Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Bridgebuff]

My question is about structure

Ive gone

(2)2-(1)-5
(4)5-(1)-4
(1)1-(1)-2
(2)4-(1)-3

Based on selections over $450k that i hope to be keepers - midpricers - rookies.

The first bracket indicates out of those keepers the prems over $550k-$700k. The mid bracket indicates underpriced/fallen sc scorers i trust to be above $450k by seasons end.

With all the most expensive rookies coming in mid and a wealth of cheaper defensive options presenting itself do you see this structure working? I realise im missing some rookies in guts but cant bring myself to spend $200k on likes of Tom Dyson as he would need to score 110-120 to match Cunninghams 66 each week

Are you able to plot the average scores the following rookies need to make $200k based on their initial cost

Or using a standard PIT figure for their positions vs their cost how many weeks to reach 200k

Hogan (fwd) 217300 estimated start rd 4, bye rnd 10
Tyson (mid) 216800 bye round 10
KK (def)197300 estimated start rnd 2, bye round 8
McDonald (def) 182300 bye rnd 8
Aish (mid) 187300 bye rnd 10
Michie (mid) 172600 bye round 10
Polec (mid) 172600 bye rnd 9
Rohan (fwd) 176200 bye rnd 10
Sheed (mid) 167300 bye rnd 9
Lennon (fwd) 162300 estimated start rnd 5, bye rnd 8
Laidler (def) 161800 bye rnd 10
Ellis (mid) 159000 bye rnd 9
McDonough (fwd) 155300 bye rnd 8
Dunstan (mid) $132300 bye rnd 10
Cunningham (mid) 123900 bye rnd 10
Langford (def)123900 bye rnd 9
Currie (ruck) 123900 bye rnd 8
Langdon (def) 117300 bye rnd 8
Impey (fwd) 117300 bye rnd 9
JKH (fwd) 117300 bye rnd 10
Georgiou (def) 102400 bye rnd 10

According to my table, using Rowsus' PIT scores (def 60, fwd 65, ruck 70, mid 80), the following are the total improvement that you can expect: Hogan $114k, Tyson $189k, KK $108k, McDonald $123k, Aish $223k, Michie $232k, Polec $232k, Rohan $154k, Sheed $237k, Lennon $167k, Laidler $143k, Ellis $245k, McDonough $174k, Dunstan $271k, Cunningham $280k, Langford $180k, Currie $230k, Langdon $186k, Impey $211k, JKH $211k, Georgiou $200k

So 10 players are set to rise by $200k based on their PIT average.
7 weeks for Dunstan & Cunningham
8 weeks for Ellis
9 weeks for Michie, Polec, Sheed, Currie
10 weeks for Aish
11 weeks for Impey & JKH

So if a player starts later, is dropped or has a bye round, it will take accordingly longer.
Hope that Rowsus can confirm these figures.

I would also add Matt Crouch to the above list. Even so he is only emergency tomorrow, Sanderson loves him and has already indicated plenty of game time. He is set to increase $286 based on his PIT average and will reach that in 6-7 weeks

Addition: I have just gone through the list again, and realised that DPP should probably get given the higher PIT or at least a medium PIT. This would change the ceiling for Langdon ($286k), McDonald ($223k), as well as Taylor ($286) and Honeychurch ($286), who were both not on your list.
Langdon, Honeychurch & Taylor would need 7 weeks to 'mature', McDonald 10 weeks

 

[sangkuriang]

Hi Rowsus,

Trying to separate Petrie and Roughie for F2. Finding it tough going. Cash is not a concern.

Is it plausible that Petrie will outscore him or not? He is ageing but I figure stands to benefit from an improved midfield. Is this justifiable for codswallop?

Cheers mate.

 

[sangkuriang]

*or not for

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

Not sure which two to start out of:

Aish, Michie, X.Ellis, Dunstan and L.McDonald?

Currently have L.McDonald and Dunstan on the pine...

I'm a big believer, that anyone over $125k shouldn't be on your bench early in the season, outside of loopholing opportunities.
You have the right selections, given your list, but I don't like McDonald in a team to sit on the pine. He does look to be potentially the lowest scorer amongst them though.

 

[PowerBrokers]

Hi Rowsus

I have a bit of a structural issue at the moment.

I've decided on giving my R1 to Ryder opposed to McEvoy, as I believe that the Bombers will be hungry for it, Ryder had a GREAT pre-season, he's the sole ruck for some time, he has a history of 100+ scoring, and it frees up around $20k.

My issue is my forward line, and more specifically my F5 & F6.

I have exactly $660k to play with.

Currently I have M Wright (Adelaide), and Missy Higgins (WB) in those spots with $20k left over.
My current rookies are J Kennedy-Harris and a very underwhelming Impey (A tinkering pick at the last moment...tell me about it)

My question is should I put my faith in a premium, eg, Roughhead and have a named Rookie for F6, or should I go with my 2 mid-pricers?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi rowsus

I have two questions.

1. In my defense I have hurn however I am considering bringing in for hurn hibberd or another premium. Do you think it is a wise move given hurn preseason form?

2. Like most coaches Langdon is sitting as an emergency on my bench. I was considering of removing either Langford or McDonald and playing the floating donut. Is it worth chasing the points even though my team is going ok?

Many thanks

1.I wouldn't worry too much about Hurn's preseason form. Having said that, if you can get to a more proven Premium than Hurn, without disrupting other team structures, then yes, do it. Otherwise, trust your research and stick with Hurn.

2.Don't change team structure chasing one score! That's crazy. It may turn out to be as little as 40 points you gain, and the compromised team structure may cost you 10 times that in the coming weeks.

 

[Rowsus]

Just curious, why have you gone away from Goldstein? Team structure or thinking Currie will take some of his hit-outs? Asking as I have Goldstein (and Currie).

Also, is there anywhere I can post to get you or Jay to quickly check my team for holes like you did last week? PM you?

Thanks Rowsus

Currie is part of it, but only a small part.
I just think it might be hard for him, and Minson, to justify their prices this season. I've ended up on Jacob and Sandi. I'm not expecting too much from Jacobs (95 is good enough) or Sandi (play most games to the bye), and I will aim to upgrade to Goldy and ???? during the byes.

You can pm me your team, but I can't promise how quickly I will get to it. I try to avoid "Rate My Team" type questions, though last week was obviously a large exception.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I have a bit of a structural issue at the moment.

I've decided on giving my R1 to Ryder opposed to McEvoy, as I believe that the Bombers will be hungry for it, Ryder had a GREAT pre-season, he's the sole ruck for some time, he has a history of 100+ scoring, and it frees up around $20k.

My issue is my forward line, and more specifically my F5 & F6.

I have exactly $660k to play with.

Currently I have M Wright (Adelaide), and Missy Higgins (WB) in those spots with $20k left over.
My current rookies are J Kennedy-Harris and a very underwhelming Impey (A tinkering pick at the last moment...tell me about it)

My question is should I put my faith in a premium, eg, Roughhead and have a named Rookie for F6, or should I go with my 2 mid-pricers?

Hi PB,
"The Rules" of picking a good SC team say Prem and Rookie over two midpricers, everytime.
"The Rules" have stood the test of time. It is unlikely either Wright or Missy will become Keepers. If you can find a Rookie, go the Prem option.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Trying to separate Petrie and Roughie for F2. Finding it tough going. Cash is not a concern.

Is it plausible that Petrie will outscore him or not? He is ageing but I figure stands to benefit from an improved midfield. Is this justifiable for codswallop?

Cheers mate.

Hi sang,
I'd start with Roughie, and target Petrie after the byes, when North's draw opens up.

 

[jaca]

Do the rules therefore support me going for Martin and McDonald over Suckling and Martin/McDonald?

 

[The Saltshaker]

Hi PB,
"The Rules" of picking a good SC team say Prem and Rookie over two midpricers, everytime.
"The Rules" have stood the test of time. It is unlikely either Wright or Missy will become Keepers. If you can find a Rookie, go the Prem option.

Well this is where im at buddy, doing my head in using this basis what option would be best

A) 2-1-5 changing suckling > mcdonald for 2-0-6 structure keeping georgiou, keeping Cox/Sandi 1-1-2 in rucks

Considering your FTB thread, suckling definitely but has tough draw (gone) vs Cox definely but easy draw (keep)

B) 2-1-5 suckling > birchall and georgiou > mcdonald for 3-0-5 but changing Cox > Hmac/sandi for 0-2-2

Birchall pretty even FTB

 

[Rowsus]

Do the rules therefore support me going for Martin and McDonald over Suckling and Martin/McDonald?

LOL, you'll really have to clarify this for me. Which Martin?
Ok let's assume Brodie Martin.
Unless you think Suckling will score in the high 80's to low 90's, you shouldn't pick him.
Having said that, I am thinking picking a guy that has been around since 2009, and his longest 2 game streaks are 4 and 5 is pretty much against "The Rules", too!

 

[The Saltshaker]

According to my table, using Rowsus' PIT scores (def 60, fwd 65, ruck 70, mid 80), the following are the total improvement that you can expect: Hogan $114k, Tyson $189k, KK $108k, McDonald $123k, Aish $223k, Michie $232k, Polec $232k, Rohan $154k, Sheed $237k, Lennon $167k, Laidler $143k, Ellis $245k, McDonough $174k, Dunstan $271k, Cunningham $280k, Langford $180k, Currie $230k, Langdon $186k, Impey $211k, JKH $211k, Georgiou $200k

So 10 players are set to rise by $200k based on their PIT average.
7 weeks for Dunstan & Cunningham
8 weeks for Ellis
9 weeks for Michie, Polec, Sheed, Currie
10 weeks for Aish
11 weeks for Impey & JKH

So if a player starts later, is dropped or has a bye round, it will take accordingly longer.
Hope that Rowsus can confirm these figures.

I would also add Matt Crouch to the above list. Even so he is only emergency tomorrow, Sanderson loves him and has already indicated plenty of game time. He is set to increase $286 based on his PIT average and will reach that in 6-7 weeks

Thanks heaps so anyone north of Aish ie Tyson still wont be $200k by his bye

Polec Ellis looking good by rnd 9

Crouch not named this week could struggle reaching by rnd 8 so maybe Crouch to Michie as could jeopardise my mid prem byes, or hold see if named next week then use trade if not for rnd 3 best mid?

 

[Rowsus]

Well this is where im at buddy, doing my head in using this basis what option would be best

A) 2-1-5 changing suckling > mcdonald for 2-0-6 structure keeping georgiou, keeping Cox/Sandi 1-1-2 in rucks

Considering your FTB thread, suckling definitely but has tough draw (gone) vs Cox definely but easy draw (keep)

B) 2-1-5 suckling > birchall and georgiou > mcdonald for 3-0-5 but changing Cox > Hmac/sandi for 0-2-2

Birchall pretty even FTB

I haven't checked Bridgebuff's answer yet. I thought I'd handle the quick and simple ones first.

So it looks like this:
Georgiou and Cox ($681.3k) versus Birchall and HMac ($829.5).
Given Birchall is coming off a limited preseason, and HMac is HMac, I prefer Cox, Georgiou and $148.2k.

 

[jaca]

Thanks Rowsus, going to stick with my preseason plan then!

 

[Manikato1]

So 10 players are set to rise by $200k based on their PIT average.
7 weeks for Dunstan & Cunningham
8 weeks for Ellis
9 weeks for Michie, Polec, Sheed, Currie
10 weeks for Aish
11 weeks for Impey & JKH

If you go to page 8 of this thread there is historical data on players hitting 200k and how long it took them

 

[Bridgebuff]

I'm a big believer, that anyone over $125k shouldn't be on your bench early in the season, outside of loopholing opportunities.
You have the right selections, given your list, but I don't like McDonald in a team to sit on the pine. He does look to be potentially the lowest scorer amongst them though.

While I totally agree with your theory of not wasting money on the bench, I have a similar problem. There just don't seem to be enough rookies below $125k out there that are going to get a game.
Currently I have Clurey & Langdon as D7 & 8, Derrickx as R4 and Impey as F8 who are locked because they played in week1.
I had Crouch as my M8, however as he is not playing I am very unsure if there is value in having him there and hoping that he gets lots of game time soon. My theory is that unless I am looking for a donut a rookie has to be in the team and create cash. Otherwise I rather use a trade to bring him in later. What is your opionion on this?
So my other rookies are King as R2 (loophole), Dunstan & Honeychurch (if named) as M9 & M10, and JKH as F8. Should have possibly gone with Cunningham, however he is no longer available for my starting team. Did I miss a cheap starting rookie that is going to play?

 

[Rowsus]

My question is about structure

Ive gone

(2)2-(1)-5
(4)5-(1)-4
(1)1-(1)-2
(2)4-(1)-3

Based on selections over $450k that i hope to be keepers - midpricers - rookies.

The first bracket indicates out of those keepers the prems over $550k-$700k. The mid bracket indicates underpriced/fallen sc scorers i trust to be above $450k by seasons end.

With all the most expensive rookies coming in mid and a wealth of cheaper defensive options presenting itself do you see this structure working? I realise im missing some rookies in guts but cant bring myself to spend $200k on likes of Tom Dyson as he would need to score 110-120 to match Cunninghams 66 each week

Are you able to plot the average scores the following rookies need to make $200k based on their initial cost

Or using a standard PIT figure for their positions vs their cost how many weeks to reach 200k

Hogan (fwd) 217300 estimated start rd 4, bye rnd 10
Tyson (mid) 216800 bye round 10
KK (def)197300 estimated start rnd 2, bye round 8
McDonald (def) 182300 bye rnd 8
Aish (mid) 187300 bye rnd 10
Michie (mid) 172600 bye round 10
Polec (mid) 172600 bye rnd 9
Rohan (fwd) 176200 bye rnd 10
Sheed (mid) 167300 bye rnd 9
Lennon (fwd) 162300 estimated start rnd 5, bye rnd 8
Laidler (def) 161800 bye rnd 10
Ellis (mid) 159000 bye rnd 9
McDonough (fwd) 155300 bye rnd 8
Dunstan (mid) $132300 bye rnd 10
Cunningham (mid) 123900 bye rnd 10
Langford (def)123900 bye rnd 9
Currie (ruck) 123900 bye rnd 8
Langdon (def) 117300 bye rnd 8
Impey (fwd) 117300 bye rnd 9
JKH (fwd) 117300 bye rnd 10
Georgiou (def) 102400 bye rnd 10

Some of them, at a positional PIT average will never reach +$200k from their opening price. Here's how I see them.

Hogan - $217.3k, at 70/game peaks at +$122.9k at 13th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 5th change and +$102.6k.
Tyson - $216.8k, at 80/game peaks at +$171.5k at 13th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$151.8k.
KK - $197.3k, at 65/game peaks at +$118.1k at 13th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 5th change and +$98.8k.
McDonald - $182.3k, at 65/game peaks at +$133.3k at 13th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$118.2k.
Aish - $187.3k, at 80/game peaks at +$200.6k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$176.7k.
Michie - $172.6k, at 80/game peaks at +$215.1k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$189.1k.
Polec - $172.6k, at 80/game peaks at +$215.1k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$189.1k.
Rohan - $176.2k, at 70/game peaks at +$163.3k at 13th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$144.2k.
Sheed - $167.3k, at 80/game peaks at +$220.3k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$193.6k.
Lennon - $162.3k, at 70/game peaks at +$177.0k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$156.0k.
Laidler - $161.8k, at 65/game peaks at +$153.5k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$135.5k.
Ellis - $159.0k, at 80/game peaks at +$228.5k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$209.9k.
McDono - $155.3k, at 70/game peaks at +$184.0k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 6th change and +$161.9k.
Dunstan - $132.3k, at 80/game peaks at +$254.9k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$233.5k.
Cun'ham - $123.9k, at 80/game peaks at +$263.2k at 15th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$241.0k.
Langford - $123.9k, at 65/game peaks at +$190.9k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$175.2k.
Currie - $123.9k, at 75/game peaks at +$239.1k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$219.1k.
Langdon - $117.3k, at 65/game peaks at +$197.4k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$181.1k.
Impey - $117.3k, at 70/game peaks at +$221.5k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$203.0k.
JKH - $117.3k, at 70/game peaks at +$221.5k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$203.0k.
Georgiou - $102.4k, at 65/game peaks at +$212.1k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$194.3k.
Crouch - $117.3k, at 80/game peaks at +$269.7k at 14th price change. Price changes fall below 3% after 7th change and +$246.8k.

Of course, some will average higher than the PIT averages assumed here, and some lower.
They take between 5 and 7 price changes to make between 83% and 92% of what they will peak at, then another 7 or 8 Price changes to wring out that last 8% to 17%.

 

[tracygrims]

According to my table, using Rowsus' PIT scores (def 60, fwd 65, ruck 70, mid 80), the following are the total improvement that you can expect: Hogan $114k, Tyson $189k, KK $108k, McDonald $123k, Aish $223k, Michie $232k, Polec $232k, Rohan $154k, Sheed $237k, Lennon $167k, Laidler $143k, Ellis $245k, McDonough $174k, Dunstan $271k, Cunningham $280k, Langford $180k, Currie $230k, Langdon $186k, Impey $211k, JKH $211k, Georgiou $200k

So 10 players are set to rise by $200k based on their PIT average.
7 weeks for Dunstan & Cunningham
8 weeks for Ellis
9 weeks for Michie, Polec, Sheed, Currie
10 weeks for Aish
11 weeks for Impey & JKH

So if a player starts later, is dropped or has a bye round, it will take accordingly longer.
Hope that Rowsus can confirm these figures.

I would also add Matt Crouch to the above list. Even so he is only emergency tomorrow, Sanderson loves him and has already indicated plenty of game time. He is set to increase $286 based on his PIT average and will reach that in 6-7 weeks

Addition: I have just gone through the list again, and realised that DPP should probably get given the higher PIT or at least a medium PIT. This would change the ceiling for Langdon ($286k), McDonald ($223k), as well as Taylor ($286) and Honeychurch ($286), who were both not on your list.
Langdon, Honeychurch & Taylor would need 7 weeks to 'mature', McDonald 10 weeks

This is interesting information and a great starting point!

 

[tracygrims]

Hopefully this gives a clearer picture of how much money your rookie will make - pick the price, then the average you think and then follow it until you get a price increase you like.
*I have taken into account pricing coefficient reduction over the season, starting at 5400 and reducing by 50 per week from week 3.