Strategy Round 3: Trades
- Thread starter Tamuhawk
- Start date
Will wait until the end of the round to look at all options.
Given the issues I think my bench is about to create (Fyfe , Fullarton , Hunter , McNeil , Sharp) , expect $$$ generation to be a big problem again this year.
Based on using a $ 125k starting priced rookie as a guide you need 21 perfect rookies ( $ 150k gain) to be able to fund 7 upgrades (using $ 575k as a target price for a premium upgrade)
Hopefully you may be able to get premium D & F upgrades for $ 500k to save some $$$.
Still think starting more and more $ 200-275k players is the better idea (as long as you get the right ones of course)
As to what to do with Cripps , might keep for a few rounds yet and see what is on the horizon.
Given the issues I think my bench is about to create (Fyfe , Fullarton , Hunter , McNeil , Sharp) , expect $$$ generation to be a big problem again this year.
Based on using a $ 125k starting priced rookie as a guide you need 21 perfect rookies ( $ 150k gain) to be able to fund 7 upgrades (using $ 575k as a target price for a premium upgrade)
Hopefully you may be able to get premium D & F upgrades for $ 500k to save some $$$.
Still think starting more and more $ 200-275k players is the better idea (as long as you get the right ones of course)
As to what to do with Cripps , might keep for a few rounds yet and see what is on the horizon.
Started season without Gawn, Neale and Lloyd. So 13 prem starting team on the field. Will hold Dangerfield; loophole for Grundy this week and loophole next two weeks. Will consider bringing in Jordon for Sharp. No other rookies I am missing unless Bergman looks good. Treacy in Rd 5 for Hunter most likely next rookie trade or if Hunter still playing trade the worst performing fwd rookie.
Plan is keep Cripps on the basis he will drop 50K at his scoring level and may not drop at all if he gets at least one high scoring game in there. Go Cripps to Neale round 6 [I have 150K ITB] if his scoring looks like being 85-95 for the year. If Cripps comes good (does not look like it currently) then hope to have a downgrade available to cover someone up to Neale. Perhaps Joe Daniher can find his goal boots and string two 130+ games together. In terms of trading I see Gawn as a challenge to get before the byes, so will need Flynn to avg 100 until the byes to cover ruck upgrade costs.
Defence upgrade will be during byes as started 5 prem deep.
Targets:
Def: Lloyd, Mills, Ryan, May for one spot unless Doc sideways. Doc will be luxury trade or hope to have him D7 by finals.
Mid: Neale, Titch, A Brayshaw, Kelly, Fyfe, for 3 upgrades unless Cripps is sideways traded
Fwds: Dunks, Dusty, ???, ???, whoever can demonstrate likely top 10 Fwd finish.
Rucks: Flynn to Gawn around byes. Dependent on Flynn holding form.
Plan is keep Cripps on the basis he will drop 50K at his scoring level and may not drop at all if he gets at least one high scoring game in there. Go Cripps to Neale round 6 [I have 150K ITB] if his scoring looks like being 85-95 for the year. If Cripps comes good (does not look like it currently) then hope to have a downgrade available to cover someone up to Neale. Perhaps Joe Daniher can find his goal boots and string two 130+ games together. In terms of trading I see Gawn as a challenge to get before the byes, so will need Flynn to avg 100 until the byes to cover ruck upgrade costs.
Defence upgrade will be during byes as started 5 prem deep.
Targets:
Def: Lloyd, Mills, Ryan, May for one spot unless Doc sideways. Doc will be luxury trade or hope to have him D7 by finals.
Mid: Neale, Titch, A Brayshaw, Kelly, Fyfe, for 3 upgrades unless Cripps is sideways traded
Fwds: Dunks, Dusty, ???, ???, whoever can demonstrate likely top 10 Fwd finish.
Rucks: Flynn to Gawn around byes. Dependent on Flynn holding form.
I guess if I approach it as a correction it is justified - but he’s only going to lose 20k unless his scoring gets even worse. I certainly don’t want him in my team at M5 with his current form and role, but he’ll be scoring at his price, so from that perspective it doesn’t really justify burning a trade.
Then again, I’ve deliberately left cash in the bank $200k and if there is nowhere else to capitalize on it then I’m wasting both cash and potentially 50 or so points pw and a potential captain option by trading Cripps to Mitchell, just as an example.
Will see how the rest of the round plays out.
Then again, I’ve deliberately left cash in the bank $200k and if there is nowhere else to capitalize on it then I’m wasting both cash and potentially 50 or so points pw and a potential captain option by trading Cripps to Mitchell, just as an example.
Will see how the rest of the round plays out.
For those considering what to do about Lachie Neale...
I don't have him and did all this to try to figure out when to get him. Maybe you'll find it useful.
Going by the comments on the FanFooty stats listings, there are 10 occasions over 2019-2020 that Neale was tagged:
Rd 4 2020 vs ADE - tagged by Keays, scored 147
Rd 7 2020 vs GWS - tagged by De Boer, scored 87
Rd 13 2020 vs STK - tagged by Ross, scored 72
Rd 17 2020 vs SYD - tagged by Clarke, scored 55
Rd 18 2020 vs CAR - tagged by Curnow, scored 142
Rd 12 2019 vs CAR - tagged by Curnow 2nd half only after a strong first half, scored 106
Rd 14 2019 vs STK - tagged by Ross, scored 79
Rd 17 2019 vs PTA - tagged by Sutcliffe (1st half only), scored 118
Rd 21 2019 vs GCS - tagged by Miller, scored 85
SF 2019 vs GWS - tagged by De Boer, scored 47
And now we can also add:
Rd 2 2021 vs Geelong - tagged by O'Connor, scored 75
So, there is little doubt that his scores will suffer a lot when he is tagged.
Upcoming games - when might he be tagged? ie when might we see poor scores, based on teams that have tagged him in the past 2 years:
Rd 3 COL
Rd 4 WBD
Rd 5 ESS
Rd 6 CAR - Curnow tag
Rd 7 PTA - possible tag
Rd 8 FRE
Rd 9 - GCS - possible tag
Rd 10 - RCH
RD 11 - GWS - de Boer tag
Rd 12 - MEL
Rd 14 - NTH
Rd 15 - GEE - O'Connor tag
Rd 16 - ADE - possible tag
Rd 17 - STK - Ross tag
Rd 18 - RCH
Rd 19 - HAW
Rd 20 - GCS - Miller tag
Rd 21 - FRE
Rd 22 - COL
Rd 23 - WCE
There are a couple of issues here:
For those thinking of getting him after Rd 5, when his price has dropped considerably - he may be tagged in Rd 6.
For those thinking of getting him in Rd 14, after his bye, - Rds 15-17 don't look great.
Still haven't decided when is the best time to target Neale - but if I had him, I would keep him. His next three games:
COL - scored 91 in 2019 and 113 in 2020
WBD - scored 114 and 101 in 2019 and 167 in 2020
ESS - scored 140 in 2019 and 157 in 2020
I don't have him and did all this to try to figure out when to get him. Maybe you'll find it useful.
Going by the comments on the FanFooty stats listings, there are 10 occasions over 2019-2020 that Neale was tagged:
Rd 4 2020 vs ADE - tagged by Keays, scored 147
Rd 7 2020 vs GWS - tagged by De Boer, scored 87
Rd 13 2020 vs STK - tagged by Ross, scored 72
Rd 17 2020 vs SYD - tagged by Clarke, scored 55
Rd 18 2020 vs CAR - tagged by Curnow, scored 142
Rd 12 2019 vs CAR - tagged by Curnow 2nd half only after a strong first half, scored 106
Rd 14 2019 vs STK - tagged by Ross, scored 79
Rd 17 2019 vs PTA - tagged by Sutcliffe (1st half only), scored 118
Rd 21 2019 vs GCS - tagged by Miller, scored 85
SF 2019 vs GWS - tagged by De Boer, scored 47
And now we can also add:
Rd 2 2021 vs Geelong - tagged by O'Connor, scored 75
So, there is little doubt that his scores will suffer a lot when he is tagged.
Upcoming games - when might he be tagged? ie when might we see poor scores, based on teams that have tagged him in the past 2 years:
Rd 3 COL
Rd 4 WBD
Rd 5 ESS
Rd 6 CAR - Curnow tag
Rd 7 PTA - possible tag
Rd 8 FRE
Rd 9 - GCS - possible tag
Rd 10 - RCH
RD 11 - GWS - de Boer tag
Rd 12 - MEL
Rd 14 - NTH
Rd 15 - GEE - O'Connor tag
Rd 16 - ADE - possible tag
Rd 17 - STK - Ross tag
Rd 18 - RCH
Rd 19 - HAW
Rd 20 - GCS - Miller tag
Rd 21 - FRE
Rd 22 - COL
Rd 23 - WCE
There are a couple of issues here:
For those thinking of getting him after Rd 5, when his price has dropped considerably - he may be tagged in Rd 6.
For those thinking of getting him in Rd 14, after his bye, - Rds 15-17 don't look great.
Still haven't decided when is the best time to target Neale - but if I had him, I would keep him. His next three games:
COL - scored 91 in 2019 and 113 in 2020
WBD - scored 114 and 101 in 2019 and 167 in 2020
ESS - scored 140 in 2019 and 157 in 2020
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Definitely need to get Warner.
Will need to see at the end of the round and look at possible cash projections for my rookies.
Possibly need to move on Hunter & McNeil.
Fullarton & Sharp could also be issues if they get dropped (at least the Lions play first)
Cripps - > Hind/Tex/Atkins could be tempting especially if Tex provides a quick avenue to a premium ruck.
Cripps - > Ridley is also tempting
+ their are probably 12-15 "speculative" mids worth looking at
see what happens tonight and tomorrow
Will need to see at the end of the round and look at possible cash projections for my rookies.
Possibly need to move on Hunter & McNeil.
Fullarton & Sharp could also be issues if they get dropped (at least the Lions play first)
Cripps - > Hind/Tex/Atkins could be tempting especially if Tex provides a quick avenue to a premium ruck.
Cripps - > Ridley is also tempting
+ their are probably 12-15 "speculative" mids worth looking at
see what happens tonight and tomorrow