Position 2022: Midfield Discussion

[N29]

I think what NT Thunder was implying was that Cripps going at 80% DE and kicking 4 goals are both outliers. Potential red flags needing consideration of being left out when assessing his pre season.

Which I do agree with in some degree. It's easy to get sucked into the score but can the result be reproduced consistently across a whole season under regular conditions without those outliers.

Some of his previous seasons would suggest it can, but you are still taking a leap of faith here considering he has produced at a poor level for over two years. Injuries or not.

He also carried the team on his back through those seasons. Has more help in the midfield now. Theres certainly enough of the pie for a few midfielders to eat at every club but when Walsh is available are we convinced Cripps doesn't spend considerable time forward? Walsh, Cerra and Hewett could certainly hold their own at a CBA.


There's a heap of question marks still for mine and whilst I am intrigued by the value in his price I still have concerns over his scoring ability on top of his durability. The way its going though he's going to be in 35-40% of teams so its probably a train I'd rather be on than not.

 

[Rumbler]

For those of us who've selected Berry...are we meant to be worried he'll get permanently moved to the forward line when Zorko comes back into the lineup? Anyone else having second thoughts? lol

 

[Shannon]

I think what NT Thunder was implying was that Cripps going at 80% DE and kicking 4 goals are both outliers. Potential red flags needing consideration of being left out when assessing his pre season.

Which I do agree with in some degree. It's easy to get sucked into the score but can the result be reproduced consistently across a whole season under regular conditions without those outliers.

Some of his previous seasons would suggest it can, but you are still taking a leap of faith here considering he has produced at a poor level for over two years. Injuries or not.

He also carried the team on his back through those seasons. Has more help in the midfield now. Theres certainly enough of the pie for a few midfielders to eat at every club but when Walsh is available are we convinced Cripps doesn't spend considerable time forward? Walsh, Cerra and Hewett could certainly hold their own at a CBA.


There's a heap of question marks still for mine and whilst I am intrigued by the value in his price I still have concerns over his scoring ability on top of his durability. The way its going though he's going to be in 35-40% of teams so its probably a train I'd rather be on than not.

Just came across this article on Cripps / how the additions of Hewett & Cerra help him :-

Matthew Lloyd is bullish about where Carlton captain Patrick Cripps sits ahead of the new season, saying the likes of Matthew Kennedy and new recruit Adam Cerra will release some of the pressure that’s recently been placed on him.

Cripps has failed deliver on his lofty expectations in recent years, working through several injury and form issues while the Blues struggled on the field more broadly in 2021.

But after strong pre-season form and a seemingly refreshed club under new coach Michael Voss, hopes are high that the gun on-baller will return to his best this year.

Lloyd said Cerra’s arrival will be good for Cripps and should alleviate some of the pressure on the Blues skipper.

“I’ll never forget three or four years ago I was calling a game where Cripps dominated against Brisbane and you walked away thinking whether he was the best player in the game,” he said on Sportsday.

“He’s tried putting on weight to get bigger and strong and then tried to lose weight to become quicker… he was trying to be too much and I think Adam Cerra coming in is good for him.

“Can Matthew Kennedy be a consistent ally to him until Sam Walsh comes back? It was great to see (Cripps’) explosiveness back and the pressure was much better.”

Tim Watson agreed with Lloyd’s assessment of Carlton’s, saying they would be “hard to stop” if their ruck stocks gave them first use out of a stoppage more often than now.

“It was glaringly obvious (during pre-season) that their big-bodied midfielders are powerful,” he said on SEN Breakfast.

“You have (George) Hewett who is a very good player, (Patrick) Cripps looks back to his best and Kennedy was really good and looks like a confident midfielder…then you add (Adam) Cerra in there.

“If you add a ruckman that gives them half a chance to give them first access to the ball, they’ll be hard to stop around the clearances.”

 

[wogitalia]

I think what NT Thunder was implying was that Cripps going at 80% DE and kicking 4 goals are both outliers. Potential red flags needing consideration of being left out when assessing his pre season.

Which I do agree with in some degree. It's easy to get sucked into the score but can the result be reproduced consistently across a whole season under regular conditions without those outliers.

Some of his previous seasons would suggest it can, but you are still taking a leap of faith here considering he has produced at a poor level for over two years. Injuries or not.

He also carried the team on his back through those seasons. Has more help in the midfield now. Theres certainly enough of the pie for a few midfielders to eat at every club but when Walsh is available are we convinced Cripps doesn't spend considerable time forward? Walsh, Cerra and Hewett could certainly hold their own at a CBA.


There's a heap of question marks still for mine and whilst I am intrigued by the value in his price I still have concerns over his scoring ability on top of his durability. The way its going though he's going to be in 35-40% of teams so its probably a train I'd rather be on than not.

You can create outliers out of anything, while the 4 goals is certainly an outlier and the 80% DE is definitely on the high end, the 12CP is very low, the 3 marks is on the low end and the 30 disposals is smack on average. So while I would genuinely agree those two particular stats are unlikely to be regular drivers of his scoring I'd argue that focusing on those being higher while ignoring other stats that are low to average levels of what he's produced when he's been fit is a dangerous game.

Basically he scores in a wide variety of ways, as much as I agree with those being outliers, in the event that he does kick goals and/or dispose at a higher level then that 115 suddenly rises considerably for what he could average. I think it's a glass half full approach to see it that way but it's arguable at the very least. The DE% actually has a strong case with Hewett and Cerra both adding good space running options for him to hit with safer disposals (and Walsh to be fair who he's never played with fit).

I don't disagree at all with the contrarian view, his durability record is wretched, there's no sugar coating it but his preseason at least gives him a chance against that. I do think the only thing that matters is the durability though, if that flag doesn't trigger this year I'd be surprised if he didn't go 110+ and, to be fair, I'd be surprised if that flag doesn't trigger.

Like you, I think ultimately not picking him might have rapidly become the more dangerous option. Worst case he looks terrible by round 3 and you can fix an issue somewhere. Even if he's fit for 8 weeks, he should push towards 100k in cash generation which is far from ideal but also far from terrible.

For those of us who've selected Berry...are we meant to be worried he'll get permanently moved to the forward line when Zorko comes back into the lineup? Anyone else having second thoughts? lol

None at all. He scored 80s playing off HF, he scored 80s and then high 90s playing the wing role I expect he will play. I think there's this perception from outside that he's not a genuinely great player, I honestly had him in my first draft last year, priced at 97 to improve to a 110+ guy because he's that good a player, if anything his return, Bailey's emergence and Clug's development are more likely to end Zorko's midfield role (partly because he's a legitimately elite forward). A fit Berry is in their first 10 players picked, heck hobbling around with a shredded groin, a hamstring hanging on by a thread and wrecked calf they still kept dragging him back because of where he sits in the side.

He might not work out because durability but he's in the 3 easiest lock away picks for this season with Coniglio and Daicos. Barring injury I'd be genuinely surprised if he's not in the 5 best cash generators (at least that can be reasonably picked) or a part of the winning starting side.

 

[N29]

Just came across this article on Cripps / how the additions of Hewett & Cerra help him :-

Matthew Lloyd is bullish about where Carlton captain Patrick Cripps sits ahead of the new season, saying the likes of Matthew Kennedy and new recruit Adam Cerra will release some of the pressure that’s recently been placed on him.

Cripps has failed deliver on his lofty expectations in recent years, working through several injury and form issues while the Blues struggled on the field more broadly in 2021.

But after strong pre-season form and a seemingly refreshed club under new coach Michael Voss, hopes are high that the gun on-baller will return to his best this year.

Lloyd said Cerra’s arrival will be good for Cripps and should alleviate some of the pressure on the Blues skipper.

“I’ll never forget three or four years ago I was calling a game where Cripps dominated against Brisbane and you walked away thinking whether he was the best player in the game,” he said on Sportsday.

“He’s tried putting on weight to get bigger and strong and then tried to lose weight to become quicker… he was trying to be too much and I think Adam Cerra coming in is good for him.

“Can Matthew Kennedy be a consistent ally to him until Sam Walsh comes back? It was great to see (Cripps’) explosiveness back and the pressure was much better.”

Tim Watson agreed with Lloyd’s assessment of Carlton’s, saying they would be “hard to stop” if their ruck stocks gave them first use out of a stoppage more often than now.

“It was glaringly obvious (during pre-season) that their big-bodied midfielders are powerful,” he said on SEN Breakfast.

“You have (George) Hewett who is a very good player, (Patrick) Cripps looks back to his best and Kennedy was really good and looks like a confident midfielder…then you add (Adam) Cerra in there.

“If you add a ruckman that gives them half a chance to give them first access to the ball, they’ll be hard to stop around the clearances.”

I think the point still stands though, if these additions are so good does it mean he spends some time forward? I'm not saying he does but its certainly a possibility. For the first time in a long time they have a midfield rotation that looks acceptable without him.

Pressure being released from his shoulders is a positive for Carlton but is it a positive for his SC scoring?

 

[N29]

You can create outliers out of anything, while the 4 goals is certainly an outlier and the 80% DE is definitely on the high end, the 12CP is very low, the 3 marks is on the low end and the 30 disposals is smack on average. So while I would genuinely agree those two particular stats are unlikely to be regular drivers of his scoring I'd argue that focusing on those being higher while ignoring other stats that are low to average levels of what he's produced when he's been fit is a dangerous.

We will be here all night if we try and decipher "when he's been fit" but 12 CP and 3 marks is bang on his average over the past two years. So in that regard a 17-18 contested possesion game would have been much more re-assuring than 4 goals because we have seen previously he can sustain that across a season.

It's really besides the point arguing the fact as I'll probably start him due to the rookies looking so weak. I don't normally like mid priced options but the hand is almost being forced this year. I also think he's a top 5 player in the league at his best and would love to see him get back to that level. Definitely have concerns though and not convinced he can get back to that level.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I dont think theres really a right or wrong strategy I just prefer to pick seasoned proven premiums over those underpriced value picks, just think you get what you pay for and some people are cheap for a reason regardless of how well they performed in one pre season game, making everything else work around that will be the balancing act with pretty dodgy rookie stocks but I'm prepared to take that risk.

 

[wogitalia]

I think the point still stands though, if these additions are so good does it mean he spends some time forward? I'm not saying he does but its certainly a possibility. For the first time in a long time they have a midfield rotation that looks acceptable without him.

Pressure being released from his shoulders is a positive for Carlton but is it a positive for his SC scoring?

Forward isn't a bad thing if the midfield is still driving it forward and he has chances to score, unless it's a "I'm an idiot coach that thinks he's an elite forward" 80/20 forward time splits like Teague was doing at times.

Ultimately I think a bigger pie is better for the Blues midfield, they were blown off the park in that area last year. Dogs are a good example that a huge pie is possible with a strong and deep midfield, not that they're on that level of course and they're the anomaly for sure, but Cripps is the top dog, Walsh is the other and the rest filter in below that.

Looking at LY...

ADE: 116, 103, 97 and 96
BRI: 118, 110, 100 and 100.
CAR: 117, 86, 84 and 81
ESS: 115, 114, 93 and 87
FRE: 107, 100, 100 and 90
GWS: 107, 97, 97 and 93
GEE: 113, 104, 101 and 99.
GC: 125, 101, 90 and 90
MEL: 124, 111, 87 and 83 (Ruck at 120 though)
PA: 113, 106, 93 and 87
STK: 126, 93, 92 and 90
SYD: 112, 109, 93 and 77 (you can see why Heeney should play mid
WBD: 129, 120, 103 and 103.

Basically if you're in a good side, with a good midfield, the majority have 2 guys go big and 2 guys in the solid 90s, most of those top teams had a 5th guy right about as well. Melbourne actually a weird exception albeit Gawn distorts reality there.

You'll also notice a distinct lack of the bottom sides for the most part here.

Realistically if they're all fit I think Walsh might now be their top dog but that leaves Cripps to get to that 110-115 range still while still leaving room for Cerra, Hewett and Kennedy to get their fill. Walsh may take a while to get back as well, he's never dealt with an injury before after all.

Ultimately, think the points are there if the team can take them as a whole, a big part of the positives for me is that their whole pie should be a lot bigger.

Bust factor is very high, the real part of picking Cripps is having the contingency in place. What do you do if he's a clear bust at r3, what's the plan if he's just mediocre mid 90s? What about 105? I took him last year when he was a much worse proposition but he was out of my side by round 3 for the cost of a trade. It's why getting one or two of this type of pick is manageable but filling your side with them isn't! (He says with a side full of them!)

 

[wogitalia]

I dont think theres really a right or wrong strategy I just prefer to pick seasoned proven premiums over those underpriced value picks, just think you get what you pay for and some people are cheap for a reason regardless of how well they performed in one pre season game, making everything else work around that will be the balancing act with pretty dodgy rookie stocks but I'm prepared to take that risk.

Definitely a rookie driving desperation factor at play. I imagine if I'm not looking at Ward, Stephens and Rachele to fill out a bench that I'm not looking at Cripps, give me 180k there and Cripps is the guy who becomes Oliver or Steele or whoever very quickly

Heck, if a couple of good prospect 120k guys do come along then plans change rapidly

 

[NT.Thunder]

Bust factor is very high, the real part of picking Cripps is having the contingency in place. What do you do if he's a clear bust at r3, what's the plan if he's just mediocre mid 90s? What about 105? I took him last year when he was a much worse proposition but he was out of my side by round 3 for the cost of a trade. It's why getting one or two of this type of pick is manageable but filling your side with them isn't! (He says with a side full of them!)

This is true and something I look at over several players including rookies missed early in the year, the first few weeks are the most important and I've always said that this is a time where trades should be used as corrections to the starting team and Cripps is one. But where I differ is that I'm happyto go in with a plan on how to get soeone in like a Cripps if needed. Sometimes players like Cripps remain in a side pulling a 90-100 average that isn't as bad as some other areas but still bad enough to create a gap between the top coaches without him and those with him and he just lingers the season in your team making you hate him even more next season and questioning why you picked a player on your never to pick again list - again.

I'm not saying I won't go into the season without him, my current team doesn't have him and out of Rowell, Berry and Cripps which I'm not sure I can carry all, he's the one I'm leaning to fading as he does allow me to get to a Steele/Miller with a re-jig.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Definitely a rookie driving desperation factor at play. I imagine if I'm not looking at Ward, Stephens and Rachele to fill out a bench that I'm not looking at Cripps, give me 180k there and Cripps is the guy who becomes Oliver or Steele or whoever very quickly

Heck, if a couple of good prospect 120k guys do come along then plans change rapidly

I personally like batting deep into the benches with those Ward,Stephens,Rachele sort of picks, alot better cover than the bunch of 100-120k guys everyone seems content to be relying on right now and provides flexibility on who you field depending on matchups and overall performance early in the season, may change my mind if theres a couple SSP signings that get named Round 1 and look decent prospects but just dont think any of those are jumping off the page to be best 22 players right now.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

I think the point still stands though, if these additions are so good does it mean he spends some time forward? I'm not saying he does but its certainly a possibility. For the first time in a long time they have a midfield rotation that looks acceptable without him.

Pressure being released from his shoulders is a positive for Carlton but is it a positive for his SC scoring?

The main reasons he spent extra time forward have disappeared. 1) resting more due to lack of ability to run properly, and 2) McKay was carrying the forward line last year without C. Curnow. Even if one of them doesn't play, TDK will slot in as a replacement.

Cripps just gets in the way as a constant tall target. He will spend time forward like all midfielders, but it will be more on his own terms, when the match-up suits.

 

[Shaunpro1]

The main reasons he spent extra time forward have disappeared. 1) resting more due to lack of ability to run properly, and 2) McKay was carrying the forward line last year without C. Curnow. Even if one of them doesn't play, TDK will slot in as a replacement.

Cripps just gets in the way as a constant tall target. He will spend time forward like all midfielders, but it will be more on his own terms, when the match-up suits.

My main concern with Cripps is actually how deep the Carlton midfield bats now, dont think hes got to be Superman with the cape like we saw on the weekend and in those 2018/19 seasons when Walsh,Hewett,Cerra,Kennedy,Fisher can help him, also provides them the flexibility to rest him forward through games to keep his body fresh which I dont particularly think is going to help his scoring output either, Voss is too smart of a coach to grind Cripps into the ground by mid season.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

My main concern with Cripps is actually how deep the Carlton midfield bats now, dont think hes got to be superman with the cape like we saw on the weekend and in those 2018/19 seasons when Walsh,Hewett,Cerra,Kennedy,Fisher can help him, also provides them the flexibility to rest him forward through games to keep his body fresh which I dont particularly think is going to help his scoring output either, Voss is too smart of a coach to grind Cripps into the ground by mid season.

He is still the best extractor though. That's where it all starts and that is his one wood. You don't play him somewhere that takes away his main area of potential dominance, unless it's for a rest.

Those other guys, particularly Hewett and Kennedy, do offer more inside relief/assistance than he has had previously, but Carlton would be hoping they add to Cripps, not take over.

All it should mean is that he doesn't have to stay in the middle when he is buggered and would be less effective.

 

[Montyjnr]

I need to be strong I think and trust my gut on Cripps. I just don’t see how he fits into a top 8 midfielder by years end against Miller, Macrae, Steele, Oliver, Bont, Titch, Neale, Petracca, Brayshaw, Kelly and others who all have more rounded games and most if not all better durability. His last game of what was it, 80% de and 4 goals is going to be more the exception than the norm. I think his first match where he had something like 28 disposals and still didn’t crack the ton will be closer to his normal level.

Maybe I’m just trying to comfort myself but he’s a future headache one way or another and I can live with this one him not being in my initial team

I think what NT Thunder was implying was that Cripps going at 80% DE and kicking 4 goals are both outliers. Potential red flags needing consideration of being left out when assessing his pre season.

Which I do agree with in some degree. It's easy to get sucked into the score but can the result be reproduced consistently across a whole season under regular conditions without those outliers.

Some of his previous seasons would suggest it can, but you are still taking a leap of faith here considering he has produced at a poor level for over two years. Injuries or not.

He also carried the team on his back through those seasons. Has more help in the midfield now. Theres certainly enough of the pie for a few midfielders to eat at every club but when Walsh is available are we convinced Cripps doesn't spend considerable time forward? Walsh, Cerra and Hewett could certainly hold their own at a CBA.


There's a heap of question marks still for mine and whilst I am intrigued by the value in his price I still have concerns over his scoring ability on top of his durability. The way its going though he's going to be in 35-40% of teams so its probably a train I'd rather be on than not.

I agree with you both and that is why Cripps has never made it into my side.

 

[Shannon]

I personally like batting deep into the benches with those Ward,Stephens,Rachele sort of picks, alot better cover than the bunch of 100-120k guys everyone seems content to be relying on right now and provides flexibility on who you field depending on matchups and overall performance early in the season, may change my mind if theres a couple SSP signings that get named Round 1 and look decent prospects but just dont think any of those are jumping off the page to be best 22 players right now.

I am seriously considering going very deep in my midfield as the only cheap mid rookie that looks to have good scoring potential/fast money making potential if he plays round 1 is MacDonald... I never have so much money sitting on the bench but this is an exceptional year with the lack of decent options :-



To fund it, I downgraded Sicily to Hewett which I am ok with/ can justify it with the cash making potential of having the best rookies/cheap options (Berry/Rowell) all loaded in my team.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

I am seriously considering going very deep in my midfield as the only cheap mid rookie that looks to have good scoring potential/fast money making potential if he plays round 1 is MacDonald... I never have so much money sitting on the bench but this is an exceptional year with the lack of decent options :-

View attachment 40519

To fund it, I downgraded Sicily to Hewett which I am ok with/ can justify it with the cash making potential of having the best rookies/cheap options (Berry/Rowell) all loaded in my team.

Only my M1 is different (actually M2 in my case).

The other difference is I have what I thought was a donut at M11 in Ned Long. Now I actually think he might be a chance to play early on. Scored 50-odd in about a half, and that was kicking 0.4. If he had kicked straight there'd be a lot of fuss being made about him.
Edit: It was DT where he scored 48 (so he got the ball, just kicked poorly). Only 24 in SC but to my eye looked ok.

 

[Zagbag]

Cripps and Rowell have really thrown a spanner into my preseason. I was relatively comfortable before, now I’m just a mess.

It’s frustrating, as if anything this feels like a year to go pretty shallow in the Mids, due to the dearth of low priced rookies.

 

[Philzsay]

My Midfield is getting there.... think I can fit them all in.....

 

[The Experiment]

only 546k is the big fella!

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