Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion

[pizza safety]

Assuming the pre season reports are true I can't remember so many quality rookies, and just above rookie price returning players, since the expansion years.
And we know the first wave are often the best. What does the second wave look like?
What about loading up on cash cows and banking some money to start the year?

I'm not so convinced yet that we have a quality wave of rookies, we do have more mids than usual who were drafted high, which is great.

I think clubs typically talk up new players and that might be part of what's going on but the fact remains a lot of these high drafted Victorian players have not played very much for two years.

Back in the days of the prospectus I would use the scoring of the U/18 championships as the best indicator of success as a rookie in Supercoach because it showed how well they faired against the best players at their age. In recent years players like Rowell, Walsh, Jack Higgins and Serong all performed highly at that level, other players like Andrew Brayshaw and LDU performed far better in the state leagues than they did in the U/18 champs, indicating to me that they were rawer as talents. This seemed to translate very well to AFL success early on.

Now that data is missing for two straight seasons I feel like we're really playing a bit of a guessing game and even the players people are picking and touting who scored well at state level (Hobbs and Ward) played against other guys who had barely played for two years, how good were they versus the players from across the country? we don't know.

I think I've come to accept that Daicos is such a talent that he will overcome the lack of games the past two years but I have concerns for the other expensive vic rookies below his price. And I'm not saying Hobbs and Ward can't score well but they may be more likely to score around the 50-55 range than in the 65+ range. I'm also not convinced that either have incredible job security or see significant mid time, if Essendon cops a couple of midfield injuries my estimation of Hobbs's scoring potential would be way up, but as it is he's a clearance machine in juniors who is unlikely to get much midfield time in a side with a lot of depth there.

At the moment I'm happy to pay up for JHF and Daicos as expensive first year players but don't trust anyone else to be worth it over 150K. Erasmus is another worth watching being a WAFL player in a Fremantle side depleted of midfielders (he was injured a lot 2021 but got to play in 2020). Otherwise I trust guys like Dylan Stephens and Hinge as mature aged cash cows.

A lot to play out in practice matches but the things needed to convince me that we have a brilliant crop of rookies aren't here yet.

 

[RIAL]

The supply of rookies look to be quite decent this year?

 

[Shannon]

 

[dlanod]

The supply of rookies look to be quite decent this year?

I wonder if the basically abandoned 2020 draft means better options this year, and more spots to fill this year because of fewer 2020 draftees with a year and a couple of games under their belt.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

I'm not so convinced yet that we have a quality wave of rookies, we do have more mids than usual who were drafted high, which is great.

I think clubs typically talk up new players and that might be part of what's going on but the fact remains a lot of these high drafted Victorian players have not played very much for two years.

Back in the days of the prospectus I would use the scoring of the U/18 championships as the best indicator of success as a rookie in Supercoach because it showed how well they faired against the best players at their age. In recent years players like Rowell, Walsh, Jack Higgins and Serong all performed highly at that level, other players like Andrew Brayshaw and LDU performed far better in the state leagues than they did in the U/18 champs, indicating to me that they were rawer as talents. This seemed to translate very well to AFL success early on.

Now that data is missing for two straight seasons I feel like we're really playing a bit of a guessing game and even the players people are picking and touting who scored well at state level (Hobbs and Ward) played against other guys who had barely played for two years, how good were they versus the players from across the country? we don't know.

I think I've come to accept that Daicos is such a talent that he will overcome the lack of games the past two years but I have concerns for the other expensive vic rookies below his price. And I'm not saying Hobbs and Ward can't score well but they may be more likely to score around the 50-55 range than in the 65+ range. I'm also not convinced that either have incredible job security or see significant mid time, if Essendon cops a couple of midfield injuries my estimation of Hobbs's scoring potential would be way up, but as it is he's a clearance machine in juniors who is unlikely to get much midfield time in a side with a lot of depth there.

At the moment I'm happy to pay up for JHF and Daicos as expensive first year players but don't trust anyone else to be worth it over 150K. Erasmus is another worth watching being a WAFL player in a Fremantle side depleted of midfielders (he was injured a lot 2021 but got to play in 2020). Otherwise I trust guys like Dylan Stephens and Hinge as mature aged cash cows.

A lot to play out in practice matches but the things needed to convince me that we have a brilliant crop of rookies aren't here yet.

Really like this.

Traditionally, the older, more physically mature cash cows have at least matched the younger high draft picks. Yet apparently this year it is all going to change?

In the backline you have the following guys who are all a reasonable chance to play early:

Hinge 23
Kemp 20
Dean 20
Boyd 23
SDK 21
McDonagh 25
Kelly 21

All cost below Ward at $180,000 and 5 are basement priced. Even O'Driscoll has had an extra year in the system. But all the hype is about first year mids, who in some cases have played little footy for 2 years and cost significantly more?

If Gibcus gets the prime 3rd tall intercept role, I reckon he is a good chance to match the expensive mids for scoring as well.

 

[sethlad]

Quite a few here seem bullish on Gibcus.
Can't see it myself at the price,not many 1st year players step straight into an intercepting role at this level. Don't doubt his talent & thrilled we chose him but I'd be thinking it's a couple of years before he's SC relevant.

 

[NT.Thunder]

What's the latest on Gould, looking forward to carrying him for the season on the bench not to play a game

 

[Shannon]

 

[pizza safety]

View attachment 39538

Interesting one he is. Many have noted the Port backline is a little small with Jones and Clurey both a bit undersized, most teams would rather just have the one key defender at that height. Jonas and Allir Allir are both locked in the side and both give them height, so unless they play Skinner with all four these other guys which I doubt I think he'd be competing with Jones and Clurey for a spot. Height matters but I'd think he'd be one down in the pecking order?

 

[Herbie66]

Interesting one he is. Many have noted the Port backline is a little small with Jones and Clurey both a bit undersized, most teams would rather just have the one key defender at that height. Jonas and Allir Allir are both locked in the side and both give them height, so unless they play Skinner with all four these other guys which I doubt I think he'd be competing with Jones and Clurey for a spot. Height matters but I'd think he'd be one down in the pecking order?

Jonas is 1.88 m

 

[pizza safety]

Jonas is 1.88 m

You're right I got his and Clurey's height twisted, that likely means it's between Skinner and Jones if they want Skinner in for extra height.

 

[Herbie66]

You're right I got his and Clurey's height twisted, that likely means it's between Skinner and Jones if they want Skinner in for extra height.

Imagine McKenzie plays + Burton , DBJ & Houston.

Bergman & Bonner will be in the mix as well.

They have to many options down back.

 

[TopBillings]

Imagine McKenzie plays + Burton , DBJ & Houston.

Bergman & Bonner will be in the mix as well.

They have to many options down back.

Break glass in case of emergency type

Wonder if Sinn can crack it on the wing come round 1

 

[Herbie66]

Break glass in case of emergency type

Wonder if Sinn can crack it on the wing come round 1

No idea to be honest , depends if they are shifting Amon and/or Duursma.

Boak , Drew & Wines in the middle.

Butters , Gray & Rozee up forward.

SPP on the bench , Motlop probably as well.

Not a lot of room left

 

[wogitalia]

Quite a few here seem bullish on Gibcus.
Can't see it myself at the price,not many 1st year players step straight into an intercepting role at this level. Don't doubt his talent & thrilled we chose him but I'd be thinking it's a couple of years before he's SC relevant.

Don't think he needs any kind of intercept role to be relevant. If he's clear best 22 in a defensive role he should be solid. A guy like Butts made 160k last year and I'd imagine a similar role for him.

The thing with the younger KP types is they end up being the player that gets targeted and there's really no negative for getting beaten but every spoil, every contest won, every tackle is worth points so they can rack them up pretty quickly. Ben King kicked 4 on Butts in round 3 but he still scored 95 because of the constant supply. Similarly Taberner kicked 4 on him in round 5 but he hit 81.

I'd actually be shocked if he had the intercept role but if his JS is looking good I'll not be afraid of him. Will obviously take cheaper options if they're there but Butts was a very solid pick last year and a similar profile, albeit slightly better JS but even that wasn't known early when it was thought Talia would be back sooner rather than not at all.

Interesting one he is. Many have noted the Port backline is a little small with Jones and Clurey both a bit undersized, most teams would rather just have the one key defender at that height. Jonas and Allir Allir are both locked in the side and both give them height, so unless they play Skinner with all four these other guys which I doubt I think he'd be competing with Jones and Clurey for a spot. Height matters but I'd think he'd be one down in the pecking order?

Skinner is a big bodied guy with experience at the level, was also a very high valued recruit at the Lions. Couple of injuries ruined things for him but he's AFL ready so he definitely could beat any of the challengers out. He's probably helped that both Jonas and Aliir are capable of playing small and mid roles at times. McKenzie another tweener they used on big forwards to their expense often.

The question is whether Skinner is there to hold a position or if he's more for teams with a big body forward they fear. His SANFL production was very positive but I doubt he gets the intercept role with how well Aliir manned that last year but you never know with Ken.

 

[wogitalia]

No idea to be honest , depends if they are shifting Amon and/or Duursma.

Boak , Drew & Wines in the middle.

Butters , Gray & Rozee up forward.

SPP on the bench , Motlop probably as well.

Not a lot of room left

Wouldn't shock me if they started to phase Boak out a bit, he broke down a bit last year so might be a case of trying to get him to the finals instead of riding him into the ground, he's 34 this year after all.

Can't see Gray through the middle anymore for similar reasons.

Wines a lock and Drew would make sense but those two together is very one paced. Amon was going more and more through the middle as season went on and I think it makes sense, he was doing it well but he also doesn't add a ton of breakaway ability.

Butters and Rozee would both offer a lot more explosiveness, which is why they make sense as options. Rozee needs to be physically right, still needs some size, Butters just needs to stay fit, if he could add a bit of size it wouldn't hurt either.

Duursma hasn't really bounced on and has a lot of work to do this year, would think he's at threat if a young guy is coming through and showing out because he's probably regressed since his rookie season.

Bergman was probably better than Duursma the back half of last year, so he's another who is a threat to Sinn getting a shot.

SPP I don't really get, he's like a poor mans Drew, I'd think if I was Port I'd be hoping he's not best 22 at this point. To be fair I'm not sure he ever was last year.

Lot of options for them though but if you can provide burst and ball use, I think there's value, it's a big reason they're so over reliant on Boak, he's really the only guy that has done that consistently for a couple of years now.

Actually a hard team to read.

 

[Herbie66]

Wouldn't shock me if they started to phase Boak out a bit, he broke down a bit last year so might be a case of trying to get him to the finals instead of riding him into the ground, he's 34 this year after all.

Can't see Gray through the middle anymore for similar reasons.

Wines a lock and Drew would make sense but those two together is very one paced. Amon was going more and more through the middle as season went on and I think it makes sense, he was doing it well but he also doesn't add a ton of breakaway ability.

Butters and Rozee would both offer a lot more explosiveness, which is why they make sense as options. Rozee needs to be physically right, still needs some size, Butters just needs to stay fit, if he could add a bit of size it wouldn't hurt either.

Duursma hasn't really bounced on and has a lot of work to do this year, would think he's at threat if a young guy is coming through and showing out because he's probably regressed since his rookie season.

Bergman was probably better than Duursma the back half of last year, so he's another who is a threat to Sinn getting a shot.

SPP I don't really get, he's like a poor mans Drew, I'd think if I was Port I'd be hoping he's not best 22 at this point. To be fair I'm not sure he ever was last year.

Lot of options for them though but if you can provide burst and ball use, I think there's value, it's a big reason they're so over reliant on Boak, he's really the only guy that has done that consistently for a couple of years now.

Actually a hard team to read.

Won't achieve what they want until Boak and Gray leave unfortunately as great as they both are and have been , needed to tap 1 on the shoulder at the end of last season and say thank you for your career (probably harsh , but something needs to change)

Gray is probably still in their Top 3 mids , when they get in trouble Kenny just gets him in the middle , always liked him as a player , never realised how good he actually is until I moved to Adelaide and get to watch him on the TV every week.

If he played for a Melbourne team , he would be absolutely recognised as a superstar , not many come near him for his inside work.

Outside football World has been saying for 2-3 years they need pace in the midfield , if Kenny doesn't change this season he might not get the opportunity moving forward.

Need some X-Factor in their.

Totally agree on SPP.

 

[pizza safety]

Don't think he needs any kind of intercept role to be relevant. If he's clear best 22 in a defensive role he should be solid. A guy like Butts made 160k last year and I'd imagine a similar role for him.

The thing with the younger KP types is they end up being the player that gets targeted and there's really no negative for getting beaten but every spoil, every contest won, every tackle is worth points so they can rack them up pretty quickly. Ben King kicked 4 on Butts in round 3 but he still scored 95 because of the constant supply. Similarly Taberner kicked 4 on him in round 5 but he hit 81.

I'd actually be shocked if he had the intercept role but if his JS is looking good I'll not be afraid of him. Will obviously take cheaper options if they're there but Butts was a very solid pick last year and a similar profile, albeit slightly better JS but even that wasn't known early when it was thought Talia would be back sooner rather than not at all.




Skinner is a big bodied guy with experience at the level, was also a very high valued recruit at the Lions. Couple of injuries ruined things for him but he's AFL ready so he definitely could beat any of the challengers out. He's probably helped that both Jonas and Aliir are capable of playing small and mid roles at times. McKenzie another tweener they used on big forwards to their expense often.

The question is whether Skinner is there to hold a position or if he's more for teams with a big body forward they fear. His SANFL production was very positive but I doubt he gets the intercept role with how well Aliir manned that last year but you never know with Ken.

My bad I got Clurey’s height confused with Jonas which factored into my analysis.

I feel like they only played 4 of Jonas, Allir, Clurey, McKenzie or Jones per game, so in essence is he really competing with McKenzie and Jones for the spot? Could they play 5 of these guys? it seems like too many lockdown defenders and not enough rebounding defenders.

A lot have mentioned height as a big reason for him coming in so I’d think the shorter players would be the most at risk (Jonas being safe). It’s hard to see them not wanting to get games into Jones though. Can he unseat Cleary?

 

[sethlad]

Don't think he needs any kind of intercept role to be relevant. If he's clear best 22 in a defensive role he should be solid. A guy like Butts made 160k last year and I'd imagine a similar role for him.

The thing with the younger KP types is they end up being the player that gets targeted and there's really no negative for getting beaten but every spoil, every contest won, every tackle is worth points so they can rack them up pretty quickly. Ben King kicked 4 on Butts in round 3 but he still scored 95 because of the constant supply. Similarly Taberner kicked 4 on him in round 5 but he hit 81.

I'd actually be shocked if he had the intercept role but if his JS is looking good I'll not be afraid of him. Will obviously take cheaper options if they're there but Butts was a very solid pick last year and a similar profile, albeit slightly better JS but even that wasn't known early when it was thought Talia would be back sooner rather than not at all.

The difference is Butts was 21 in a bottom team & drafted to play.
Gibcus is 18 in a top team,there's no rush with Gibcus

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Top team? 🤔

😉