Position 2022: Midfield Discussion

[BIGB0Y]

Overloading a position has the same constant hidden cost, you lock out value in that position.

For example last year I started 4 premium defenders and jumped on Cumming in round 2/3, this locked me out of May, Daniel and a couple of other bargains during the season who were "better" targets than some of the forward/ruck/mid guys I ended up having to chase when I sought value.

The other cost of doing it in the midfield is you leave yourself far more susceptible to chaos because you have a lower starting premium count and you probably force your hand into punting on a couple of midprice guys that further increases the risk factor. When you start 11 premiums you need 11 upgrades during the year, even at the lowest conceivable end, that's 22 trades, realistically I think you're looking at closer to ~26 trades. Only takes a couple of injuries, a few dead rookies and that quickly can spiral.

Having said that, I'm definitely leaning towards the tactic right now, hardest part I'm finding is which guys to pick and how much risk I take elsewhere to try and compensate for this.

Realistically it's all a fool's game right now because the rookies will dictate if this is even possible, if we end up with 7 mid rookies and nothing anywhere else we kind of get forced into it whether we want to or not!

Agree if the rookies don’t show up. There is no premo player in the fwd line screaming pick me. The 3-4 players in the mid 400’s in the fwd line are not proven and are a gamble anyway.
In defence it’s a bit different you can pick 3-4 who will ave of the 100 mark.
In the midfield it’s stacked with guns in there prime. I think will see a record 120+ players this year.
2 premo def
6 premo mid
2 premo ruck
8 mid price’s
12 rookies
With 35 trade I think it’s very possible.

 

[Bermi]

Made a team with 6 it looks pretty good

I am really struggling to select 6 from the list below. I'm monitoring their preseason, so that may influence me?

Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Mitchell, Neale

 

[BIGB0Y]

I am really struggling to select 6 from the list below. I'm monitoring their preseason, so that may influence me?

Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Mitchell, Neale

I haven’t got petracca or miller out of that list

 

[N29]

Macrae, Steele, Oliver, Bont, Mitchell top starting picks and Neale for value. Not convinced Touk can repeat and think Walsh gets some pretty heavy attention. Merrett and Trac certainly worthy of consideration also and will be low ownership.

 

[Bermi]

I haven’t got petracca or miller out of that list

Macrae, Steele, Oliver, Bont, Mitchell top starting picks and Neale for value. Not convinced Touk can repeat and think Walsh gets some pretty heavy attention. Merrett and Trac certainly worthy of consideration also and will be low ownership.

Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Mitchell, Neale.
Currently, I would like to start with 5 of them, a tough selection for me.

Touk Miller, Walsh and to a lesser degree Petracca, don't have that high scoring average history as the other proven ones above. That could be a reason to drop them.

In the past, some Grand Final winning teams in the following year have a flat year, maybe exclude Oliver and Petracca.
Haha, look at me, how desperate I am becoming to thin down my list

 

[Tex]

Overloading a position has the same constant hidden cost, you lock out value in that position.

For example last year I started 4 premium defenders and jumped on Cumming in round 2/3, this locked me out of May, Daniel and a couple of other bargains during the season who were "better" targets than some of the forward/ruck/mid guys I ended up having to chase when I sought value.

The other cost of doing it in the midfield is you leave yourself far more susceptible to chaos because you have a lower starting premium count and you probably force your hand into punting on a couple of midprice guys that further increases the risk factor. When you start 11 premiums you need 11 upgrades during the year, even at the lowest conceivable end, that's 22 trades, realistically I think you're looking at closer to ~26 trades. Only takes a couple of injuries, a few dead rookies and that quickly can spiral.

Having said that, I'm definitely leaning towards the tactic right now, hardest part I'm finding is which guys to pick and how much risk I take elsewhere to try and compensate for this.

Realistically it's all a fool's game right now because the rookies will dictate if this is even possible, if we end up with 7 mid rookies and nothing anywhere else we kind of get forced into it whether we want to or not!

Great points mate
I've initially set up with 4,5,2,2 premiums .
And 1 is Witts. There needs to be a risk taken somewhere. I'm also taking Coniglio as a prem.
Midfield going with 5 Top prems with 6 rooks.

 

[Zagbag]

How is it that there's easily 8 mids I could happily start with fairly high confidence they won't go wrong (Steele, Macrae, Oliver, Miller, Walsh, Petracca, Titchell, Neale) but barely anyone on the other lines that doesn't have a question over them?

If it wasn't for rookies I'd just pick those guys and mid-pricer the rest

I have been down this path before. I'm thinking it was probably 2017 or so. It looked nice, and all the mids fired pretty well, but you leave yourself way too constricted when it comes upgrades. What are the chances you nail 8 of the top 12 mids? Basically zero.

There's going to be some gift upgrades that other players get along the way in the mids (e.g. an injury game affecting price, leading to a cheap premium etc.) whereas you're stuck with your 8 solid. Just too high risk.

 

[Leroy]

I have been down this path before. I'm thinking it was probably 2017 or so. It looked nice, and all the mids fired pretty well, but you leave yourself way too constricted when it comes upgrades. What are the chances you nail 8 of the top 12 mids? Basically zero.

There's going to be some gift upgrades that other players get along the way in the mids (e.g. an injury game affecting price, leading to a cheap premium etc.) whereas you're stuck with your 8 solid. Just too high risk.

@Connoisseur went to the trouble of actually drawing it up and the rest of the team looks like glass.

I guess it's because those mid-premiums really cost big dollars, you can more efficiently use the trades and starting budget by locking away some top premiums on other lines for less initial outlay.

 

[froffershanners]

Has anyone compiled CBA's round by round from last season?

Best I can find it DTTalk giving out the full year % but think the breakdown of week by week can help with research.

Thanks in advance!

 

[Professor]

Has anyone compiled CBA's round by round from last season?

Best I can find it DTTalk giving out the full year % but think the breakdown of week by week can help with research.

Thanks in advance!

Doesn't the afl website post cba's? I posted cba's for every round from the below twitter account. Unfortunately it looks like they only posted until round 17, unless they had data drop off.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1413830280964575233

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/AFLstatsmate/status/1413830280964575233

 

[froffershanners]

https://www.dfsaustralia.com/afl-cbas/

Found it!

 

[TopBillings]

https://www.dfsaustralia.com/afl-cbas/

Found it!

Cheers mate!

 

[NakinakiFC]

Bontempelli is an intriguing pick for mine. Extremely low ownership, has increased avg year on year, and unlike some of his other uber premium counterparts, has lots of room to improve his ceiling due to low accumulation for a midfielder. People forget he was averaging 130 up until round 15 before he dropped off. Whether that was due to return of Dunkley and Treloar, or his shoulder injury suffered in round 15 being a bit more serious than we were led to believe (he would go on to have his right shoulder strapped for remainder of season), I’m not sure. With the carrot of premiership captain and a Brownlow that should have been his for the taking, can’t help but think there is nothing but upside with this bloke, yet again. Guess we are spoilt for choice this year!

 

[wogitalia]

Bontempelli is an intriguing pick for mine. Extremely low ownership, has increased avg year on year, and unlike some of his other uber premium counterparts, has lots of room to improve his ceiling due to low accumulation for a midfielder. People forget he was averaging 130 up until round 15 before he dropped off. Whether that was due to return of Dunkley and Treloar, or his shoulder injury suffered in round 15 being a bit more serious than we were led to believe (he would go on to have his right shoulder strapped for remainder of season), I’m not sure. With the carrot of premiership captain and a Brownlow that should have been his for the taking, can’t help but think there is nothing but upside with this bloke, yet again. Guess we are spoilt for choice this year!

I'm finding him in my team pretty consistently.

Definitely keep leaning towards a genuine 6 premium setup but I find I keep having 3-4 names missing in it that I really want or think I will want at seasons end! 6 premium is so gutsy because if you get even 2 wrong, you're cooked.

Trying to wait for the rookie names to start to surface before tinkering too much because they're going to force my hand and then I can really look at the names I can squeeze in.

Ultimately in this game you have to find some value somewhere so the more of those genuine premiums you start the more you're hunting.

 

[Backbone]

Bontempelli is an intriguing pick for mine. Extremely low ownership, has increased avg year on year, and unlike some of his other uber premium counterparts, has lots of room to improve his ceiling due to low accumulation for a midfielder. People forget he was averaging 130 up until round 15 before he dropped off. Whether that was due to return of Dunkley and Treloar, or his shoulder injury suffered in round 15 being a bit more serious than we were led to believe (he would go on to have his right shoulder strapped for remainder of season), I’m not sure. With the carrot of premiership captain and a Brownlow that should have been his for the taking, can’t help but think there is nothing but upside with this bloke, yet again. Guess we are spoilt for choice this year!

Bont like Oliver I don’t think can get any better then they did last year. Both were on a different planet and will garner more attention. Both don’t like the tag and I think they are perfect upgrade targets. It’s why I think Touk Steele and Macrae are must owns. Steele and Touk tackle there way to scores each week and their spread gets them between 25/35 touches each game with lots of contested ball. Macrae will never get the hard tag with Bont and it frees him up to do his thing. After that I really like the trac pick, i think this year we’ll need a bit more money for rookies and I like saving 70k from Clarry to start trac. He has the potential to average 120+. The only thing stopping that is the forward time but in a good side that shouldn’t be an issue and he should get plenty of g/a and goals throughout 2022. I thought he had a decent year last year and it showed on Brownlow night. Clarry got all the 3’s and trac was erratic a bit like his scoring. Trac has another gear to go and I don’t think Oliver does which is why I’m gonna go trac. I also don’t think he hit peak form at any stage last year consistently regardless of a few absolute blinders

also on Bont he definitely copped a bad knock at the end of the west coast game he dominated. Was visible to finish the year that the shoulder was affecting him. He doesn’t miss games though so I’ll be glad to watch how he and Dunkley go early before I get him as an upgrade target under 600k.

 

[Manikato1]

So in terms of mid rookies do we need to start both The HornBag and N Daicos, assuming they show up well in the pre season. Or can we get away with one of them? They both would need to ave around mid to high 70's to be considered successful- at least for the first 7-10 games anyway. As a guide Walsh had a ball tearer of a first season and ave 86 over the year. No doubt it depends what you do with the 60 or 70k if you drop one of them back to a "standard" rookie. Lot of teams currently rolling with both.

 

[Backbone]

So in terms of mid rookies do we need to start both The HornBag and N Daicos, assuming they show up well in the pre season. Or can we get away with one of them? They both would need to ave around mid to high 70's to be considered successful- at least for the first 7-10 games anyway. As a guide Walsh had a ball tearer of a first season and ave 86 over the year. No doubt it depends what you do with the 60 or 70k if you drop one of them back to a "standard" rookie. Lot of teams currently rolling with both.

I’ve had daicos and Ward with no jhf until the last few days. The potential mid/fwd dpp Horne will get makes him a nice hold up until the last bye. Also rock solid js which is something I’m valuing more then anything with rookies this year. We simply need to pick the guys who are in the best 22, last year was horrible on selection nights cause my defender and forward rookies bar Kossie and rowe were all raffle tickets. No more highmores lol

 

[jel]

So in terms of mid rookies do we need to start both The HornBag and N Daicos, assuming they show up well in the pre season. Or can we get away with one of them? They both would need to ave around mid to high 70's to be considered successful- at least for the first 7-10 games anyway. As a guide Walsh had a ball tearer of a first season and ave 86 over the year. No doubt it depends what you do with the 60 or 70k if you drop one of them back to a "standard" rookie. Lot of teams currently rolling with both.

I'll be keeping both in my team at least until the Rd1 rookies are named.
If nothing else, they lock out some cash that I might need to get rookies that are actually playing.

 

[Manikato1]

I’ve had daicos and Ward with no jhf until the last few days. The potential mid/fwd dpp Horne will get makes him a nice hold up until the last bye. Also rock solid js which is something I’m valuing more then anything with rookies this year. We simply need to pick the guys who are in the best 22, last year was horrible on selection nights cause my defender and forward rookies bar Kossie and rowe were all raffle tickets. No more highmores lol

I'll be keeping both in my team at least until the Rd1 rookies are named.
If nothing else, they lock out some cash that I might need to get rookies that are actually playing.

Thanks guys. Both valid comments and I have them both but would love to have the 60-70k free that only having one of them would bring.

 

[wogitalia]

Definitely budgeting for the premium rookies.

Reality is that you need a couple of rookies that you can hold until the byes and after looking at the byes, both North and Collingwood are in the final bye, so even more reason for them to do it.

Basically if they play 10 games you'd expect them to make enough cash given their talent levels and that they should get opportunities at both sides they're at.

Especially given both are top tier talents who should score well.