2022: AFL SC Player Discussions
- Thread starter Darkie
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Taggers are usually free to chase the ball in preseason games so unless we get JLo's word that he won't be tagging we won't know. It would be nice to start him at $489k if we knew that but there's already a big squeeze for spots in the mids. If it looks like he's been freed up he might still be a good trade in just below $550k anyway which he should stay under for a while.
He was freed up late in the season and he's way too good to stay as a tagger long term. Similar to a Steele or Touk type where they learn valuable lessons doing it but they're just way too good to stay with it.
To be fair, those are some epic comparison players and while I do think he's capable of their level in a couple of years, I'm not sold he can get there this year. Feel like 115 would be a pretty outstanding effort from him and that would be aiming for an M8, admittedly at great value. Realistically though I'd think that the 108 he closed with is close to what he's likely to produce in a strong season and that's starting to get a bit on the low end unless you think the midfielders are falling apart this year at the top.
Love him as a player but have a much harder time creating a narrative where he works as a fantasy pick this year. Developmentally I reckon he's a solid year behind Walsh, so the logical jump from his 84 last year would be towards the 101 Walsh had in his second year. Next year he's really good shout at 115 if things go to plan though.
To be fair, those are some epic comparison players and while I do think he's capable of their level in a couple of years, I'm not sold he can get there this year. Feel like 115 would be a pretty outstanding effort from him and that would be aiming for an M8, admittedly at great value. Realistically though I'd think that the 108 he closed with is close to what he's likely to produce in a strong season and that's starting to get a bit on the low end unless you think the midfielders are falling apart this year at the top.
Love him as a player but have a much harder time creating a narrative where he works as a fantasy pick this year. Developmentally I reckon he's a solid year behind Walsh, so the logical jump from his 84 last year would be towards the 101 Walsh had in his second year. Next year he's really good shout at 115 if things go to plan though.
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With the extra 5 trades is it more viable starting a player like Serong who we feel is underpriced but not quite top 8 material.
My theory behind this in my head and without diving too deeply is that Serong becomes a "luxury" upgrade post completing your team around the byes.
Freo have the round 14 bye so you have 13 weeks of Serong at say 105 which is 20 points above what you paid for him and then upgrade him to a player who has already had their bye who we see as a top 8 mid eg Macrae and get the 115-125 for the next 10 weeks.
Hoping someone smarter than me can either shut this theory down or provide some more rounded analysis as to why this would or wouldn't work.
My theory behind this in my head and without diving too deeply is that Serong becomes a "luxury" upgrade post completing your team around the byes.
Freo have the round 14 bye so you have 13 weeks of Serong at say 105 which is 20 points above what you paid for him and then upgrade him to a player who has already had their bye who we see as a top 8 mid eg Macrae and get the 115-125 for the next 10 weeks.
Hoping someone smarter than me can either shut this theory down or provide some more rounded analysis as to why this would or wouldn't work.
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Why did they give us more trades is the question? They expect a spike in short term injuries (covid) which could hit teams en masse, leading to SCer's complaining when they cop a donut. to compensate you they have given you 5 more trades. Unless a game is completely called off, unlikely we see more trades.
30 trades has always been enough to get through a season so the question is would you normally do this play?
The odds of picking a breakout that is a keeper is pretty low, particularly in the mids from a sub 500k player. So in the end you are still behind or ahead of others if it comes off, whether 30 or 35 trades.
Serong is a gun and junior stats support him. Fyfe comes back into mids as does Tucker now, Cerra out. I would expect Serong tagging days are behind him.
Walsh did 87, 101, 117
Serong 82, 83. Last 3 he did 117.
We saw a little bit the same from Brayshaw, consistency often the issue. Think 103-108 is quite possible if no tagging role. Better off backing in Heeney, Butter, Sicily and/or Whitfield on lines where the hurdle is lower. Several moving parts that are hard to nailed down.
30 trades has always been enough to get through a season so the question is would you normally do this play?
The odds of picking a breakout that is a keeper is pretty low, particularly in the mids from a sub 500k player. So in the end you are still behind or ahead of others if it comes off, whether 30 or 35 trades.
Serong is a gun and junior stats support him. Fyfe comes back into mids as does Tucker now, Cerra out. I would expect Serong tagging days are behind him.
Walsh did 87, 101, 117
Serong 82, 83. Last 3 he did 117.
We saw a little bit the same from Brayshaw, consistency often the issue. Think 103-108 is quite possible if no tagging role. Better off backing in Heeney, Butter, Sicily and/or Whitfield on lines where the hurdle is lower. Several moving parts that are hard to nailed down.
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"Luxury" upgrades is just a nice way of saying player that is killing my season slightly less than a "real" upgrade...
If you're using the extra trades to fix problems while others are using them to upgrade, you're falling behind.
I don't even hate the Serong pick, there can certainly be a case made for him going 110+ and at his price, assuming M8 cutoff is around 115, that would absolutely work as a pick but there's a pretty wide range between his starting price and that point that really doesn't work as a pick. You've essentially given up a shot at a premium on other lines for a midprice pick that doesn't make enough cash.
Serong has to be picked for keeper potential, you have to genuinely believe that's possible. If you do, go for it, if you don't there's just better ways to spend that money.
I think a lot of people are getting fixated on extra trades without thinking about the reason we have them, COVID is almost certainly going to cause some issues, until our governments get with the times on it and start to remove this case/isolate stupidity it's going to be impossible to avoid it hitting SC really hard and not many of the governments, especially VIC and WA where a sizeable amount of the AFL is based, are interested in doing that. There's a very real chance that despite the 5 extra trades we really have 5 trades less this season to actually use, especially if your team is lacking depth.
If you're using the extra trades to fix problems while others are using them to upgrade, you're falling behind.
I don't even hate the Serong pick, there can certainly be a case made for him going 110+ and at his price, assuming M8 cutoff is around 115, that would absolutely work as a pick but there's a pretty wide range between his starting price and that point that really doesn't work as a pick. You've essentially given up a shot at a premium on other lines for a midprice pick that doesn't make enough cash.
Serong has to be picked for keeper potential, you have to genuinely believe that's possible. If you do, go for it, if you don't there's just better ways to spend that money.
I think a lot of people are getting fixated on extra trades without thinking about the reason we have them, COVID is almost certainly going to cause some issues, until our governments get with the times on it and start to remove this case/isolate stupidity it's going to be impossible to avoid it hitting SC really hard and not many of the governments, especially VIC and WA where a sizeable amount of the AFL is based, are interested in doing that. There's a very real chance that despite the 5 extra trades we really have 5 trades less this season to actually use, especially if your team is lacking depth.
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If we had to guess now what's going to happen, apart from WA, I think we're not far away from "living with COVID". Get vaccinated, go to hospital if you're sick and everyone else just keep living. The only players who will miss games are those that get sick. No such thing as a close contact. Queensland has now scrapped the QR check in for everything except licensed venues and the like.
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If he's playing as a KPD he'd be viable, likes to play the ball, uses it decently and Lloyd is always looking for someone to kick it 14m to and get a handball back from!
I'd hope there are better options and he still has to win that spot, which I think he's starting from 3rd in a 3 man race right now, but he's worth watching.
I'd hope there are better options and he still has to win that spot, which I think he's starting from 3rd in a 3 man race right now, but he's worth watching.
I hope he takes his opportunity as I have family that know him from his Falcons days and from all reports hes a ripping bloke, just not sure he defends as comfortably at senior level as he did in the VFL theres a pretty drastic difference in quality IMHO, not sure the scoring output or general performance warranting his spot in the best 22 will be there which you really need when a rookie is slightly inflated in value.