Hey Rowsus - A while back I did some modelling of SC across most of a season to compare Guns & Rookies and Mid-Pricers - see posting #44 in the thread SC 2021 : Starting Structure
In view of your statistical interest, I was wondering if you could have a look and see what conclusions you might come up with.
*edit by Rowsus
G'n'R vs MPM
I actually started a maths model on something very similar on Thursday.
I haven't read your post completely yet, but will get to it shortly.
Hey warewolves,
I've read through your post a few times now. I can see you put a lot of thought and effort into it, but unfortunately, there is a big problem in at least one of your assumptions.
In your MPM team you have 17 players priced at an average of $385,300, or 71.7/game, and you have them scoring at 81.5/game.
Let's look closer at that.
In 2020 there were 99 players priced between $360,000 and $410,000.
Those 99 players averaged out at 11/64 for the season.
If we remove the ones that didn't play Round 1, you now have 73 players that averaged 13/70.
You are pretty much (in a normal season), needing them to play 10 to 16 games, and average 81.
If we say that requirement last season reduced to 8 to 13 games, because of the less games, due to Covid.
Only 10 players managed that, and you need 17.
If we look at the 17 highest averaging players, in the $360,000 to $410,000 area last season, that played 8 games or more, you get that those 17 players averaged out at 15/83, which meets the requirements for your model. But what are the chances you will find those 17, or 17 players that will give you your 81.5/game?
Let's look at that mathematically. We'll give you a break, and say nailed the top 5, which is incredibly hard (basically impossible) to do. There are about 18 players you can choose those other 12 players from. There are 18,564 ways you can choose 12 players from the 18 you need.
The number of ways you can choose 12 players from the pool of 68 players you are looking at is 7.2 x 10^12.
That means you are roughly a 390,000,000 to 1 chance, of getting your 17 Midpricers to average 81.
The model I have looked at, based on those 73 players, says that even if you nailed the top 5, you are still likely to only average around 76 from your 17 Midpricers. The 72'ish they were priced at, is probably a more realistic result.
Even when shopping in the cheaper end of the players list, it is really hard to pick 4 or 5 players that will outscore their pricing. To find 17, as we have seen, is bigger odds than Powerball!
