Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus, Based on your previous comment, do you think that Libatore is a better choice than Rockliff? He would also work better for my bye round. My main concern is that I am not sure if Libba can back up his fantastic 2013
I rate Libba in front of Rocky, but Libba does have a big history to over come, that has tripped up many good players before. Only Swan and Ablett have beaten the "raise your average by 20+, and score over 102/game for the season" curse, out of 30 players that have managed that feat!
 

tracygrims

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I rate Libba in front of Rocky, but Libba does have a big history to over come, that has tripped up many good players before. Only Swan and Ablett have beaten the "raise your average by 20+, and score over 102/game for the season" curse, out of 30 players that have managed that feat!
Hey Rowsus,
I'm not sure if you would have the information readily available, but if you reduced the threshold for breakout contender say one point at a time from 20+ to 19+ and so on, who would be the next player to join Swan and Ablett?

Going through the your work in the thread Chasing Last Years Points (MKII) I see if you change the threshold of breakout contender in another way; down by 2 points to 100 you can include players like Cotchin, Shaw, Roughead, McEvoy and if you decrease it to 99 you can increase Swan (a second time) and possibly others? While Ablett and Swan seem to clearly be outliers, the rest of the pack is not too far behind Liberatore - as arguably it is also easier to increase your average again when it is at the lower end of the range.

Therefore I don't think someone like Liberatore needs to join Ablett or Swan in the absolute elite category, but perhaps be just 6 points ahead of Cotchin or if you consider Cotchin's improvement over 2 seasons which was about +32 points, Liberatore doesn't even need to repeat that to still be a great pick in 2014.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,
I'm not sure if you would have the information readily available, but if you reduced the threshold for breakout contender say one point at a time from 20+ to 19+ and so on, who would be the next player to join Swan and Ablett?

Going through the your work in the thread Chasing Last Years Points (MKII) I see if you change the threshold of breakout contender in another way; down by 2 points to 100 you can include players like Cotchin, Shaw, Roughead, McEvoy and if you decrease it to 99 you can increase Swan (a second time) and possibly others? While Ablett and Swan seem to clearly be outliers, the rest of the pack is not too far behind Liberatore - as arguably it is also easier to increase your average again when it is at the lower end of the range.

Therefore I don't think someone like Liberatore needs to join Ablett or Swan in the absolute elite category, but perhaps be just 6 points ahead of Cotchin or if you consider Cotchin's improvement over 2 seasons which was about +32 points, Liberatore doesn't even need to repeat that to still be a great pick in 2014.
I thought about creating that data base as being interactive, so I could change the 102, or the +20, but decided the work involved didn't match the reward. So I saved myself some time, and just drew a line in the sand. I must admit, it would be very interesting to try different combinations, like +18 and 95 etc. , oh well! :)
 
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Rowsus as a Melbourne fan what do you think of Melbournes chances against West Coast next week? They're currently paying $3.10 head to head at Sportsbet which looks to be pretty good value.

Melbourne look to have a great draw coming off a 8 day break at their home ground without having to travel yet in the premiership season while West Coast make a long trip from the west after a 7 day break.
 

Rowsus

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Not happy with myself for not frolicking with Shiels..
I thought I might hear from your good self on this topic. :(
He's looked good, but it's only game against an inferior opposition. If he looks good against Ess next week I guess you find a way to correct it. Who or which combination did you end up with instead?
 

Rowsus

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Rowsus as a Melbourne fan what do you think of Melbournes chances against West Coast next week? They're currently paying $3.10 head to head at Sportsbet which looks to be pretty good value.

Melbourne look to have a great draw coming off a 8 day break at their home ground without having to travel yet in the premiership season while West Coast make a long trip from the west after a 7 day break.
I'm going to be perfectly honest, and say it looks like unders to me. While we have improved, we are still not good. Our Rucks will get killed by theirs, even if it's Lycett! I expect WC to win comfortably.
 
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I'm going to be perfectly honest, and say it looks like unders to me. While we have improved, we are still not good. Our Rucks will get killed by theirs, even if it's Lycett! I expect WC to win comfortably.
Thanks, great advice!
 
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I thought I might hear from your good self on this topic. :(
He's looked good, but it's only game against an inferior opposition. If he looks good against Ess next week I guess you find a way to correct it. Who or which combination did you end up with instead?
Even worse than my non frolic, was Thomas instead, stupid! Easy swap, but so ****ed with myself.
 

Krieks

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Hey Rowsus,

Is it possible to look up supercoach scores round by round for last year? Was wanting to put something together around players who have scored well in weeks 1 and/or 2 only to drop back down in the following weeks.. A kind of 'cautionary tale' against early panic trades. Struggling to find the information though.. was hoping you knew anywhere this information exists?

Thanks!
 

stocks71

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Hey Rowsus,

Looking for some advice if you would be so kind. I had Travis Boak all year last year and he rewarded me with a 106 average. I was a little hesitant to grab him at 575k this year but did and he scored a heavily tagged 58. I also have Dale Thomas (I almost feel dirty, and not in a good way for that). I'm loathe to trade this week though.

They are two quality players and sideways trades I've learnt the hard way are never good. But Boak for Watson and Thomas for Tyson/Polec is bloody tempting. Sounds a no brainer but...

Any advice would be very appreciated.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

Is it possible to look up supercoach scores round by round for last year? Was wanting to put something together around players who have scored well in weeks 1 and/or 2 only to drop back down in the following weeks.. A kind of 'cautionary tale' against early panic trades. Struggling to find the information though.. was hoping you knew anywhere this information exists?

Thanks!
Hi Krieks,
I'll pm you the answer.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

Looking for some advice if you would be so kind. I had Travis Boak all year last year and he rewarded me with a 106 average. I was a little hesitant to grab him at 575k this year but did and he scored a heavily tagged 58. I also have Dale Thomas (I almost feel dirty, and not in a good way for that). I'm loathe to trade this week though.

They are two quality players and sideways trades I've learnt the hard way are never good. But Boak for Watson and Thomas for Tyson/Polec is bloody tempting. Sounds a no brainer but...

Any advice would be very appreciated.
Hey stocks71,
if you think you won't need to do more corrective trades, then hold off a week. If you think you will need to do some corrective trades after round 2, then pull the trigger. I can see Tyson/Polec performing at, or just below Daisy's level score-wise, so their dollar making will be much better than Daisy's. I don't believe Boak will be 110+ Keeper, so swapping to Watson also seems ok too.
 
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Hi Rowsus,

I didn't see the Melbourne game but opted for Michie over Tyson because of his ability to rack up points pre season. Did he just have a shocker or was he used differently to pre season?

I'll obviously watch him this week but just keen on hearing your thoughts.

Cheers
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

I didn't see the Melbourne game but opted for Michie over Tyson because of his ability to rack up points pre season. Did he just have a shocker or was he used differently to pre season?

I'll obviously watch him this week but just keen on hearing your thoughts.

Cheers
He just had a shocker, I am confident he can do better. He seemed to be running with Armitage early, but then was freed up and a did a little better. I'm willing to stick with him.
 
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He just had a shocker, I am confident he can do better. He seemed to be running with Armitage early, but then was freed up and a did a little better. I'm willing to stick with him.
Cheers. I should be able to watch every match this weekend so I'll take note of how he goes. My boy Shiels too ...
 
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Hello Guru Rowsus - a question for you. :)

Consider 2 players - Tyson @ 217k and Aish @ 187k.

Realistically, what avg (or how much higher avg) does Tyson have to have compared to Aish to make his increased price worth paying? Noting they are both bye 10 and have good js.

Cheers in advance.

PC
 

expl0it

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Hi expl0it, welcome aboard.
I'm glad you liked the series. Brodie Smith actually appears to be suffering from Henderson going down, not benefitting. He was going to be in the Mid rotations (apparantly), but now has to cover the hole left by Henderson in the backline. This might be one of the reasons Wright is shining so well in the pre-season. He might be filling the vacancy Smith was meant to. I would tread carefully with Smith, or at least, have realisitc expectations.
Cunnington will be a good POD. Just be patient with him. I expect him to really start to shine after the byes.
Hi Rowsus. Was a bit off radar since this last message as I fully focused on finalising my SC. Just wanted to let you know that before lock out, Cunnington was in and out of my team many many times. Was tossing up between Rockliff and him. And my final choice: Cunnington ! And I'm quite content with the decision too - hopefully it pays off. Yes, he did get a 92 against the Bombers and was concussed (gave me a heart attack), but man, he really racks up the contested possessions and clearances! Just a tad worried about the impact of Ziebell or Dal Santo - but, I guess this combination is similar to the Pies with Pendles, Swan and Beams.

If it doesn't pay off, not going to be too disappointed as he can be a POD M8. And, I won't hold it against ya mate !
 
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Hey Rowsus,

Do you reckon I should do this? Next week?

Unfortunately I have J.Martin to offload after his LTI. However I have a bit of cash up my sleeve.
Also have Minson in which in hindsight was a silly move and I probably paid too much for him.
Yes I know he was up against the best Ruck combo in the comp but maybe should have waited.
So my plan (next week - depending on how they both go) was trade Minson to Mumford which would leave me just enough
cash to upgrade J.Martin to Fyfe or Cotchin. Leaning towards Fyfe.
Yes as mentioned I will probably wait a week but only issue is I am thinking Mumford will go big this week against St Kilda.
Or I could just hold the cash and trade Martin to another rookie and wait for a Selwood or Pendles.
My concern is after an ordinary 2152 start I need to get in another Premo mid or FWD
Any suggestions appreciated.

B: Mitchell, McVeigh, Swallow, Hurn, Langdon, Laidler (McDonald, Langford)
M:Ablett, Libba, Murphy, Beams, Dunstan, Tyson, Ellis (Michie,J.MARTIN)
R: MINSON, Sandi (Thurlow, Currie)
F: Danger, Martin, Pav, Caddy, Higgins, Rohan (McDonough, JKH)
 
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