Discussion SC 2021: Rookie Discussion

[BlufBlufShuv]

Dev Robertson's time in the ones could be over pretty soon.

 

[Bermi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392705321651474433

Good to see more Rookies getting games this round, (Hugo Ralphsmith, Tom Wilson, Ronin O'Connor and Kieren Briggs), so we will be able to replace our fattened Cash Cows. I hope some turn out to have good job security.

 

[randomcliche]

It's about balancing the strength of the rookies, their potential cash generation, job security (especially approaching byes) in comparison to ~40 points in the current week from the upgrade.

Basically it's about timing the rookies, premiums are far more available than rookies, the likelihood of finding a premium midfielder at 550k this week, next week or in three weeks time is pretty equal, the odds of finding a good rookie downgrade is genuinely random and not great, most of the top rookie types have already debuted at this point of the season.

This week and next week are a classic example:

Rookies on the bubble this week - RCD, Byrnes, Poulter, Sweet, Owies, Sproule, Edwards, Jeka and Henry.
Rookies on the bubble next week - B. Williams (193k), Khamis and Foley.

I think you can make a legitimate case that there are 6 rookies this week that are better cases than the 3 next week. Given that these downgrades are only not going to be important in the byes if they're so good you've already traded them the rookies are extra important. A good rookie pick now should be worth more than a premium over a rookie this week during the bye rounds.

The only downsides of double down is the lost points and the potential that a rookie you think is a must have (Jones, Highmore or Macrae maybe?) gets in next week and you end up going a 3rd down to get them. Personally I'd say Jones is the only guy who I think fits that criteria so not terribly worried on that front, obviously if that happens and you commit to the rookie then it's double the lost points.

Ultimately comes down to the comp of your own team, if you've got great cover right now and don't need the double down, don't do it, but this week for mine is a textbook example of a double down week, I'd say this is close to the strongest group of rookie downgrades we've had with RCD suddenly having very strong JS and role (for a rookie) to his bye and both Byrnes and Poulter also genuinely playing well. Owies I'm more speculative as Martin and Murphy are so close and he's going to be in a dogfight for the spot, Sweet has Martin, even if I think he probably offers more at this point, Sproule is probably holding ground for Hogan after a good game, Edwards definitely just holding the fort and Jeka/Henry looking incredibly limited scorers.

I offer a counter to this by putting up current averages:

RCD 59
Poulter 66
Sweet 61
Sproule 43
Edwards 52
Jeka 28
Henry 20

The last 2 if they keep up their averages will barely move in price.

Then the others are looking $30K to $50K increase which is important. BUT, if say this week you are targetting Caleb Daniel from a maxed out Kosi then Daniel himself is set to rise ~ $35K this round. Close to the same as the rookie. Rozee is another people might be looking at who is now set to jump ~$40K.

So it might be team specific and will depend on whether you are after a value uprade with a low BE because, if so, most of that list could be gotten next week for for the same extra money that the value premium might cost extra.

You're focused on the wrong end of the equation though, you've picked 2 specific targets to try and counter the general theory, if you go one up one down this week then you're forced into one of the 3 next week options whose averages are 56 (at 193k), 39 and 3, so even less cash generation instead of that top 4 (of which you left Bynes out of for some reason).

On the flipside you've got Ridley, Williams, Lever, Whitfield, Vlastuin, Houston and a bunch of other defender options available that will drop price.

In short, Daniel is one of many, the rookies are few and far. Rozee and forwards the same.

Bit of column A and B here. I'd be happy with Poulter, Byrnes and perhaps RCD. But none are in that crazy must have category. Next week is not looking great. But this week there are targets with value Harmes, Titch that I can't look past. I'm resigned to probably 1 trade next week, which might even be a go early if Khamis doesn't put in a more significant score.

 

[Herbie66]

Good to see more Rookies getting games this round, (Hugo Ralphsmith, Tom Wilson, Ronin O'Connor and Kieren Briggs), so we will be able to replace our fattened Cash Cows. I hope some turn out to have good job security.

Malcolm Rosas Jnr also debuting

 

[dlanod]

Dev Robertson's time in the ones could be over pretty soon.

I'm curious why you say that?

• Neale out for a while still.
• Berry doesn't really have a timeline for a return.
• Mathieson was ok but not fantastic, and not exactly the future with his known ceiling and limitations.
• Robertson has switched between doing well as a forward/mid the previous few weeks and doing well playing a role (played a part in quelling Fyfe's impact on the weekend, who has destroyed us in the past) last week.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

I'm curious why you say that?

• Neale out for a while still.
• Berry doesn't really have a timeline for a return.
• Mathieson was ok but not fantastic, and not exactly the future with his known ceiling and limitations.
• Robertson has switched between doing well as a forward/mid the previous few weeks and doing well playing a role (played a part in quelling Fyfe's impact on the weekend, who has destroyed us in the past) last week.

I assume the comment was made based off how Cam Ellis-Yolmen performed in the VFL game last night against the Suns, and maybe even Tom Joyce’s game.

 

[Bones]

@Goodie's Guns congrats on the great intel - hugely appreciated. On the subject of intel 😊 what does your mate at St Kilda think of Ryan Byrnes?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Really having a tough time trying to decide which double down rookies to pick this week...
Seems like the general consensus is:

1. Poulter
2. RCD
3. Byrnes

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Really having a tough time trying to decide which double down rookies to pick this week...
Seems like the general consensus is:

1. Poulter
2. RCD
3. Byrnes

That's the order I have them in.

 

[Hondo]

You're focused on the wrong end of the equation though, you've picked 2 specific targets to try and counter the general theory, if you go one up one down this week then you're forced into one of the 3 next week options whose averages are 56 (at 193k), 39 and 3, so even less cash generation instead of that top 4 (of which you left Bynes out of for some reason).

On the flipside you've got Ridley, Williams, Lever, Whitfield, Vlastuin, Houston and a bunch of other defender options available that will drop price.

In short, Daniel is one of many, the rookies are few and far. Rozee and forwards the same.

We are now seeing yet more rookie debut announcements this round. We've seen injuries to senior players reaching epidemic proportions this season which will keep the rookies coming along. So I stand by my view that that this week's bubble crop is not screaming "season defining must have rookie" selections that mean it's a must double downgrade for every team.

As we can see in this thread there seems to be as many doubling down as 1 up/ 1 down.

I do get that based on 1 or 2 games of scores this week's crop appear better then next week's but it's not like this week's are looking like averaging 80+.

Hall is another one I am looking at. If I skip him this round and he goes up by as much as Byrnes say does then I could get Byrnes next week and be no worse off except i've got another week of intel on the mid rookie options. Or a debut from this round becomes an option.

That said, I am considering a double downgrade

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

I'm curious why you say that?

• Neale out for a while still.
• Berry doesn't really have a timeline for a return.
• Mathieson was ok but not fantastic, and not exactly the future with his known ceiling and limitations.
• Robertson has switched between doing well as a forward/mid the previous few weeks and doing well playing a role (played a part in quelling Fyfe's impact on the weekend, who has destroyed us in the past) last week.

I really just base it on the Freo game compared to his previous: whatever you can say about him quelling Fyfe (who still had 27 touches with much more uncustomary efficiency) DevR looked physically a bit beaten down and his output spoke to that. I also think Ely Smith probably will get a look in with the ones at some stage in coming weeks and DevR will likely (for me) be the first out if that's the case. Mathieson was clearly a better player than DevR on the weekend, despite his deficiencies.

 

[Grundogging]

Good to see more Rookies getting games this round, (Hugo Ralphsmith, Tom Wilson, Ronin O'Connor and Kieren Briggs), so we will be able to replace our fattened Cash Cows. I hope some turn out to have good job security.

Briggs is probably the key one for mine - it's a bit murky as to whether he is going to replace Keeffe down back, as the talk around him is focusing on playing in the ruck?

 

[Bermi]

Briggs is probably the key one for mine - it's a bit murky as to whether he is going to replace Keeffe down back, as the talk around him is focusing on playing in the ruck?

Briggs must have been playing well in the Reserves to be called up, so it would be interesting to know what position he was playing.
If he plays Ruck, then he should score better then playing in defence. I like that he is a DPP, even if he gets dropped later, he could be useful to help cover donuts when trades are low.
I may hang onto Cox a little longer, as he could swap with Briggs later, hmmm.

 

[Blaze]

Yeah, that D7 is doing my head in. I’ve got Frederick/Highmore which I can see being problematic. Cant see me getting away with that for much longer, have 6 premium rookies but Laird is currently in mids with Kosi D6. Would like to get Kosi to D7 but struggling to sideways a Fredrick/Highmore due to low trades.

I think Murphy will be a great D7 this year if he bounces back from his concussion. Thinking of bringing him in when he is named again

 

[Grundogging]

I think Murphy will be a great D7 this year if he bounces back from his concussion. Thinking of bringing him in when he is named again

Second concussion of the year for Murphy and he has a bit of a history in that space, so while I'm bullish on his role and scoring potential I'm a bit bearish now on his ability to stay healthy, as we'll probably do exactly the same thing with him any time he takes a knock to the head - ie. rest him as a precaution even if he does otherwise look ok from his test results and physical assessment.

 

[Grundogging]

Briggs must have been playing well in the Reserves to be called up, so it would be interesting to know what position he was playing.
If he plays Ruck, then he should score better then playing in defence. I like that he is a DPP, even if he gets dropped later, he could be useful to help cover donuts when trades are low.
I may hang onto Cox a little longer, as he could swap with Briggs later, hmmm.

Looks like Briggs and Flynn have been splitting time in the ruck, so it's likely that he's coming in as a ruckman. Doesn't bode well for Flynn's prospects this week tbh, which is not great as a Flynn owner hoping to cash out after a couple more games.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

I honestly don't really get why Flynn hasn't had at least one more game. OK, you have Mumford ahead of him in the pecking order but Flynn hasn't looked bad, and in patches has actually looked very good. Maybe there's something he's not doing that hasn't come up on the footage I've watched of him that has kept him out of the side, maybe its the ankle. Mumford clearly should not have played last week because he was quite poor in the half a game I watched.

 

[Professor]

Sounds like he'll be available around the byes.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1393102951124594689

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/KymboRoochSA/status/1393102951124594689

 

[Zim^zuM]

Really having a tough time trying to decide which double down rookies to pick this week...
Seems like the general consensus is:

1. Poulter
2. RCD
3. Byrnes

Same.

Id we go by the lower number of weeks Lambert, cotchin, Bolton 2 weeks. Prestia 1 week.

With those numbers are people still considering RCD with the better JS? I'm more interested in JS vs scoring

 

[Wheedus]

Same.

Id we go by the lower number of weeks Lambert, cotchin, Bolton 2 weeks. Prestia 1 week.

With those numbers are people still considering RCD with the better JS? I'm more interested in JS vs scoring

Taking Poulter for that very reason.