Discussion 2021: AFL Pre-Season Practice Matches & AAMI Community Series Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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I dont think he would be afraid to miss a target. Some of the things he tries are pretty outrageous and low percentage. Thats why I said he was maybe looking for higher percentage options. It probably is true that he doesn't take many long options but its more that he is trying to put someone else into space. To be fair, Port probably relies upon using short creative disposal going forward because there is not a lot in the way of a tradional forward line with players leading into space. Never really thought of it like that, but he suits our gameplan.
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In juniors he was the best provider of goal assists in his draft, and then he was first for goal assists among all forwards last year. He is a genuinely blessed with vision as much as skill. The issue I have selecting him is to do with how much midfield time he will get because he is likely to see some degree of regression in his role as a half-forward due to the arrival of Fantasia and just due to the fact it's hard to sustainably score well in that position.
Ironic that one of the best kicks to ever play the game doesn't seem to value it.
As good as he looks Josh Kelly is also one of the worst kicks in the league.
My theory isn't that the midfield is the problem (the guys they let walk were bad kicks but Coniglio and Kelly were both top kicks as juniors) but their forward structures which have always stunk. From the early days when all they wanted to do was play paddock with Cameron to the more recent times where they've tried to turn him into a contested pack marking target. They've just never had any kind of structure that would be fun to kick towards.
Throw in that they've never had wings that can mark or that you particularly want the ball in the hands of, except Whitfield who is always pushing behind the play and sweeping, and that none of their midfielders outside of Ward or Greene when he was in there are very good marks and I think you end up with a team that has always had a bigger problem with "where to kick" than anything else and when you don't have decent structures you're holding the ball longer than you should and then you're kicking under pressure or you rush kicks to avoid getting there.
Taranto in particular has always had kicking issues though, was the big knock on him from his draft days so not convinced he's a strong candidate for it to improve but who knows, sometimes those bad kicks learn how to game it a bit by only kicking short when it's very safe and otherwise going long to a boundary contest that's technically effective.
As good as he looks Josh Kelly is also one of the worst kicks in the league.
My theory isn't that the midfield is the problem (the guys they let walk were bad kicks but Coniglio and Kelly were both top kicks as juniors) but their forward structures which have always stunk. From the early days when all they wanted to do was play paddock with Cameron to the more recent times where they've tried to turn him into a contested pack marking target. They've just never had any kind of structure that would be fun to kick towards.
Throw in that they've never had wings that can mark or that you particularly want the ball in the hands of, except Whitfield who is always pushing behind the play and sweeping, and that none of their midfielders outside of Ward or Greene when he was in there are very good marks and I think you end up with a team that has always had a bigger problem with "where to kick" than anything else and when you don't have decent structures you're holding the ball longer than you should and then you're kicking under pressure or you rush kicks to avoid getting there.
Taranto in particular has always had kicking issues though, was the big knock on him from his draft days so not convinced he's a strong candidate for it to improve but who knows, sometimes those bad kicks learn how to game it a bit by only kicking short when it's very safe and otherwise going long to a boundary contest that's technically effective.
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They're kind of polar opposites but the same end scenario with a common theme.
The common theme is they're both very bad kicks.
Other than that, Wines doesn't get enough cheaper touches on the spread. Taranto doesn't get enough quality touches on the inside.
As the pizza man said, he's a woeful kick (his numbers are worse than basically all ruckmen in the league) and that is compounded by him thinking he's a good kick and having a very high K:HB ratio. He's actually decent by hand, good even.
The other major problem is his kicking is so bad it leads to a lot of clangers which just cripple him.
Disposal can change, a more inside role would almost certainly damage his DT but would almost certainly help his SC, more contested possessions and less chances to kick instead of handball. That first season when his DE% was actually decent he had a 1:1.1 K:HB ratio and basically his ratio has gone more kick oriented as his DE% has gone downhill.
I still don't dislike the pick, that raw DT ability can translate to SC but he's got so little scope for improvement in DT that realistically you're projecting him both getting back to that level but also fixing the ratio destroying aspects of his game. You'd want to see some improved kicking and decision making and a perfect role.
My biggest concern is still Tom Green, he's just a much better prospect and fit for the inside midfield role and should be their top priority and with Kelly, Coniglio and Hopper already there it's hard to see where the 110+ role sits. Let's say Coniglio and Hopper stay as mid 90s guys and Kelly stays as a 110+ guy, if Green does what he looks capable of and pushes towards the 100 range that's already one of the top midfields. Throw in Whitfield, De Boer (not taking points but minutes), Greene, Ward and anyone else pushing through and it's definitely congested.
Still think Taranto is that guy you'd pick and not even question as a forward but that extra level required in the mids makes it a tough sell. Kudos to anyone with the balls to pick him when it works though
The common theme is they're both very bad kicks.
Other than that, Wines doesn't get enough cheaper touches on the spread. Taranto doesn't get enough quality touches on the inside.
As the pizza man said, he's a woeful kick (his numbers are worse than basically all ruckmen in the league) and that is compounded by him thinking he's a good kick and having a very high K:HB ratio. He's actually decent by hand, good even.
The other major problem is his kicking is so bad it leads to a lot of clangers which just cripple him.
Disposal can change, a more inside role would almost certainly damage his DT but would almost certainly help his SC, more contested possessions and less chances to kick instead of handball. That first season when his DE% was actually decent he had a 1:1.1 K:HB ratio and basically his ratio has gone more kick oriented as his DE% has gone downhill.
I still don't dislike the pick, that raw DT ability can translate to SC but he's got so little scope for improvement in DT that realistically you're projecting him both getting back to that level but also fixing the ratio destroying aspects of his game. You'd want to see some improved kicking and decision making and a perfect role.
My biggest concern is still Tom Green, he's just a much better prospect and fit for the inside midfield role and should be their top priority and with Kelly, Coniglio and Hopper already there it's hard to see where the 110+ role sits. Let's say Coniglio and Hopper stay as mid 90s guys and Kelly stays as a 110+ guy, if Green does what he looks capable of and pushes towards the 100 range that's already one of the top midfields. Throw in Whitfield, De Boer (not taking points but minutes), Greene, Ward and anyone else pushing through and it's definitely congested.
Still think Taranto is that guy you'd pick and not even question as a forward but that extra level required in the mids makes it a tough sell. Kudos to anyone with the balls to pick him when it works though
Taranto just isn't a damaging player so far in his career, but like you have said he can handball well, and his best path to success might be through more contested possessions and electing to handball rather than kick at contests. I think there is more room for growth in that regard, as players seem to be able to increase cp's and disposals with more ease than they are able to improve their ball use, as this is generally more drilled into them through their habits and technique. The issue again is that GWS have a few other players who seem to be better at getting groundball gets than Taranto, and Taranto might not be given the best opportunity to improve in that regard. He definitely has scope to improve but it's already worth pointing out that he might not have the same upside as other players who have hit over 100 in their 3rd season.
Like you said, he has the same issue as Wines, he can't kick at all.
I don't see the pick as risky as you are suggesting, I think an average of 95-105 is likely, but I also think he has a floor of 85-90 at the moment due to their team structure and what we saw from last year, which makes me cautious.
I would also pump the breaks a bit on Green, I've had him in my side at times but I don't totally love the pick and there's a lot of hype that goes beyond what might be warranted. At 350k he needs to average 90+ to be a good selection and I feel this is more unlikely than likely. I might choose him because there is no other option and he has upside based on some of what he has shown in the league so far, but asking him to go from 72 to 90 in his second season is a lot.
I don't think he out averages Taranto, which is contradictory as I don't think both can average 90 simultaneously.
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Adams and Treloar have both improved their kicking in recent years, especially Adams last year. I think the main thing is that it's somewhat rarer than improving disposal numbers, both contested and uncontested and even if these guys can improve they might regress the following year or soon after that.
Edit: Just checked this a bit closer, Adams didn't improve his efficiency last year but I think I recall champion data saying that he had improved his kick rating. Anyway, disregard that point about him improving. Treloar improved his efficiency in 2018 and 2019 after his efficiency dropped way down in 2017 (but he only improved it back to the levels he was at prior to 2017), but then it regressed again last year to virtually the same level as 2017 (49% in 2020, 48% in 2017). I'd say this info backs up all of your points.
All this info is from AFL stats pro
Edit: Just checked this a bit closer, Adams didn't improve his efficiency last year but I think I recall champion data saying that he had improved his kick rating. Anyway, disregard that point about him improving. Treloar improved his efficiency in 2018 and 2019 after his efficiency dropped way down in 2017 (but he only improved it back to the levels he was at prior to 2017), but then it regressed again last year to virtually the same level as 2017 (49% in 2020, 48% in 2017). I'd say this info backs up all of your points.
All this info is from AFL stats pro
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Yeah I swear Champion Data put out a video or were mentioned in an article saying his kicking improved, but maybe they meant kick rating, where they basically take the difficulty of all your kicks and give you a score based on whether you have kicked above or below expectation. Having watched him last year his kicking did look way better.
My simplified logic for currently not selecting Taranto:
Taranto is underpriced at $453,700 and expected to make $100,000 profit, that is my biggest lure to getting him in. But at that price, if selecting him, I would expect him to be a Keeper, so that $100,000 would not be a factor.
With all the 'ifs' about Taranto, I have my doubts that Taranto could be a top 10 Mid, so I'm not keen to trade him as a Keeper.
The only way I will select Taranto is if we are struggling to field low priced Rookies.
Taranto is underpriced at $453,700 and expected to make $100,000 profit, that is my biggest lure to getting him in. But at that price, if selecting him, I would expect him to be a Keeper, so that $100,000 would not be a factor.
With all the 'ifs' about Taranto, I have my doubts that Taranto could be a top 10 Mid, so I'm not keen to trade him as a Keeper.
The only way I will select Taranto is if we are struggling to field low priced Rookies.
If not yet posted, would recommend listening to this.
AFL Fantasy focus, but excellent coverage of rookies, breakout candidates and premos working up to full fitness across all the practice matches - was going to post some notes, but there's so much in there, it's easier to just have a listen for yourself:
AFL Fantasy focus, but excellent coverage of rookies, breakout candidates and premos working up to full fitness across all the practice matches - was going to post some notes, but there's so much in there, it's easier to just have a listen for yourself:
It's actually amazing but statistically he is. He goes at 58% which ranks 35th at the Giants with only Taranto, Greene, Coniglio and Hopper really below him who are all pretty well known for bad kicking. Dangerfield for comparison goes at 57% but he is a vastly more contested player. For the type of player Kelly is, which is a balanced midfielder, he's a particularly bad disposer of the ball. Basically he disposes at a rate similar to Oliver/Dangerfield heavily contested guys as opposed to at the 63% type range of the more balanced. In comparison a guy like Pendles is at 68% playing a similar role.
It totally fails the eye test as he has a genuinely brilliant kicking action and technique but the stats don't support the eye test at all in this situation. He looks like an elite kick and executes at a very poor level.
It totally fails the eye test as he has a genuinely brilliant kicking action and technique but the stats don't support the eye test at all in this situation. He looks like an elite kick and executes at a very poor level.
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