I've prepared some driver and teams break evens going into round 4. It's a sprint race round, so make sure you get your trades in by Friday evening next week.
Drivers: Leclerc -62, Albon -6, Perez -5, Ocon 5, Zhou 8, Magnussen 20, Schumacher 22, Stroll 24, Bottas 25, Latifi 25, Norris 43, Tsunoda 52, Gasly 57, Alonso 58, Russell 59, Dan Ric 60, Sainz 80, Max 155, Lewis 202
Teams: Williams 4, Haas 12, Ferrari 17, Alfa 24, Aston 38, Alpine 55, McLaren 74, Alpha 76, Red Bull 98, Mercedes 169
Sainz to Perez looks pretty straightforward?
It is. Keep in mind Sainz scored 80+ in the first two rounds, so don't be surprised if he doesn't lose value over the next two rounds. But Perez is doing a very solid job and a couple of 80's from him over the next two rounds would see his value increase by $3M.
As for Ocon, it's not too late to jump on. He is unlikely to gain $1M of value again as he did last round, but he currently represents a safe pick whilst others are losing value.
What do I do about Max now?
It all comes down to whether you want to make him captain. If yes, hold him or trade him in. If not, trade him out or don't trade him in. He can't really add value for the next two rounds, but if you want double his points, there isn't another way of doing things.
Red Bull are far more likely to make their break even over the next two rounds, and is a way of obtaining half of Max's points, without missing out on price gains for other drivers.
How much is a trade worth for a cheap driver/team?
I've never actually worked that out, but I suspect we will see managers trying to justify the amount in their trades this round. There is a queue of managers looking to trade out Haas. But the options are limited:
1. Trade to Williams. Will only cost $2.1M, but their BE is only 8 less than Haas and almost all of their season points have come from Albon in Melbourne. Is the trade worth it for 8 less BE?
2. Trade to Alfa. This will cost $3.3M, but Alfa's BE is double that of Haas. It doesn't feel like a terrific money making option.
3. Change structure and trade up to a Ferrari/Red Bull. Might work but it's going to cost $20M-$25M.
It's a similar story for Magnussen/Bottas. It's probably easier to justify the trade to Albon due to a negative BE, but it's no guarantee that he scores well and makes you a lot of money.
Trades
Perez looks to be a good mix of points and dollars for the next two rounds. I'm not convinced Magnussen to Albon is a great points trade. I'll likely hold Haas until a better alternative comes along.
Out: Sainz, Magnussen
In: Perez, Albon
Leclerc (C), Perez, Ocon, Albon
Ferrari, Ferrari, Red Bull, Haas
Bank $6.2M