Thanks guys, I agree 3 rookie defence line is a risk, but ultimately I think with the majority of our quality rookies being D/M, it doesn't matter as much whether I have them in defence or in the midfield. Tnso maintain this 3 rookie defence structure, I'll just move all the D/Ms to defence. The forward line obviously is a different topic.
Regarding Macrae, for all players I categorise them into 5 tiers (Tier 5 = Prioritised locks regardless of structure, Tier 4 = Round 1 candidates assuming structure/bye rounds are not too negative, Tier 3 = Neutral selections with limited to no upside, only picked due to other factors (DPP, captaincy, rucks).
For me, Macrae sits firmly in Tier 3 right now. While he appeals as a captaincy option which makes him eligible for selection, I have ultimately chosen Steele to fulfil that role with his incredible early draw, with Neale/Grundy/Gawn/Petracca to support.
There are a couple of minor reasons which actually makes Macrae sit towards the bottom of Tier 3:
- He is priced to his historical peak (128.6) - Full-time inside midfield role across the 22 rounds with CBAs maxed out in a grand final year. Never been tagged, never had to play a lesser role, never got injured (he is durable, but it's not like he has played all games every year - 2016, 2018). Yes it's possible this perfect scoring environment is replicated in 2022, but IMO the best case scenario is that Macrae breaks even from last year.
- Midfield trend - The starting trio of Bont, Macrae, Libba (with Dunkley and Treloar as support) was highly effective in the earlier half of 2021, but this combination definitely started to fall apart later on. We saw them getting comprehensively beaten by Essendon (who had one of the weakest and thinnest midfields in the comp last year) and against other bottom 8 teams Bulldogs' midfield also struggled to convert their dominance. Bevo acknowledges this, and in the grand final where stakes were the greatest, he moved Macrae out of the primary midfield set up in favour of Treloar, leaving Macrae with only 56% CBA compared to the earlier 75 - 85%. Bevo knows something needs to change with their midfield, which is why we are seeing Bont play more forward, Dunkley/Treloar play more midfield in the preseason. Look it's possible that Macrae once again gets the lion share of the midfield minutes but anything could happen, even if it's just trialling/resting Macrae on wing/half forward at certain parts of the season, and even a 5-10% decrease in CBA will hurt Macrae's scoring significantly
To be continued - going to brunch and getting some coffee to wake up
