Discussion BBL|12: Planning Thread
- Thread starter KLo30
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Green
2 from Doggett , McAndrew & Sandhu
Farooqi or Qadir
Dec 13 , 16 , 18 & 20 tight fixture to start
Canberra , Sydney , Melbourne , Adelaide
plus they still have one spot to announce + at least 2 replacement players for T Sangha & Warner
and no clarification on Sams
Oh well it's only Sunday night , no rush at all 😉
And apparently Joel Davies was a standout in the practice match , yet there doesn't seem to be a batting line-up , report or scorecard available anywhere 🤔
Green
2 from Doggett , McAndrew & Sandhu
Farooqi or Qadir
Dec 13 , 16 , 18 & 20 tight fixture to start
Canberra , Sydney , Melbourne , Adelaide
plus they still have one spot to announce + at least 2 replacement players for T Sangha & Warner
and no clarification on Sams
Oh well it's only Sunday night , no rush at all 😉
And apparently Joel Davies was a standout in the practice match , yet there doesn't seem to be a batting line-up , report or scorecard available anywhere 🤔
Last edited:
The Stars’ draw looks pretty challenging after R1:
Bye
Perth
Sixers
Perth
No games at the MCG in that stretch.
I had thought I would be reluctant to trade our Stars like NCN after R1, but unless they score really well or show amazing roles/form, he and possibly Zampa may not make as much cash or score as many points as I had anticipated.
Bye
Perth
Sixers
Perth
No games at the MCG in that stretch.
I had thought I would be reluctant to trade our Stars like NCN after R1, but unless they score really well or show amazing roles/form, he and possibly Zampa may not make as much cash or score as many points as I had anticipated.
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I understand the frustrations with trying to set a side for SC but for the most part the above is fairly wrong.
Dan Sams playing or not playing would hardly move the money line for a high variance contest like T20 where at any one time one guy can only do 20% of the bowling and 50% at best of the batting (and usually a far smaller %). The star player of any NBA or EPL side being out has a far greater affect on bettable markets than anything cricket related due to the nature of the game.
Likewise all props on cricket basically aren't listed until which team is batting first is announced, and by then each team has named their XI. Unlike AFL where knowing if the back pocket is going to start up forward genuinely does change markets like first goal scorer than can be bet on days in advance.
It sucks for SC players, but it is what it is. At least we are in the same boat for the most part.
Dan Sams playing or not playing would hardly move the money line for a high variance contest like T20 where at any one time one guy can only do 20% of the bowling and 50% at best of the batting (and usually a far smaller %). The star player of any NBA or EPL side being out has a far greater affect on bettable markets than anything cricket related due to the nature of the game.
Likewise all props on cricket basically aren't listed until which team is batting first is announced, and by then each team has named their XI. Unlike AFL where knowing if the back pocket is going to start up forward genuinely does change markets like first goal scorer than can be bet on days in advance.
It sucks for SC players, but it is what it is. At least we are in the same boat for the most part.
As someone who has been a punter for 45 years, and worked for a large Bookmaker for 13 years, I have to disagree with you, and agree with @KLo30.
Thunder are currently $1.72 fav, in a market set to 105.1%.
Sams is currently $2.10 fav to be Thunders leading wicket taker for the tournament.
Chris Green is currently $6.00 2nd fav to be Thunders leading wicket taker for the tournament.
If you think taking the 2 players expected to be their leading wicket takers out of their team, won't shift the betting line, you're crazy.
As to proposition betting, Sams is currently $3.75 fav to be the leading wicket taker for Thunder, for this match. The market is currently set to a poisonous 192.5% and Sams coming out would see all other players prices drop by roughly 20-25%, if they decide to keep the market that poisonous!
My guesstimate is, that if Sams is confirmed as not playing, Thunder could get out to $1.80. If Green was to be added as a confirmed out, that might be $1.82. There is a huge difference between $1.72 and $1.82. The biggest difference in those prices is reflected in the Stars price, which would shift from $2.13 into $1.98.
Punters are very re-active, and usually they over-react. I can't see Bookmakers have set their current prices with the expectation that Sams isn't playing. That could cause problems for them if/when he does. It is possible they have shaded the odds slightly, in case he is out, but only very marginally.
Thunder are currently $1.72 fav, in a market set to 105.1%.
Sams is currently $2.10 fav to be Thunders leading wicket taker for the tournament.
Chris Green is currently $6.00 2nd fav to be Thunders leading wicket taker for the tournament.
If you think taking the 2 players expected to be their leading wicket takers out of their team, won't shift the betting line, you're crazy.
As to proposition betting, Sams is currently $3.75 fav to be the leading wicket taker for Thunder, for this match. The market is currently set to a poisonous 192.5% and Sams coming out would see all other players prices drop by roughly 20-25%, if they decide to keep the market that poisonous!
My guesstimate is, that if Sams is confirmed as not playing, Thunder could get out to $1.80. If Green was to be added as a confirmed out, that might be $1.82. There is a huge difference between $1.72 and $1.82. The biggest difference in those prices is reflected in the Stars price, which would shift from $2.13 into $1.98.
Punters are very re-active, and usually they over-react. I can't see Bookmakers have set their current prices with the expectation that Sams isn't playing. That could cause problems for them if/when he does. It is possible they have shaded the odds slightly, in case he is out, but only very marginally.
It's great to have 4 games in 2 rounds if you had confidence in which bowlers are a chance to play all 4 games🤬. Don't know if their strike player is playing and the only bowler outside of Sams I have confidence that may play all 4 is being looked at for a suspicious action so he could miss games at anytime. So in hindsight I may just bypass all Thunder bowlers Let the fun begin.
PS. Not sure on Hardie role for Scorchers. I think he bats below Faf, Bligh, Bancroft and Inglis (maybe even Turner who is their best finisher) and may not even bowl (1-2 overs max if that).
PS. Not sure on Hardie role for Scorchers. I think he bats below Faf, Bligh, Bancroft and Inglis (maybe even Turner who is their best finisher) and may not even bowl (1-2 overs max if that).
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