2022: AFL SC Player Discussions

[wogitalia]

In some ways it's a similar story to Hall last year, although unlike Hall Polec has actually played in a decent side for part of his career. Both are potentially damaging, contest averse receiver types who've only ever run one way. They're not the kind of senior player you really want running around doing as they please while younger players are left to take up the defensive slack.

That said, North's lack of options at half back gave Hall a chance last season so the same could happen on the wing for Polec. I can't see why it should though, surely the oversupply of midfield talent will mean they're always looking for somewhere to fit the 2nd and 3rd tier mids.

I think we as fans tend to massively underrate how important winning is to clubs. Clearly there were issues last year but Polec has been a very good winger, despite his flaws, for half a decade prior to last year, is only 29 in a club pretty lacking in senior bodies and is by an absolute mile the best winger on their list to the point that they don't really even have another genuine winger on the list. Also worth noting that those outside guys with elite kicking do tend to last a bit longer than most positions.

They were a much more competitive side than their record last year as well. They had a pretty awful first 10 rounds but from that point forward they were mostly very competitive and I expect they are trying to win quite a lot more games this year.

It's also worth noting that all of Polec's best seasons have been either contract years or "**** you" seasons, seems to be a textbook example of needing extra motivation. He's playing for his career and in a big time prove he still has it position.

He's not without his flaws or risks as a pick, while winning is valuable, guys like him make perfect scapegoats when things don't go well also, it's always easy to find a few contests that he ran away from instead of towards for that film review session and if a kid does start to demand that position then they probably get priority but the positive is none of their kids really suit the role outside maybe Powell and even he's been much better as a genuine mid.

Will be good to see when he faces opposition teams though if he can back up two dominant intra-club hitouts. The Kangas have no wingers except him so toweling up the 3rd best option they've got doesn't mean much.

 

[McLovin]

The thing I find awkward with Polec is that if he / his management didn't go chasing the contract $$$ ...

- Then he could very well have still been playing his role at PTA ... got no sympathy for the situation he is in ...

How do you think Lions supporters feel?

I think we as fans tend to massively underrate how important winning is to clubs. Clearly there were issues last year but Polec has been a very good winger, despite his flaws, for half a decade prior to last year, is only 29 in a club pretty lacking in senior bodies and is by an absolute mile the best winger on their list to the point that they don't really even have another genuine winger on the list. Also worth noting that those outside guys with elite kicking do tend to last a bit longer than most positions.

They were a much more competitive side than their record last year as well. They had a pretty awful first 10 rounds but from that point forward they were mostly very competitive and I expect they are trying to win quite a lot more games this year.

It's also worth noting that all of Polec's best seasons have been either contract years or "**** you" seasons, seems to be a textbook example of needing extra motivation. He's playing for his career and in a big time prove he still has it position.

He's not without his flaws or risks as a pick, while winning is valuable, guys like him make perfect scapegoats when things don't go well also, it's always easy to find a few contests that he ran away from instead of towards for that film review session and if a kid does start to demand that position then they probably get priority but the positive is none of their kids really suit the role outside maybe Powell and even he's been much better as a genuine mid.

Will be good to see when he faces opposition teams though if he can back up two dominant intra-club hitouts. The Kangas have no wingers except him so toweling up the 3rd best option they've got doesn't mean much.

The main problem for Polec is that two different coaches at North have put him on the scrapheap and I assume he's only still there because they couldn't offload him. Even if he does start in the 22 Polec's defensive running will always be under the spotlight.

I'm also not sure if Polec's experience counts for much given where North are at. Even without Cunnington it's still a strange list for a rebuilding side, I see lots of players there who won't be a part of the club's future if they don't have a sudden rebound.

 

[BarginHunter]

Not sure where to post this question, so ill do it here

If theres a player with huge ownership Macrae for example, and someone picked a (pod)player with low ownership like Miller, but both predicted to have similar scoring
Would that be advantageous or disadvantageous?

I know pods can be useful, but i cant work out if both players end up working, is there any point in doing it?

Or just say macare scores 130 and miller scores 129 then thats almost half the competition scoring 1 point higher than you?

Someone please correct me if im wrong. I may have just puzzled myself thats all?

 

[wogitalia]

Not sure where to post this question, so ill do it here

If theres a player with huge ownership Macrae for example, and someone picked a (pod)player with low ownership like Miller, but both predicted to have similar scoring
Would that be advantageous or disadvantageous?

I know pods can be useful, but i cant work out if both players end up working, is there any point in doing it?

Or just say macare scores 130 and miller scores 129 then thats almost half the competition scoring 1 point higher than you?

Someone please correct me if im wrong. I may have just puzzled myself thats all?

There are several situations where the POD works...

1. Captaincy - If the POD has better captaincy value and keeps producing big captain scores, they can average similar but the POD be better from that. Macrae is kind of the perfect VC this year though so good luck finding the POD (Bont really the only one) against him on this factor.

2. Mainstream pick gets injured - Again this is the only way the averages can align and your POD wins, many will probably close your POD in the event of this by targeting them with the trade.

3. Mainstream pick starts really poorly - If Macrae averages 100 for the first 5 weeks and then gets it back to the 130 then he becomes very cheap and you can close the POD at a significant discount while people can't bridge to your POD. Macrae vs Steele last year is a perfect example of this dynamic in play with Macrae only falling 30k while Steele was almost 100k cheaper and at the perfect time.

4. POD outscores mainstream - Obvious here but this is really the best outcome.

The caveat here is that all of these can go the other way and the damage that happens in the event of that is generally going to be more significant than the gains in reverse. Especially the injury one where you are a trade down on the whole pack.

Realistically though, a POD works if the POD works as a stand alone pick, the likelihood is that all picks are a POD to someone else and really by the end of the season when you're at the pointy end it's likely there are only a handful of genuine PODs in any team because a significant portion of in season trades are "forced" moves. When Steele is 560k in round 10 or 575k coming off a 154 in round 11, everyone gets him. In a weird fashion the best POD is the one that doesn't force people into them but also works if the POD is what you genuinely want.

 

[Juzzo]

Not sure where to post this question, so ill do it here

If theres a player with huge ownership Macrae for example, and someone picked a (pod)player with low ownership like Miller, but both predicted to have similar scoring
Would that be advantageous or disadvantageous?

I know pods can be useful, but i cant work out if both players end up working, is there any point in doing it?

Or just say macare scores 130 and miller scores 129 then thats almost half the competition scoring 1 point higher than you?

Someone please correct me if im wrong. I may have just puzzled myself thats all?

I'm trying to squeeze Macrae, Steele, Miller and Neale in my team. Is difficult and probably compromises other lines.

 

[Ratzondix]

How do you think Lions supporters feel?

The main problem for Polec is that two different coaches at North have put him on the scrapheap and I assume he's only still there because they couldn't offload him. Even if he does start in the 22 Polec's defensive running will always be under the spotlight.

I'm also not sure if Polec's experience counts for much given where North are at. Even without Cunnington it's still a strange list for a rebuilding side, I see lots of players there who won't be a part of the club's future if they don't have a sudden rebound.

Norths building some good youth, I don’t think their list is that bad. Certainly got some talent in the midfield now. They need those old heads around to keep them in line, show them how to train and pass on game knowledge. Also hardened bodies around to stop them getting mauled like Gold Coast were in their early years. North should have a pretty competitive side in 2-3 years providing they keep the young guys around and draft/trade well, maybe add a decent FA or 2 along the way.

 

[BarginHunter]

I'm trying to squeeze Macrae, Steele, Miller and Neale in my team. Is difficult and probably compromises other lines.

Have the exact same problem

 

[BarginHunter]

There are several situations where the POD works...

1. Captaincy - If the POD has better captaincy value and keeps producing big captain scores, they can average similar but the POD be better from that. Macrae is kind of the perfect VC this year though so good luck finding the POD (Bont really the only one) against him on this factor.

2. Mainstream pick gets injured - Again this is the only way the averages can align and your POD wins, many will probably close your POD in the event of this by targeting them with the trade.

3. Mainstream pick starts really poorly - If Macrae averages 100 for the first 5 weeks and then gets it back to the 130 then he becomes very cheap and you can close the POD at a significant discount while people can't bridge to your POD. Macrae vs Steele last year is a perfect example of this dynamic in play with Macrae only falling 30k while Steele was almost 100k cheaper and at the perfect time.

4. POD outscores mainstream - Obvious here but this is really the best outcome.

The caveat here is that all of these can go the other way and the damage that happens in the event of that is generally going to be more significant than the gains in reverse. Especially the injury one where you are a trade down on the whole pack.

Realistically though, a POD works if the POD works as a stand alone pick, the likelihood is that all picks are a POD to someone else and really by the end of the season when you're at the pointy end it's likely there are only a handful of genuine PODs in any team because a significant portion of in season trades are "forced" moves. When Steele is 560k in round 10 or 575k coming off a 154 in round 11, everyone gets him. In a weird fashion the best POD is the one that doesn't force people into them but also works if the POD is what you genuinely want.

Thank you for clearing that up👍

 

[Leroy]

I'm trying to squeeze Macrae, Steele, Miller and Neale in my team. Is difficult and probably compromises other lines.

I can't do it into a team I really like.
Steele, Miller, Neale and a 'cheaper' super-premo mid like Walsh /Mitchell/Petracca is about the best that looks realistic, without assuming a bunch of $102k guys play that probably won't.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495643834373783552

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Damion23/status/1495643834373783552

 

[Juzzo]

I can't do it into a team I really like.
Steele, Miller, Neale and a 'cheaper' super-premo mid like Walsh /Mitchell/Petracca is about the best that looks realistic, without assuming a bunch of $102k guys play that probably won't.

Yes, you are probably correct. 2 DEF rooks on field and can do it, but looking unlikely.

 

[wogitalia]

I'm trying to squeeze Macrae, Steele, Miller and Neale in my team. Is difficult and probably compromises other lines.

I kind of want Neale's role to be so horrible I can justify not taking him just because I really want all of Macrae, Steele, Oliver, Miller, Mitchell and Petracca also, it's funny how much the rookies really do dictate everything that my desired team would have basically been as many of those and Neale as I could fit and now it's looking a lot like I will get to pick maybe 3 of them total and instead have to take a bunch of backs I don't want to

 

[Connoisseur]

Huge ramifications for Supercoach starting sides if the strike eventuates.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495579127965155328

 

[Tails]

Huge ramifications for Supercoach starting sides if the strike eventuates.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495579127965155328

I prefer KFC burgers ... lol ...

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Huge ramifications for Supercoach starting sides if the strike eventuates.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495579127965155328

Think we will be fine. We are protected and have insurance - we have KFC! However, due to the shortages form Ingham chicken, only frozen nuggets are available.

 

[freowho]

Huge ramifications for Supercoach starting sides if the strike eventuates.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495579127965155328

Just as well David Mundy became KFC!

 

[dlanod]

Huge ramifications for Supercoach starting sides if the strike eventuates.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495579127965155328

I didn't realise how big Red Rooster was down there that people are going to burn down the MCG over it. It always seemed the semi-bogan fourth or fifth stringer of fast food chicken stores.

 

[McLovin]

Norths building some good youth, I don’t think their list is that bad. Certainly got some talent in the midfield now. They need those old heads around to keep them in line, show them how to train and pass on game knowledge. Also hardened bodies around to stop them getting mauled like Gold Coast were in their early years. North should have a pretty competitive side in 2-3 years providing they keep the young guys around and draft/trade well, maybe add a decent FA or 2 along the way.

They've certainly got a ton of 23 and under midfield talent combined with even more senior depth in the same area. It strikes me as very unbalanced the way they've continued to load up there while neglecting other positions at the top end of the draft. After years of topping up North have too many experienced players for a bottom side if anything.

 

[wogitalia]

They've certainly got a ton of 23 and under midfield talent combined with even more senior depth in the same area. It strikes me as very unbalanced the way they've continued to load up there while neglecting other positions at the top end of the draft. After years of topping up North have too many experienced players for a bottom side if anything.

Definitely seem to be going down the Sydney/Melbourne/Geelong/WB/Richmond/Hawthorn path of not really bothering to develop the KP players, build an absurd midfield that will flood them with supply (or protect the defenders) and then get them via FA/Trading.

McKay and Larkey both look solid enough for them but I reckon in a couple of years that midfield is going to look really nice if I'm a FA KPF looking to get paid and kick a bag!

Think it's a smart approach to be honest, the success rate on elite midfield draft picks seems to be a heck of a lot higher than the KPF ones.

Looking at the top 10 KP goal kickers you've got Hawkins(41st, admittedly F/S), McKay (10th, 5th KP drafted), Buddy (FA/Trade), Riewoldt (13th, 8th KP pick), Walker (75th), Bruce (FA/Trade), Dixon (FA/Trade), King (6th, 3rd KP), Naughton (9th, 1st KP) and Daniher (FA/Trade). Naughton the only one who was the first KP taken in his draft even adding in the FA guys so it's a cluster****, with Naughton not even drafted as a forward just to make it even better

 

[freowho]

I normally have trouble finding 30 players I like and and end up with someone I'm not happy with (Tom Phillips) but I genuinely have over 40 at the moment that all look like good picks. Even the mid pricers and expensive rookies, who would normally be last minute saviours any other year, look like decent picks.
I'm finding the DPP changes adding to the frustration because I can see discounted mids who will end up on another line but there is no way I can justify using a mid spot to start them so will have to pay full price during the year instead.