So Rowsus, just wondering if you would be able to provide a statistical analysis and report on Sloane? (Saw your reply and subtle suggestion in the midfield thread!). Cheers!
One of the things I like to see from a potential breakout/score jump player, is the ability to post good scores across a number of different scenarios. Winning teams, losing teams, home, interstate, moderate teams and harder teams. If their good scores are too concentrated in one area, it worries me that they are not diverse enough to make the jump we are looking for.
Sloanes good scores are very concentrated. Let's have a look at a few different ways to break his scores up. (As usual, my analysis only looks at the last 2 years)
I have used "In South Australia" rather than "home", as Adelaide are playing their home games at a new venue now.
In the top table:
The
red scores contain his 178 in round 12, 2012 against Fremantle at Paterson
The
blue scores contain his 180 in round 20, 2013 against North at AAMI
The
purple scores contain both of the above scores.
I'm generally not too big of a fan, of the "If you take these scores out, his average looks like this" type of analysis. Having said that, if you remove Sloane's 2 monsters, you end up with the figures we have in the 2nd table. All of a sudden, the only area that looks good for him now, is games in South Australia, where Adelaide win by 31+. Even the 31+ wins interstate don't look that impressive. I know some/many of you will say any players figures will suffer, if you take out their 2 best scores, but even with those 2 games in, the other areas don't look tremendous
Looking at the bottom table, that breaks his scores up just in simple score groups, it doesn't look
too bad. A third of his games are in the 116+ area. But pulling apart further 50% are below 100, and 20% below 86. Of his 14 games at 116+, 7 of them came in home wins, where the margin was 41+ (more than the 31+ in the other tables). If you want him to be a 115/game player, he needs around 12 - 15 games in this 116+ area. As historically 50% of these have come for him when Adelaide play in South Australia, and win by 41+, you might need that to happen in 6 to 8 of their 12 games in South Australia this season. The 12 games are against, in order: Port, Sydney, GWS, Melbourne, Collingwood, Gold Coast, North, Port, Hawthorn, West Coast, Richmond, St. Kilda. I can only see 3 games there I'd be happy to back them to win 41+, and maybe another one or two where they are an outside chance to do it.
Even looking at possibly improved opportunities from Van Berlo or Vince being gone doesn't help him. The only player being out, that really boosts his score is Douglas. In 6 games Sloane played without Douglas in the last 2 seasons he averaged 129.5 (the 178 is in there, but not the 180), all 6 scores were 112 or higher. When Douglas plays, Sloanes average drops to 102.7.
All in all, too many of his good scores seem to be coming from one scenario. big wins in South Australia.
He's a no for me on the breakout possibilty, as I think he is only a 15-20% chance to go 110+, and about 5-8% to 115+. Add his round 8 bye into the equation, and while I think there is only a little downside possibility to him (any player you take at that price should hopefully be a top 10 player) I think his risk outweighs his potential reward.
