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For those of you wanting to forecast a round or so ahead I have used some of the largest price and breakeven differences from weeks 1 and 2 to calculate the following, assuming a 2 week weighted rolling average
Xth score BE (rounded to the nearest point) = RdX Price / 458 - 0.8 * X-1th Score
==> using this for Rd1 scores and Rd2 prices appears to match the Rd2 Breakevens on their site
==> backtesting this for round 1 appears to show Rd1 Breakevens that correlate to the above formula using a "previous week score" of their 2021 average
and Rd X Price Change (rounded to the nearest $100) = (Rd X Score - Rd X BE ) * 86.2 per point appears to be close to the mark for Round 1 to Round 2 price changes
Trying a few different score ranges then tells me is that if players score the same in round 2 as round 1 their price change will be around 50% higher than in Round 1, so (very roughly) Prespakis may reach around $45-$50k post round 4 and leading into Round 5 with another 3 * 79 which i think is very optimistic.
Xth score BE (rounded to the nearest point) = RdX Price / 458 - 0.8 * X-1th Score
==> using this for Rd1 scores and Rd2 prices appears to match the Rd2 Breakevens on their site
==> backtesting this for round 1 appears to show Rd1 Breakevens that correlate to the above formula using a "previous week score" of their 2021 average
and Rd X Price Change (rounded to the nearest $100) = (Rd X Score - Rd X BE ) * 86.2 per point appears to be close to the mark for Round 1 to Round 2 price changes
Trying a few different score ranges then tells me is that if players score the same in round 2 as round 1 their price change will be around 50% higher than in Round 1, so (very roughly) Prespakis may reach around $45-$50k post round 4 and leading into Round 5 with another 3 * 79 which i think is very optimistic.
