Discussion AFLW (Season 6) Fantasy Game Discussion - Lucky7 wins AFLW Fantasy 2022

[THCLT]

Kara Antonio's BE doesn't look right in that chart.

I think it is meant to be Makaela Tuhakaraina.

Thanks for picking that up.
@Under The Dome is correct in his observation, I've corrected this in my file.

 

[Bomber18]

I'd say Freo/Crows/Dees/Rich

RIC definitely not. FRE, ADE, NM, MEL & COL strong. BRI, WB & GWS probably next tier down.
Then probably CAR, RIC, GEE, GCS, STK, WCE in that order.

Thanks for this guys! Probably needed this before I filled up my side with WCE, STK and GC fwds….. hahaha

 

[couchPOTATO]

927 for me which sees me ranked 646. The E score for Brazill doesn’t make much difference, it is A Lee’s score of 9 haha

Trades can’t be made yet right?

Think I’ll be looking at Brazill and Dalton to Birch and Ferguson. After that, could grab the Freo mid rookie who scored well or see if the first trades give me enough to find a startable fwd.

It seems fwds scores in this format will vary a lot depending on the strength of the team. Which sides are the strongest? Melb, Rich?

Any fwds who have a good role (ie mid)?

939 for me, quite a lot of work to do to figure out my 3 trades, one of which will be removing Lauren Magee if she is not named on Friday night.

 

[THCLT]

It seems fwds scores in this format will vary a lot depending on the strength of the team. Which sides are the strongest? Melb, Rich?

I'd say Freo/Crows/Dees/Rich

RIC definitely not. FRE, ADE, NM, MEL & COL strong. BRI, WB & GWS probably next tier down.
Then probably CAR, RIC, GEE, GCS, STK, WCE in that order.

Early days but the following charts may be useful...

 

[Bomber18]

Thanks all!

I think based on this, Eloise Jones (ADE) seems like a good bet up fwd. I’m not sure if I will have enough to do McCarthy or Bohanna to E Jones so will need to consider whether Schmidt to E Jones is worthwhile.

 

[THCLT]

For those of you wanting to forecast a round or so ahead I have used some of the largest price and breakeven differences from weeks 1 and 2 to calculate the following, assuming a 2 week weighted rolling average

Xth score BE (rounded to the nearest point) = RdX Price / 458 - 0.8 * X-1th Score
==> using this for Rd1 scores and Rd2 prices appears to match the Rd2 Breakevens on their site
==> backtesting this for round 1 appears to show Rd1 Breakevens that correlate to the above formula using a "previous week score" of their 2021 average

and Rd X Price Change (rounded to the nearest $100) = (Rd X Score - Rd X BE ) * 86.2 per point appears to be close to the mark for Round 1 to Round 2 price changes

Trying a few different score ranges then tells me is that if players score the same in round 2 as round 1 their price change will be around 50% higher than in Round 1, so (very roughly) Prespakis may reach around $45-$50k post round 4 and leading into Round 5 with another 3 * 79 which i think is very optimistic.

I've got something in mind which I've applied with some relative success for other sport fantasy codes.
Since this is my first stab at AFLW Fantasy, I'm not accustomed to how pricings are calculated and the MN which drives this. I'll wait until the end of R3 when I have enough data points to see if I can work something up as a weekly roundup for the group.

As you can already gather, I'm working through some details which will form part of my weekly roundup (time permitting) which will hopefully assist with your enjoyment of the game. Please post anything which may be of interest for you and I'll try and fit it in where applicable.

 

[couchPOTATO]

Thanks all!

I think based on this, Eloise Jones (ADE) seems like a good bet up fwd. I’m not sure if I will have enough to do McCarthy or Bohanna to E Jones so will need to consider whether Schmidt to E Jones is worthwhile.

Notwithstanding Round 1 based on her scoring history I think Jones is very likely to revert to an average of 35-45 from here with a ceiling of high 40s if she gets a decent role and Adelaide are dominant this season, neither of which is a certainty from my perspective.

Chasing points is OK if she backs up in Rounds 2 and 3 you can sell at a profit but with smaller cash increases than expected I would be preferring rookies who average 25-35 or more likely mid priced breakouts (players switching form forward to mid roles, and young guns ready to step up).

 

[Pearcey47]

Early days but the following charts may be useful...

View attachment 37960
View attachment 37961

2020:
Points for:
ADE 947.2
BRI 926.2
CAR 1030.2
COL 959.8
FRE 906.5
GCS 893.3
GEE 899.0
GWS 883.3
MEL 917.2
NM 1013.0
RIC 756.3
STK 901.0
WB 869.5
WCE 778.8

Points Against:
ADE 1054.5
BRI 887.7
CAR 872.0
COL 785.8
FRE 904.0
GCS 950.8
GEE 936.0
GWS 850.2
MEL 861.2
NM 854.2
RIC 973.2
STK 909.0
WB 914.2
WCE 928.7

2021:
Points For:
ADE 972.2
BRI 989.7
CAR 970.8
COL 960.8
FRE 955.2
GCS 876.8
GEE 868.9
GWS 889.1
MEL 997.0
NM 1004.1
RIC 874.6
STK 973.2
WB 921.9
WCE 855.3

Points Against:
ADE 950.2
BRI 866.2
CAR 935.7
COL 829.6
FRE 887.3
GCS 993.8
GEE 1007.2
GWS 950.0
MEL 932.2
NM 921.8
RIC 970.1
STK 909.4
WB 959.6
WCE 996.4

 

[bomberboy]

Ranked 66th after the first week (sure that'll shift a bit as I didn't have Brazill). I feel like that as much as I like Vesely, midfield rookies are the way to go. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Anyway, this is what I'm thinking...

Svarc - Ferguson
Bohanna - Brennan/Antonio
Vesely - McMahon

 

[couchPOTATO]

Ranked 66th after the first week (sure that'll shift a bit as I didn't have Brazill). I feel like that as much as I like Vesely, midfield rookies are the way to go. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Anyway, this is what I'm thinking...

Svarc - Ferguson
Bohanna - Brennan/Antonio
Vesely - McMahon

That looks fine but a screenshot or list of rookies you do have and the top 3 or 4 you don’t might be handy as well.

 

[BarkingGhecko]

Scores/rankings updated with emergencies added

 

[BarkingGhecko]

I had two rookie defenders on field not play. Looks like I got the bench score and the utility score added. Something to keep in mind for later!

 

[bomberboy]

That looks fine but a screenshot or list of rookies you do have and the top 3 or 4 you don’t might be handy as well.

Hey mate,
I've got Birch, Reid, Prespakis, Rowbottom, Fuller, Cutting, Bohanna, Lister, Low, Kiely and West. To me the main 2 I'm missing are McMahon and Ferguson.

 

[Under The Dome]

Sitting rank 59th.
Not a bad start being 67 points off the top.

Edit: Have ended up dropping another 2 spots.

 

[Pearcey47]

Ellie Blackburn (WB) to miss Round 2 due to Health & Safety Protocols.

As per Twitter ( thanks to @couchPOTATO )

 

[Under The Dome]

SCS Coaches to Follow

1. THCLT - FLYING HORSES
2. Stephen247 - Stephen247
3. Tamuhawk - Tamuhawk
4. Vicwood - Vicwood
5. Connoisseur- Connoisseur
6. Ben’s Beasts - Dees4TheDouble
7. Pearcey47- The Biggest Losers
8. Bunlit- Bunlit Roos
9. couchPOTATO - SuperSquad 2022
10. stephen - Bluth Lodge
11. BarkingGhecko - Barking Gheckos
12. KLo30 - Hard@it
13. Bomber18 - Jibrangers

*Please post your team name and I'll add it to the list*

Sorry for being late to the party.

I wanted to make sure my team was valid before posting.

Team name is: Under the Dome

 

[Under The Dome]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1480782405904392193

View: https://twitter.com/carltonfc_w/status/1480782405904392193

 

[Under The Dome]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1480810489458221056

View: https://twitter.com/aflwfantasy/status/1480810489458221056

 

[BreakfortheBorder]

Im in the same boat as Under The Dome, my team can be added Gaelic Cats

 

[THCLT]

RD1 Fun Fact

294 players graced the footy field to amass a combined total of 12,662 fantasy points or an average of approximately 43 points per player.

43*16+C = 731 (total score based on player's R1 average); 43appp
*appp=average points per player

R1 Leader = 1,140 (67appp)
100th = 1,062 (62appp)
200th = 1,035 (61appp)
500th = 976 (57appp)
1,000th = 892 (52appp)

A score of exactly 731 was ranked 1,544th amongst 1,645 coaches.