Position 2022: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Also worth noting that his durability record isn't that bad, it's largely him being dropped or out of favour at the teams he's been at because his bruise free style doesn't endear him to coaches when playing roles that require a few bruises.
Luckily he's playing a role ideally suited to him in which he absolutely excelled and is genuinely underpriced. A role that also is the easiest role to remain fit playing.
He's not dissimilar to Lloyd in that he wasn't very good in other roles that require a bit more hardness but has found the perfect role for his skillset but also a glorious fantasy role.
He's not a lock but he's been my first picked all o***eason and I'd need to see evidence that McDonald, Polec and Corr are all going to have negative impacts on his scoring before I'd step away from that. Especially given I don't feel very great about the other back options right now who all have their own question mark lists as long as the one posted for Hall.
Luckily he's playing a role ideally suited to him in which he absolutely excelled and is genuinely underpriced. A role that also is the easiest role to remain fit playing.
He's not dissimilar to Lloyd in that he wasn't very good in other roles that require a bit more hardness but has found the perfect role for his skillset but also a glorious fantasy role.
He's not a lock but he's been my first picked all o***eason and I'd need to see evidence that McDonald, Polec and Corr are all going to have negative impacts on his scoring before I'd step away from that. Especially given I don't feel very great about the other back options right now who all have their own question mark lists as long as the one posted for Hall.
As above have said, the scoring pattern as a HB once he got the role is hard to ignore and he's been a staple in most of my drafts.
However, if Polec is fit and at his best (?) then I think he offers more as a wing with his kicking into the 50m than LMac ever could, even if his game is so outside he could be playing on the next ground over.
So if LMac goes to HB (as he can't really play anywhere else) then it at least puts a question mark on Hall: they'll both be hungry chip scab seagulls and might have to share.
That and I *hope* we'll have less ball in the back 50 by virtue of being a better side - supply could be reduced.
See how it looks in the praccy games, but his lockability has eased for me.
However, if Polec is fit and at his best (?) then I think he offers more as a wing with his kicking into the 50m than LMac ever could, even if his game is so outside he could be playing on the next ground over.
So if LMac goes to HB (as he can't really play anywhere else) then it at least puts a question mark on Hall: they'll both be hungry chip scab seagulls and might have to share.
That and I *hope* we'll have less ball in the back 50 by virtue of being a better side - supply could be reduced.
See how it looks in the praccy games, but his lockability has eased for me.
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I'm happy to bet against him this year. Didn't have him last year and that annoyed the sh!t out of me so I suppose my decision is motivated partly by spite. 
Every year there is a bolting forward I refuse to jump on and they become a huge source of irritation by season's end. Hall, A. Brayshaw, Simpkin have all done it to me.
I've also never had that dirty chip eating seagull Lloyd and that has cost me. But every year I still bet against him. An argument could be made that it was the right call last year where Lloyd went from and avg of 120 in 2020 to 107. The problem for me was I took Mills instead and whilst he did manage a 112 avg, he only played 18 and fell apart by seasons end so in the end it was probably a break even. Those who started Lloyd probably overpaid but he still delivered an acceptable output for the season.
Every year there is a bolting forward I refuse to jump on and they become a huge source of irritation by season's end. Hall, A. Brayshaw, Simpkin have all done it to me.
I've also never had that dirty chip eating seagull Lloyd and that has cost me. But every year I still bet against him. An argument could be made that it was the right call last year where Lloyd went from and avg of 120 in 2020 to 107. The problem for me was I took Mills instead and whilst he did manage a 112 avg, he only played 18 and fell apart by seasons end so in the end it was probably a break even. Those who started Lloyd probably overpaid but he still delivered an acceptable output for the season.
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Looking through the ownership stats of the top defenders by price and was very surprised to see Heppell in only 1.1% of teams and the clear lowest of the top 11 defenders from last year.
From all reports he has gotten through his first full pre season in a number of years and showed last year that he has really settled into that half-back role. Watching him in the intra-club earlier this week and just seems to get to the right spots to receive the footy so often and his teammates always look to use him.
Definitely on my radar for a pre season watch and think his role is pretty much bullet proof which can't be said for many of the top defenders.
From all reports he has gotten through his first full pre season in a number of years and showed last year that he has really settled into that half-back role. Watching him in the intra-club earlier this week and just seems to get to the right spots to receive the footy so often and his teammates always look to use him.
Definitely on my radar for a pre season watch and think his role is pretty much bullet proof which can't be said for many of the top defenders.
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To continue on my discussion on Aaron Hall I note I don't like him as a pick mainly due to durability issues.
I like my starting premiums to have a good history of playing most games.
Durability table for defenders:
Aaron Hall has a career average of playing 67% of the time and a last 3 years of 69% of the time.
Therefore on history you you would be expecting to use a rookie/bench score approx. 1 out of every 3 matches. (See Rowsus for PIT average notes).
Unless you expect a 31 year old to suddenly improve their durability I don't see the point of premium $ for someone that is likely to play less than 20 games this year.
I like my starting premiums to have a good history of playing most games.
Durability table for defenders:
Aaron Hall has a career average of playing 67% of the time and a last 3 years of 69% of the time.
Therefore on history you you would be expecting to use a rookie/bench score approx. 1 out of every 3 matches. (See Rowsus for PIT average notes).
Unless you expect a 31 year old to suddenly improve their durability I don't see the point of premium $ for someone that is likely to play less than 20 games this year.
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AVE % = The players career average.
3Y % = The last 3 years (2019, 2020, 2021) % of games played.
Crisp's AVE % is let down by his first 3 years for Brisbane (2012 = 10, 2013 = 2 and 2014 = 6)
Each player will be in different career cycle. I assume a career cycle will be like a bell curve. I.e.
Initial 2-3 years in and out of the team trying to establish themselves. e.g. Nick Hind
Middle solid production and limited missed games.
Later more injury prone. e.g. Zach Tuohy
3Y % = The last 3 years (2019, 2020, 2021) % of games played.
Crisp's AVE % is let down by his first 3 years for Brisbane (2012 = 10, 2013 = 2 and 2014 = 6)
Each player will be in different career cycle. I assume a career cycle will be like a bell curve. I.e.
Initial 2-3 years in and out of the team trying to establish themselves. e.g. Nick Hind
Middle solid production and limited missed games.
Later more injury prone. e.g. Zach Tuohy
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Love you work, but if you don't exclude players who get dropped it's going to skew the numbers out quite a bit. Ridley looks injury prone because it took him so long to get into the side, but he's only missed 1 game in the last 2 years since cementing his spot.
The other argument for Hall, is that his durability issues were in more physical roles, so it's not as relevant in his new bruise free role. I personally can't stand the seagull so won't be touching him out of spite. But I can see the reasons why so many are picking him.
The other argument for Hall, is that his durability issues were in more physical roles, so it's not as relevant in his new bruise free role. I personally can't stand the seagull so won't be touching him out of spite. But I can see the reasons why so many are picking him.
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I agree with you but it's a fine line between dropped and managed. It's hard enough knowing now if a player is injured or dropped let alone trawling through past years (16 in Hurn's case) trying to get that information. I hoped that the 3Y % would give a more current view of a players durability.
I note durability does not just have to mean the ability not to get injured. It can also be about playing through small injuries and also the ability to not drop your playing standard so that you get excluded from the team "dropped".
I note durability does not just have to mean the ability not to get injured. It can also be about playing through small injuries and also the ability to not drop your playing standard so that you get excluded from the team "dropped".