Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion

[Herbie66]

Does Coffield's injury open up a opportunity for NWM in the Saints Best 22 ?

Or Owens if they swing the magnets around enough ?

 

[Couch Coach]

Does that mean we had 153 players with a starting price of $ 123,900.00 play last season ?

Or am I reading that wrong.

That seems a lot (unless my memory is fading faster than I realise)

Yes there was 153 players with a starting price of $123,900 or less last season (2021).

I note there are 154 players with a starting price of $123,900 or less this season (2022).

 

[dlanod]

More obvious rookie analysis from last year:

View attachment 39209

The lower the players starting price the greater likelihood that player is going to increase in value by $100K.

Generally there is a 1 in 5 chance of a sub $200K starting value player increasing by $100K.

Yes there was 153 players with a starting price of $123,900 or less last season (2021).

I note there are 154 players with a starting price of $123,900 or less this season (2022).

It would make more sense to limit it to those who play at least one game. After all (in general) we're not going to pick players who aren't even named for a game in anticipation of them making money.

 

[Herbie66]

Yes there was 153 players with a starting price of $123,900 or less last season (2021).

I note there are 154 players with a starting price of $123,900 or less this season (2022).

Oh ok but they all didn't necessarily play last season ?

That could be why I am confused.

 

[Couch Coach]

Oh ok but they all didn't necessarily play last season ?

That could be why I am confused.

Ah.

No 153 is just the number of players that started with a rookie price.

I will check what % actually played 1 or more games.

 

[Under The Dome]

JAMES Tsitas has won the race for the final spot on Gold Coast's list, edging out former top-10 draft pick Nathan Freeman.
Tsitas was informed on Monday he would be signed as a rookie under pre-season Supplemental Selection Period (SSP) rules.
The 26-year-old, a former captain and best and fairest winner with the Geelong VFL team, was the last man standing in a race that started prior to Christmas and was whittled down to he and Freeman over the past fortnight.

Freeman, who played two games with St Kilda after being drafted by Collingwood, impressed during his stint at Carrara with his powerhouse running and combative style.
But it was SANFL ball-magnet Tsitas who got the nod.


The inside midfielder averaged 28 disposals last season for Woodville-West Torrens, winning the Magarey Medal as the SANFL's best player alongside former Carlton and Adelaide star Bryce Gibbs.
After losing Will Brodie (Fremantle) and Hugh Greenwood (North Melbourne) in the off-season, the Suns have gone about bolstering their onball depth.
They drafted former Geelong midfielder Charlie Constable in November, and the addition of Tsitas should help provide cover for Touk Miller, Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Brayden Fiorini.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/702256/who-got-the-nod-suns-make-call-on-final-list-spot

 

[Couch Coach]

It would make more sense to limit it to those who play at least one game. After all (in general) we're not going to pick players who aren't even named for a game in anticipation of them making money.

Ok so after excluding the players that did not play a game the chance of selecting a rookie priced player that will increase in value by $100K or greater is now 1 in 2.

2021 Rookies
153 No. rookie priced players (less than $123,901)
87 No. did not play a game or 57%

Therefore 66 No. played at least 1 game and 32 No. created $100K+ cash generation.

I note I was excluding the Mid Season Draft Players but 3 No. actually created $100K+. Sam Durham, Jai Newcombe and Cooper Sharman therefore the data can be split to:

Starting Rookies that played 1 or more Games
29 No. of 66 No. created $100K+ = 44%

MSD Rookies that played 1 or more Games
3 No. of 6 No. created $100K+ = 50%

 

[Tranterpants]

Really interested in seeing how Caldwell goes high on my radar

Yeh, was looking for a post about him in other threads. At $266k I think he can pull mid-80s and be a good stepping stone around byes?

 

[dlanod]

Therefore 66 No. played at least 1 game and 32 No. created $100K+ cash generation.

About 50% making $100k seems reasonable. It's hard to average less than 50, so those not making it were probably due to injury or being dropped.

 

[Professor]

JAMES Tsitas has won the race for the final spot on Gold Coast's list, edging out former top-10 draft pick Nathan Freeman.
Tsitas was informed on Monday he would be signed as a rookie under pre-season Supplemental Selection Period (SSP) rules.
The 26-year-old, a former captain and best and fairest winner with the Geelong VFL team, was the last man standing in a race that started prior to Christmas and was whittled down to he and Freeman over the past fortnight.

Freeman, who played two games with St Kilda after being drafted by Collingwood, impressed during his stint at Carrara with his powerhouse running and combative style.
But it was SANFL ball-magnet Tsitas who got the nod.


The inside midfielder averaged 28 disposals last season for Woodville-West Torrens, winning the Magarey Medal as the SANFL's best player alongside former Carlton and Adelaide star Bryce Gibbs.
After losing Will Brodie (Fremantle) and Hugh Greenwood (North Melbourne) in the off-season, the Suns have gone about bolstering their onball depth.
They drafted former Geelong midfielder Charlie Constable in November, and the addition of Tsitas should help provide cover for Touk Miller, Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Brayden Fiorini.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/702256/who-got-the-nod-suns-make-call-on-final-list-spot

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490491351569682438

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/FantasyFreako/status/1490491351569682438

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490499187225796611

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePhantomSC/status/1490499187225796611

 

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490509295863013376

View: https://twitter.com/notoriousredmen/status/1490509295863013376?s=21

 

[Peter56]

When to the new players get added? Tsitas sounds like a must have.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

When to the new players get added? Tsitas sounds like a must have.

He would be a fair way down the pecking order at the moment.

When he does get added he'll more than likely be a $102,400 MID.

 

[PC]

Perfect downgrade?

 

[dlanod]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490509295863013376

View: https://twitter.com/notoriousredmen/status/1490509295863013376?s=21

I find it hard to describe any player who's not made it at AFL level by age 26 an "absolute star".

 

[Leroy]

I find it hard to describe any player who's not made it at AFL level by age 26 an "absolute star".

He probably was an absolute star by Adelaide suburbs standards.

(That might be a little harsh on the SANFL though )

 

[Socrates2]

What's the word on Finlay Macrae? He seemed to be a popular choice when prices came out but not so popular now.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Does Coffield's injury open up a opportunity for NWM in the Saints Best 22 ?

Or Owens if they swing the magnets around enough ?

I wouldnt think so they have a ton of that type of player before Milera even enters the conversation

 

[Stormzy]

What's the word on Finlay Macrae? He seemed to be a popular choice when prices came out but not so popular now.

Was seen to be playing a wing role in the practice matches so must have fallen off him myself included. If he does get that starting mid role I'll be straight back on

 

[Wheedus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490491351569682438

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/FantasyFreako/status/1490491351569682438

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490499187225796611

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePhantomSC/status/1490499187225796611

Was a ball magnet as a junior and was bloody unlucky not to get picked up in his draft year. Great to see him finally make it onto an AFL list. Awesome story.