Strategy 2023: Round 6 Trades

[mwross91]

This feels like a pretty important week.
Lots of people upgrading so if you don't fair chance of falling behind. But who to trade out is tough;

Options for me:
- Jones (looked good again, and playing Freo this week who have been dump kicking the footy forward without a really strong fwd line)
- Ginbey (probably has the highest scoring potential of all players here and most likely to make another $100k - even if there's a slight drop this week)
- McKenna (low scoring, but low-ish floor)
- Baker (probably a definite out for me this week, or next)
- Cowan (just doesn't seem to have the scoring, so even holding him for another 4 weeks will only make about $40k)

Targets for me:
- Touk, Neale or Stewart
- Roberts
- Not sold on Johnson or Williams in terms of JS but might have to get one of them...

The right move weirdly feels like McKenna, Cowan and Baker for Neale, Roberts and Mitchell (although I HATE going early on rookies, but he passed the eye test and I don't trust Johnson/ Williams).

Allows me to keep Jones and Ginbey who can turn into Stewart in a few weeks time.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Lol at Green's clear downward trajectory

 

[dlanod]

Lol at Green's clear downward trajectory

He's still going to come good!

*desperate*

 

[Eagling]

These comments are predicated on Ginbey not missing more than one game with whatever he picked up yesterday/being rested.


while on face value the decision to trade out ginbey and potentially Mackenzie too this week, appears an easy one given their high break evens and stalled cash making, every year there are a couple of rookies who have a down game and come back strong to restart their cash generation. I just think given the quality of these two kids in particular and their importance in a developing team, they may be two such players to do this.

I think maybe just worthwhile considering this before making a call on them and taking a longer term view with them as I don’t think they are your average rookie, Ginbey especially looks like he’s got some big consistent scoring in him.

I absolutely agree with these points, but on the other hand I can get Touk with 2 trades instead of 3 by trading Ginbey now and forgoing a potential extra chunk of change around the byes

 

[I am Cursed :(]

I'm feeling stubborn holding Andy Brayshaw and Tom Green...................

Is that wrong? Thoughts?? I did it with Doch and paid the price not going to Daicos sooner, the only saving grace was his injury forced my hand.

 

[Bontempele]

I'm feeling stubborn holding Andy Brayshaw and Tom Green...................

Is that wrong? Thoughts?? I did it with Doch and paid the price not going to Daicos sooner, the only saving grace was his injury forced my hand.

I think it probably makes sense Brayshaw given his durability and historical scoring. Unsure about Green if out for two, but I think keep if out for one.

 

[Bontempele]

This feels like a pretty important week.
Lots of people upgrading so if you don't fair chance of falling behind. But who to trade out is tough;

Options for me:
- Jones (looked good again, and playing Freo this week who have been dump kicking the footy forward without a really strong fwd line)
- Ginbey (probably has the highest scoring potential of all players here and most likely to make another $100k - even if there's a slight drop this week)
- McKenna (low scoring, but low-ish floor)
- Baker (probably a definite out for me this week, or next)
- Cowan (just doesn't seem to have the scoring, so even holding him for another 4 weeks will only make about $40k)

Targets for me:
- Touk, Neale or Stewart
- Roberts
- Not sold on Johnson or Williams in terms of JS but might have to get one of them...

The right move weirdly feels like McKenna, Cowan and Baker for Neale, Roberts and Mitchell (although I HATE going early on rookies, but he passed the eye test and I don't trust Johnson/ Williams).

Allows me to keep Jones and Ginbey who can turn into Stewart in a few weeks time.

Nice looking trades! Curious why you don't trust Johnson / Williams as much as Mitch? Also curious on why trading McKenna before Ginbey?

 

[THCLT]

 

[XabiFernando]

Some thought for the Ginbey traders:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1647729080006250497

View: https://twitter.com/HoneyballAFL/status/1647729080006250497?t=LtCDUAyTzJxMPsF8iNAHNA&s=19

 

[MightyTiges]

Out: McKenzie, Ginbey, Ashcroft
In: Roberts, Williams, Neale

However, I'm wondering is it better to pay top dollar for a Neale, or go for someone whose price has bottomed out?

Neale has dropped 40k from his original starting price, so you're not paying top $ for him & has a b/e of 90, so now is a pretty good time to get him in if you feel he's a top 8 mid, which I think he still is. Yeh he probably never fully bottomed out, especially with this spike score this week but is decent value at 40k cheaper than starting price.

It's he or Miller who I'm bringing in but I think im going Lachie this week, even though Miller probably has the easier draw coming up.

 

[baz_machine]

If Daicos gets to level price as Oliver, it's soooo tempting to try and pull a "shark move" and sideways it.

Will I do it; 99% not. But I like to think it.

If I didn't start Laird, I'd almost certainly be doing it.

 

[dylan123]

Even with Sheezel and Ziebell gaining DEF status, I am inclined to leave them forward (but open the link with Mitchell next week). The defender premiums appear to be averaging higher than the forwards (from a depth perspective) so targeting defender upgrades is a priority (for me).

This week it comes down to whether I want to upgrade Backs or Mids.

Ginbey is out and probably Baker for Roberts and Jonhson. Then upgrades I am thinking either Lloyd (defence) and Bont/Touk/Laird (mids). Brayshaw almost going to be a straught swap for Setters/Worpel/Hopper soon.

I also wonder who might get fwd status after the first 6 weeks? Gawn may have been a chance but I don't know what happens with limited games played - is there a minimum number required to get a new status or just based on percentage after 6, 12, 18 rounds?

Bailey Smith I'd another I suspect will get it but has looked pretty poor. I'm sure there are others, not sure if any are worth looking at though.

Also for those with Chesser, Constable, Wilmont, thry are handy links to swing into the midfield to open up spots for the North duo.

 

[dlanod]

Neale has dropped 40k from his original starting price, so you're not paying top $ for him & has a b/e of 90, so now is a pretty good time to get him in if you feel he's a top 8 mid, which I think he still is. Yeh he probably never fully bottomed out, especially with this spike score this week but is decent value at 40k cheaper than starting price.

It's he or Miller who I'm bringing in but I think im going Lachie this week, even though Miller probably has the easier draw coming up.

But I want Oliver... but Neale is $50k less... but I want Oliver...

 

[baz_machine]

I also wonder who might get fwd status after the first 6 weeks? Gawn may have been a chance but I don't know what happens with limited games played - is there a minimum number required to get a new status or just based on percentage after 6, 12, 18 rounds?

Bailey Smith I'd another I suspect will get it but has looked pretty poor. I'm sure there are others, not sure if any are worth looking at though.

Also for those with Chesser, Constable, Wilmont, thry are handy links to swing into the midfield to open up spots for the North duo.

Think it was 4 games for the first DPP, then maybe it goes up to 6? it definitely gets harder from memory

 

[jel]

Trade Assist's recommendations

 

[mwross91]

Nice looking trades! Curious why you don't trust Johnson / Williams as much as Mitch? Also curious on why trading McKenna before Ginbey?

Both fair questions...
Biggest issue with Johnson is that he's been sub twice already, and Freo are playing pretty average footy at the moment meaning that no one is set in their position. I think I might end up being swayed to grab him though as it's the smarter choice over Mitchell.

Williams I haven't watched enough of, so going off comments I've seen about slightly shaky JS (but think that's the case with all downgrade options). Georgiades was dropped along with a couple others for Williams to come in. He then kicked 3 goals in the VFL - so he must be close to returning.

Mitchell passed the eye test for me, but given some time i've looked at who's pushing for selection/ returning from injury and although he helps with Def/Fwd status it might be best to wait on him to see if he locks a spot.

I'm going to keep Ginbey as a POD. He's shown that he has a high ceiling. While Mckenna hasn't lit the world on fire, and he might have some tough assignments with Toby Green and Walters as potential matchups in coming weeks.
On the other hand, West Coast have Port, Carlton, Richmond, Suns and Hawks as their next few opponents. Hoping he gets back to his early form after only having to play half a game this week before being subbed to be managed. While he has a high BE this week, after that it goes back down and he looks more likely to get $400k than McKenna.

 

[Zimmer]

I have no idea how to negotiate the byes - which needs to be taken into account with my trading from now on. ***? What is the logic behind them? I guess it doesn't matter - they have to be dealt with.

 

[MightyTiges]

But I want Oliver... but Neale is $50k less... but I want Oliver...

I want Oliver too, still basically at his starting price though of just under 700k, has a b/e of 168. Here's hoping he doesn't destroy it this week v my Tiges and price goes down a little; can then think of maybe moving Setterfield on for him.

 

[inwhiterooms]

I could 'rid' myself of a couple of non-keepers in Ridley (see what I did back there?) and Hayden Young. Does the below feel too meh?

Ridley / Young / Setterfield > Stew / Touk / Roberts?

Team below for context. Stew and Touk are my #1 upgrade targets at the mo.

 

[Miller is a Steele]

Williams I haven't watched enough of, so going off comments I've seen about slightly shaky JS (but think that's the case with all downgrade options). Georgiades was dropped along with a couple others for Williams to come in. He then kicked 3 goals in the VFL - so he must be close to returning.

Williams has been playing across HB. Their line up last week was:
Allir, McKenzie, Burton
Bergman, Farrell, Houston
Williams

The competition looks to be Clurey/Jonas as KPD but the likely scenario if one of them come in is Bergman goes back onto the wing (he played tall last week). Riley Bonner is the most likely to take his spot IMO. Lachie Jones is a chance to take his spot and also Byrne-Jones if they decide to play him across HB again after playing HF last week.