Strategy 2022: Round 10 Trades

[stephen]

Who do we think scores more over the next 4 weeks;
DeGoey or Nic Martin?

Leaning towards Martin at the moment. DeGoey role seems to have stalled with 3 really sub par scores. Martin obviously had an off week on the weekend but prior to that, I'm happy to take 80-95 for F6. Just the 70s that De Goey has pumped out hurt consistently.

Essentially one of them gets upgraded to Laird for me this week, the other likely on field as F6 until post the Rnd 12 DPP changes and byes when I target Bont/Smith/return of English.

This is the kind of question I often respond to and then get humiliated with evidence of my wrongness the following week.

BUT even if Martin averaged 10 more you'd be better off with De Goey because of the byes. Plus De Goey has the bigger capacity to hurt you with a spike score after you trade him out. Plus SC history is littered with guys like Martin who start hot in their first year and then tire. IMO the odds of him keeping pace with De Goey from here are pretty low.

If it were my team I would definitely be trading N Martin this week and saving De Goey for a slingshot trade in RD14.

 

[mwross91]

This is the kind of question I often respond to and then get humiliated with evidence of my wrongness the following week.

BUT even if Martin averaged 10 more you'd be better off with De Goey because of the byes. Plus De Goey has the bigger capacity to hurt you with a spike score after you trade him out. Plus SC history is littered with guys like Martin who start hot in their first year and then tire. IMO the odds of him keeping pace with De Goey from here are pretty low.

If it were my team I would definitely be trading N Martin this week and saving De Goey for a slingshot trade in RD14.

Yeh I was kind of leaning towards this theory too but my bigger issue it actually the Round 13 bye. Round 12 I've got plenty of premos so the fact Martin misses that week isn't much of a worry. Neither of them have any overly easy games, and I kind of feel like DG is carrying an injury that they're keeping quiet given his lower than usual CBAs the past 3-4 weeks.

So that swings me back to probably JDG.

 

[Chumpion]

Yeh I was kind of leaning towards this theory too but my bigger issue it actually the Round 13 bye. Round 12 I've got plenty of premos so the fact Martin misses that week isn't much of a worry. Neither of them have any overly easy games, and I kind of feel like DG is carrying an injury that they're keeping quiet given his lower than usual CBAs the past 3-4 weeks.

So that swings me back to probably JDG.

Elliot is due back any week (listed as test on the AFL injury report) and I think that has a big positive impact on De Goey's scoring, to the point I'm actually eying him off as a trade in at such a low price once Elliot is back. So personally I think De Goey is a hold, however Martin has served his purpose admirably and can exit at any moment from now on.

 

[mwross91]

Elliot is due back any week (listed as test on the AFL injury report) and I think that has a big positive impact on De Goey's scoring, to the point I'm actually eying him off as a trade in at such a low price once Elliot is back. So personally I think De Goey is a hold, however Martin has served his purpose admirably and can exit at any moment from now on.

That's a great point actually. Will keep an eye on their team lineup and hopefully Elliot is back

 

[Zimmer]

Steele to deal with.

1.- S. Hayes (BE 10) > Clark
- Steele > Wines
- Daicos > Sicily +19k
(Hayes still has money to make, ideally I'd hold him over Dixon, but Hayes extra cash needed for that combo)

2-Dixon > Clark
- Steele > Trac
- Daicos > Dawson/Sinclair = 47k
(Dixon has maxxed out, so he's the ideal cow to trade, still good premos, more $ left for further upgrades.)

Still working on my situation and trades from now through byes.
With two boosts left it's possible to make 3 trades over each of the next 5 rounds, (not that I necessarily will every Rd.) so the above is part of a work in progress - I'll need to consider overall context of finalised (hopefully) team, after the byes.

@Shaunpro1

Think you're probably right about the extra cash. Other upgrades, and problems to work out.

 

[frosty1]

What do we think of Wines.

Rather than just rage trading I thought I'd try and so some thinking, and short term getting rid of Rachele and Coniglio sets me up a bit better to keep upgrading long term. The problem this would limit me to guys <550k odd

Of those I feel Wines is the most likely to be a top 10 mid from here on in. Last year he was good for the first 10 rounds, then exploded across the second half of the season. He's also had only the one really bad score which seemed health related, so hopefully his floor is pretty high.

 

[freowho]

Season went pear shaped weeks ago so just trying to complete a good team. Probably just Coniglio to Clark. Might as well squeeze the other cows for everything.

 

[froffershanners]

What do we think of Wines.

Rather than just rage trading I thought I'd try and so some thinking, and short term getting rid of Rachele and Coniglio sets me up a bit better to keep upgrading long term. The problem this would limit me to guys <550k odd

Of those I feel Wines is the most likely to be a top 10 mid from here on in. Last year he was good for the first 10 rounds, then exploded across the second half of the season. He's also had only the one really bad score which seemed health related, so hopefully his floor is pretty high.

Don't mind the selection at all. Considered him very closely last week but ended up going with Petracca due to better bye.

Averaged 104.5 pre bye last year and then went 120.5 post bye.

Currently going at 111 without the injury affected game so argument could be made he is better placed.

At $540k with a low BE hard to talk you out of it.

 

[Ginty22]

What do we think of Wines.

Rather than just rage trading I thought I'd try and so some thinking, and short term getting rid of Rachele and Coniglio sets me up a bit better to keep upgrading long term. The problem this would limit me to guys <550k odd

Of those I feel Wines is the most likely to be a top 10 mid from here on in. Last year he was good for the first 10 rounds, then exploded across the second half of the season. He's also had only the one really bad score which seemed health related, so hopefully his floor is pretty high.

I’m really liking Wines at his price, similar start to last year overall but ignoring his subbed out game it’s better. Averaged 120odd from this point on last year

 

[Brookesy]

What do we think of Wines.

Rather than just rage trading I thought I'd try and so some thinking, and short term getting rid of Rachele and Coniglio sets me up a bit better to keep upgrading long term. The problem this would limit me to guys <550k odd

Of those I feel Wines is the most likely to be a top 10 mid from here on in. Last year he was good for the first 10 rounds, then exploded across the second half of the season. He's also had only the one really bad score which seemed health related, so hopefully his floor is pretty high.

Don't mind the selection at all. Considered him very closely last week but ended up going with Petracca due to better bye.

Averaged 104.5 pre bye last year and then went 120.5 post bye.

Currently going at 111 without the injury affected game so argument could be made he is better placed.

At $540k with a low BE hard to talk you out of it.

I’m really liking Wines at his price, similar start to last year overall but ignoring his subbed out game it’s better. Averaged 120odd from this point on last year

I'm strongly considering Wines as replacement for Steele. Also considering Walsh too. If I was certain they would score similarly I know the extra $60k saved on Wines would be really useful for my final upgrades. Definitely food for thought....

 

[Blue Bloods]

I'm strongly considering Wines as replacement for Steele. Also considering Walsh too. If I was certain they would score similarly I know the extra $60k saved on Wines would be really useful for my final upgrades. Definitely food for thought....

Noticed Walsh didn’t attend many if any cba on the weekend, can’t find the stats. Looks like he may have been pushed to a more outside game, high half forward with license to roam anywhere.

Still scored well and will score well in most positions but something to be aware of, less cbas normally mean less points.

 

[pizza safety]

Elliot is due back any week (listed as test on the AFL injury report) and I think that has a big positive impact on De Goey's scoring, to the point I'm actually eying him off as a trade in at such a low price once Elliot is back. So personally I think De Goey is a hold, however Martin has served his purpose admirably and can exit at any moment from now on.

De Goey has been playing pure midfield every week except the week he was crook (played the Dusty CBA then forward role), why do you think it helps him, do you mean it will free him up when he’s briefly forward ?

 

[Shaunpro1]

De Goey has been playing pure midfield every week except the week he was crook (played the Dusty CBA then forward role), why do you think it helps him, do you mean it will free him up when he’s briefly forward ?

Elliott back hurts De Goey for mine surprised people see that as a positive, adds another guy into the mid rotation and makes them far more likely to sit JDG forward for periods of games.

 

[Blue Bloods]

I prefer Thompson over Khamis solely because I think as long as he doesn't break down they'll keep playing him, I find it hard to see Khamis lasting much longer than a month personally.

Agree and with some rookies at this stage of the year won’t be traded and just needs to be cover when needed. Can’t trade all the rookie you trade in anymore just not enough trades. Yes a better scoring player is preferred but not always needed, especially if the coin can upgrade in another spot a week or two earlier.

Hopefully Thompson sits at B8 and is never needed, excluding the byes.

 

[Blue Bloods]

On Kemp, does he the skill set to play the Williams role. Thinking is a 70+ role.

RD12 bye is the only concern.

No, Kemp is more a third tall without the intercept marking yet. Can even see him thrown forward as the third tall behind Curnow and Jack when they bring back Young.

 

[Chumpion]

Elliott back hurts De Goey for mine surprised people see that as a positive, adds another guy into the mid rotation and makes them far more likely to sit JDG forward for periods of games.

Averaged 95 in the 3 games they played together while still getting used to the new structures, etc. Personally I think if you can get someone around 400k with a 95-105 range it's not the worst thing - especially as his DPP means he could ultimately function as an M9/F7.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Noticed Walsh didn’t attend many if any cba on the weekend, can’t find the stats. Looks like he may have been pushed to a more outside game, high half forward with license to roam anywhere.

Still scored well and will score well in most positions but something to be aware of, less cbas normally mean less points.

Something worth noting on Walsh, I’ve got a mate who works at Carlton and he said early last week that he’d been told Walsh had pulled up really sore from the weekend before.

 

[Chumpion]

De Goey has been playing pure midfield every week except the week he was crook (played the Dusty CBA then forward role), why do you think it helps him, do you mean it will free him up when he’s briefly forward ?

He strikes me as someone who has struggled a bit this season when playing as a pure mid role.. whether it is fatigue impacting disposal, pace of the game, or other factors.

But one of the biggest drivers I think will be how collingwood can use them to create mismatches. Rather than going forward and getting taken by a defender (and vice versa), they can rotate in transition and suddenly De Goey has pushed forward vs a midfielder, or is pushing up to stoppages with a defender in toe. It's an element of the 2021 Jake Stringer role, as a pure mid he struggled, as a forward he was useful, but playing that hybrid role took him to a new level.

Looking at scores (albeit a small sample size) De Goey averaged 95 with Elliot in the team but fell off a bit of a cliff without him. People have talked about high clanger games being a factor.. and a strong contributor to that could be fatigue/playing a pure 360 degree role.

Not to say it's for everyone but I just think there was strong signs in those first 3 games and the missing piece since then has been Elliot being injured.

 

[Blue Bloods]

Something worth noting on Walsh, I’ve got a mate who works at Carlton and he said early last week that he’d been told Walsh had pulled up really sore from the weekend before.

Just shows what a champion Walsh is, played his best game and was playing sore.

Was up and down the ground all game, kicking goals then picking up the loose ball as the deepest back

 

[Montyjnr]

Isn't this the thing, we don't know yet. Maybe they're a mid season draftee who slots into half back somewhere, maybe they get a look in when Essendon or similar implements full tank mode.

Who knows. I just know I've been burnt at this stage of the year previously going down to someone who seems like the best of a bad bunch of options, who ends up making nothing much in terms of dollars and disappears.

It's everyone's personal judgement on the risk around these guys. If I was in the market for a def rookie this week I'd be looking at Thompson at 123k and Khamis at 127k, and considering them against Kemp at 156, and probably against Reid at 201 (who has by far the best JS) and trying to work out whether I'm taking a short term cash grab of 50 or 60k, whether I'm hoping for a warm body during the byes, or whether I'm hoping for long term bench coverage.

Everyone's team will have different needs, and everyone will have different appetite for risk.

Good luck with whichever way anyone goes. It will be interesting looking back and understanding what the best move was

Yeah see I think I am more tempted to take options like Khamis & Thompson while they are here, rather than hope for some 60+ averaging half back with good JS to emerge down the track. The sooner I unlock the cash from downgrading Hinge & SDK, the sooner I can finish my defence & bring in English when he returns. I just don't think I gain enough from stalling that upgrade process.

Given I am hoping to finish my defence next week, I only have 2 defender rookie spots available. The tough decision for me is whether I fill those spots with both Khamis & Thompson this week, or only take 1 of Khamis/Thompson and save a spot for Luke Cleary (who looks like he could have the best scoring potential of the 3) next week. It would be a nightmare if I saved a spot for Cleary and he gets dropped though.

Does anyone have an opinion on what I should do here?