Position 2022: Ruck Discussion

[wogitalia]

So you're telling me I should be happy at Darcy and Witts rather than very disappointed

 

[NT.Thunder]

I so want to move Witts to Marshall this week

 

[Professor]

There's talk that if Jackson leaves for Freo, Melbourne will go after Grundy. Would you accept the good old set n forget Gawn n Grundy playing in the same side? Will be an interesting dynamic. Fly telling us he'll be playing Grundy forward will be an interesting test for the future, can Grundy play forward or is he too one dimensional.

 

[NT.Thunder]

There's talk that if Jackson leaves for Freo, Melbourne will go after Grundy. Would you accept the good old set n forget Gawn n Grundy playing in the same side? Will be an interesting dynamic. Fly telling us he'll be playing Grundy forward will be an interesting test for the future, can Grundy play forward or is he too one dimensional.

If he could play forward he wouldn't potentially be leaving Collingwood

 

[randomcliche]

Last year was also though, where this year may be a bit more unique is perhaps how popular they were and how the pricing seemed to almost force our hands a bit towards them meaning we experienced them a lot more.

And I dare say that the trade boosts have fundamentally shifted the entire game in this regard. Having 9 trades available from round 3-5 to correct means you really shouldn't miss too many.

I think it's also a lot easier to pick them than it used to be. 5 years ago it was basically "player moving into the midfield" which was always a complete minefield on incomplete preseason information and load management on stars. I think that one is still the hardest to pick but the move to HBF or the move to ruck are both very easy to pick/see and very lucrative and most teams aren't going to waste minutes in those roles if they're not to play there, ruck synergy is too important to waste on the VFL ruck, the back 6 synergy and kick-in strategy is also too important to waste on someone playing elsewhere. The returning from injury with a history of premium scoring is also very easy to pick, especially if you target "spike scoring" more than average.

Picking the breakout guys is still really hard, especially midfield based, picking a Green over a Caldwell for example is definitely a coin flip (albeit, Caldwell still a very decent cash cow pick), a lot of people picked Butters, albeit his durability is his biggest issue, picking a Sinclair or Houston (as someone who has picked Houston several times) over a May, Heppell or Hind type who regresses is a crapshoot, the breakout backs just seems so random most of the time.

If you apply 3 rules though:

1. Structural position change
2. Premium spike scoring history
3. New club, specific role

I think with the above 3 you'd nail 95% of the past couple of years value picks. It's not foolproof, Whitfield absolutely fits into rule 2 for example but you'd hit far more often than not.

I also don't think there will be as many value plays next year, one of the things that has been more unique the past two years, imo, is the amount of much cheaper value plays. Whitfield priced at 90 odd is 15 points undervalued but also has no scope outside pure premium. Caldwell at 266 is solid enough and makes 150k. Take 5 of Caldwell and have 3 make 125k, 1 push premium levels and 1 bust and you've done brilliantly out of that initial investment. The past two years it's been insane having Brodie, Ziebell, Coniglio, Dale, Gresham, Curnow, Hind, Cumming and a few others put up often genuine premium numbers is over the top but there will always be one or two of them.

I think the rules are good,

So who's the ruck for me out of:

Witts; Gawn; Darcy; R'OB, Goldy... I've got English. Gawn might be a bit pricey, need to do some maths.

Edit: Actually turns out I can afford Gawn and Mills in the next two weeks to finish off my team with 3 trades left over. So I guess I've got a number of variables to consider.

I bought Goldie two weeks ago when Inhad the full selection to choose from (I own Darcy and Blicavs). Prettty comfortable with that decision. Reliable, lone wolf. I’d look at Big O iff Fort is straight back out, but still choose Goldy. Darcy a good choice, but don’t feel that Monster coming yet, think a couple of 120s before that happens.

 

[meataxe]

There's talk that if Jackson leaves for Freo, Melbourne will go after Grundy. Would you accept the good old set n forget Gawn n Grundy playing in the same side? Will be an interesting dynamic. Fly telling us he'll be playing Grundy forward will be an interesting test for the future, can Grundy play forward or is he too one dimensional.

Grundy to Melbourne would be a terrible recruitment. Melbourne’s clear need is a KPF.

 

[WindyHillWizard]

Grundy to Melbourne would be a terrible recruitment. Melbourne’s clear need is a KPF.

Unless they know that Gawn will call time early on his career and become a full-time barista / restauranteer.

 

[Lost In The Sky]

If Jackson goes to Freo... You'd have to think Meek would be heading back to Melbourne as part of the deal.

 

[Grundogging]

There's talk that if Jackson leaves for Freo, Melbourne will go after Grundy. Would you accept the good old set n forget Gawn n Grundy playing in the same side? Will be an interesting dynamic. Fly telling us he'll be playing Grundy forward will be an interesting test for the future, can Grundy play forward or is he too one dimensional.

Jackson going to Freo would be Preuss 2.0 - ie a stupid career move slotting in behind Darcy who is only three years older.

More likely to end up at West Coast if he does move west I reckon and they'll have a top 2 pick to dangle in front of Melbourne's nose as well.

 

[dlanod]

Jackson going to Freo would be Preuss 2.0 - ie a stupid career move slotting in behind Darcy who is only three years older.

Depends if Jackson is happy playing up forward - he's shown a decent amount at Melbourne in that role.

 

[Grundogging]

Depends if Jackson is happy playing up forward - he's shown a decent amount at Melbourne in that role.

Surely he wants to be a dominant #1 ruck in the vein of Gawn rather than a bit part forward ruck like Lobb?

(not necessarily drawing comparisons in terms of ceiling, more in terms of role)

 

[Russty_]

Surely he wants to be a dominant #1 ruck in the vein of Gawn rather than a bit part forward ruck like Lobb?

(not necessarily drawing comparisons in terms of ceiling, more in terms of role)

I would think if a Ruck considers himself a Ruck predominantly then he'd always aspire to be number 1 at his club, whereas a tall forward/ruck who considers himself a forward would only consider himself a part time ruck giving the number one guy a chop out when it's in the forward line.
To me, this is the best formula to have in a team, a clear number one ruck and the tall forward backup chop out reliever, not 2 rucks vying for the mantle of number one in the same side.
That tends to end up in the Saints' situation at the moment, where no one knows who is the number one.

 

[freowho]

I would think if a Ruck considers himself a Ruck predominantly then he'd always aspire to be number 1 at his club, whereas a tall forward/ruck who considers himself a forward would only consider himself a part time ruck giving the number one guy a chop out when it's in the forward line.
To me, this is the best formula to have in a team, a clear number one ruck and the tall forward backup chop out reliever, not 2 rucks vying for the mantle of number one in the same side.
That tends to end up in the Saints' situation at the moment, where no one knows who is the number one.

Forwards and Rucks are the most overpaid in the game so so a smart person would say, "I'm a forward slash ruckman" and get doubly overpaid!

 

[Leroy]

Forwards and Rucks are the most overpaid in the game so so a smart person would say, "I'm a forward slash ruckman" and get doubly overpaid!

It's almost like salivating list managers think "we don't have a strong ruck or strong KPFs... lets get a forward slash ruck" and end up with a player who is neither an elite forward, nor an elite ruck who then gets injured

Same deal as a cricket team trying to fit in an all-rounder who doesn't cut it either as a batsman or a bowler...

 

[Bermi]

I can't open the article below, but it looks like Grundy is a needed player at Collingwood.

‘He makes us better’: Pies coach on Grundy
Collingwood coach Craig McRae believes any commentary about star ruckman Brodie Grundy being a fading force is shortsighted.

Read article

1 hour ago, Herald Sun, Collingwood Magpies

 

[Lost In The Sky]

I can't open the article below, but it looks like Grundy is a needed player at Collingwood.

‘He makes us better’: Pies coach on Grundy
Collingwood coach Craig McRae believes any commentary about star ruckman Brodie Grundy being a fading force is shortsighted.

Read article

1 hour ago, Herald Sun, Collingwood Magpies

Here you go...

Collingwood coach Craig McRae believes any commentary about star ruckman Brodie Grundy being a fading force is shortsighted.

The million-dollar big man is at the centre of growing trade speculation that his future might be elsewhere, with the Giants looking the leading candidate if he was to move.

Both South Australian clubs could be contenders if a Grundy trade becomes a reality.

The Magpies’ Darcy Cameron-Mason Cox ruck combination in Grundy’s lengthy knee-related absence has worked well – at a much cheaper rate – but McRae said the dual All-Australian “makes us better”.

He also confirmed that Grundy, who will play at VFL or AFL level next week, was an automatic inclusion once he was fit enough.

“We do probably look only as far as our nose at times, don’t we?” McRae said.

“His last game was, funnily enough, against (Sunday’s opponent) the Bombers.

“He was second-best on-field on Anzac Day for the medal, dominated centre bounces in that time, kicked a critical goal with a sore knee.
“We do forget how good our players are sometimes. We’re looking forward to getting him back.”

Grundy’s agent, Robbie D’Orazio, of Connors Sports, was spotted leaving a meeting with GWS football and list boss Jason McCartney this week, which only added to the emerging trade drama.

“We can’t control some of those things that others do, particularly other clubs, so I’ll leave that list management stuff up to Graham Wright,” McRae said.

“I’m here to protect and love our players and make them the best they can be while they’re here.”

 

[Tails]

Here you go...

Collingwood coach Craig McRae believes any commentary about star ruckman Brodie Grundy being a fading force is shortsighted.

The million-dollar big man is at the centre of growing trade speculation that his future might be elsewhere, with the Giants looking the leading candidate if he was to move.

Both South Australian clubs could be contenders if a Grundy trade becomes a reality.

The Magpies’ Darcy Cameron-Mason Cox ruck combination in Grundy’s lengthy knee-related absence has worked well – at a much cheaper rate – but McRae said the dual All-Australian “makes us better”.

He also confirmed that Grundy, who will play at VFL or AFL level next week, was an automatic inclusion once he was fit enough.

“We do probably look only as far as our nose at times, don’t we?” McRae said.

“His last game was, funnily enough, against (Sunday’s opponent) the Bombers.

“He was second-best on-field on Anzac Day for the medal, dominated centre bounces in that time, kicked a critical goal with a sore knee.
“We do forget how good our players are sometimes. We’re looking forward to getting him back.”

Grundy’s agent, Robbie D’Orazio, of Connors Sports, was spotted leaving a meeting with GWS football and list boss Jason McCartney this week, which only added to the emerging trade drama.

“We can’t control some of those things that others do, particularly other clubs, so I’ll leave that list management stuff up to Graham Wright,” McRae said.

“I’m here to protect and love our players and make them the best they can be while they’re here.”

lol .. I read that as we are looking to offload Grundy and will say anything to uphold the value that we've overpaid to hold him thus far ...