Position 2022: Defender Discussion

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I agree with the first part but not the second part. There will be very few teams that end up with 6/8 of the top defenders so I would say if Hewett can average at least 95 and likely be a top 15 defender then that's a win.
Inevitably you’ll trade in some throughout the season that aren’t in the top range of their line, so wouldn’t starting with someone who you’re not expecting to be in that top range just add to that number?
Every premium I’m starting I’m picking because I think they will be in their lines top range
If you think hewett will be top 8 then by all means pick him, if you don’t think he’ll be in that range then I don’t understand why you’d pick him
 

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Inevitably you’ll trade in some throughout the season that aren’t in the top range of their line, so wouldn’t starting with someone who you’re not expecting to be in that top range just add to that number?
Every premium I’m starting I’m picking because I think they will be in their lines top range
If you think hewett will be top 8 then by all means pick him, if you don’t think he’ll be in that range then I don’t understand why you’d pick him
He might be top 8 and those picking him would be hoping so but what I'm saying is that it's not going to cost you a shot at the 50k if he ends up being top 15.
 
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There are so many moving parts here, you've essentially reached the conclusion that you want and then re-constructed the scenario to support it.

At the end of the day, I would bet good money that if Hewett averages 95 there will be multiple teams inside the top 100 that have him because that would be a good pick providing excellent value. I'd bet the same for Sicily as well and he'd be a worse pick at that outcome.
Lots of thoughts on the merits of picking Hewett based on his price of about 73ppg and his potential to score at 95ppg. I have him in my squad and I would be rapt if he finished up averaging 95 and almost ceretainly he would be a D6 keeper.

My reasoning is that it has been shown that the overall winner averages about 103ppg per player across the season. See my earlier post https://supercoachscores.com/thread...eam-post-157-onwards.4408/page-11#post-818587 which relates to 2021 and a much more comprehensive one by @Wheedus
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2021-expectations-and-needs.4553/#post-694096

It would be fair to say D6 would be one of the weaker scoring positions. If you could cover that off cheaply at 95, without having to trade it’s got to be a BIG win. I then can concentrate on getting 111 from M1 and 103 from everyone else…
 
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100% this and wogitalias's posts above. Its not just the total average thats important - it's the average that on field spot has over the entire year.

Yes - we have extra trades this year. However there is a reason (and its not because the HS wants to make it easier).

Covid will be extremely prevalent this year and cause a lot of forced outages (1 week at best, who knows at worst). Thats why we have these extra trades. It's not to be making the 'perfect team' - I expect we will be struggling most weeks to put 18/22 scoring players on the park. All these extra trades and trade boosts will be used to maximise our playing players - not forming a superteam!
This is also where cheaper players can add to their value throughout the season.

Let's same team A has Hewett, Sicily, Lipinski and Rowell at a total cost of $1,548K.

Team B has Macrae, Lloyd and 2 rookies (@$270K) for the same total cost, in the equivalent positions.

If a team (or multiple teams) are hit by covid outs, then the overall depth of your list becomes more relevant. My understanding is games won't be postponed, so we won't be going to a best 18 scenario. There is always going to be a degree of random luck as to who is missing, but the more often it happens, the more likely you are to need the depth.

Team A is less reliant on rookies to fill in for the missing players. The extra trades are there for this situation, but Team B might be forced to use them more often, thus putting them at a disadvantage.
 
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If I knew Hewett had a pure midfield role I'd pick him. Hard to know at this point.
We don't appear to have a Laird or Mills this year, or a Lloyd or Docherty in their prime, so any combination of 12-15 defenders could do it. Game count and value should be bigger considerations rather than trying to nail the top 6-8.
 
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The first one is the perfect team fallacy, we all do it but if you ever have the perfect team at round 16, congratulations, you've won 50k. No one has ever had the perfect team, they will be leaking points at multiple positions to someone else who has a different structure and that goes for everyone be they first or 50000th in rank. You need to stop thinking in terms of perfect and start thinking in terms of possible and realistic. If you manage to have D1-6 nailed then I'll be great money you haven't nailed M5-8 or F4-6 instead because you have to make sacrifices somewhere in this game. It's just the way it is. For example last year the winner had Kieren Briggs at D6 in round 23 and Tim Taranto at M8.
There is nothing wrong with striving for a perfect team. Will we actually reach perfection? No. Will we get close? Probably.

It is a good approach to limit the amount of mistakes you make.

Most people are already taking on enough risk with guys like Butters (never averaged 90+), Thomas (never averaged 85+), Sicily (emergence of other defenders at Hawthorn), Whitfield (durability), Heeney (durability, midfield/forward mix unknown), Brayshaw (never averaged 110+) & Rowell (can he be a top mid over an entire season?) for instance.

Why expose yourself to more risk taking on Hewett in addition to 2-4 of those other guys I listed?
 
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Re. Hewett, he is a mid priced risk not worth taking (imo) because the cohort of premiums in defence are fairly safe. Contrast this with the forwardline, where the cohort of premiums have various issues - as such, taking the risk on a midpricer here is not as much of an issue as you’ll take risks with the forwardline premiums anyway.

It’s why trying to pick a $400-450k mid as a breakout candidate is typically unproductive - there’s plenty of safe options available at the top line.

Sicily is slightly different to Hewett as he is a fallen premium who has previously hit a satisfactory season. People are banking on Hewett to score at 95+, and are paying a high price to take the punt.
 
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If I knew Hewett had a pure midfield role I'd pick him. Hard to know at this point.
We don't appear to have a Laird or Mills this year, or a Lloyd or Docherty in their prime, so any combination of 12-15 defenders could do it. Game count and value should be bigger considerations rather than trying to nail the top 6-8.
Which is interesting in itself with most having both Siciky and Whtifield.
 
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I agree with the first part but not the second part. There will be very few teams that end up with 6/8 of the top defenders so I would say if Hewett can average at least 95 and likely be a top 15 defender then that's a win.
That's Harris Andrews/Chris Mayne territory from last season, would you want that type taking up a spot in your backline for the season?
 

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That's Harris Andrews/Chris Mayne territory from last season, would you want that type taking up a spot in your backline for the season?
Two fairly unattractive names from a fantasy perspective you've chosen there.

Also in that range were Dale and Salem. Daniel and Whitfield averaged even less. Ridley and Short averaged slightly more.

As I said, those picking Hewett shouldn't be picking him wanting a 95 average as the ceiling but rather the floor. Wouldn't be a disaster if he does average 95 though imo.
 
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Two fairly unattractive names from a fantasy perspective you've chosen there.

Also in that range were Dale and Salem. Daniel and Whitfield averaged even less. Ridley and Short averaged slightly more.

As I said, those picking Hewett shouldn't be picking him wanting a 95 average as the ceiling but rather the floor. Wouldn't be a disaster if he does average 95 though imo.
I agree that if people see Hewett has having a floor of 95 they should be picking him, but raises some eyebrows when a 26yo is assigned a floor 7points above his best ever season, and 22 above his previous.
 
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I agree that if people see Hewett has having a floor of 95 they should be picking him, but raises some eyebrows when a 26yo is assigned a floor 7points above his best ever season, and 22 above his previous.
Exactly the point I emphasized many times.

The entire basis of selection appears to be completely reliant on a 26 year beating his best ever season in 7 years, in a role with only a marginal improvement.
 
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I agree that if people see Hewett has having a floor of 95 they should be picking him, but raises some eyebrows when a 26yo is assigned a floor 7points above his best ever season, and 22 above his previous.
That’s fair.

My counter to that though, has he been a regular part of the main midfield rotations during any of those previous seasons as it looks as though he will be at Carlton?

It’s the role change which has me interested and his role and performance in the first practice match has done nothing to waver my interest.
 
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I agree that if people see Hewett has having a floor of 95 they should be picking him, but raises some eyebrows when a 26yo is assigned a floor 7points above his best ever season, and 22 above his previous.
Expected average and Floor are two very different things.

I don't know anyone that could reasonably expect 95 as a Floor for Hewett, but a predicted average of 95 is not totally unreasonable. For what it's worth, I think there's a pretty compelling case for him to have a career best year at a new club, playing a new scoring-friendly role.
 
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That’s fair.

My counter to that though, has he been a regular part of the main midfield rotations during any of those previous seasons as it looks as though he will be at Carlton?

It’s the role change which has me interested and his role and performance in the first practice match has done nothing to waver my interest.
Expected average and Floor are two very different things.

I don't know anyone that could reasonably expect 95 as a Floor for Hewett, but a predicted average of 95 is not totally unreasonable. For what it's worth, I think there's a pretty compelling case for him to have a career best year at a new club, playing a new scoring-friendly role.
Yes, it was only the use of 'floor' my eyebrows were responding to.

I feel a bit conflicted because I like this kind of pick and think as a general rule most coaches overstate the risk of them going bad. If it doesn't work, you're down a sideways trade, but it's not the end of the world.

But even though I can see the appeal of the Hewett, I think he compares unfavourably to most of the other popular midpricer/breakout picks (though admittedly not on the defensive line). Mostly because I can't realistically see him smashing it and making non-owners weep, which is the kind of upside dreaming I like for the price.
 
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