My old 10,000 word friend...
De Goey - Depends on where he's at to start the season BUT if he's there round 1 he's very hard to pass up. Harvey worked out that he's a midfielder and he blossomed averaging 110 over those 8 games, another that Bucks didn't seem to like last year as he ended up marooned up forward in a team getting smashed through the guts.
Durability is a mess. Attitude is an issue. Like Wingard he seems to be a pretty awful person but he's 110+ capable and he's pure SC gold in how he plays. I also think the Pies are a much better side than they played to last year.
I think if he's there round 1, I'm going to die on this hill...
Buddy - No.
Bailey - I can see the case but basically he scores well when Neale, Berry and Zorko are out last year and he gets midfield burn. I'm not sure where the minutes or role comes from so you're 100% on natural progression. I really rate him but I reckon it's next year when him and Zorko switch roles.
Wouldn't begrudge anyone who took the punt this year if it came off though, he's going to be a gun.
Thomas - Another on the epic finishers group. Cunnington's unfortunate illness probably has the midfield minutes held open though I don't really think his dynamism was at risk to him anyway. 97 average over his last 12 and 109 over the last 5 and honestly didn't feel like he was doing anything "special" to get there. There was nothing he did that wasn't sustainable, his role should improve, he's too talented for them to hide him, another preseason should raise his floor (still an issue) and I think with the confidence shot from LY in a side that I personally think can be very competitive this year he should score very well.
Basically put aside the first 35 games that were a squibby mess and back the 12 games where he looked to have worked it out is all you have to do to easily pick him.
Value is extreme here, I think 100+ is definitely a highly possible outcome and that 105+ is not an extreme projection.
Bolton - I honestly have no clue here. Everything was there last year for him to go huge and he just didn't. He's such a scumbag that it's hard to get around him but his talent level is extreme and like I said with Martin they kind of need more from him through the midfield.
I'll be watching very closely because I think there's a 95+ guy in there pretty easily and realistically he's got 100+ talent. Think given some of the other options that have actually proven it, albeit for short periods, that he's more of an upgrade watch right now.
Graham - Interesting he got FWD tag for mine, not a guy I'd have considered for it at all but here we are. He's got as much potential as anyone on this list, I think you could make a very strong case for a Dunkley 2019 type of season for him, his good is very good but his bad games are horrific but he's at that point where he really should be their main inside midfielder this year, it just seems like it's his role to lose going into the season. Has always reminded me of JPK as a player.
He's probably higher on my watch list than just about anyone else has him but he's definitely on my radar.
Gray - No thanks.
Heeney - And here we are again... For all my criticism of Horse, he's been extremely honest when it comes to positions. For years he said Mills and Heeney wouldn't play midfield and they didn't outside sporadic bursts, last year he said Mills would and he did. This year he says Heeney will and I believe him. Dawson was playing as an attacking winger for the last 10ish rounds last year and was the best in the league at the role but Heeney was also getting some burn on the other wing and his scoring took a nice bounce to 100 for the last 7 games.
He's got 115+ scoring potential playing as a genuine midfielder, as a winger I think that's more in the ~105 area, he does literally everything from a SC perspective at an elite level and all that has restricted him is Horse playing him in very difficult and limiting roles and, do I really need to say it...
Needs a perfect preseason, something he's never done. If he does that I find it hard to not have him locked in given the upside. Hewett and Dawson is two genuine midfield roles from last year's side opened. JPK was on his last legs 3 years ago. Mills is our best midfielder and Heeney has the potential to be even better, imo. All I know is that if Heeney can push Parker to the 3rd best midfielder then the Swans can go places this year, as huge a loss as Dawson was (what a steal for Adelaide if they can use him right, aka don't play him at HF).
Put it this way, with no preseason, playing out of position, in a relatively poor side and constantly getting hurt he'd been a 94-98 for 4 straight years, even if he only gets back to that, he's a winning pick.
And yes... durability.
Wright - Not my hill.
Butters - As if there weren't already way too many options. The way he started last year was 100% the quality of player he is. The injury is a worry and it remains a concern given how undersized he is for such a hard nut but I love him as a player, he seems like the kind of clint that you want on your team and would love as a teammate.
Another who I absolutely think can go 100+ if he stays fit. Port keep falling flat because their midfield isn't good enough and he's the plain and obvious answer to that.
Rate him super highly.
Cameron - There's a case here but given some of the other options, it's not one I'm going to make.
Snelling - He's that Jarryd Lyon guy where we all salivate over the super exciting, explosive and classy guys that I've named above and then the little worker bee just grunts his way to being the correct answer. Maybe it's just that every time I'd take him in DF he'd score 50 and every time I didn't he'd get 85+ but I noticed him. He does a lot of good things, wouldn't surprise me one bit if he ended up with a more genuine midfield role and average 95+...
Still not on my radar though
Reid/Membrey/Higgins/Elliott - Nope.
Daniher - Like Cameron, I think there's a very good case here but I think it's a 95 type ceiling in a sea of 100+ options and it's got as much downside risk as any of them so not really worth it. Wouldn't shock me at all though.
Stephenson - Hard to tell, felt like he and Thomas switch roles a bit and the side was better for it last year so expect that to continue. I think he's a bit more limited on the upside potential than most of this list, thus he's not really on my radar but I do think a low 90s is not beyond him.
McCarthy/Moore/Lambert - I think their role is just a bit limiting at this point, there's a bit of upside but not enough, they're guys where 85 seems a very strong season at this point.
McKay - Breakout year, draft league I'd be all over him and think he's going to probably go 90+ this year BUT that's not enough this year, imo and he's not that much cheaper than several of the guys I think can be 100+ and would back to do it before I went McKay.
Gulden - The potential is definitely there but I think it's a year or two too early but I wouldn't be shocked if he does it, just seems to be that kind of personality and everything he does is so classy it should be good for SC. I worry he might be a bit too much like Merrett or Sam Mitchell where their ability to elude players to effectively hurts them in SC where forcing contact is a far more desireable skill. The Merrett comparison remains though, I think that's what he should be aspiring to be long term.
Ladhams - If Hickey is injured and he's the #1, then he'd be a lock, I really rate him as a fantasy ruck. He's fairly priced as the R2 though.