Strategy 2022: Round 3 Trades

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Below is the team I fielded last week, including Loops. I got what I regard as a sub-par 2335 /(Macrae).
22 03 24 Team.jpg

So to balance my structure and get in Aaron Hall and Heeney I’m contemplating:
1. Gawn > Jackson
2. Worried about Dusty‘s future so D. Martin > Aaron Hall via SDK DPP
3. Should I abandon my Gresham experiment so Gresham > Heeney or give him another week

The team would look like this:

22 03 29 Team.jpg

I would welcome your thoughts and suggestions
 
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I'm all over the shop in terms of trades - think I might even just bring in the cows I missed being Stephens and Rachele and try and ride a few bumps out. I'm still not 100% sold that Gawn is done and dusted this season. The play was to start an English or other but not sure trading him for me anyway is the best way to go. Noting what Bowey did last week against the GCS I'm also thinking about giving Whitfield one more shot - leaves the the team as is which touch wood has strong cash generation sitting in a good spot just outside the Top 2000

1648534886384.png
 
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I would seriously reconsider trading any premiums such as Gawn, Whitfield etc… as the AFL has already told you to be prepared for outs similar to WC last week. Come winter time in Vic, Covid cases will sky rocket and there will be many a changes in our lineups. That’s what your extra trades should be kept for, to have a full team on the park
 
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Is anyone else bypassing Cripps who doesn't have him?
I really don't want to pick him by he's only $454,000 and has these games coming up - Hawthorn, GC , Port, Freo, North and Adelaide .
I’m not taking him…..have Rowell in that role and think Cripps will revert to his norm once both Cerra and Walsh play in the same side…..
we have only seen two games so a small sample size of course….
 
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I would seriously reconsider trading any premiums such as Gawn, Whitfield etc… as the AFL has already told you to be prepared for outs similar to WC last week. Come winter time in Vic, Covid cases will sky rocket and there will be many a changes in our lineups. That’s what your extra trades should be kept for, to have a full team on the park
This is true for the majority of the season, however round 3 I view as a critical round in setting your team up for the future of your season.

It is almost impossible to nail every good rookie/mid pricer/ great value option with your starting team so at round 3 before prices change, I view that as a point in where you look at your overall structure of your team & make the necessary adjustments to put your team in a great position going forward. There were a few 50/50 calls I got wrong (took Gov over Xerri for example) along with my concerns re Gawn with Jackson coming on so rapidly. English looked great in preseason & I was close to starting him, he has continued to impress me in the 2 games so far & the fact he is ruck/fwd enables me to switch him fwd at some point - I think he will average enough to be a fwd line keeper this year.
It is too early too tell who are the must have rucks this year, Grundy is the only one I still have confidence in being one of the top rucks. I want to give myself some time to assess properly in 3/4 weeks (possibly longer :LOL:) who I want alongside Grundy in my rucks.By taking English now at the expense of Gawn, it gives me that opportunity & frees up much cash to further strengthen my team overall.
I will likely sit tight over the next few weeks unless any must have rookie is on the bubble/any long term injuries happen.
 
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Maybe I’m just salty because last year Heeney went out with a girl just before I dated her. In fact that’s definitely it, I’m just bitter. All aboard the Heeney train…
I want to know what Heeney scores when he doesn't kick 3+ goals.
Just been looking into that myself, looking at scores from the end of last season/stats/goals :-

View attachment 41904


SC Scores :-
View attachment 41903

Round 17, just the 1 goal - 95 SC

Round 18, no goals - 86 SC

Round 20, no goals - 98 SC

Round 21, no goals - 67 SC

Round 22, 1 goal - 87 SC

So 1 poor score out of those games when just 1 or no goals.

In his role rotating between midfield & forward, I think we could expect him to realistically kick at least 1 goal a game - he has kicked 156 goals in his 131 game thus far.
Three seasons averaging between 94 and 98 without kicking three goals a game. ;)
So with a 140 & 141 in the book already, does that mean he's averaging 90-93 for the rest of the year? ;)
I've been mulling over this for quite a while and I seem to remember something that #Rowsus highlighted, which basically said be very careful about bringing players that have had a couple of spike scores as they may be the scores that inflate the average over the mean. So whilst he's had an awesome start to the season I can't see him scoring (from now on) at a level that demands him being an F2/3 keeper, of course if he does then I'll have to cough up the extra 100k to get him in. At this early stage in the season I'm looking for cash generators that will give me the options of bringing in the top scoring players, yes they'll cost trades but that's what this game is all about.
 
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This is true for the majority of the season, however round 3 I view as a critical round in setting your team up for the future of your season.

It is almost impossible to nail every good rookie/mid pricer/ great value option with your starting team so at round 3 before prices change, I view that as a point in where you look at your overall structure of your team & make the necessary adjustments to put your team in a great position going forward. There were a few 50/50 calls I got wrong (took Gov over Xerri for example) along with my concerns re Gawn with Jackson coming on so rapidly. English looked great in preseason & I was close to starting him, he has continued to impress me in the 2 games so far & the fact he is ruck/fwd enables me to switch him fwd at some point - I think he will average enough to be a fwd line keeper this year.
It is too early too tell who are the must have rucks this year, Grundy is the only one I still have confidence in being one of the top rucks. I want to give myself some time to assess properly in 3/4 weeks (possibly longer :LOL:) who I want alongside Grundy in my rucks.By taking English now at the expense of Gawn, it gives me that opportunity & frees up much cash to further strengthen my team overall.
I will likely sit tight over the next few weeks unless any must have rookie is on the bubble/any long term injuries happen.
Agree wholeheartedly, using say 5 trades including rnd 3 to me is acceptable if you are setting yourself up for the season, maybe 1-2 more trades up to rnd 6 and then the fun begins.

Looking at my team now, the score and cash projections have me gaining 1000k in rnd 3, some of the score projections are a bit off but it's what I'm aiming for to at least keep up with the pack and with a bit of luck, gain ground.
 
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I've been mulling over this for quite a while and I seem to remember something that #Rowsus highlighted, which basically said be very careful about bringing players that have had a couple of spike scores as they may be the scores that inflate the average over the mean. So whilst he's had an awesome start to the season I can't see him scoring (from now on) at a level that demands him being an F2/3 keeper, of course if he does then I'll have to cough up the extra 100k to get him in. At this early stage in the season I'm looking for cash generators that will give me the options of bringing in the top scoring players, yes they'll cost trades but that's what this game is all about.
His price hasn't moved as a result of those scores so he is still underpriced. During upgrade season we are looking for price drops but we have one now.
 
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Trouble is bringing Heeney in at whatever price now is somewhat irrelevant if he's not a keeper and generating points for your team. Cash generation means nothing with Heeney, it lessens some risk if he starts to bomb it or gets injured but that's a wasted trade. Yes he's underpriced sure if he averages 140 from here still but let's be honest with ourselves

His 2 games of 140 mean nothing to those of us not starting him, it's from next week yr average starts
 
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You make a valid point thank you.

might do
Gawn to Jackson
Whitfield to Short
Owens to Lipinski
 
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His price hasn't moved as a result of those scores so he is still underpriced. During upgrade season we are looking for price drops but we have one now.
I don't see his scoring as sustainable and I'm betting he'll revert back to the mean, he's not going to score 5 goals a game and with a goal or 2 a game he'll drop back to around that 95 average which is not what I want from now on, happy though to pay up if I'm wrong. I'd rather pull in a MP player that will earn more cash and possibly score similarly but that's just the way I'm rolling.
 
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Trouble is bringing Heeney in at whatever price now is somewhat irrelevant if he's not a keeper and generating points for your team. Cash generation means nothing with Heeney, it lessens some risk if he starts to bomb it or gets injured but that's a wasted trade. Yes he's underpriced sure if he averages 140 from here still but let's be honest with ourselves

His 2 games of 140 mean nothing to those of us not starting him, it's from next week yr average starts
Classic case of someone talking themselves into something.

btw Not saying you are wrong but...:p
 
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So with a 140 & 141 in the book already, does that mean he's averaging 90-93 for the rest of the year? ;)
So in 2018 @Rowsus put up a brilliant post called Anatomy of an SC Average. The table below is from that post. It is a post I keep in my SC Bible. He can ave 97 and produce 8 games over 107 (and he has two of them already). He is also going to post 11 games of 97 or under.

1648540662547.png
 
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