Competitions F1 Fantasy

[mike89]

644, in 18th place overall.

Why did Verstappen have to run wide on the second last corner

 

[Verbal Kint]

Ocon looks like a nice cheap way to access Alpine's lift in performance

 

[Wolffy84]

I've prepared some driver and teams break evens going into round 4 (which is this weekend). The negative break even's have disappeared for the moment, but there is still value there.

Drivers: Tsunoda 1, Norris 2, Schumacher 17, Gio 17, Mazepin 23, Russell 27, Leclerc 28, Sainz 32, Latifi 33, Ocon 33, Kimi 34, Max 38, Gasly 39, Alonso 39, Stroll 50, Dan Ric 55, Perez 70, Vettel 79, Hamilton 105, Bottas 130

Teams: Ferrari 0, Haas 19, McLaren 33, Alpha 46, Williams 46, Alfa 50, Red Bull 56, Alpine 58, Aston 112, Mercedes 132

Sometimes it's not so much about the breakeven number and more about whether past performances says they can score that. Hamilton may be more likely to score 105 than Mazepin is to score 23 for example.

I may look to save trades this round with Tsunoda, Norris and Ferrari highly likely to keep making money.

 

[jel]

Looking at Schumacher -> Tsunoda as my only trade.

 

[Wolffy84]

620 by my calculation. Looks like I got 650, need to look closer how to work out the score.
Interesting to see Alpine mixing it with Ferrari & McLaren as the 'best of the rest'

@Wolffy84 how are you working out the BE?

The BE sits in the below formula and it's the same for drivers or teams:

New Price = (Current Price * 0.75) + (Magic Number * ((Sum of Previous two Round's Points + Break Even)/3) * 0.25

The magic number changes each round to help balance out the dollars gained and lost across the game each round. This somewhat explains why Mercedes are adding value, despite not being as dominant as last season. Aston Martin (ex Racing Point) started the season at $15.7M, but based on the first three rounds they should be priced about $6M. So the magic number is a bit high at the moment. Once Aston and Vettel have stopped losing money, the magic number will likely come back down a bit.

(Also, Mercedes and Hamilton often get an artificial decrease in starting price, otherwise they would eat up too much of the starting budget and nobody could pick them.)

 

[Wolffy84]

Looking at Schumacher -> Tsunoda as my only trade.

Tsunoda scored almost nothing last round. If you already have him, he's an easy keep as he can't lose money, but if he scores <5 points again this round, he adds $100K only and has to be traded out next round. But if he scores ~30, he goes up $500K and the money making starts again.

 

[jel]

The BE sits in the below formula and it's the same for drivers or teams:

New Price = (Current Price * 0.75) + (Magic Number * ((Sum of Previous two Round's Points + Break Even)/3) * 0.25

The magic number changes each round to help balance out the dollars gained and lost across the game each round. This somewhat explains why Mercedes are adding value, despite not being as dominant as last season. Aston Martin (ex Renault) started the season at $15.7M, but based on the first three rounds they should be priced about $6M. So the magic number is a bit high at the moment. Once Aston and Vettel have stopped losing money, the magic number will likely come back down a bit.

(Also, Mercedes and Hamilton often get an artificial decrease in starting price, otherwise they would eat up too much of the starting budget and nobody could pick them.)

Thanks, should have realised it's the same formula as AFL SC, just need to work out the magic number.

Pretty sure that Aston Martin is the old Racing Point ( which used to be Force India).
Renault were re-branded as Alpine.

 

[Wolffy84]

Thanks, should have realised it's the same formula as AFL SC, just need to work out the magic number.

Pretty sure that Aston Martin is the old Racing Point ( which used to be Force India).
Renault were re-branded as Alpine.

Yeap. Fixed above. Thanks.

 

[jel]

Tsunoda scored almost nothing last round. If you already have him, he's an easy keep as he can't lose money, but if he scores <5 points again this round, he adds $100K only and has to be traded out next round. But if he scores ~30, he goes up $500K and the money making starts again.

True, I see him as slightly more likely than Schumi to make some coin.

 

[mike89]

True, I see him as slightly more likely than Schumi to make some coin.

Schumi's only chance of (fantasy) points at the moment is a heavy attrition race. That Haas is an absolute dog.

Tsunoda was a little disappointing last night actually, although Gasly wasn't hugely better. After Alpha Tauri looked on par with Ferrari and McLaren early doors and they didn't take advantage of it they're kind of nowhere right now. Maybe the other teams are developing faster than them.

Actually ridiculous how close the midfield is at large though. If you take Norris (5th) down to Vettel (14th) I think they're split by something like 40 seconds.

 

[Lost In The Sky]

Schumi's only chance of (fantasy) points at the moment is a heavy attrition race. That Haas is an absolute dog.

Tsunoda was a little disappointing last night actually, although Gasly wasn't hugely better. After Alpha Tauri looked on par with Ferrari and McLaren early doors and they didn't take advantage of it they're kind of nowhere right now. Maybe the other teams are developing faster than them.

Actually ridiculous how close the midfield is at large though. If you take Norris (5th) down to Vettel (14th) I think they're split by something like 40 seconds.

I think the Alpha Tauri is heavily linked with how the Red Bull's go... Both seem to much prefer the warmer weather to the cooler stuff like we had on the weekend and both seem to get their Tyres working better in the warmer temps. Thinking both teams will show faster signs this weekend in the warmer Spain.

 

[Wolffy84]

Practice for Spain starts tonight.

I'm still leaning towards making no trades this round and potentially utilising three trades next round. Bottas and Perez should both bottom out this round and provide upgrade opportunities.

 

[Wolffy84]

Another encouraging session for alpine for those looking to trade them in.

 

[jel]

Another encouraging session for alpine for those looking to trade them in.

Not so encouraging for McLaren & Max owners. It is only practice, so hopefully they turn it around for quali.

 

[Ironhawk]

Interesting FP3 results, Max topped this session. Alpine were quiet this time, outside the top 10. Mercedes and Ferrari both looking strong, obviously Red Bull too, McLaren right up there in 6th and 8th (split by Gasly). Think this session is probably going to be closer to the starting grid than the last two.

 

[Wolffy84]

Interesting FP3 results, Max topped this session. Alpine were quiet this time, outside the top 10. Mercedes and Ferrari both looking strong, obviously Red Bull too, McLaren right up there in 6th and 8th (split by Gasly). Think this session is probably going to be closer to the starting grid than the last two.

Perez race pace will be good enough for 4th and no better. Was hoping he could pressure bottas a bit more. In any case, will be no trades for me this round.

 

[mike89]

Half tempted to try and get an Alpine in on yesterday's form but... for who? I'd probably have to ditch a Red Bull and I don't feel good about that.

Think I'm staying still as well.

 

[Foxy's Fe-Lions]

No changes for me this week either. I'm running with the same set up as a number of others here - with the possible exception of keeping faith with McLaren rather than going for the 2 x Ferrari option. Hoping to gain a few points at the possible expense of a bit of cash generation. Also not comfortable with having all my (team) eggs in two baskets (Red Bull/Ferrari) and wanted to spread the risk. Ferrari looking good though so fingers crossed I've jumped the right way. Good luck all!

Verstappen (C)
Norris
Leclerc
Tsunoda

Red Bull x 2
McLaren
Ferrari

 

[Foxy's Fe-Lions]

Tsunoda out in Q1. Hopefully good for some overtaking points in the race.

 

[mike89]

Bottas in 2nd down to Vettel in 13th split by three tenths.