Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

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Exactly. If you get the 2-3 right, you’re well ahead, it’s just that the odds are generally not great, so they either need to be no brainer type picks (maybe Preuss??) or you have to back the right ones.

The average quality of the midpricers drops away rapidly as you take #4, #5 and so on, so I think that approach is best avoided.
I’ve got my eye on around 6 but will whittle that down to 2-3 in due course. Preuss looking like being the highest owned player this year. Awaiting pre season injury to ruin those plans.
 
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I’ve got my eye on around 6 but will whittle that down to 2-3 in due course. Preuss looking like being the highest owned player this year. Awaiting pre season injury to ruin those plans.
Almost everyone who has posted a team has gone Grundy/Preuss/Treacy to this point. I'm sure a bunch of our top coaches will be laughing as they select Gawn as a POD...

Gotta be careful falling into the groupthink - and the picker has only been open a day!
 
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I reckon there are more semi-interesting (or at least “name”) players around the $300k region than in other years.

I’ll be trying to avoid the vast majority, but could be tempted by 2 or 3.
At the end of the day though , doesn't our final sides rely completely on which rookie priced players are named for Round 1 ?

Until then we all have our own idea and thoughts , read and research but everything is conjecture and speculation.

And then the mad scramble is on during Round 1 to adjust half our players.

But the 2-3 month leadup is so much fun 😀

Milera
Green , Caldwell , Heppell , Hately
Preuss , S Martin
all those forwards I mentioned

probably others

There will mountains of posts about how GnR is the way to go , MPM doesn't work etc etc in the coming months but ultimately final team selection is always based on Rookies.

Hindsight will tell us which ones will go 90+ or be successful enough as a stepping stone
 
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I’ve got my eye on around 6 but will whittle that down to 2-3 in due course. Preuss looking like being the highest owned player this year. Awaiting pre season injury to ruin those plans.
Preuss gets Gawn and Grundy in rnds 3 and 4 and NicNat in rnd 10. He doesn't make a lot of money early and his cash generation gets stalled before the byes, and he has the first bye so can't be slungshot. Gawn has a clean run at the start of the year and his price might not drop that much. I don't think Preuss is a bad pick in isolation but is it worth locking in a trade for a neutral result and how do you get to Gawn if he just keeps trucken?
 

Darkie

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At the end of the day though , doesn't our final sides rely completely on which rookie priced players are named for Round 1 ?

Until then we all have our own idea and thoughts , read and research but everything is conjecture and speculation.

And then the mad scramble is on during Round 1 to adjust half our players.

But the 2-3 month leadup is so much fun 😀

Milera
Green , Caldwell , Heppell , Hately
Preuss , S Martin
all those forwards I mentioned

probably others

There will mountains of posts about how GnR is the way to go , MPM doesn't work etc etc in the coming months but ultimately final team selection is always based on Rookies.

Hindsight will tell us which ones will go 90+ or be successful enough as a stepping stone
I think this is largely right, but having your preferred premiums lined up (eg 3-4 of your 5 kids being largely locked) is quite helpful so that you have an idea of where you’re heading - like your scenario planning in IPL/BBL.

Also not a bad way to while away the time over summer waiting for the next cricket match to start! 🙂

Edit: the other thing is that the rookies almost always show up - it just often looks like they won’t!
 
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I think this is largely right, but having your preferred premiums lined up (eg 3-4 of your 5 kids being largely locked) is quite helpful so that you have an idea of where you’re heading - like your scenario planning in IPL/BBL.

Also not a bad way to while away the time over summer waiting for the next cricket match to start! 🙂
I won't get too attached just yet (funny my brain completely shuts off AFL thinking at this time of year) but just found my initial ideas/thoughts at the end of last season and it is/was :-

Lloyd , Laird , Whitfield
Macrae , Mitchell , Fyfe , Cripps
Grundy , Marshall
Dunkley , Dusty , Heeney

which based on my calculations at the time was $ 7,087,593.80

Just checking some prices on here looks like they are all under $ 8 - 10 k lower.

10 onfield rookies = $ 2 million
Bench Rookies = $ 1 million

Also had written down

Defenders - 4
Midfielders - 9
Ruckman - 2
Forward - 8

Players to check 2021 starting prices.

Didn't really pay much attention to the Draft and haven't looked at the draw yet.
 
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Preuss gets Gawn and Grundy in rnds 3 and 4 and NicNat in rnd 10. He doesn't make a lot of money early and his cash generation gets stalled before the byes, and he has the first bye so can't be slungshot. Gawn has a clean run at the start of the year and his price might not drop that much. I don't think Preuss is a bad pick in isolation but is it worth locking in a trade for a neutral result and how do you get to Gawn if he just keeps trucken?
Interesting points, particularly the timing of his difficult opponents.

But Gawn can score at his previous best before last season (and personally I will be treating last year's scores very skeptically across the board) and still lose over 100k. If you fill that spot with someone 'neutral' it's almost worth the price of the trade itself to avoid his loss in value. Captain scores might make the difference in Gawn's favour if there aren't other good C options available, but it wouldn't be a huge win. And there's a lot of downside below that if Gawn starts slowly or doesn't reach his previous heights for some reason.

Can fill the spot with Marshall and avoid both Gawn and Preuss, which might be a good option if Preuss does reach silly ownership levels and you want to pivot away from him. I'd be surprised if that actually happened though. A few addicts here in December doesn't say much about what the bulk of people will be doing in March.
 
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Haven't had a look at all yet but thinking I might be the only one on this forum to avoid Preuss
I have made a team with no Preuss, traditional Gawn/Grundy combo.

Much depends on preseason, how they are tracking etc. Preuss would be the only mid price/ cheap option I would consider, otherwise I will just back in the usual Gawn/Grundy combo with Marshall in the fwds :-

Screen Shot 2020-12-23 at 10.52.29 am.png
 

Darkie

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I won't get too attached just yet (funny my brain completely shuts off AFL thinking at this time of year) but just found my initial ideas/thoughts at the end of last season and it is/was :-

Lloyd , Laird , Whitfield
Macrae , Mitchell , Fyfe , Cripps
Grundy , Marshall
Dunkley , Dusty , Heeney

which based on my calculations at the time was $ 7,087,593.80

Just checking some prices on here looks like they are all under $ 8 - 10 k lower.

10 onfield rookies = $ 2 million
Bench Rookies = $ 1 million

Also had written down

Defenders - 4
Midfielders - 9
Ruckman - 2
Forward - 8

Players to check 2021 starting prices.

Didn't really pay much attention to the Draft and haven't looked at the draw yet.
That looks like a good list. I have 8 of the 12 pencilled in, with the others still looking pretty solid picks to me.
 
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Preuss gets Gawn and Grundy in rnds 3 and 4 and NicNat in rnd 10. He doesn't make a lot of money early and his cash generation gets stalled before the byes, and he has the first bye so can't be slungshot. Gawn has a clean run at the start of the year and his price might not drop that much. I don't think Preuss is a bad pick in isolation but is it worth locking in a trade for a neutral result and how do you get to Gawn if he just keeps trucken?
Certainly not locked in for me. At this point they’re all placeholders until teams are named for round 1. Plans will change constantly and come round 1 half the rookies won’t be named, some mid priced players won’t be named. Some players will be injured pre season, I’ll get cold feet on someone and that player in red hot form I was keen on during the PS games will revert back to his true pumpkin form. I do think if I take Gawn I go without Grundy but I think Grundy has more value. Can’t have everyone unfortunately.
 
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KLo30

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It's my go to advice for everything, works a treat with elderly parents and in laws television and Foxtel also.
No response from covid 19, can't find the plug.
I must admit turning on and off / restarting the computer does work surprisingly often. I usually suggest that myself when others ask me for IT advice thinking I might know.
The technical terminology is "power cycling". haha
 
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I have made a team with no Preuss, traditional Gawn/Grundy combo.

Much depends on preseason, how they are tracking etc. Preuss would be the only mid price/ cheap option I would consider, otherwise I will just back in the usual Gawn/Grundy combo with Marshall in the fwds :-

View attachment 23742
I like marshal at F any number with Treacy R3 and feel they may start for me as i always like the swing set there.

Definitely two different camps on this forum regarding the worth of this swing set in general not just for next season but my opinion is it can save trades for short term injuries/restings that rucks seem to my mind susceptible to.
 

Darkie

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I like marshal at F any number with Treacy R3 and feel they may start for me as i always like the swing set there.

Definitely two different camps on this forum regarding the worth of this swing set in general not just for next season but my opinion is it can save trades for short term injuries/restings that rucks seem to my mind susceptible to.
Agree with this. With Mummy still on their list and Preuss not having much experience as #1 ruck at AFL level, it wouldn’t surprise me if Preuss was rested/if this was routed at times next year.
 
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