, around the 25% mark.
The % of players from the band (11-20) retaining their rank in that band or pushing into the top 10 was considerably higher.
(The rank data were based purely on yearly starting price with no manual adjustments for injury discount, i.e. they're not perfect.)
View attachment 25918
Then had a look at price differentials in year (n+1) for players based on rank in year n:
The price differential was based on (minimum price reached between rd 1 and rd 13 in year (n+1), based on the reasoning that coaches would look to bring the player in at their base price over that run in an ideal world and would ideally look to complete their side by rd 14-odd.
The result is below for bands (1-10), (11-20), (21-30). Ignore the regression line in quantitative terms, I just wanted to see in terms of +/-.)
It looked like there was a pretty reasonable chance of a player in the (1-10) tier shedding 140k+, certainly higher than in the other bands.
But in general, there were significant numbers of players in bands (11-20) and (21-30) shedding something in the 100-150k range.
View attachment 25920

Here, you see the average result across the years per rank (again, some higher losses amongst ranks 1-10) - I guess it's noticeable that the spread is higher in the top band, but that's logical enough, it's basically just the price formula equivalent of gravity:
View attachment 25919
Same thing in % terms, some higher % drops / larger spread for the top band:
View attachment 25924


Looking at the average price differential, that top band overall sheds value at an above average rate (but to be honest, not quite as markedly as I would have thought / hoped). You can see a number of bars clearly above the average in the band 1-10.
View attachment 25921

Then had a quick look at the scoring output in year n+1 of players by rank in year n (again, banded, so 1-10, 11-20, 21-30 etc.)
It was interesting that the top 10 from year n overall seemed to produced slightly less scores in the 115+ range than players in the band (11-20), but ideally captainable scores at a much higher clip in year n+1 (around 40% more often in relative terms). Both bands gapped the rest of the field on that front (I guess, as expected), bands 21-30, 31-40 and 41-50 are a fair bit behind the top 20.
View attachment 25923

There are a lot of factors not accounted for here (also things like the change back to longer quarters, or changes in other rules like kicking in etc.), but for me at first blush based on a really simplified look:

(i) The loss of value of the topliners was there but was not as pronounced compared to the next tiers as I would have thought
(ii) The topliners did tend to yield a higher % of topline captainable scores (which I guess is the argument many use - you're not buying one of them, you're buying two).
(iii) It is definitely possible to pick up fallen topliners at a good discount, the trick is knowing which ones, I guess...
(iv) To do this more properly, you'd have to look at stuff like average score as a % of top score in the line to see rate of drop-off, pool of hopefuls for those M3-M8 type spots etc.

Might have missed something / have plenty of flaws in the thinking, so grain of salt etc., but figured this would be a place where folks might be able to point out flaws etc. Either way, was good Spotfire practice for an hour or so an a more interesting topic than work applications.
Hi Gutsroy,
a very good analysis/post, thank you.
I must admit, I had to read it twice to digest it properly, but it certainly was worth the effort.
 

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Gutsroy - this is impressive stuff and probably above my pay grade to fully comprehend all the working (read I am not smart enough to interpret all the data!).

Couple of thoughts here if Rowsus is reviewing this:

1) I did some simple return on invested capital calculation comparing GnR teams and then including midpricers. Clearly the midpricer can lift the ROIC early in the season as they will give a better yield than a real premium, however, if the mid pricer was not a keeper then the ROIC fell behind over time given the trade needed (as that trade can be used to generate greater gains during the season). If the mid pricer failed it was very detrimental to the final team ROIC. ROIC is just points yielded as a % of investment.

2) It works best the more $$ you put into few players, hence picking the most expensive premiums.

3). The real life side now kicks in. It does require the premium to give an expected yield and not drop off. So I do take into consideration Rowsus like #10104 where not all players back up.

4) It does need the necessary rookies to fill the remaining slots.

5). To point 3, picking the 2nd tier of premiums if we assume for instance that D5/6 could easily be 5-6 players, I target the one that has an injury during the year with a low score, dragging down their value. Whitfield, Stewart in 2020 fit this parameters, long term history and one off injury that would impact scoring once back. Duncan in the mids was so/so, doesn't have quite the history and hence saw a role change post injury I think (partly due to compressed schedule).

On point 5, this is why it is dangerous when picking your starting side it is flawed to target someone who will be an M8. There will likely be some injured player who you can pick up during the season for that role sub $500k. I would like to take credit for this, however, Rowsus pointed out this several years back.

Good to see point 1 and 2 held up about premiums generally holding up. Having read exactly 10104 posts by Rowsus over time (LOL) I do follow many of his workings such as being mindful of players who have had 20 point jump ups (think from below 102 prior year).

Such as, looking at the post above for defender, Laird, Lloyd met the definition of a starting team member as they have some longevity in top tier and I cannot see a change of role for them that is negative.

Note my focus is league so I am aiming to have highest scoring team over last 4 weeks. Hope this helps the discussion and thanks for the charts.
Nicely summarised, GFB.
Pretty much along the lines of my take, so you have saved me some work!
 

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Hey mate - new to AFL SC this year. Just wondering if there are any fallen premium guns that are all but must haves.... and which guys are most likely to bounce back & be a lot better than last year? Cheers
Hey Kit,
"must have" is not a description I use very often, I must admit. I don't see too many must haves across a season, usually 4 or 5 at most. I certainly don't see them often in Fallen Prems, as there is usually a reason they fell. Yes, we can bet against it happening again, but you are also betting they can get back to something like their old ways. Those doubts mean they fail the "must have" tag for me.
Just to give you some thoughts.
Cripps is very popular amongst those looking for FP's this season. His last 3 seasons have been 22/119, 20/117, 17/98. so he's fallen around 20 points on his recent history.
Z Williams 20/94, 20/102, 11/85 will also have some admirers, but keep in mind, he has missed 2+ games every season.
Taranto 21/89, 22/102, 11/85 coming back from injury, and would seem to have some upside.
Players that may be popular as Stepping Stones include Heppel, Ziebel, Daniher and Impey.
 

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Thanks for getting back to me in some good detail, I always like to understand how different people approach picking players, cheers.

I guess for the crux of my question I should have removed any player names, because it’s more about the concept than the individual cases that we talked about. I will show my working for the examples to see if it makes sense, or just sense in my brain. N.B. for the sake of simplicity, I will be making price guesstimates rather than using precise numbers.

The dream is that each premium upgrade will be using two rookies, both who have near maxed out their price (say $300k for a 60 ave rookie) to go one down (to a new $123k rookie) and one up (to in this case, a max $477k premium). Using this model, the 1 up and 1 down strategy is already looking slightly fanciful, as even though we do get some players who score sub-10 in a game a drop below that $477k mark, I’d say most of us have approximately $500-550k as a premium target in mind when we are looking to make upgrades (we need almost $340k maxed price per rookie to afford $550k in a 1 up, 1 down). So let’s say we are getting $340k from our rookies (70 ave), and we’ll start with 6 rookies (for now).


—————— UPGRADE WEEK 1 ——————

TEAM A: With 1 down, you get $217k in the bank, allowing you to go 1 up to a $557k premium ($217k+$340k). Great work Team A for adding premiums to your side, you should be hoping for a 110 average from that player.
460 points for the round for you.

TEAM B: You could also go 2 down with your trades, and get $434k in the bank. No added premiums for you this week.
Still 420 points this round.

—————— UPGRADE WEEK 2 ——————

TEAM A: You know the drill. 1 up, 1 down. You’ve now added two premiums to your squad. On ya!
500 points, nicely done.

TEAM B: You use one of your trades to put that bank to work, and afford an ultra premium up to the value of $774k (no players are priced this highly), and you’d be hoping for 150 points a week at this crazy price. You use your additional trade to send another of your $340k rookies down, and bank $217k cash.
500 points for you.

—————— UPGRADE WEEK 3 ——————

TEAM A: 1 up, 1 down.
You’ve turned six rookies, into three premiums and three rookies in your squad. 540 points a round.

TEAM B: You’re now on the 2 down, 1 up cycle. You sent 1 down last week, so you only need 1 more this week to free up enough upgrade cash. With 1 down, you get back up to $434k in the bank, allowing you to go 1 up to a $774k premium.
You’ve turned six rookies into two ultra premium players and four rookies. 580 points a round for you.

——————————

Now, these are over simplifications. No one has ever played a full season and averaged 150ppg. It’s much more likely these ultra premiums we’d be targeting are the 130+ average types, just leaving extra cash in the bank. It’s also unlikely that many rookies are reaching the $340k mark by the time you look to move them on.

I was trying to (and am still trying to) understand if there is any real value added, starting ultra premiums with the reason that you’ll end up using a 2 down, 1 up to get them. That’s the Team A mindset, we’ve started the ultra premiums and can enjoy 1 up, 1 down.

It’s worth remembering that if you feel 1 up, 1 down is the right way to go, then you likely started with not just the 6 rookies we mentioned to start the example, but an extra 2 ultra premiums and 1 more rookie. You are starting the must have ultra premiums to enable 1 up, 1 down.

So that would mean your opponent (Team B), is starting with 6 rookies and 3 premiums. They used the money at the start to have more premiums in their starting squad.

Now for the disclaimer part. These numbers clearly aren’t real. Rookies rarely go from $123k to $340k, ultra premiums don’t average 150 and don’t cost $774k. I’m just simply exploring the concept of why using more than just two trades to reach an ultra premium is bad. I don’t think it‘s bad to use more than two trades to get a player, and I don’t think it’s bad to start those ultra premiums. I don’t think that there is 1 correct answer now, only with the hindsight we’ll have at the end of 2021.

My closing point on the whole Gawn vs Preuss thing is this: both are right in the different eyes, and both are wrong in different eyes. I’m starting on with Preuss and without Gawn, as I believe Pruess will be a great mid-pricer, and Gawn will come down a lot in price. Others believe Gawn will hover around the same price, be the best captain option all year, and Preuss will fail. I don’t think the Gawn people are wrong for their thinking, nor do I think the Preuss people are, just different, but it’s fun to work through these problems with a lot of like minded people.

Now, Rowsus, turn all this into something incredibly useful and we’ll all be very thankful haha
It's a good exercise you have done there.
My take is, that there are players that sometimes can be catagorised as a success in Coach A's team, but were not so successful in Coach B or C's team. Obviously some players are a success/failure for whoever have them, but sometimes you need to see what effect having that player had on the structure of the rest of the team.
My guess/opinion on Gawn is, if his price remains above $650-$660k mark until at least late in the season, then it's a win for those that started him. If it falls to $600-$650k area, then it has the potential to be as described, a win from some but a loss for others. Anything below $600k within the first 10-12 Rounds would probably be considered a loss for those that started him.
Using 2.5-3 trades to get a Super Prem is not a disaster in my mind, it all depends on how you are travelling at the time!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Would love your thoughts on the mids that you're looking at in the sub 600k range. I personally am planning on going M1/2 Macrae & Oliver, and then M3-4-5 "value" options. (Cripps, TKelly, Taranto etc.) Would also love to hear your thoughts on TKelly coming into 2021, as I remember you being very big on him coming into 2020, and put some very compelling arguments/statistics forward about him. Looking forward to your insight over the next few weeks :)
Hi Cricket98,
At the moment, I have no Mids under $600k, outside of Rookies. To be honest, there is not too many in that $500-$600k bracket jumping out at me, though I'm sure a number of them will be a success.
Cripps I'm a little cautious on. Super price ($523,700), if you like him. I'm just a bit hesitant, that his best scoring days were when he carried the team on his back, and I'm just wondering if he still scores well, when their team is improving, especially their Mid depth.
Kelly was 25, nearly 26, last season, and in his 3rd season. I expected more, and would want to see a bit more consistency, before I started him.
Taranto. I'm not sure what to make of GWS, or their Mids. They really disappointed as a team last season, and are right the crossroads. If Taranto was M/F I would consider him, but I'm not willing to risk him (or J Kelly) in my Midfield.
 
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Hi Cricket98,
At the moment, I have no Mids under $600k, outside of Rookies. To be honest, there is not too many in that $500-$600k bracket jumping out at me, though I'm sure a number of them will be a success.
Cripps I'm a little cautious on. Super price ($523,700), if you like him. I'm just a bit hesitant, that his best scoring days were when he carried the team on his back, and I'm just wondering if he still scores well, when their team is improving, especially their Mid depth.
Kelly was 25, nearly 26, last season, and in his 3rd season. I expected more, and would want to see a bit more consistency, before I started him.
Taranto. I'm not sure what to make of GWS, or their Mids. They really disappointed as a team last season, and are right the crossroads. If Taranto was M/F I would consider him, but I'm not willing to risk him (or J Kelly) in my Midfield.

Cripps gaining a few kegs again may help him?
 

Rowsus

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Question RE captain pick price

Every year we all aim to pick two captain options that we feel will be the two highest scoring players. They are usually two of the highest scoring (and most expensive) players from the prior year, and we are paying top dollar hoping that they maintain their average. This worked well with Grundy, Gawn, and Macrae for the past few years, Neale in 19/20, Titch in 17/18, Danger in 16/17/18.

This year though, we are seeing the two highest averaging options from 2020 (Gawn and Neale) being considered overpriced by approx 10 ppg (I’d assume that’s what most people think). There are a number of articles highlighting that the scaling distribution and total game time in 2020 resulted in higher scoring by top end players. This makes 2021 potential different to any other SC year when picking your starting squad.

With a reversion to more and longer games, is it a sound strategy to pay top dollar for your two captains, if you are assuming a 10 ppg drop?

Additional notes for my thinking. I’m assuming Gawn averages 128, Neale averages 123, Grundy averages 120, Macrae averages 118.
The simple answer is yes. If you feel these are the two most reliable high scorers, then you pay premium on their price, and eat the value loss. Getting your Captain picks right is just that important! To say you don't want to pay the top dollar, means you are willing to compromise, on what is the first, and most important picks you make in your team.

I'll do a little exercise to demonstrate this point. I'll do it for 2019 and 2020.
Taking the 5 players with highest averages from the previous season, make the 10 possible combinations of two players.
We'll start with a budget of $1,500,000 and subtract the two players prices from that starting amount.
ie 2018 highest 2 averages were, and their 2019 opening prices $1,500,000 - Grundy $708,200 - Gawn $692,100 = $99,700.
So we have 10 "teams" of 2 players. We'll look at the first 8 Rounds of each season, and for each Round, the first player in the team to play that Round will be the VC, with the ability to take their score as C, if desired. We'll use 4 scoring levels as a trigger to take that VC score: 115, 120, 125, 130 and look at the result for all 10 teams, using those 4 trigger points. If the two players play against each other, the most expensive players is Captain. If a player misses a game, he will be replaced by the 6th highest averaging player from the previous season. To even out the the lower priced teams potential to score, we'll divide the remaining cash (ie. with Grundy/Gawn in 2019 the $99,700 shown above), by the MN for Rnd 1 of that season, and come up with the number of additional points each team will receive, based on how expensive their teams were. So the Grundy/Gawn combination in the 2019 table received an additional 18.4 points/Round, and the Neale/Fyfe comination (the 4th and 5th biggest averages from 2018) receive an additional 35.2 points/Round.
I hope that makes sense, sometimes I'm not good at explaining things.
So we have ten 2 players teams, and 4 VC trigger scores, that gives us 40 different results for each season.
The color blocking in the table is just to more easily show when combinations tied.

SCS2021 JStu1a.png

So we can see that the highest priced player (Grundy), and the 5th highest priced player (Cripps) when looped at 115, 120 & 125 points, totalled 3,306.7 points, compared to the worst combination of the 2nd highest (Gawn) and 4th highest player (Dangerfield) totalling 2,743.8 points. That's 509.6 points less, over a period of 8 Rounds. That's pretty enormous, when we are only considering the 5 highest priced players, and using only 2 of them!
The last 4 numbers in the table are what each loop trigger score totalled, across the 10 teams. Interestingly, the old traditional trigger score of 120 was the best performer, while the 130 trigger faired worst.

2020 gives us a similar result. The totals are a lot higher, given the higher scores recorded in 2020, and the difference between the top and the bottom combination is also larger.

SCS2021 JStu2a.png

Not unexpectedly, the Gawn/Neale combination was the top scorer, and scored the same, no matter which loop trigger score you used. This is due to them both posting so many 130+ scores. The Macrae/Fyfe combination, using the 125 & 130 trigger point fared worst, a whopping 735.3 behind Gawn/Neale!
The trigger points of 120, 125 & 130 were all very similar, once again, due to the number of really high scores recorded, while the 115 trigger point lagged behind, as you once again, might expect in a high scoring year.

The 2 tables demonstrate how crucial it is to get your starting Captain picks right. I really think the potential dollars lost mean next to nothing, if you are giving up 500 or 600 points across the first 8 Rounds.

It comes back to my old team selection process.
Start with your 2 or 3 Captain picks, and don't look at the price, as you just need to get it right!

As I said during the post, sometimes I'm not good at explaining things. If there is anything in here that doesn't make sense to anyone, please just ask, and I'll attempt to clarify it for you.
 

Rowsus

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It does potentially make a difference.
Watching him last season, he didn't seem to be beasting it around the packs, as often as we are used to. I put this down to wear and tear, from carrying the team so much, with the added excuse of their other Mids improving slightly.
It's definitely something to consider, and keep an eye on!
 
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