Position 2022: Forward Discussion

Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
47,728
Likes
107,809
AFL Club
Collingwood
@Herbie66
View attachment 38712

Shore up the other lines with premiums and use some of the trade boosts after the dual position changes to cash out the first rookie batch and grab forward premiums. :unsure:
Close

I had Gresham , Rayner , Coniglio , Brodie , Curnow , W Rioli + Coleman & D Rioli in defence

Hollands & Maginness + the WB guy & the 3 D/F @ $ 123,900.00 offer so much flexibility.

As I just posted though forward line could require completely different thinking if Dangerfield , Fyfe , Gawn and Marshall all get DPP assigned.

The Bailey , Butters , de Goey , English , Heeney , Thomas types might be suddenly less appealing.

Probably could even risk not starting Dunkley and seeing his role , Taranto could be a timely upgrade once Greene returns

EDIT forgot about Zorko
 
Last edited:
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
47,728
Likes
107,809
AFL Club
Collingwood
@Herbie66
View attachment 38712

Shore up the other lines with premiums and use some of the trade boosts after the dual position changes to cash out the first rookie batch and grab forward premiums. :unsure:
All rookie forward line 😀 with Brodie , Coniglio , Curnow.

Sit back until the first lot of DPP are announced , reassess and upgrade , upgrade , upgrade 1 by 1
 
Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
2,559
Likes
9,517
AFL Club
Richmond
Close

I had Gresham , Rayner , Coniglio , Brodie , Curnow , W Rioli + Coleman & D Rioli in defence

Hollands & Maginness + the WB guy & the 3 D/F @ $ 123,900.00 offer so much flexibility.

As I just posted though forward line could require completely different thinking if Dangerfield , Fyfe , Gawn and Marshall all get DPP assigned.

The Bailey , Butters , de Goey , English , Heeney , Thomas types might be suddenly less appealing.

Probably could even risk not starting Dunkley and seeing his role , Taranto could be a timely upgrade once Greene returns

EDIT forgot about Zorko
Start all of them with Danger and Fyfe in the mids (possibly Zorks, but he'll probably drop in price). Bailey, Butters, De Goey, English, Heeney and Thomas to potentially be used as stepping stones to the Uber Premo mids. Food for thought.
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
47,728
Likes
107,809
AFL Club
Collingwood
Start all of them with Danger and Fyfe in the mids (possibly Zorks, but he'll probably drop in price). Bailey, Butters, De Goey, English, Heeney and Thomas to potentially be used as stepping stones to the Uber Premo mids. Food for thought.
Certainly definitely worth thinking about , as to who may (or may not) get assigned F status , F line already had so many different starting options/structures.

Additional 5 trades (if used widely) suddenly opens up so much more possibilities.
 
Last edited:
Joined
27 Jan 2014
Messages
6,769
Likes
14,766
AFL Club
Fremantle
Start all of them with Danger and Fyfe in the mids (possibly Zorks, but he'll probably drop in price). Bailey, Butters, De Goey, English, Heeney and Thomas to potentially be used as stepping stones to the Uber Premo mids. Food for thought.
If you start Danger and Fyfe expecting another position to be added they are probably scoring less than they are worth and will be cheaper so best to wait for them.
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,770
Likes
26,259
AFL Club
Sydney
I like to get my thoughts in writing so I'm gonna do my early thoughts on the premiums. I haven't looked at byes, I haven't been following preseason to know who is injured yet other than the last page of the thread (Dixon/Fantasia basically) but whatever...

I'm definitely finding this the hardest position to pick and easily the hardest I've seen it in years. So many guys have genuine upside cases that are very strong whether you look at the top or the middle of the list.

Dunkley - He's kind of in the exact same spot he was last season, albeit a bit more expensive. He's underpriced when fit and in the right role and he's overpriced under any other situation.

Can he stay fit? It sure doesn't seem like it at this point and he's definitely in the injury prone group, I'm still undecided if many different injuries or one repeated on is worse but he's played 20+ games once in his career and last year the preseason was basically perfect so even that kicker is compromised.

End of the day, if he's in the top midfield rotation and fit, he's worth a punt because his upside is unmatched. I think he'll be in my team until either of those is no longer true.



Duncan - Another very interesting option. He's underpriced but not considerably so. He's durable until the last two seasons and just turned 30 so not the best trend to be on there. He's proven he scores regardless of role, in fact I think there's a very good case for him to make the Kade Simpson progression to half back (he already spends most of his time there anyway) and I think like Simpson or Boyd he can score at an elite level there (110+).

I really like him as a pick at this point, it's weird that durability is really my only concern here. I think he's got enough value to make that a fair risk at this point.


Taranto - The most enigmatic player of them all. He's either basically an ironman or Mr Glass who misses half a season, basically the glass half full/empty personification for durability. He can't kick, at all, but he basically does everything else you'd want. He doesn't offer much out of position and his midfield is absolutely packed with more talented guys that can kick or that are even harder than he is and basically all they've drafted the last few years are kids to go through there.

The positional aspect really scares me, he was really decent as a forward last year but he's a poor man's Toby Greene and he's struggled to reach premium levels, especially in a year where that looks like being 100+, so that's a hard sell as a role for mine given the other names and that the truly woeful kicking caps him even in the best case of pure midfield.

On the flipside, his age profile is perfect and a 2nd straight perfect preseason would be a strong kicker.

He's absolutely on the radar but I have to say he's personally on the lower end of mine. Outside Cameron being a terrible coach I can't find any good reason he gets midfield minutes ahead of Green, Kelly or Hopper and given Ward is so limited you can add him there, throw in Coniglio, Whitfield, Bruhn, Daniels and maybe de Boer and I think the path is not an easy one.

Preseason role is pivotal for him.

Hawkins - He is what we know he is at this point. If he's fit he's a 90+ guy but he's a KPF in a team that plays, let's call it, difficult football for forwards and I still have no read on if Cameron is a help or a hinderance for him. One thing that seems likely based on history, he'll be available cheaper as an upgrade option.

That last line the key for me, with a whole bunch of guys I think present genuine value propositions it's hard to pay somewhere akin to top dollar for a guy whose upside caps out around where I think we should see 6+ guys averaging this year.

Stringer - God only knows. Durability is a bit of a mess. His career has been a mess. His role could yet be a mess but it's really hard to argue the way he finished off last season and if that lit the proverbial fire that has forever lacked with him then he could be anything. Averaged 110 over the last 10 last year, that's elite. His role clearly changed with a VERY strong focus on midfield work, especially at CB, he basically became their NicNat in that he changed the whole dynamic. They get back Caldwell and have to think Heppell goes back to the mids given their recruitment but neither of them offer anything he gives them and even with those 2 they've still only got Merrett and Parish otherwise that are good, Shiel looked done two years ago so and also doesn't offer what Stringer can.

I've basically just spent a paragraph convincing myself to take Stringer... and yet it feels disgusting and wrong. Ultimately his play style is SC candy, the role is there. Best part is he's really easy to read in the preseason, he doesn't carry laziness well so it will be very obvious if he's found the bug or just hit a hot patch.

Very strong watch because he's got a ceiling that very few others can reach.

Martin - Having not considered him as a starting pick in about 5 years, for the first time he's actually a candidate for me. He's underpriced to start with which means that even with his obligatory early season slump he's probably at about the price you'd get him in 6 weeks. How he reacts to the death of his father will be huge, if it's a big FU to the world and he shows up in shape and wants to win a Brownlow, he's a lock, like Stringer if he's not in shape it shows so will be an easy tell. I have zero read on him and how it will hit him other than it will mean something.

Richmond falling off and genuinely needing him in the midfield is a kicker here, they proved last year they can't survive without him in the midfield, especially as the other guys age.

Very high on my watchlist.

Wingard - Don't do it wogi... don't do it... Oh ****, here he is again. Has always been a 100+ guy when playing midfield and Mitchell seems to know that he's a far better midfielder than forward, especially in a weaker side.

Working against him is a genuinely bad durability record that has not trended better, the fact he's such an unlikeable turd of a human and that he's pretty expensive given how limited the sample was and how often coaches seem to throw him forward in a team killing act of desperation, even good coaches... Hopefully the plethora of options will enable me to avoid this particular kryptonite of which I'm so awfully fond.

Greene - Suspension makes him irrelevant.

Dixon - Injury looks to have done the same. Durability has actually been surprisingly good the last couple of years but the upside is borderline. There can be a case he's underpriced but will put more work into him if the injury proves to be nothing.

McEvoy - I honestly don't know here. If he's the #1 ruck, then it's hard to say no. If he's not then it's hard to say yes. Will watch closely as I don't see any reason he can't be a 95+ guy as a ruck but I think that's got to be Reeves with what he showed and their list profile.

Treloar - Another genuinely difficult read. Durability has been pretty awful the last 4 years but even then there is a 22 gamer and then the previous 5 years he was great, though being great and then falling apart is a very common theme (Deledio and Hanners come straight to mind and are very similar gut runner types). His scoring history is the obvious standout for him and his last two finals also were great but he was very mediocre otherwise last year and it's just hard to see him getting to the 30+ level consistently that he needs to score really well.

I can totally see both sides of the coin here, if you want to create the narrative for 105+ you can whilst the narrative for fairly priced is just as strong. The narrative for downside I don't think is amazing (outside injury) so I guess you're looking at a guy I personally think is outside the premium group right now but who absolutely can be right in it come season's end, really if you're buying at the bottom where you can feel fairly good that he's not going backwards, that's a good starting basis to pick him.

Does smell of that pay 89, get 89 guy though that will be very popular to me though. You're going for a lot of "ifs" on his upside. If a couple of Macrae/Bont/Dunkley/Daniel/Smith/Hunter/Libba get hurt, if he stays fit, if his role is right.

English - I don't know why but I still believe... He's at the age where Goldy worked out rucking, I think we forget just how young he was when he started and just how undersized he was, even last year, as a ruckman. Having said that he needs to show up with definition and size this year. That role is his if he wants it but his gym work has definitely left a lot to be desired, A LOT, and he needs to be more combative. His around the ground stuff is elite but he's so bad in the ruck you almost can't play him there, just needs to be average and he's a 110 potential guy.

Having said that, if he's not the clear #1 ruck, I'm not particularly interested, rather wait for the inevitable Martin injury and upgrade if he's not.

Sidey - I find it hard to craft the story but it really depends on what Macrae does with him. If he's in the midfield, he's very underpriced and Bucks clearly had it in for him last year but he's also lost a step. Basically if he's midfield or HBF I like him, if he's forward then I don't.

Walker - Keep on Walking.

McDonald - Great bounce back and actually think he's a real dark horse 95 guy but there's too many epic collapses in his possible outcomes for mine.
 
Joined
12 Dec 2012
Messages
3,069
Likes
8,653
AFL Club
Adelaide
I like to get my thoughts in writing so I'm gonna do my early thoughts on the premiums. I haven't looked at byes, I haven't been following preseason to know who is injured yet other than the last page of the thread (Dixon/Fantasia basically) but whatever...

I'm definitely finding this the hardest position to pick and easily the hardest I've seen it in years. So many guys have genuine upside cases that are very strong whether you look at the top or the middle of the list.

Dunkley - He's kind of in the exact same spot he was last season, albeit a bit more expensive. He's underpriced when fit and in the right role and he's overpriced under any other situation.

Can he stay fit? It sure doesn't seem like it at this point and he's definitely in the injury prone group, I'm still undecided if many different injuries or one repeated on is worse but he's played 20+ games once in his career and last year the preseason was basically perfect so even that kicker is compromised.

End of the day, if he's in the top midfield rotation and fit, he's worth a punt because his upside is unmatched. I think he'll be in my team until either of those is no longer true.



Duncan - Another very interesting option. He's underpriced but not considerably so. He's durable until the last two seasons and just turned 30 so not the best trend to be on there. He's proven he scores regardless of role, in fact I think there's a very good case for him to make the Kade Simpson progression to half back (he already spends most of his time there anyway) and I think like Simpson or Boyd he can score at an elite level there (110+).

I really like him as a pick at this point, it's weird that durability is really my only concern here. I think he's got enough value to make that a fair risk at this point.


Taranto - The most enigmatic player of them all. He's either basically an ironman or Mr Glass who misses half a season, basically the glass half full/empty personification for durability. He can't kick, at all, but he basically does everything else you'd want. He doesn't offer much out of position and his midfield is absolutely packed with more talented guys that can kick or that are even harder than he is and basically all they've drafted the last few years are kids to go through there.

The positional aspect really scares me, he was really decent as a forward last year but he's a poor man's Toby Greene and he's struggled to reach premium levels, especially in a year where that looks like being 100+, so that's a hard sell as a role for mine given the other names and that the truly woeful kicking caps him even in the best case of pure midfield.

On the flipside, his age profile is perfect and a 2nd straight perfect preseason would be a strong kicker.

He's absolutely on the radar but I have to say he's personally on the lower end of mine. Outside Cameron being a terrible coach I can't find any good reason he gets midfield minutes ahead of Green, Kelly or Hopper and given Ward is so limited you can add him there, throw in Coniglio, Whitfield, Bruhn, Daniels and maybe de Boer and I think the path is not an easy one.

Preseason role is pivotal for him.

Hawkins - He is what we know he is at this point. If he's fit he's a 90+ guy but he's a KPF in a team that plays, let's call it, difficult football for forwards and I still have no read on if Cameron is a help or a hinderance for him. One thing that seems likely based on history, he'll be available cheaper as an upgrade option.

That last line the key for me, with a whole bunch of guys I think present genuine value propositions it's hard to pay somewhere akin to top dollar for a guy whose upside caps out around where I think we should see 6+ guys averaging this year.

Stringer - God only knows. Durability is a bit of a mess. His career has been a mess. His role could yet be a mess but it's really hard to argue the way he finished off last season and if that lit the proverbial fire that has forever lacked with him then he could be anything. Averaged 110 over the last 10 last year, that's elite. His role clearly changed with a VERY strong focus on midfield work, especially at CB, he basically became their NicNat in that he changed the whole dynamic. They get back Caldwell and have to think Heppell goes back to the mids given their recruitment but neither of them offer anything he gives them and even with those 2 they've still only got Merrett and Parish otherwise that are good, Shiel looked done two years ago so and also doesn't offer what Stringer can.

I've basically just spent a paragraph convincing myself to take Stringer... and yet it feels disgusting and wrong. Ultimately his play style is SC candy, the role is there. Best part is he's really easy to read in the preseason, he doesn't carry laziness well so it will be very obvious if he's found the bug or just hit a hot patch.

Very strong watch because he's got a ceiling that very few others can reach.

Martin - Having not considered him as a starting pick in about 5 years, for the first time he's actually a candidate for me. He's underpriced to start with which means that even with his obligatory early season slump he's probably at about the price you'd get him in 6 weeks. How he reacts to the death of his father will be huge, if it's a big FU to the world and he shows up in shape and wants to win a Brownlow, he's a lock, like Stringer if he's not in shape it shows so will be an easy tell. I have zero read on him and how it will hit him other than it will mean something.

Richmond falling off and genuinely needing him in the midfield is a kicker here, they proved last year they can't survive without him in the midfield, especially as the other guys age.

Very high on my watchlist.

Wingard - Don't do it wogi... don't do it... Oh ****, here he is again. Has always been a 100+ guy when playing midfield and Mitchell seems to know that he's a far better midfielder than forward, especially in a weaker side.

Working against him is a genuinely bad durability record that has not trended better, the fact he's such an unlikeable turd of a human and that he's pretty expensive given how limited the sample was and how often coaches seem to throw him forward in a team killing act of desperation, even good coaches... Hopefully the plethora of options will enable me to avoid this particular kryptonite of which I'm so awfully fond.

Greene - Suspension makes him irrelevant.

Dixon - Injury looks to have done the same. Durability has actually been surprisingly good the last couple of years but the upside is borderline. There can be a case he's underpriced but will put more work into him if the injury proves to be nothing.

McEvoy - I honestly don't know here. If he's the #1 ruck, then it's hard to say no. If he's not then it's hard to say yes. Will watch closely as I don't see any reason he can't be a 95+ guy as a ruck but I think that's got to be Reeves with what he showed and their list profile.

Treloar - Another genuinely difficult read. Durability has been pretty awful the last 4 years but even then there is a 22 gamer and then the previous 5 years he was great, though being great and then falling apart is a very common theme (Deledio and Hanners come straight to mind and are very similar gut runner types). His scoring history is the obvious standout for him and his last two finals also were great but he was very mediocre otherwise last year and it's just hard to see him getting to the 30+ level consistently that he needs to score really well.

I can totally see both sides of the coin here, if you want to create the narrative for 105+ you can whilst the narrative for fairly priced is just as strong. The narrative for downside I don't think is amazing (outside injury) so I guess you're looking at a guy I personally think is outside the premium group right now but who absolutely can be right in it come season's end, really if you're buying at the bottom where you can feel fairly good that he's not going backwards, that's a good starting basis to pick him.

Does smell of that pay 89, get 89 guy though that will be very popular to me though. You're going for a lot of "ifs" on his upside. If a couple of Macrae/Bont/Dunkley/Daniel/Smith/Hunter/Libba get hurt, if he stays fit, if his role is right.

English - I don't know why but I still believe... He's at the age where Goldy worked out rucking, I think we forget just how young he was when he started and just how undersized he was, even last year, as a ruckman. Having said that he needs to show up with definition and size this year. That role is his if he wants it but his gym work has definitely left a lot to be desired, A LOT, and he needs to be more combative. His around the ground stuff is elite but he's so bad in the ruck you almost can't play him there, just needs to be average and he's a 110 potential guy.

Having said that, if he's not the clear #1 ruck, I'm not particularly interested, rather wait for the inevitable Martin injury and upgrade if he's not.

Sidey - I find it hard to craft the story but it really depends on what Macrae does with him. If he's in the midfield, he's very underpriced and Bucks clearly had it in for him last year but he's also lost a step. Basically if he's midfield or HBF I like him, if he's forward then I don't.

Walker - Keep on Walking.

McDonald - Great bounce back and actually think he's a real dark horse 95 guy but there's too many epic collapses in his possible outcomes for mine.
Great read, no Butters?
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,770
Likes
26,259
AFL Club
Sydney
My old 10,000 word friend...

De Goey - Depends on where he's at to start the season BUT if he's there round 1 he's very hard to pass up. Harvey worked out that he's a midfielder and he blossomed averaging 110 over those 8 games, another that Bucks didn't seem to like last year as he ended up marooned up forward in a team getting smashed through the guts.

Durability is a mess. Attitude is an issue. Like Wingard he seems to be a pretty awful person but he's 110+ capable and he's pure SC gold in how he plays. I also think the Pies are a much better side than they played to last year.

I think if he's there round 1, I'm going to die on this hill...

Buddy - No.

Bailey - I can see the case but basically he scores well when Neale, Berry and Zorko are out last year and he gets midfield burn. I'm not sure where the minutes or role comes from so you're 100% on natural progression. I really rate him but I reckon it's next year when him and Zorko switch roles.

Wouldn't begrudge anyone who took the punt this year if it came off though, he's going to be a gun.

Thomas - Another on the epic finishers group. Cunnington's unfortunate illness probably has the midfield minutes held open though I don't really think his dynamism was at risk to him anyway. 97 average over his last 12 and 109 over the last 5 and honestly didn't feel like he was doing anything "special" to get there. There was nothing he did that wasn't sustainable, his role should improve, he's too talented for them to hide him, another preseason should raise his floor (still an issue) and I think with the confidence shot from LY in a side that I personally think can be very competitive this year he should score very well.


Basically put aside the first 35 games that were a squibby mess and back the 12 games where he looked to have worked it out is all you have to do to easily pick him.

Value is extreme here, I think 100+ is definitely a highly possible outcome and that 105+ is not an extreme projection.

Bolton - I honestly have no clue here. Everything was there last year for him to go huge and he just didn't. He's such a scumbag that it's hard to get around him but his talent level is extreme and like I said with Martin they kind of need more from him through the midfield.

I'll be watching very closely because I think there's a 95+ guy in there pretty easily and realistically he's got 100+ talent. Think given some of the other options that have actually proven it, albeit for short periods, that he's more of an upgrade watch right now.

Graham - Interesting he got FWD tag for mine, not a guy I'd have considered for it at all but here we are. He's got as much potential as anyone on this list, I think you could make a very strong case for a Dunkley 2019 type of season for him, his good is very good but his bad games are horrific but he's at that point where he really should be their main inside midfielder this year, it just seems like it's his role to lose going into the season. Has always reminded me of JPK as a player.

He's probably higher on my watch list than just about anyone else has him but he's definitely on my radar.

Gray - No thanks.

Heeney - And here we are again... For all my criticism of Horse, he's been extremely honest when it comes to positions. For years he said Mills and Heeney wouldn't play midfield and they didn't outside sporadic bursts, last year he said Mills would and he did. This year he says Heeney will and I believe him. Dawson was playing as an attacking winger for the last 10ish rounds last year and was the best in the league at the role but Heeney was also getting some burn on the other wing and his scoring took a nice bounce to 100 for the last 7 games.

He's got 115+ scoring potential playing as a genuine midfielder, as a winger I think that's more in the ~105 area, he does literally everything from a SC perspective at an elite level and all that has restricted him is Horse playing him in very difficult and limiting roles and, do I really need to say it...

Needs a perfect preseason, something he's never done. If he does that I find it hard to not have him locked in given the upside. Hewett and Dawson is two genuine midfield roles from last year's side opened. JPK was on his last legs 3 years ago. Mills is our best midfielder and Heeney has the potential to be even better, imo. All I know is that if Heeney can push Parker to the 3rd best midfielder then the Swans can go places this year, as huge a loss as Dawson was (what a steal for Adelaide if they can use him right, aka don't play him at HF).

Put it this way, with no preseason, playing out of position, in a relatively poor side and constantly getting hurt he'd been a 94-98 for 4 straight years, even if he only gets back to that, he's a winning pick.

And yes... durability.

Wright - Not my hill.

Butters - As if there weren't already way too many options. The way he started last year was 100% the quality of player he is. The injury is a worry and it remains a concern given how undersized he is for such a hard nut but I love him as a player, he seems like the kind of clint that you want on your team and would love as a teammate.

Another who I absolutely think can go 100+ if he stays fit. Port keep falling flat because their midfield isn't good enough and he's the plain and obvious answer to that.

Rate him super highly.

Cameron - There's a case here but given some of the other options, it's not one I'm going to make.

Snelling - He's that Jarryd Lyon guy where we all salivate over the super exciting, explosive and classy guys that I've named above and then the little worker bee just grunts his way to being the correct answer. Maybe it's just that every time I'd take him in DF he'd score 50 and every time I didn't he'd get 85+ but I noticed him. He does a lot of good things, wouldn't surprise me one bit if he ended up with a more genuine midfield role and average 95+...

Still not on my radar though :LOL:

Reid/Membrey/Higgins/Elliott - Nope.

Daniher - Like Cameron, I think there's a very good case here but I think it's a 95 type ceiling in a sea of 100+ options and it's got as much downside risk as any of them so not really worth it. Wouldn't shock me at all though.

Stephenson - Hard to tell, felt like he and Thomas switch roles a bit and the side was better for it last year so expect that to continue. I think he's a bit more limited on the upside potential than most of this list, thus he's not really on my radar but I do think a low 90s is not beyond him.

McCarthy/Moore/Lambert - I think their role is just a bit limiting at this point, there's a bit of upside but not enough, they're guys where 85 seems a very strong season at this point.

McKay - Breakout year, draft league I'd be all over him and think he's going to probably go 90+ this year BUT that's not enough this year, imo and he's not that much cheaper than several of the guys I think can be 100+ and would back to do it before I went McKay.

Gulden - The potential is definitely there but I think it's a year or two too early but I wouldn't be shocked if he does it, just seems to be that kind of personality and everything he does is so classy it should be good for SC. I worry he might be a bit too much like Merrett or Sam Mitchell where their ability to elude players to effectively hurts them in SC where forcing contact is a far more desireable skill. The Merrett comparison remains though, I think that's what he should be aspiring to be long term.

Ladhams - If Hickey is injured and he's the #1, then he'd be a lock, I really rate him as a fantasy ruck. He's fairly priced as the R2 though.
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,770
Likes
26,259
AFL Club
Sydney
That's the top 40 coming in... The following are some other names I like a lot...

J. Anderson - Proven upside is enormous but I worry he's been passed by the younger more talented guys and that there's still another 3 of them to pass him that could all do it this year and he's been downright anemic as a scorer in roles outside that inside midfield role.

Preseason will say a lot for him, if the role looks to be there he's too cheap to not pick, if it's in doubt then he's fairly priced. Durability is also a wreck.

Weller/Rozee - Cocktease talents that could be 100 guys in the right roles but I don't see either having them. Dew just doesn't seem to like Weller for whatever reason and Rozee is behind so many guys and the best as a forward as well.

Jackson - There's a case here but I just can't see them not taking advantage of Gawn, especially early in the year to set themselves up to defend the flag, they're going to have to learn about being the hunted now. Basically it wouldn't surprise me at all if he got to 90 but I'm not backing it and I don't think that's enough.

Pickett - Similar story to Jackson. Not enough upside, not enough opportunity for role increase.

J. Martin - Such a waste of talent, will watch to see how Voss uses him but similar to the above two, it's hard to see better than 90 really at this point and I don't think that's enough.

T. Powell - Not sure why he got forward status, almost like they mixed him and Phillips up, but his class was evident, in a normal year I reckon I'd take him but the recurring theme is that I think the ceiling this year is very high and that his 85-95 range probably isn't enough. He's pure class though and think he's got serious potential.

Walters - Have to watch him given his history but durability, age and the fact that Longmuir doesn't seem interested in him in the midfield all hard to overcome for mine. Watching but it's more cursory than focused.

Rioli - Very high on my list. He's in that range where he's cheap enough that a low 90s average is probably enough for a F6/D6 pick. Showed some real signs as a HB and they need one badly to help Short.

Will be watching very closely.

Nash - Blossomed with a midfield role to end the season. Like Rioli, he can probably survive as the F6 at his price if he puts up low 90s. Preseason would need to confirm that it's a role and not an experiment though.

Rankine - So much talent, contract year (I believe) in a team that needs him to become a star and should be bending over to assist it. Hasn't done anything yet but the talent is there.

Gresham - Has to be mentioned but I'm definitely not as high on him as others. Tough injury to return from and as someone who has had him in keeper leagues for 5 years, he's a tease, sometimes he plays well other games just doesn't even turn up and can't see that injury helping that. I can make a case for him in the midfield given their incredible lack of class but I don't know why they'd go for him ahead of Billings or Clark at the very least other than the fact that Ratten seems to hate them both.

He's probably cheap enough that low 90s works as well but durability has been an issue so that's a tough goal I think. Will watch though because the role was good to start last year.

Bianco - I loved him last year. Role is everything but I think he can also push high 80s and maybe a bit higher in the right one. I don't think he gets it this year though but will be watching still.

Rayner - Will watch but no proven scoring, big injury and a terrible history of bad training is bad combo, ACL's are challenging even for the most diligent trainers. Still, he went #1 for a reason that has yet to be shown at AFL level and the chatter is good for his role. Not for me I don't think.

K. Coleman - Might be my favourite of all the cheapies. Was excellent off half back to end last year in big games. Same narrative as Rioli but 70k cheaper. I think with Dale, Hall, Ziebell, Hind, Cumming, Hawthorn's x4 and all the main names we had a pretty strong reinforcement of how good rebounding defender is for SC...

Coniglio - Don't really need to say it here. At his price, if he's fit he's basically a lock even if playing a less than ideal position and he's an absolute lock in a good one.

If fit...

Phillips - Big preseason for him, he's an immense talent and should be averaging 100+ sooner rather than later. Not sure if he can do it this year but I'll be watching like an absolute hawk in the preseason, he makes perfect sense to slot right into Cunner's spot in the midfield and he's of the class of those other 2nd year guys who've gone BOOM, if not even higher. Last year was a write-off after his covid ruined 2020.

Brodie - Would depend a lot on Fyfe's injury creating the window as he's not a replacement for Cerra but I guess they can shuffle Mundy to be more outside again and move him inside. Be interesting if the change of scenario works here, was clearly in Dew's doghouse, the few times he actually played inside midfield in his time with the Suns he was very good. He's a very one-dimensional player who's very good at one thing, up to Freo if they decide to use him there. The question is how much of his issues at the Suns was because of him and how much was their general dysfunction and can he overcome that.

I see him as a rookie pick I guess but needs to show a lot to earn picking, might be a guy you target as a round 3 trade if he shows it rather than starting.
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,770
Likes
26,259
AFL Club
Sydney
Great read, no Butters?
Got caught out by my old mate the 10,000 word count.

Very high on my list.

Tarryn Thomas, De Goey & Butters @wogitalia ?
Haven't settled on a structure just yet but I'm definitely thinking the De Goey, Thomas, Butters and Heeney group has some serious merit this year.

Heeney is underpriced enough to o***et the durability concerns this year, a situation that hasn't existed the last few years and the projected role change just increases his ceiling by an incredible amount.

Butters has more in the way than the others but I rate him so highly.

De Goey has the least in the way, if he'd just get out of it himself, and may yet be irrelevant but, again, the ceiling for mine is just too high.

Thomas I don't think has quite the upside of the other 3 but perhaps has the least questions on the way there. Durability has been fine, progression has been logical, talent is evident. Narrative is just rock solid.

I must say though, I really like Duncan, Dunkley, Martin, Treloar and even Stringer and Wingard in the next pricing tier up, though I'm not sure I like any of them considerably more... Also finding myself very attracted to the bargain bin again with Coniglio, Rioli, Nash, Coleman and a couple of others.

For the first time in I don't know how long I genuinely think the forwards are hard to pick because of too many options instead of the usual not enough options. It's exciting but also means that you can easily end your season at round 1 if you pick the wrong 3-4 of them!
 
Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
2,559
Likes
9,517
AFL Club
Richmond
Got caught out by my old mate the 10,000 word count.

Very high on my list.



Haven't settled on a structure just yet but I'm definitely thinking the De Goey, Thomas, Butters and Heeney group has some serious merit this year.

Heeney is underpriced enough to o***et the durability concerns this year, a situation that hasn't existed the last few years and the projected role change just increases his ceiling by an incredible amount.

Butters has more in the way than the others but I rate him so highly.

De Goey has the least in the way, if he'd just get out of it himself, and may yet be irrelevant but, again, the ceiling for mine is just too high.

Thomas I don't think has quite the upside of the other 3 but perhaps has the least questions on the way there. Durability has been fine, progression has been logical, talent is evident. Narrative is just rock solid.

I must say though, I really like Duncan, Dunkley, Martin, Treloar and even Stringer and Wingard in the next pricing tier up, though I'm not sure I like any of them considerably more... Also finding myself very attracted to the bargain bin again with Coniglio, Rioli, Nash, Coleman and a couple of others.

For the first time in I don't know how long I genuinely think the forwards are hard to pick because of too many options instead of the usual not enough options. It's exciting but also means that you can easily end your season at round 1 if you pick the wrong 3-4 of them!
I think there's real value with Coleman and Rioli's DPP status, allowing me to start them in defence and linking with players like De Koning, Skinner and Kelly. Gives me a FWD line of Dunkley, Duncan, Thomas, Heeney, Cogs and a rookie, although I could save a bit of cash and add De Goey and Butters for The 2 Dunks.
 
Joined
13 Apr 2012
Messages
6,024
Likes
15,759
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Anyone care to explain the Coleman love to me? I will admit I’ve been removed from any sort of footy news since last season so I may have missed something? Seems to be in enough teams that there’s been some sort of news article about him.
 
Joined
22 Feb 2013
Messages
9,668
Likes
20,502
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Anyone care to explain the Coleman love to me? I will admit I’ve been removed from any sort of footy news since last season so I may have missed something? Seems to be in enough teams that there’s been some sort of news article about him.
Reported as looking good off half back in a preseason practice. Supposedly.
 

Bomber18

Leadership Group
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
27,409
Likes
65,138
AFL Club
Essendon
My old 10,000 word friend...

De Goey - Depends on where he's at to start the season BUT if he's there round 1 he's very hard to pass up. Harvey worked out that he's a midfielder and he blossomed averaging 110 over those 8 games, another that Bucks didn't seem to like last year as he ended up marooned up forward in a team getting smashed through the guts.

Durability is a mess. Attitude is an issue. Like Wingard he seems to be a pretty awful person but he's 110+ capable and he's pure SC gold in how he plays. I also think the Pies are a much better side than they played to last year.

I think if he's there round 1, I'm going to die on this hill...

Buddy - No.

Bailey - I can see the case but basically he scores well when Neale, Berry and Zorko are out last year and he gets midfield burn. I'm not sure where the minutes or role comes from so you're 100% on natural progression. I really rate him but I reckon it's next year when him and Zorko switch roles.

Wouldn't begrudge anyone who took the punt this year if it came off though, he's going to be a gun.

Thomas - Another on the epic finishers group. Cunnington's unfortunate illness probably has the midfield minutes held open though I don't really think his dynamism was at risk to him anyway. 97 average over his last 12 and 109 over the last 5 and honestly didn't feel like he was doing anything "special" to get there. There was nothing he did that wasn't sustainable, his role should improve, he's too talented for them to hide him, another preseason should raise his floor (still an issue) and I think with the confidence shot from LY in a side that I personally think can be very competitive this year he should score very well.


Basically put aside the first 35 games that were a squibby mess and back the 12 games where he looked to have worked it out is all you have to do to easily pick him.

Value is extreme here, I think 100+ is definitely a highly possible outcome and that 105+ is not an extreme projection.

Bolton - I honestly have no clue here. Everything was there last year for him to go huge and he just didn't. He's such a scumbag that it's hard to get around him but his talent level is extreme and like I said with Martin they kind of need more from him through the midfield.

I'll be watching very closely because I think there's a 95+ guy in there pretty easily and realistically he's got 100+ talent. Think given some of the other options that have actually proven it, albeit for short periods, that he's more of an upgrade watch right now.

Graham - Interesting he got FWD tag for mine, not a guy I'd have considered for it at all but here we are. He's got as much potential as anyone on this list, I think you could make a very strong case for a Dunkley 2019 type of season for him, his good is very good but his bad games are horrific but he's at that point where he really should be their main inside midfielder this year, it just seems like it's his role to lose going into the season. Has always reminded me of JPK as a player.

He's probably higher on my watch list than just about anyone else has him but he's definitely on my radar.

Gray - No thanks.

Heeney - And here we are again... For all my criticism of Horse, he's been extremely honest when it comes to positions. For years he said Mills and Heeney wouldn't play midfield and they didn't outside sporadic bursts, last year he said Mills would and he did. This year he says Heeney will and I believe him. Dawson was playing as an attacking winger for the last 10ish rounds last year and was the best in the league at the role but Heeney was also getting some burn on the other wing and his scoring took a nice bounce to 100 for the last 7 games.

He's got 115+ scoring potential playing as a genuine midfielder, as a winger I think that's more in the ~105 area, he does literally everything from a SC perspective at an elite level and all that has restricted him is Horse playing him in very difficult and limiting roles and, do I really need to say it...

Needs a perfect preseason, something he's never done. If he does that I find it hard to not have him locked in given the upside. Hewett and Dawson is two genuine midfield roles from last year's side opened. JPK was on his last legs 3 years ago. Mills is our best midfielder and Heeney has the potential to be even better, imo. All I know is that if Heeney can push Parker to the 3rd best midfielder then the Swans can go places this year, as huge a loss as Dawson was (what a steal for Adelaide if they can use him right, aka don't play him at HF).

Put it this way, with no preseason, playing out of position, in a relatively poor side and constantly getting hurt he'd been a 94-98 for 4 straight years, even if he only gets back to that, he's a winning pick.

And yes... durability.

Wright - Not my hill.

Butters - As if there weren't already way too many options. The way he started last year was 100% the quality of player he is. The injury is a worry and it remains a concern given how undersized he is for such a hard nut but I love him as a player, he seems like the kind of clint that you want on your team and would love as a teammate.

Another who I absolutely think can go 100+ if he stays fit. Port keep falling flat because their midfield isn't good enough and he's the plain and obvious answer to that.

Rate him super highly.

Cameron - There's a case here but given some of the other options, it's not one I'm going to make.

Snelling - He's that Jarryd Lyon guy where we all salivate over the super exciting, explosive and classy guys that I've named above and then the little worker bee just grunts his way to being the correct answer. Maybe it's just that every time I'd take him in DF he'd score 50 and every time I didn't he'd get 85+ but I noticed him. He does a lot of good things, wouldn't surprise me one bit if he ended up with a more genuine midfield role and average 95+...

Still not on my radar though :LOL:

Reid/Membrey/Higgins/Elliott - Nope.

Daniher - Like Cameron, I think there's a very good case here but I think it's a 95 type ceiling in a sea of 100+ options and it's got as much downside risk as any of them so not really worth it. Wouldn't shock me at all though.

Stephenson - Hard to tell, felt like he and Thomas switch roles a bit and the side was better for it last year so expect that to continue. I think he's a bit more limited on the upside potential than most of this list, thus he's not really on my radar but I do think a low 90s is not beyond him.

McCarthy/Moore/Lambert - I think their role is just a bit limiting at this point, there's a bit of upside but not enough, they're guys where 85 seems a very strong season at this point.

McKay - Breakout year, draft league I'd be all over him and think he's going to probably go 90+ this year BUT that's not enough this year, imo and he's not that much cheaper than several of the guys I think can be 100+ and would back to do it before I went McKay.

Gulden - The potential is definitely there but I think it's a year or two too early but I wouldn't be shocked if he does it, just seems to be that kind of personality and everything he does is so classy it should be good for SC. I worry he might be a bit too much like Merrett or Sam Mitchell where their ability to elude players to effectively hurts them in SC where forcing contact is a far more desireable skill. The Merrett comparison remains though, I think that's what he should be aspiring to be long term.

Ladhams - If Hickey is injured and he's the #1, then he'd be a lock, I really rate him as a fantasy ruck. He's fairly priced as the R2 though.
Awesome wrap mate! Nice to see you quite positive on Heeney! As a Heeney fanatic, it’ll be hard for me not to start him this season given the likely role change to the midfield
 
Top