Position 2023: Forwards Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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It's true that there aren't really any stand out options at that $500k mark (Young, Daicos and Ridley all have their concerns) but that still leaves open the question of how the DEF line gets completed. Lets assume the big five from last year all remain in the top 6, that means funding some serious upgrades to players who are all starting at $600k+ and potentially wont drop much (assuming they punch out consistently good scores). Given the way the game is now played, good defenders are almost as reliable as midfielders. Sinclair is probably the only one with a question mark. The other four have pretty compelling cases for maintaining the same scoring levels.
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Yeah but....
You will probably need to chase a couple of 600k+ forwards after the DPP change. Maybe also a 600k ruck. Undoubtedly, you'll have a few mids to chase and they could even be as much as 650k (or 580).
However you structure at the start, you are still going to have to chase those big players and at this stage of the year, we just don't know which line that is going to be easiest on. Like, assume you go light in the forwards.... Are you going to chase a Taranto/Gulden/Rozee if they have started well and you still have holes in the mids? Or an underperforming ruck division? Or any form of injury to attend to?
I think that the answer might be to not rely on having too many on any line slip. So rather than grabbing 4 high priced defenders (which also increases your odds of starting one that you should have faded), you grab only the 2 (for example). Then there's a good chance that you only have to chase a couple of 600k players and maybe you can still nab a couple of the cheap.
Now... about me taking my own advice up forward
You will probably need to chase a couple of 600k+ forwards after the DPP change. Maybe also a 600k ruck. Undoubtedly, you'll have a few mids to chase and they could even be as much as 650k (or 580).
However you structure at the start, you are still going to have to chase those big players and at this stage of the year, we just don't know which line that is going to be easiest on. Like, assume you go light in the forwards.... Are you going to chase a Taranto/Gulden/Rozee if they have started well and you still have holes in the mids? Or an underperforming ruck division? Or any form of injury to attend to?
I think that the answer might be to not rely on having too many on any line slip. So rather than grabbing 4 high priced defenders (which also increases your odds of starting one that you should have faded), you grab only the 2 (for example). Then there's a good chance that you only have to chase a couple of 600k players and maybe you can still nab a couple of the cheap.
Now... about me taking my own advice up forward
Yeah but....
You will probably need to chase a couple of 600k+ forwards after the DPP change. Maybe also a 600k ruck. Undoubtedly, you'll have a few mids to chase and they could even be as much as 650k (or 580).
However you structure at the start, you are still going to have to chase those big players and at this stage of the year, we just don't know which line that is going to be easiest on. Like, assume you go light in the forwards.... Are you going to chase a Taranto/Gulden/Rozee if they have started well and you still have holes in the mids? Or an underperforming ruck division? Or any form of injury to attend to?
I think that the answer might be to not rely on having too many on any line slip. So rather than grabbing 4 high priced defenders (which also increases your odds of starting one that you should have faded), you grab only the 2 (for example). Then there's a good chance that you only have to chase a couple of 600k players and maybe you can still nab a couple of the cheap.
Now... about me taking my own advice up forward
You will probably need to chase a couple of 600k+ forwards after the DPP change. Maybe also a 600k ruck. Undoubtedly, you'll have a few mids to chase and they could even be as much as 650k (or 580).
However you structure at the start, you are still going to have to chase those big players and at this stage of the year, we just don't know which line that is going to be easiest on. Like, assume you go light in the forwards.... Are you going to chase a Taranto/Gulden/Rozee if they have started well and you still have holes in the mids? Or an underperforming ruck division? Or any form of injury to attend to?
I think that the answer might be to not rely on having too many on any line slip. So rather than grabbing 4 high priced defenders (which also increases your odds of starting one that you should have faded), you grab only the 2 (for example). Then there's a good chance that you only have to chase a couple of 600k players and maybe you can still nab a couple of the cheap.
Now... about me taking my own advice up forward
Yeah but....
You will probably need to chase a couple of 600k+ forwards after the DPP change. Maybe also a 600k ruck. Undoubtedly, you'll have a few mids to chase and they could even be as much as 650k (or 580).
However you structure at the start, you are still going to have to chase those big players and at this stage of the year, we just don't know which line that is going to be easiest on. Like, assume you go light in the forwards.... Are you going to chase a Taranto/Gulden/Rozee if they have started well and you still have holes in the mids? Or an underperforming ruck division? Or any form of injury to attend to?
I think that the answer might be to not rely on having too many on any line slip. So rather than grabbing 4 high priced defenders (which also increases your odds of starting one that you should have faded), you grab only the 2 (for example). Then there's a good chance that you only have to chase a couple of 600k players and maybe you can still nab a couple of the cheap.
Now... about me taking my own advice up forward
You will probably need to chase a couple of 600k+ forwards after the DPP change. Maybe also a 600k ruck. Undoubtedly, you'll have a few mids to chase and they could even be as much as 650k (or 580).
However you structure at the start, you are still going to have to chase those big players and at this stage of the year, we just don't know which line that is going to be easiest on. Like, assume you go light in the forwards.... Are you going to chase a Taranto/Gulden/Rozee if they have started well and you still have holes in the mids? Or an underperforming ruck division? Or any form of injury to attend to?
I think that the answer might be to not rely on having too many on any line slip. So rather than grabbing 4 high priced defenders (which also increases your odds of starting one that you should have faded), you grab only the 2 (for example). Then there's a good chance that you only have to chase a couple of 600k players and maybe you can still nab a couple of the cheap.
Now... about me taking my own advice up forward
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I'm torn on Sheezal, Phillipou & Ratugolea. If i knew they were all going to average identical i would pick Ratugolea for his ruck cover, however i think his ceiling is 60, i base this on SDK and Jack Henry both averaging 65 and 61 and i think they are both better at this role than Ratugolea. I am not convinced either phillipou or Sheezal do any better though. If they both play the half fwd role i am convinced they will averaged mid 60's tops for 2 sides i think will be bottom 6. Sheezal getting stints in the backline would be the wildcard which could pump his prospect up to 70 plus.
So I'll go through the logic as to why I don't think that's necessarily the case. Firstly, my team as it stands:
Reverse engineering, the way I got Gulden and Bruhn was trading Oliver. Let's see how the team looks reverting the side.
So the defence and ruck line remain almost unchanged. One difference is that Madden replaces Ratugolea at R3 - but to fund even just Madden, Philipou must be taken down to Alwyn Davey on the forward bench. Lachlan McAndrew is basically completely done for as an option now, so there's not even him as a prospect to generate some cash, so might as well go Madden. Alwyn Davey might be better than Phillipou, but at least we had the option.
Additionally, we still have McLean on field, but instead of ANY of Greene, Davey/Phillipou, Cincotta, Chesser, Baker, Wilmot or Constable able to sub in for him, we're reduced to using just Greene or Davey.
Secondly, now Ratugolea comes onto the field. The general consensus is that if he does manage to hold down a spot, he's probably not safe enough to field. Granted, we could turn him into a Sheezel or Allen, but the issue remains.
But there's still Clayton Oliver. Obviously, he provides a massive boost to scoring power, especially as a Captaincy option. But he does not provide potential value, where Gulden and Bruhn do. Additionally, with Dunkley moving to the Lions, and Bont raising his floor whilst also possessing an astronomical ceiling, we already have two solid leadership options. But let's say we compare the scoring potential of Oliver and Ratugolea versus Gulden and Bruhn.
125+55 v 90+80
So we gain 10 points here, giving Gulden a very conservative output. Bruhn gets a 25 point per game boost, but he could be considered to potentially earn more. On the other side of the equation, Ratugolea could conceivably average more at some point, especially with a boosted score from a great game, but from what McCartin, Gibcus and SDK showed in 2022, that's more likely to happen around early mid-season - rounds 8 onward, and by that time, he's less likely to be on field anyway. Oliver could certainly push 130, but I think 125 is a very reasonable estimation. So Gulden and Bruhn have a massive amount of potential upside, where Oliver is the safer pick - one I would normally take.
Okay, so let's consider other options. Maybe we don't take Oliver, but we also don't pick Bruhn AND Gulden. Let's say we lose Gulden, and we keep the money from going Phillipou to Alwyn Davey, so we have $520k to spend. Where do we use it?
In defence we can pick up Daicos, who divided opinions in his games, Young, who barely fired a shot, or Ridley, who firmed into contention but shone in a game against absolute zero opposition. Additionally, anyone of them pushes Yeo to D4, which probably bats deeper than most sides.
Okay, so let's try the midfield next. Tom Mitchell is the obvious play - but we already have Tom Green at around the same price bracket. We're just swapping a risk for a risk in a harder line to accomplish keeper status. Granted, Tom Mitchell has a more obvious path forward, but unlike Gulden, he's on the wrong side of the age curve.
Okay, so instead of losing Gulden, we trade Cogs instead. An extra $80k goes a long way.
Let's see who we can get?
In defence - Tom Stewart. Obviously a decent pick, but the defence is really batting heavy now. In the midfield it's Josh Kelly or Darcy Parish, both of which are absolutely fraught with risk as starting options.
(We can easily turn Bruhn into a Worpel type. Less flexible being Mid only, so we won't go too far into that).
So let's see if we can split the Gulden $$$ into something useful instead of investing it in one player.
Alright, that's a little better. But now instead of 12 potential keepers, 3 midpricers and 7 rookies, we now have 11 potential keepers, 5 midpricers and one midpricer/rookie, and 5 rookies. Alternatives with some finangling could be Callaghan, Fyfe, or Flanders instead. We sacrifice potential for more security - and personally, I don't want to pick Ziebell, Fyfe or Liam Jones types, and Worpel is a very meh pick to me. I'd rather have the excitement of Gulden potentially going 140.
This is obviously an extremely long post, and there's probably a myriad of other ways to use the Gulden + Bruhn funds, but very few of them would be ways that I would use them.
Reverse engineering, the way I got Gulden and Bruhn was trading Oliver. Let's see how the team looks reverting the side.
So the defence and ruck line remain almost unchanged. One difference is that Madden replaces Ratugolea at R3 - but to fund even just Madden, Philipou must be taken down to Alwyn Davey on the forward bench. Lachlan McAndrew is basically completely done for as an option now, so there's not even him as a prospect to generate some cash, so might as well go Madden. Alwyn Davey might be better than Phillipou, but at least we had the option.
Additionally, we still have McLean on field, but instead of ANY of Greene, Davey/Phillipou, Cincotta, Chesser, Baker, Wilmot or Constable able to sub in for him, we're reduced to using just Greene or Davey.
Secondly, now Ratugolea comes onto the field. The general consensus is that if he does manage to hold down a spot, he's probably not safe enough to field. Granted, we could turn him into a Sheezel or Allen, but the issue remains.
But there's still Clayton Oliver. Obviously, he provides a massive boost to scoring power, especially as a Captaincy option. But he does not provide potential value, where Gulden and Bruhn do. Additionally, with Dunkley moving to the Lions, and Bont raising his floor whilst also possessing an astronomical ceiling, we already have two solid leadership options. But let's say we compare the scoring potential of Oliver and Ratugolea versus Gulden and Bruhn.
125+55 v 90+80
So we gain 10 points here, giving Gulden a very conservative output. Bruhn gets a 25 point per game boost, but he could be considered to potentially earn more. On the other side of the equation, Ratugolea could conceivably average more at some point, especially with a boosted score from a great game, but from what McCartin, Gibcus and SDK showed in 2022, that's more likely to happen around early mid-season - rounds 8 onward, and by that time, he's less likely to be on field anyway. Oliver could certainly push 130, but I think 125 is a very reasonable estimation. So Gulden and Bruhn have a massive amount of potential upside, where Oliver is the safer pick - one I would normally take.
Okay, so let's consider other options. Maybe we don't take Oliver, but we also don't pick Bruhn AND Gulden. Let's say we lose Gulden, and we keep the money from going Phillipou to Alwyn Davey, so we have $520k to spend. Where do we use it?
In defence we can pick up Daicos, who divided opinions in his games, Young, who barely fired a shot, or Ridley, who firmed into contention but shone in a game against absolute zero opposition. Additionally, anyone of them pushes Yeo to D4, which probably bats deeper than most sides.
Okay, so let's try the midfield next. Tom Mitchell is the obvious play - but we already have Tom Green at around the same price bracket. We're just swapping a risk for a risk in a harder line to accomplish keeper status. Granted, Tom Mitchell has a more obvious path forward, but unlike Gulden, he's on the wrong side of the age curve.
Okay, so instead of losing Gulden, we trade Cogs instead. An extra $80k goes a long way.
Let's see who we can get?
In defence - Tom Stewart. Obviously a decent pick, but the defence is really batting heavy now. In the midfield it's Josh Kelly or Darcy Parish, both of which are absolutely fraught with risk as starting options.
(We can easily turn Bruhn into a Worpel type. Less flexible being Mid only, so we won't go too far into that).
So let's see if we can split the Gulden $$$ into something useful instead of investing it in one player.
Alright, that's a little better. But now instead of 12 potential keepers, 3 midpricers and 7 rookies, we now have 11 potential keepers, 5 midpricers and one midpricer/rookie, and 5 rookies. Alternatives with some finangling could be Callaghan, Fyfe, or Flanders instead. We sacrifice potential for more security - and personally, I don't want to pick Ziebell, Fyfe or Liam Jones types, and Worpel is a very meh pick to me. I'd rather have the excitement of Gulden potentially going 140.
This is obviously an extremely long post, and there's probably a myriad of other ways to use the Gulden + Bruhn funds, but very few of them would be ways that I would use them.
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D1 Oliver D2-6 as you describe.
Actually D6 could be Whitfield, Saad and other 3 you mention, or Cumming. But put a gun to my head right now out of the defence players not mentioned above and I’ll say Rich followed by perhaps Hurn. JZ might DPP his way back to top 6 if Hall and McDonald stay out of the way…. I don’t foresee a problem in getting a D6 to appear plenty of options just not some good SC picks because they’re dinosaurs🦖!
D2-6 as you describe.Actually D6 could be Whitfield, Saad and other 3 you mention, or Cumming. But put a gun to my head right now out of the defence players not mentioned above and I’ll say Rich followed by perhaps Hurn. JZ might DPP his way back to top 6 if Hall and McDonald stay out of the way…. I don’t foresee a problem in getting a D6 to appear plenty of options just not some good SC picks because they’re dinosaurs🦖!
I've got Ratugolea R3 because I've so finely tuned my team as to be able to afford him, but even I'm not seeing the logic to the panic that some seem to be having over Ruck cover. Most seasons we don't start with ruck cover. Some seasons we never get it. Now Darcy and Marshall aren't 2019 Gawndy but we also didn't have 36 trades AND boosts then either.
This was my point initially when everyone was acting like Sav was gods gift to our fantasy sides, have not for one second understood the hype and quite frankly am baffled hes still in a quarter of sides, Geelong had 3 key defenders with more talent in their big toe than him last year and not one of them averaged over 65 and the two that his role will be most comparable to went 61 and 56, not to mention Henry missed 8 games last year and they went without an extra key defender and didn't lose a game, not sure where the notion Sav has suddenly become a walk up starter has come from in all honesty.
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Cameron is my hardest call and biggest enigma. Although he did have another score below 70, which was against Carlton.
Taking his 5 highest and 5 lowest scores from last year, there seems almost no connection between his ruck split with Cox and SC scores. Post Grundy of course.
Highest 5 scores he averaged - 59% CBA, 83 RC, 21 HO, 61% RC. 120 SC
Lowest 5 scores he averaged - 56% CBA, 99 RC, 23 HO, 56% RC. 69 SC
Most of the SC scores difference can be attributed to lower possession count and goals scored.
Interestingly, his 4 lowest scores came after round 17, so maybe fatigue was the main factor and not Cox.
Problem is, he's not viable on the ruck line and there's already sooooo much value in the fwds. If I put him in, he'll be F5 😯😯
Taking his 5 highest and 5 lowest scores from last year, there seems almost no connection between his ruck split with Cox and SC scores. Post Grundy of course.
Highest 5 scores he averaged - 59% CBA, 83 RC, 21 HO, 61% RC. 120 SC
Lowest 5 scores he averaged - 56% CBA, 99 RC, 23 HO, 56% RC. 69 SC
Most of the SC scores difference can be attributed to lower possession count and goals scored.
Interestingly, his 4 lowest scores came after round 17, so maybe fatigue was the main factor and not Cox.
Problem is, he's not viable on the ruck line and there's already sooooo much value in the fwds. If I put him in, he'll be F5 😯😯