Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion

[N29]

I took Neale out of my team a couple of weeks ago, 2nd guessing now. Thought paying top dollar, injury concern, more midfield rotations with new mids, spending more time forward.

One thing I remember from the start of last year was his focus on improving his game and getting forward and having a scoring impact. Haven't looked at the stats, but he did have a couple of games where he had multiple goals. So now, I wait to see how he looks before deciding to bring him back in again. Now with plenty of forward rookies, I could 0-0-8 up forward to get him in.

Have also been tossing up between starting Neale or not.

I think for mine at the end of the day there are some questions marks around picking him, and can you really pick someone priced at 135ppg who has some questions marks. The answer is yes you can, but at the risk of losing 100-150k of starting team value if he does regress back to a normal scoring season between 110-120ppg. My gut feeling is it could pay off not too, as long as you nail where you spend the rest of the cash.

I think Brisbane will want to improve on their disappointing finals exit last year and the best premiership teams share the ball around. Rayner will be in the middle more, McCluggage can improve again, Bailey will be in there a bit more. There's probably a few more but the point is it's beneficial for them if they aren't relying on Neale to rack up 50 touches. IMO anyway.

Neale has a knack for starting the year with a bang, and the soft tissue pre-season injury worries me that he might be able to do that this year. I generally stay away from players who have had pre-season soft tissue injuries, especially calf injuries which can quite often be re-occurring. Would not be surprised if they managed his workload in the first few rounds because of this. Additionally Neale went into uncharted territories going 130+ last year. How much of that is due to the shortened quarters? Impossible to know. A gun to my head I say he doesn't back up again and reach the same heights.

In saying all of that I'm still confused as to what I'll do here. My gut says don't pay the ridiculous price tag, you can use the money better elsewhere. But I could also just bite the bullet and save myself the headache.

 

[Leroy]

I'm considering him, but if you were to consider Brayshaw you surely have to take Dunkley too right?

Fremantle's midfield congestion is every bit as bad as the doggies

Fyfe - Bont
Mundy - Macrae
Serong - Treloar
Cerra - Smith
Tucker - Libba

And then finally Brayshaw - Dunkley, and that doesn't even include Blakely and Walters.

How can you have any confidence in Brayshaw getting the necesary midfield minutes? FWIW, in the 3 games where Fyfe didn't play, Brayshaw averaged 127.33, I guess it depends on how likely Fyfe is to continue miss games?

I think Brayshaw easily comes ahead of Serong, Cerra and Tucker so I wouldn't be worried about him not getting enough midfield time - not like Dunkley at the Dogs with Libba, Smith and Treloar preferred for all the various reasons.

The thing that stands out for me is that he is reasonably contested (40% contested in 2020) but had an absolutely elite 75% DE.
A fair bit of that I think is because he handballs more than he kicks (1:1.3 K/HB) but if he increases his disposals from around the 20 he averaged last year to say 25 and kicks a bit more, he will be a 110+ player, maybe even 120 with disposal/contested numbers like that.

I really want to pick him. Just haven't yet .

 

[SuchIsLife]

I think Brayshaw easily comes ahead of Serong, Cerra and Tucker so I wouldn't be worried about him not getting enough midfield time - not like Dunkley at the Dogs with Libba, Smith and Treloar preferred for all the various reasons.

The thing that stands out for me is that he is reasonably contested (40% contested in 2020) but had an absolutely elite 75% DE.
A fair bit of that I think is because he handballs more than he kicks (1:1.3 K/HB) but if he increases his disposals from around the 20 he averaged last year to say 25 and kicks a bit more, he will be a 110+ player, maybe even 120 with disposal/contested numbers like that.

I really want to pick him. Just haven't yet .

I really want to pick him too. Not sure if he's necessarily ahead of Cerra (who I also really rate), Freo is looking to utilise Cerra's skills more around contests so they get more meaningful clearances https://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news...nger-cerra-set-for-prominent-role-in-the-guts

Cerra played predominantly wing all year, but in the latter half, especially last couple of games he had more CBA than Brayshaw, and Brayshaw's attendances decreased as that happened too.

Then on top of that I think it was announced today that he was with the rehab group? At this stage I'll be clearly following Freo's best 22 bench, if 1-2 of those Serong/Mundy/Tucker players miss I'm probably going to pick Brayshaw.

 

[N29]

First rotation midfield for Freo is Fyfe, Brayshaw and Serong. Cerra will no doubt see his fair share of CBA's but I'd say those first three will still see more.

Shouldn't be worried about midfield minutes for Brayshaw. His general TOG % is the worry, barely cracks 80% from memory. You could probably look at that as a positive as he has room to improve. He doesn't need to do much more to break into 110ppg contention.

Not the worst pick IMO.

 

[THCLT]

A big warm welcome to @N29

Your FFC friends have missed you during this preseason!

 

[Shannon]

A big warm welcome to @N29

Your FFC friends have missed you during this preseason!

Another guy I rate highly, awesome to have you here @N29

 

[N29]

Cheers lads. Looks to be some quality content going around. Hope I can contribute here and there.

 

[Baglimit]

Just gonna leave this here.

View attachment 26677 Who Dat? Looks like a decent unit, can we plug in and play?

 

[inwhiterooms]

His name is Luke Davies-Uniake @Baglimit

You certainly can plug in and play, but it’ll take a large set of testicles.

 

[Baglimit]

lol, reckon he might have, but i don’t at this point

 

[Grundogging]

I took Neale out of my team a couple of weeks ago, 2nd guessing now. Thought paying top dollar, injury concern, more midfield rotations with new mids, spending more time forward.

One thing I remember from the start of last year was his focus on improving his game and getting forward and having a scoring impact. Haven't looked at the stats, but he did have a couple of games where he had multiple goals. So now, I wait to see how he looks before deciding to bring him back in again. Now with plenty of forward rookies, I could 0-0-8 up forward to get him in.

Where are those 8 forward "rookies" who are playing in round 1 coming from? Ziebell, JD, Impey, Dow, Rowe, Treacy, ???, ???.

 

[Professor]

Where are those 8 forward "rookies" who are playing in round 1 coming from? Ziebell, JD, Impey, Dow, Rowe, Treacy, ???, ???.

Harrison Jones or Alec Waterman, Henry from the pies, Williams from WC.

Edit - even Henry from Freo.

 

[Shannon]

Harrison Jones or Alec Waterman, Henry from the pies, Williams from WC.

Edit - even Henry from Freo.

Cahill & Campbell are another 2

 

[Grundogging]

Harrison Jones or Alec Waterman, Henry from the pies, Williams from WC.

Edit - even Henry from Freo.

Thanks - I've been a bit out of the loop for the past couple of weeks so I'm a bit behind the 8-ball on rookies.

 

[pizza safety]

Tim Taranto stats among midfielders:

- 23rd for kicks per game. (12)
- 27th for kick to handball ratio. (1.7)
- 85th for effective kicks per game. (5.3)

He would be a much better player if he would realise he isn't a good kick and stopped trying to kick so often.

Stats from AFL Stats Pro

 

[wogitalia]

57% is not a bad disposer of the ball for a midfielder, it's bang in the middle as average (94th of 174 among mids) and he's almost as average a midfielder in profile of equal inside/outside (104 of 174 for contested possession rate). However the sheer volume of contested possessions would explain this, he's 46th for average contested possessions, so he still kicks a fair bit under pressure and explains the pure efficiency being a bit low.

I think this also has a lot to do with the kind of kicks he attempts versus the other guys. Danger often kicks long to packs (which is an effective disposal as long as your team has over 50% of the players at the contest), whereas Kelly tries the lower percentage kicks, ones that are more spectacular when pulled off.

You'll also find that Dusty has a poor kicking efficiency but you'd have to be pretty brave to say he's not a good kick. You can tell more about who is a good kick by looking at total effective kicks, and Kelly was 11th for average effective kicks, six of the guys ahead of him are wingers.

I would argue that Dusty hit's some incredible kicks but is a poor kick in general actually, the stats also support that and for him the eye test backs it up, imo. He misses a lot of short kicks and does shank it quite a bit. He also makes some kicks that most players can't but on weight of averages he's not that good a kick, for every one of those amazing kicks there are a couple of short passes he misses. Basically if I need some freakish kick made, he's kicking for my life but I wouldn't even consider him if I just need someone to hit a 25m pass 10 times.

Danger is a poor kick who games the system to be better than he actually is, but knowing your limitations is part of the decision making aspect that goes into kicking.

Using bad decision making as the reason for someone executing kicking at a low level doesn't really help change the end result. I think Kelly is actually a good kick but the stats don't back it up, my personal theory is actually that he's excellent on his left but mediocre on his right and that he uses his right far more than he should, especially given his ability to get into and create space. I'd love to see his kicking efficiency by foot. It definitely fails the eye test with his kicking that he's that bad (perhaps mediocre is a better term).

I love Kelly as a player but if you asked me if he was closer to Danger or Pendles on kicking efficiency on pure eye test I'd say Pendles every day of the week and, well, I'd be wrong every day of the week

Looking at his peers for CP% you're looking at the following KE% Macrae (66.9%), Merrett (61.7%), Sidebottom (65.1%), McCluggage (58.8%), Bailey Smith (60.2%), Treloar/Martin (57.5%) and Pendles (68.1%) with Kelly at 58.1% being the 3rd lowest of the group and both of Martin and Treloar are on the far end of his peers for CP%. Looking at his KE% compared to his CP rate his peers would be Oliver (52.9%), Clug (35.7%), Bont (46.1%), B. Smith (36.7%), Martin (40.6%), Boak (42.4%), Treloar (39.7%), Danger (55.7%) and Petracca (50.6%) with Kelly at 35.5%. I took a list of 26 similar players (on skill level, it's basically the top 25 mids and Lloyd) and if you combined the CP% and KE% Kelly would be the 3rd worse, ahead of only Gaff and Hunter who are just too uncontested.

I get that on the eye test he's a great kick and I totally buy the "biting off more than he can chew" approach to kicking and genuinely agree with you on that but at the end of the day the stats say he's a poor kick relative to his role in the side.

 

[pizza safety]

I would argue that Dusty hit's some incredible kicks but is a poor kick in general actually, the stats also support that and for him the eye test backs it up, imo. He misses a lot of short kicks and does shank it quite a bit. He also makes some kicks that most players can't but on weight of averages he's not that good a kick, for every one of those amazing kicks there are a couple of short passes he misses. Basically if I need some freakish kick made, he's kicking for my life but I wouldn't even consider him if I just need someone to hit a 25m pass 10 times.

Danger is a poor kick who games the system to be better than he actually is, but knowing your limitations is part of the decision making aspect that goes into kicking.

Using bad decision making as the reason for someone executing kicking at a low level doesn't really help change the end result. I think Kelly is actually a good kick but the stats don't back it up, my personal theory is actually that he's excellent on his left but mediocre on his right and that he uses his right far more than he should, especially given his ability to get into and create space. I'd love to see his kicking efficiency by foot. It definitely fails the eye test with his kicking that he's that bad (perhaps mediocre is a better term).

I love Kelly as a player but if you asked me if he was closer to Danger or Pendles on kicking efficiency on pure eye test I'd say Pendles every day of the week and, well, I'd be wrong every day of the week

Looking at his peers for CP% you're looking at the following KE% Macrae (66.9%), Merrett (61.7%), Sidebottom (65.1%), McCluggage (58.8%), Bailey Smith (60.2%), Treloar/Martin (57.5%) and Pendles (68.1%) with Kelly at 58.1% being the 3rd lowest of the group and both of Martin and Treloar are on the far end of his peers for CP%. Looking at his KE% compared to his CP rate his peers would be Oliver (52.9%), Clug (35.7%), Bont (46.1%), B. Smith (36.7%), Martin (40.6%), Boak (42.4%), Treloar (39.7%), Danger (55.7%) and Petracca (50.6%) with Kelly at 35.5%. I took a list of 26 similar players (on skill level, it's basically the top 25 mids and Lloyd) and if you combined the CP% and KE% Kelly would be the 3rd worse, ahead of only Gaff and Hunter who are just too uncontested.

I get that on the eye test he's a great kick and I totally buy the "biting off more than he can chew" approach to kicking and genuinely agree with you on that but at the end of the day the stats say he's a poor kick relative to his role in the side.

I know what you mean with Dusty, he's not always super reliable and does some shanks/poor kicks, but I would argue he's a very elite and damaging kick on the whole. To me, he's a lot like a prime Zorko in the sense that when your team is up against them and they have the ball you have an overwhelming fear that what they're doing will carve your side up. There's a certain level of aggression and creativity/vision to their kicking which I think overwhelms some of the errors they make. I think Dusty is usually fine with easy kicks (most of the time), his goal kicking accuracy is almost always elite, it's his irrational decisions to kick under immense pressure or his propensity to try to hit low % targets which are his undoing at times. It's also what makes him great, so it's hard to criticise him too much.

You could argue Merrett is a better short kick than Kelly, not sure about him being as reliable a long kick, I think the discrepancy between he and others and Kelly is very related to decision making. He could be slightly overrated as a kick (you might be right about his left vs right) but I wouldn't call him statistically poor, I'd say he is more or less average on those raw numbers, but again so is Dusty and the efficiency is only part of the story. The only mids who played at least 8 games who averaged more effective kicks than Kelly were: Mitch Duncan 8.8, Merrett 8.6, Gaff 8.6, Ed Langdon 8.4, Lachie Hunter 8.4, Neale 8.2, Menegola 8, Brandon Ellis 8 & then it was Kelly at 7.5, putting him 9th. The only player with a higher contested % than him there is Neale - there's a lot of ways to read effectiveness is the point I'm getting at. He was 11th for total kicks among mids, so he's not underperforming per his number of kicks and the more kicks a player has the more likely it is that they are taking on some difficult kicks.

Btw what I said about him being 46th for CP's made no sense, it's all relative to the cp % and k/e % so I take that back.

 

[Nick T]

Cripps

Feel obligated at $523k but reluctant after past 2 years. Last year avg 97 and the 117 in 2019 saw him unable to string consecutive tonnes from round 8 onwards with massive highs alternating with scores between 65 and 90. Tags and recovery from being banged up caught me out the few times I put the C on him.

 

[Wheedus]

Cheers lads. Looks to be some quality content going around. Hope I can contribute here and there.

*clapping*

 

[jarrad_]

I saw a post on big footy from a Carlton supporter saying that Cripps has got worse since Teague has been in charge would be interesting if true