Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

[dlanod]

Super interesting chat! Really appreciate the stats provided and debate.

Random thought but is there any correlation to the number of marks? Gut feel says there is an increase in average marks based on the openness of the games and that would in itself contribute to a reduced ruck contest tally.

Could be a long bow to draw, but I’d actually feel better if that was the case as I reckon coaches will adapt to the rules and “manning the mark” strategies will kick in. Games won’t stay that open for long so if the ruck contest tally lands somewhere between the “worryingly low” preseason and “nothing to worry about” totals of previous seasons, any points impact should be manageable. Just..

@Ironhawk backed up your hunch to a degree but I had a similar thought watching the games and then seeing the ruck stats.

It seemed like that the long congested kicks down the line, in the hope of a ball going out of bounds and a new clearance opportunity, was replaced with uncontested marks down the line because the leading forward/winger could head towards either side of the man on the mark. This allowed a lower and more direct kick since there was no need to go over the man on the mark, and these kicks are harder to cut off or spoil (without infringing).

Typing that out also made me wonder whether the above lent itself to kicks back towards the corridor, if not actually into it, because the man on the mark's positioning was covering the kick down the line - so even if it was spoiled or spilled, it wasn't going out of bounds.

 

[Zagbag]

Looks very promising for Meek

 

[Chumpion]

@Ironhawk backed up your hunch to a degree but I had a similar thought watching the games and then seeing the ruck stats.

It seemed like that the long congested kicks down the line, in the hope of a ball going out of bounds and a new clearance opportunity, was replaced with uncontested marks down the line because the leading forward/winger could head towards either side of the man on the mark. This allowed a lower and more direct kick since there was no need to go over the man on the mark, and these kicks are harder to cut off or spoil (without infringing).

Typing that out also made me wonder whether the above lent itself to kicks back towards the corridor, if not actually into it, because the man on the mark's positioning was covering the kick down the line - so even if it was spoiled or spilled, it wasn't going out of bounds.

I did notice players starting to take an "inside" position when on the mark (jumping a meter or so towards the corridor before the umpire said "stand") so I wonder if this will happen more as the season unfolds. That said, I feel like a lot of coaches will adopt the approach that no matter how many uncontested disposals you use, you still have to go inside 50 eventually.. so might drop the ruckman back to 25-30m out and try to force and shots at goal to either be from distance or from the boundary. Given the kick in rules, giving up a low percentage shot at goal and then rebounding from the point could be a strong strategy compared to players around as they lead into space for uncontested marks.

(unless teams actually working out that kicking for goal is important and work on it properly..)

 

[Leroy]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369401356419694592

Well that's interesting... has Darcy been reduced to having to be a forward who pinch hits in the ruck, because Meek is so awesome?
(Gee I hope they see it that way)

 

[Socrates2]

If Flynn and Meek are both selected to play, I'll probably take a risk and play them R2 and R3.
Then I've got two more performing rookies . If things go bad, there sounds like there will be other rookie options to trade into the rucks eg Hunter, Fullerton.
It's starting to look like the Biclavs rookie year to me where the winner started Biclavs at R2.

 

[Wheedus]

Too much risk for me. Combination of risky JS leading to forced trades / restructure and possibility of sub-50 scores on the ground.

I think it's a given the two Gs drop in price / average but that might occur with every ruck which means GG are still the standout options, albeit at a lower average. In SC terms, if they're still outperforming the next best ruck by 10-15 then it's a win irrespective of the drop off.

Who are the next best - Goldy in decline, Marshall (inj), ROB and NN?

Maybe Draper at R2 is worth a look. 71SC from 58% TOG is a pretty good return (albeit against second string Geelong rucks). Averaged 70 but did have one score of 122 in the Dreamtime game so the ceiling is there. $378k is just so awkward but if he can push 90s, the stepping stone could be achieved.

 

[Dimmawit]

If Flynn and Meek are both selected to play, I'll probably take a risk and play them R2 and R3.
Then I've got two more performing rookies . If things go bad, there sounds like there will be other rookie options to trade into the rucks eg Hunter, Fullerton.
It's starting to look like the Biclavs rookie year to me where the winner started Biclavs at R2.

Things were a bit different that year though. Currie and Daw were both rookies (R3 and R4) and in round 4 Matt Leunberger was on the bubble as a 1st ruck mid pricer (300k) and I traded him in at that point (which was my plan going into the year) moving Blicavs to mids. If Blicavs was to stay in the ruck it would've been a disaster - Leuy av'd 100+ when he came in

https://supercoachscores.com/threads/season-review-thedimmawits.868/

 

[donnybuang]

I dare say there were a lot more uncontested marks as well. Quicker movement definitely doesn't favour the rucks from my perspective.

Makes it harder to set up the kick behind or in front and be the big pack mark option, especially if those packs get circumvented entirely.

Any idea if rucks are down on disposals this preseason?

 

[Blue Dragons]

Marshall and Ryder both out now. Looks good for Hunter to get a gig to start the year

 

[OnTopBar]

I haven't seen any games yet this year and I'm relying on the good souls here to provide a bit of insight on scoring trends and suchlike.

I think I'll go in with Grawndy, Treacy at F8 and 1 of Meek/Flynn at R2. If the one I don't include just happens to have good JS and scoring and one of Grawndy pump out a couple of low scores then a correctional trade is definitely on the cards.

It's a bit hard to lock in 2 of 5 potential rookie rucks so maybe pulling 3 of them with the potential to downgrade to 2 of them coming in could be the go? If one of Grawndy does fail to fire early then the cash release for early upgrades is in play.

 

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369485845200130055

 

[Shannon]

So with the Ryder news, let's look at Gawn's draw to start the season :-

Round 1 v Freo - probably v Meek & Treacy
Round 2 v St Kilda - probably v Hunter & McKernan
Round 3 v GWS - probably v Flynn or Briggs
Round 4 v Cats - probably v Stanley
Round 5 v Tigers - v Nankervis

Good luck to those running the gauntlet & not starting Gawn

 

[froffershanners]

So R2 and R3 will be very interesting with these rookie rucks putting their hand up.

Might be too hard to bypass an onfield rookie in the rucks.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

So with the Ryder news, let's look at Gawn's draw to start the season :-

Round 1 v Freo - probably v Meek & Treacy
Round 2 v St Kilda - probably v Hunter & McKernan
Round 3 v GWS - probably v Flynn or Briggs
Round 4 v Cats - probably v Stanley
Round 5 v Tigers - v Nankervis

Good luck to those running the gauntlet & not starting Gawn

Oh my goodness.

Could legitimately be averaging 160 at the end of round 5.

The only one there that he may score 120 or less against is Stanley if Stanley is actually playing..

 

[Herbie66]

So with the Ryder news, let's look at Gawn's draw to start the season :-

Round 1 v Freo - probably v Meek & Treacy
Round 2 v St Kilda - probably v Hunter & McKernan
Round 3 v GWS - probably v Flynn or Briggs
Round 4 v Cats - probably v Stanley
Round 5 v Tigers - v Nankervis

Good luck to those running the gauntlet & not starting Gawn

Hope he doesn't trip over his beard at the first bounce and pull a hamstring either 😀

Sounds like Darcy could be right for Round 1 anyway.

Round 3 GWS might just bring Mummy in , no secret that Gawn is as soft as butter and the physical attention upsets him

 

[The Banker]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369485845200130055

Might be hard to get away from starting a rookie now😂

 

[Bomber18]

So with the Ryder news, let's look at Gawn's draw to start the season :-

Round 1 v Freo - probably v Meek & Treacy
Round 2 v St Kilda - probably v Hunter & McKernan
Round 3 v GWS - probably v Flynn or Briggs
Round 4 v Cats - probably v Stanley
Round 5 v Tigers - v Nankervis

Good luck to those running the gauntlet & not starting Gawn

What about not starting Grundy....

 

[Shannon]

Hope he doesn't trip over his beard at the first bounce and pull a hamstring either 😀

Sounds like Darcy could be right for Round 1 anyway.

Round 3 GWS might just bring Mummy in , no secret that Gawn is as soft as butter and the physical attention upsets him

Really?

GWS bought Mummy in for their round 17 game last year.

Gawn scored 150 on him

Previous scores v GWS in order :- 149,156 & 160

His record v GWS the last few years is outstanding.

 

[Herbie66]

Really?

GWS bought Mummy in for their round 17 game last year.

Gawn scored 150 on him

Previous scores v GWS in order :- 149,156 & 160

His record v GWS the last few years is outstanding.

Excellent then , hope history repeats itself for you then 😀

Maybe Mummy is hungry and decides to tackle him and snap in half as well 😀

3-5 rookie eligible rucks likely to be named Round 1 , be crazy not to explore all options at this stage.

 

[Bomber18]

RMarshall listed as 2-4 weeks on the injury list. Aiming for a return in the first month of the season

https://www.afl.com.au/matches/injury-list