Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
View: https://twitter.com/fantasyfreako/status/1498108678322659328?s=21
@Shannon ‘s signature is looking the goods
@Shannon ‘s signature is looking the goods
It really depends on what you project for the forward group.
I personally think F6 line will be in the 100+ range this year, there are a half dozen young guys all with positive fantasy moves and a few proven 100+ senior guys in the current group and when you add a couple of DPP changes I think you will see 6+ guys in that range. Jackson at 72 probably needs to get within ~6-8 of that before the lost points will start to eat the value pick.
So if you see F6 at 100, I'd say you're looking at around 93 for Jackson and you'd be able to hold him for the season. Move that up or down with your projection line. If he plays 22, given this forward group's collective durability, that would also go a long way.
It is worth noting however that the makeup of the premium group above the F6 can be very important, if F6 s 100 but F1-5 are all 110 for example, then you can only afford to really have one guy using up your F6 spot and basically need the other 5, this is an extreme and unlikely example, but it scales back with 1,2 or 3 guys in that range still.
There is also a final bit of value with a DPP R where they can gain on their effective average if they help you avoid donuts that other's can't. So say everyone has Gawn and he misses a week, you have Jackson to cover and get whatever rookie forward score you have, while others are forced to either trade or cop a donut, you can realistically include that rookie score in Jackson's total. Obviously it's not ideal as not everyone is likely to have the missing ruck, but it's still an effective gain.
That said, I don't really like Jackson to score 95+ as I don't see a huge role change for him or that much natural development, in fact there's a case that the more ruck time he gets the more time he'll be rucking against the opposition #1 where he is generally the inferior ruckman instead of getting to feast on 2nd rucks where he's generally the superior ruckman. Terrific talent but feels a year or two early to me.
I personally think F6 line will be in the 100+ range this year, there are a half dozen young guys all with positive fantasy moves and a few proven 100+ senior guys in the current group and when you add a couple of DPP changes I think you will see 6+ guys in that range. Jackson at 72 probably needs to get within ~6-8 of that before the lost points will start to eat the value pick.
So if you see F6 at 100, I'd say you're looking at around 93 for Jackson and you'd be able to hold him for the season. Move that up or down with your projection line. If he plays 22, given this forward group's collective durability, that would also go a long way.
It is worth noting however that the makeup of the premium group above the F6 can be very important, if F6 s 100 but F1-5 are all 110 for example, then you can only afford to really have one guy using up your F6 spot and basically need the other 5, this is an extreme and unlikely example, but it scales back with 1,2 or 3 guys in that range still.
There is also a final bit of value with a DPP R where they can gain on their effective average if they help you avoid donuts that other's can't. So say everyone has Gawn and he misses a week, you have Jackson to cover and get whatever rookie forward score you have, while others are forced to either trade or cop a donut, you can realistically include that rookie score in Jackson's total. Obviously it's not ideal as not everyone is likely to have the missing ruck, but it's still an effective gain.
That said, I don't really like Jackson to score 95+ as I don't see a huge role change for him or that much natural development, in fact there's a case that the more ruck time he gets the more time he'll be rucking against the opposition #1 where he is generally the inferior ruckman instead of getting to feast on 2nd rucks where he's generally the superior ruckman. Terrific talent but feels a year or two early to me.
I think GC are actually very consistent in their commitment to playing a limited style that ambushes the odd unprepared side early in the season and then going back to moving the magnets around. GC are always trying to find a role for Weller and Lukosius and help neither by moving them all over the ground. Last preseason it was all about Lukosius playing on the wing, and he did- for a while. New season, new role. Again.
You're right about Weller being more suited to the role than Bowes. The new role still confuses me a little, I thought they'd give more responsibility to Powell who was one of their better players last season. GC can't include all of Weller, Powell, Markov and Swallow off half back plus Lemmens who always finds his way into the side and Budarick who they seem to like as small defenders. None are really tall enough to be used as an undersized 3rd tall like Bowes and a few other were last season, but that might not stop GC from trying it again.
You're right about Weller being more suited to the role than Bowes. The new role still confuses me a little, I thought they'd give more responsibility to Powell who was one of their better players last season. GC can't include all of Weller, Powell, Markov and Swallow off half back plus Lemmens who always finds his way into the side and Budarick who they seem to like as small defenders. None are really tall enough to be used as an undersized 3rd tall like Bowes and a few other were last season, but that might not stop GC from trying it again.
Battle seems like the clear best pick there, if his role is as advertised it's possibly in the 80s. Fisher probably next best but his role is a complete unknown and his durability is a mess. Henry not terrible but also completely unproven scoring and doesn't strike as an accumulator which wingers generally require. I don't see much in the rest, Stengle small forward in a strong forward line group, Vandermeer is like the 3rd small forward and never scored well before with no hope of midfield. Close lined up on a wing but can't see it in the real stuff in a side with Higgins, Duncan, Smith, Tuohy, Selwood and Menegola all needing positions somewhere. Hayes probably a long shot to play more than 5 games.
- Joined
- 3 Jul 2017
- Messages
- 38,958
- Likes
- 126,624
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
