Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion

Which ‘keepers’ are you planning on starting with?

  • Dangerfield

    Votes: 44 63.8%
  • Sidebottom

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Dunkley

    Votes: 38 55.1%
  • Zorko

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • Dusty

    Votes: 22 31.9%
  • Heeney

    Votes: 4 5.8%
  • Greene

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • De Goey

    Votes: 8 11.6%
  • Phillips

    Votes: 19 27.5%
  • Other

    Votes: 7 10.1%

  • Total voters
    69
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I wonder what midfield means in this case. Stephenson roamed a bit at the Pies and often worked all the way up to half back, so I assume he has a decent running capacity. It would be perfectly logical to have him playing more wing/hff, he's great at finding space. But unless he's made some massive changes in his game and put on some muscle I have a really hard time seeing Stephenson getting more time in a position he'd encounter more contests in. Even putting his "efforts" last season aside he's never had much of an appetite for the contest.
Did you see Noble’s presser yesterday ? Literally said Stephenson would play majority midfield this year. That’s a massive call to make that he is no chance to get any midfield time at all, purely based on what Noble said, and where he’s played in their intra club / match sims.

I neither agree nor disagree at this stage as to what his best position is, whether it be forward or mid, or a decent mix of both. But that statement just seems extremely closed off in comparison to what his coach said barely a day or so ago.
New team member dispatch by a club who didn’t want him, and not a noted mid at the top level.Run your eyes over the Roos engine room. Cannot see it happening..

Stevo body is not strong enough for mid roll, prefers the one on one and the open spaces when he can use his speed.

This type of talk happens every year “ more mid time” seldom happens.
 
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Not arguing that point don't get me wrong but I think TT is a stepping stone for me
Taranto is an interesting stepping stone pick.

I always like to back selections based on what has or hadn’t worked in the past - to me Taranto is very reminiscent of Jack Steven in 2015... he was coming off the back of a 17 @ 84 year, one prior season over 100 but clearly a jet in the making. I started Steven that year - he went 110 at the byes before I cashed him in (finished the year 22 @ 103). Feels like a decent playbook for Taranto. Almost identical start price from memory.

Heeney is a tough one. Felt like the whole world was on him in 2019, and it was a genuine horror show for the first half of the year. My concern is another slow start. Nicely priced though obviously.

If I could get a better read on Zorko I’d take him. He was still getting a lot of attention last year, but you’d imagine sides will be shifting to Neale permanently. Hate the talk of his forward role but he’s so classy.
 
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Stevo has many in front of him at North and is next to no chance of getting any midfield time this year. Last year couldn't pick up a lose ball with no pressure, had a season to forget. Hope he can turn it around.

Zieball, i think it is bold move to an unfamiliar roll.
Sometimes having your old side basically pay another team to get rid of you is somewhat motivating for you at your new side though :)

He's more than capable of being a dangerous midfielder and presents something the Kangas don't have with his speed, they've got a lot of predominantly inside midfielders.

Don't get me wrong, his last season was a thoroughly disappointing regression as a player but it certainly seems like there was more at play in that, just looked to have zero confidence. Might just be a lack of work ethic and that might never change but if getting dumped like that doesn't motivate him, nothing will.


Like I said elsewhere I think the 'theory' around Heeney is OK to pick as a fwd but cause TT is in the mids then they aren't really comparable is 'good in theory' but just isn't how anyone's season will work out. Once you factor in DPP trades and the unknowns about what premos might become available at bargain prices can blow this out of the water before round 6.

To me I wanna max the salary cap for value and points and let it unfold. Again, we can run numbers about how many traders you need to complete a team and then classify trades as being right or wrong but the best trades, which impact rankings the most, aren't standard up and downs. Usually they are the ones which are a bit of roll of the dice which if they were posted here as ideas many would say "i wouldn't but hey good luck"
Oh no doubt on those random trades that work, sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make (Brayshaw LY...) as well.

I just don't like stepping stone logic, it's basically saying that spending the money and restricting/minimising cash generation is a better pathway than just keeping the money in the bank and maximising cash generation. The stepping stone only makes sense if that's the worst case outcome and not the probable outcome, just has to be picked as a probable keeper for mine, which I can absolutely buy with Taranto, fwiw. I'm not the guy that would make the case as I've never really rated him but I can totally hear the case for him.






Taranto is an interesting stepping stone pick.

I always like to back selections based on what has or hadn’t worked in the past - to me Taranto is very reminiscent of Jack Steven in 2015... he was coming off the back of a 17 @ 84 year, one prior season over 100 but clearly a jet in the making. I started Steven that year - he went 110 at the byes before I cashed him in (finished the year 22 @ 103). Feels like a decent playbook for Taranto. Almost identical start price from memory.

Heeney is a tough one. Felt like the whole world was on him in 2019, and it was a genuine horror show for the first half of the year. My concern is another slow start. Nicely priced though obviously.

If I could get a better read on Zorko I’d take him. He was still getting a lot of attention last year, but you’d imagine sides will be shifting to Neale permanently. Hate the talk of his forward role but he’s so classy.
Heeney has the discount this year so even if he starts a bit slow, as long as he gets to the 4 year average, he's done the job. 2019 everyone expected a role change and got what they expected it just wasn't the role change they wanted as he went deeper forward. He worked it out in the end though and dragged it back.

To be fair, I don't think Heeney has a lot of hurt factor for not starting this year. In the terrible role he's said to be playing he's a mid 90s prospect. Good starting pick but not hurtful. If he does eventually get moved to a better role, which with Horse is not likely, he's incredibly stubborn on not playing his best midfielders in the guts and risking winning the ball first, you can always just upgrade to him for probably pretty similar to what he costs now.
 

Bomber18

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And speaking about Josh Dunkley, who returned for another season at the kennel after a failed bid to move to Essendon in the trade period, King said: “Reflecting on his year, he had that bad syndesmosis and we asked him to fill a role in the ruck and he was so team-oriented that he accepted it, but we won’t do it this year. We will share the load with all our mids and with his forward craft and ability to cover ground he will play multiple positions for us and he will be accepting of that.”

Just catching up on a few posts, this doesn't excite me at all on Dunkley. I think personally I see Dunkley having little chance to hit 110 playing perhaps 50-60%+ forward. Reckon he'll be more in that 95-100 range which doesn't seem a good buy at 560k.

I know many are extremely bullish on Dunkley but I'm personally not seeing it. I may still start him based on other's opinions but personally I'm quite reluctant at the 560k price tag, reckon he'll be available for sub 500k during the year.
 
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And speaking about Josh Dunkley, who returned for another season at the kennel after a failed bid to move to Essendon in the trade period, King said: “Reflecting on his year, he had that bad syndesmosis and we asked him to fill a role in the ruck and he was so team-oriented that he accepted it, but we won’t do it this year. We will share the load with all our mids and with his forward craft and ability to cover ground he will play multiple positions for us and he will be accepting of that.”

Just catching up on a few posts, this doesn't excite me at all on Dunkley. I think personally I see Dunkley having little chance to hit 110 playing perhaps 50-60%+ forward. Reckon he'll be more in that 95-100 range which doesn't seem a good buy at 560k.

I know many are extremely bullish on Dunkley but I'm personally not seeing it. I may still start him based on other's opinions but personally I'm quite reluctant at the 560k price tag, reckon he'll be available for sub 500k during the year.
I don't think it's about being bullish. You're sheepish on him and still have his floor at 95. He might not be value at 95 but he stays in your team and lets you continue to upgrade elsewhere. Meanwhile if things change and he gets more midtime those who don't have him have to scramble to get him in. I think there is space in supercoach for defensive moves and this one seems to have little downside. Games played is a fair argument but I don't think scoring or price is.

Edit: Bearish, not sheepish. Now I'm sheepish!
 
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Bomber18

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I don't think it's about being bullish. You're sheepish on him and still have his floor at 95. He might not be value at 95 but he stays in your team and lets you continue to upgrade elsewhere. Meanwhile if things change and he gets more midtime those who don't have him have to scramble to get him in. I think there is space in supercoach for defensive moves and this one seems to have little downside. Games played is a fair argument but I don't think scoring or price is.
I think I agree with most of what you said.

But I have to disagree that price isn't a factor though. 560k for a 95 average is very poor return on investment. I'd rather take a punt on a cheaper pick to make up value elsewhere.

I guess I'm just not convinced there'll be any scrambling. At worst (if not starting), he'll hover around 550k with his ceiling seeming to be around 105 to me (which is a top six fwd) given he will be competing with Treloar, Macrae, Bont, B.Smith, Libba for points in the pie and mid time. Even Hunter averaged 110+ last season.
 
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I think I agree with most of what you said.

But I have disagree that price isn't a factor though. 560k for a 95 average is very poor return on investment. I'd rather take a punt on a cheaper pick to make up value elsewhere.

I guess I'm just not convinced there'll be any scrambling. At worst (if not starting), he'll hover around 550k with his ceiling seeming to be around 105 to me (which is a top six fwd) given he will be competing with Treloar, Macrae, Bont, B.Smith, Libba for points in the pie and mid time. Even Hunter averaged 110+ last season.
$560k for a floor of 95, not expected 95. But if you have his ceiling at 105 then your arguments make sense.
 

Darkie

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What do we think about Dunkley’s likelihood of changing clubs if he doesn’t get the mid time he wants?

This is one of the stronger arguments in his favour in my view.

It appears to be quite a credible threat, and if he is Beveridge’s favourite, surely he wants to keep him at the club?
 
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I don't think it's about being bullish. You're sheepish on him and still have his floor at 95. He might not be value at 95 but he stays in your team and lets you continue to upgrade elsewhere. Meanwhile if things change and he gets more midtime those who don't have him have to scramble to get him in. I think there is space in supercoach for defensive moves and this one seems to have little downside. Games played is a fair argument but I don't think scoring or price is.
I think I agree with most of what you said.

But I have disagree that price isn't a factor though. 560k for a 95 average is very poor return on investment. I'd rather take a punt on a cheaper pick to make up value elsewhere.

I guess I'm just not convinced there'll be any scrambling. At worst (if not starting), he'll hover around 550k with his ceiling seeming to be around 105 to me (which is a top six fwd) given he will be competing with Treloar, Macrae, Bont, B.Smith, Libba for points in the pie and mid time. Even Hunter averaged 110+ last season.
There is fairness in both what you are saying.

When he played mids he was getting +75% CBA, when fwd it was 0-40%. what will be 2021? If 60%, then it will be a good result and we see Freowho upside.

Where B18 is not bearish enough, is he will not hover around $550k if he repeats his run of 80-100 scores that he did in 2020, where he plummeted from $596k to $507k over six weeks.

His run early is mixed with Pies who smashed them (Dunks mid score of 67) in the mids last year then the Eagles where he did really well, then North, Lions, Suns Giants and Richmond. He is one who keeps swaying around, sitting behind Dusty (whilst some say slow starter, his record is more mixed).

The advantage of not starting him is the declining magic number. will need +115 to really hurt, possible if he gets 60% mid time. If he throws up two average scores, he could be picked off. decision decisions.

Currently Dusty in as it gets me to Rozee (13th premium and only mid pricer) at F3 if I also have Lloyd in the side, Ziebell, Impey, BC and North expensive rookies plus DGB.
 
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Dunkley and Dusty I see in the same boat, both similar priced, both likely to be top 6 Fwds at the end of the year, both are over priced (like most good players due to the shorter games last year), both could sit in the Mid line at the start of the season until the Mids sort themselves out and both could be 'set and forget' in the Fwd line to focus on other areas of your team.
 
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