Strategy 2022: Round 3 Trades

[THCLT]

Is Cripps such an absolute must have

I too have agonised over this question since lock out last Sunday. I'll share with you (and others) how I was able to jumped this hurdle...

Forget that it's Cripps we're talking about, just pretend that it's Player X.

• Just turned 27
• Playing midfield at a winning club with support and game style to suit
• Has been playing injured for the past 2 seasons
• Was at premium for the 2 years prior to injury and was heading towards SP
• AAMI 157; Rd1 132; Rd2 162
• Would've cost $600K+ to start if wasn't for injury
• Now you could buy for a touch over $450K
• You're not buying hoping for a breakout, you're buying a return to preinjury form at a heavily discount cost

The question you should really be asking is: Does Player X looked to have overcome his injuries from the past 2 years and has he passed the eye test so far...?

Should you just move a fit premium to get him, well that's a much more complicated question and something you need to decide for yourself and your team as coaches will differ in their response to this question.

 

[Johnsy44]

Going all in on a restructure this week

Gawn > Preuss
Ward > Neale
Gov > Xerri

Leaves me with 250k in the bank. Really wanted Caldwell but isn’t possible this week due the the DPP I have available with the players I will trade. Next week will consider Berry to Caldwell. I currently have Dixon as R3 who I can swing with Hayes F7 if need be for cover.

 

[McLovin]

Reading my way slowly through the entire thread, so much good info here loving everyones advice! my trade plans this week hinge around one key question though, and to do it i would be trading fit premiums/slightly restructuring my team, as i dont have Cripps:

Is Cripps such an absolute must have that even if you are trading out fit premiums, who might have had a bad week, that you just do it?

(sorry if this is already asked, not quite through the entire thread yet) He looks fit, he finally has support around him, and everyone else has him so is this one where you just don't over think it and just go with the crowd?

the only 2 rookies i am really missing are Hinge (I'm skeptical his body will hold up) and Xerri, only really Soligo who is my rubbish rookie left. so trade plan is (Marshall or Ridley)/soligo/ Durdin for cripps/Xerri/Hinge or similar. Net gain is only really on the rookie side ie out 1 premium, 1 poor rookie, 1 ok rookie for 1 premium and 2 good rookies. not sure this is worth 3 trades

I'm in the same boat. If I could directly go Ridley to Cripps I'd happily do so, but it's not possible without losing a premium at D4. This has me looking at all sorts of potentially over complicated and unnecessary premium tradeouts.

Your scenario is a bit simpler because all three proposed ins improve your side.

 

[dlanod]

My feet are getting colder and colder on removing Gawn as the weekend draws closer...

Me too. Especially since that cash would've just gone towards Heeney or Green, neither of which I'm 100% sold on continuing to back up their crazy start, nor am I particularly confident in English.

As a result I'm looking at:
- Whitfield > Hewett
- Hough > Xerri

One midpricer grabbed, and one rookie "fix up". I don't have bad feelings about Hough, but he's definitely my worst performanced rookie especially given the uncertainty over that side of the nation.

 

[Chumpion]

Interesting article on Gawn :-

Gawn has made his second-worst start to a season on record after the opening two rounds – averaging 90 points (he averaged 89 way back in 2016). If we take a closer look at the numbers, there has been an obvious decline in almost every category, but the most concerning of all is his ball use. Overall, his disposal efficiency of 50 per cent is currently a career-low and 12 per cent below 2021. If we compare that figure to other ruckmen, it’s clearly the worst and 6 per cent below anyone else.

Gawn’s kicking efficiency has plummeted to 42 per cent, once again a career-low. But looking at disposal and kicking efficiency in isolation may not paint the truest picture. We need to look at how the player is winning the ball and with Gawn, he has won 12 contested possessions per game which is currently a career-high and the most by any ruckman. If you’re winning the ball in tight, then ball use will suffer and that’s exactly the case with Gawn.

His ruck numbers have suffered a similar fate, with both hitout win rate and hitout-to-advantage percentage dropping considerably. In terms of ruck contests attended, there hasn’t been a major change – attending 53 per game this year compared to 55 in 2021.

From a positional point of view, Gawn has spent 30 per cent of game time up forward, which is an increase from 18 per cent in 2021. Adding to that is Luke Jackson getting more ruck time, up to 43 per cent this year from 37 per cent last season.

So basically, Gawn not as effective in the ruck, his ball use isn’t great and he’s spending more time forward. SuperCoaches have a huge decision to make this week.

Good write up! Glad I don't have him as this feels genuinely tough for those facing this decision. Personally I'd back him in, for 2 reasons.

1. Lack of clear candidate to trade in - there are no stand out rucks yet, with issues a plenty across each of the ones scoring well. English looks the safest (maybe) but not sure I'd have the balls to go Max to English (although I did start English so there is that).

2. Early season "pace" of game style - every year it's the same.. high tempo early until the weather changes, injuries/niggles set it, fatigue.. you name it. Things slow down and the best rise.. I can absolutely see him coming good and that could well be kick started by the bombers this week!

Absolutely a gut call though.. good luck to those making the decision!

 

[Socrates2]

I'm staggered how unpopular Jye Caldwell is this week after the Merrett injury.

Only 857 people have traded him in so far - compared to 15,000+ for Bowey, Hewett, Cripps & Heeney.

Why such low interest for a guy that should be a reliable on field scorer and make 150K+?

I think it's partly because of his price and getting the cash.
A swap with Berry is a sideways trade also.
Cripps and Heeney are much preferred though for whatever reason.

 

[Lgndhen23]

team after:
GOV -> XERRI

preuss in is a massive win, can now loop him and hayes

just wanted thoughts on whetehr people think the gov -> xerri is worth it and thoughts on ay other trades that may be neccesary, starting brayshaw and hall has contradicted no heeney and cripps so not too worried there

 

[THCLT]

just wanted thoughts on whetehr people think the gov -> xerri is worth it and thoughts on ay other trades that may be neccesary, starting brayshaw and hall has contradicted no heeney and cripps so not too worried there

You just continue to do you as that's a cracking team and start.
If it ain't broken don't try to 'force' a trade.
Every player has a place and job in your current setup, no need to over think it.
Keep chasing #1 in the HoF...

 

[Darkie]

Interesting article on Gawn :-

Gawn has made his second-worst start to a season on record after the opening two rounds – averaging 90 points (he averaged 89 way back in 2016). If we take a closer look at the numbers, there has been an obvious decline in almost every category, but the most concerning of all is his ball use. Overall, his disposal efficiency of 50 per cent is currently a career-low and 12 per cent below 2021. If we compare that figure to other ruckmen, it’s clearly the worst and 6 per cent below anyone else.

Gawn’s kicking efficiency has plummeted to 42 per cent, once again a career-low. But looking at disposal and kicking efficiency in isolation may not paint the truest picture. We need to look at how the player is winning the ball and with Gawn, he has won 12 contested possessions per game which is currently a career-high and the most by any ruckman. If you’re winning the ball in tight, then ball use will suffer and that’s exactly the case with Gawn.

His ruck numbers have suffered a similar fate, with both hitout win rate and hitout-to-advantage percentage dropping considerably. In terms of ruck contests attended, there hasn’t been a major change – attending 53 per game this year compared to 55 in 2021.

From a positional point of view, Gawn has spent 30 per cent of game time up forward, which is an increase from 18 per cent in 2021. Adding to that is Luke Jackson getting more ruck time, up to 43 per cent this year from 37 per cent last season.

So basically, Gawn not as effective in the ruck, his ball use isn’t great and he’s spending more time forward. SuperCoaches have a huge decision to make this week.

To me this is largely bullish. I’m happy to bet that disposal efficiency is mean reverting, more so than most other metrics.

It seems unlikely that a 30yo super premium has dropped off a cliff in this regard.

 

[bomberboy]

After a fair bit of deliberation I've decided on Gawn to Jackson and Berry to Heeney. I'm able to afford these luxury trades, and I can see Jackson being a forward keeper - if not a ruck keeper.

I think the argument that there are no standout rucks plays in Jackson's favour - English could be affected by Martin coming back, while Jackson's scoring this well with Gawn playing. I also really like Jackson as a player!

Gives me 87k in the bank and the below team:

 

[inwhiterooms]

team after:
GOV -> XERRI

preuss in is a massive win, can now loop him and hayes

just wanted thoughts on whetehr people think the gov -> xerri is worth it and thoughts on ay other trades that may be neccesary, starting brayshaw and hall has contradicted no heeney and cripps so not too worried there
View attachment 41999

Team looks great, I'd def do Gov > Xerri in your shoes.

 

[Wheedus]

Team looks great, I'd def do Gov > Xerri in your shoes.

I second that motion.

 

[Borris]

I too have agonised over this question since lock out last Sunday. I'll share with you (and others) how I was able to jumped this hurdle...

Forget that it's Cripps we're talking about, just pretend that it's Player X.

• Just turned 27
• Playing midfield at a winning club with support and game style to suit
• Has been playing injured for the past 2 seasons
• Was at premium for the 2 years prior to injury and was heading towards SP
• AAMI 157; Rd1 132; Rd2 162
• Would've cost $600K+ to start if wasn't for injury
• Now you could buy for a touch over $450K
• You're not buying hoping for a breakout, you're buying a return to preinjury form at a heavily discount cost

The question you should really be asking is: Does Player X looked to have overcome his injuries from the past 2 years and has he passed the eye test so far...?

Should you just move a fit premium to get him, well that's a much more complicated question and something you need to decide for yourself and your team as coaches will differ in their response to this question.

This was a bloody helpful way to look at the Cripps or not Cripps situation, thanks legend.

Like some others here I am aware that: a) I'm scarred from last year and b) attracted to going against the crowd just coz.

Dusty > Cripps is the obvious choice right in front of me... I'm just so good at coming up with reasons why I should stretch to Brayshaw instead

 

[THCLT]

Like some others here I am aware that: a) I'm scarred from last year and b) attracted to going against the crowd just coz.

If and when he fails, you'll have lots of friends so won't have to feel alone on that boat.

 

[froffershanners]

Do we have any concrete news or any further whispers or any theories as whether or not Whitfield is carrying an injury?

 

[lavenderbandit]

I think you do it.

Two rookie trades are corrections, which I normally allow a few trades at the start of the year for anyway.

Ridley > Cripps I think is absolutely a net gain. More points and avoid a price drop from Ridley. I think you'll see a few def "premiums" traded out this week

I too have agonised over this question since lock out last Sunday. I'll share with you (and others) how I was able to jumped this hurdle...

Forget that it's Cripps we're talking about, just pretend that it's Player X.

• Just turned 27
• Playing midfield at a winning club with support and game style to suit
• Has been playing injured for the past 2 seasons
• Was at premium for the 2 years prior to injury and was heading towards SP
• AAMI 157; Rd1 132; Rd2 162
• Would've cost $600K+ to start if wasn't for injury
• Now you could buy for a touch over $450K
• You're not buying hoping for a breakout, you're buying a return to preinjury form at a heavily discount cost

The question you should really be asking is: Does Player X looked to have overcome his injuries from the past 2 years and has he passed the eye test so far...?

Should you just move a fit premium to get him, well that's a much more complicated question and something you need to decide for yourself and your team as coaches will differ in their response to this question.

I'm in the same boat. If I could directly go Ridley to Cripps I'd happily do so, but it's not possible without losing a premium at D4. This has me looking at all sorts of potentially over complicated and unnecessary premium tradeouts.

Your scenario is a bit simpler because all three proposed ins improve your side.

Awesome responses everyone, thanks! Pulling the trigger, so when Cripps go pear-shaped you can all blame me hahaha

 

[THCLT]

Awesome responses everyone, thanks! Pulling the trigger, so when Cripps go pear-shaped you can all blame me I'll blame all of you...hahaha

I think the part in RED is what you really wanted to post...

 

[lavenderbandit]

I think the part in RED is what you really wanted to post...

What @THCLT really wanted to say

 

[NT.Thunder]

I've got 2 questions for those that can time travel

1. What is Gawns 5 game average from round 3?
2. Doe's Preuss play every game up to the byes?

 

[doc ron]

Do we have any concrete news or any further whispers or any theories as whether or not Whitfield is carrying an injury?

Nothing concrete that I've heard, but to my eye he dosen't look 100%. Definately carrying something, and he is leaving my team this week for Bowey. If if Bowey reverts back to 70 ish type scores I haven't lost much points wise and gained valuable coin to upgrade a poor performing rookie/mid pricer to a premium elsewhere.