Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Darkie]

Green, Heppell, hatley.... who would be picking? Or can you start all 3 off them?

I definitely wouldn’t recommend starting all three. That price point is risky anywhere, but especially in the mids.

I think most people would be well-served by picking 0-1 of them. I have Heppell at the moment - he’s captain of his club (no JS issues), has an established scoring pattern at a level that will make a lot of cash, and was very durable until recently. Still only 28 too.

 

[Vicwood]

Green, Heppell, hatley.... who would be picking? Or can you start all 3 off them?

Very Risky.
will it allow allow your team to have premo at D4 and F4 why not.

Green, Heppell, hatley.... who would be picking? Or can you start all 3 off them?

Why Not. 12 keepers.

 

[Vicwood]

Personally I think Cripps has significantly more upside, and probably less downside (other than maybe game count).

Starting a Danger, Dunkley, Laird type in the mids is perfectly viable and a logical idea to explore if your structure looks better that way.

Neale v Danger over first 6 rounds.

Who has better averages. Last 4 years against teams playing first 6 rounds 2021 season.

One to challenge The Stats King (Connoisseur)

One I am considering Danger at M2 Against Neale M1.

Oliver is a Lock at M1 or M2.

 

[Vicwood]

In the RK Line. Lots of Value.
Pruess
Draper
DeKoning
Martin
Nank

Would it be crazy to run 3 in the RK line. Lots of cash generation on offer.? Would it be fair to say 85+ points average. Leave the Tracy lad floating in the forward line until round 6-7. And sweat it out every week hoping for no injuries.?

Solves the issue of stagnating rookies with 3-4 games cluttering your Bench early rounds.

Makes the other lines a whole lot stronger.

Thoughts.

 

[Darkie]

In the RK Line. Lots of Value.
Pruess
Draper
DeKoning
Martin
Nank

Would it be crazy to run 3 in the RK line. Lots of cash generation on offer.? Would it be fair to say 85+ points average. Leave the Tracy lad floating in the forward line until round 6-7. And sweat it out every week hoping for no injuries.?

Solves the issue of stagnating rookies with 3-4 games cluttering your Bench early rounds.

Makes the other lines a whole lot stronger.

Thoughts.

I think there is scope for a bit of creativity in the ruck line, but it’s high risk/high reward typically.

If you can identify a low mid priced ruck who is #1, I generally regard them as a lock (unless there are two good premo rucks that I like as starting picks).

Equally I probably wouldn’t try this manoeuvre this year in particular, because for me Grundy is an absolute lock, and one of my first picked.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I think there is scope for a bit of creativity in the ruck line, but it’s high risk/high reward typically.

If you can identify a low mid priced ruck who is #1, I generally regard them as a lock (unless there are two good premo rucks that I like as starting picks).

Equally I probably wouldn’t try this manoeuvre this year in particular, because for me Grundy is an absolute lock, and one of my first picked.

Agree, Grundy hopefully has upside. Preuss may be interesting, however, often these choice lead to picking a R/F who you wouldn't have in the side if you didn't pick the discount ruck player.

Not sure Marshall is the man at no.2 ruck to Ryder. Does anyone feel his role will change this year?

Ceglar was a disaster last year as a forward who I had as back up to Nankervis.

First six games for Saints include GWS, Eagles, Richmond and Port. Interested in any thoughts?

 

[Vicwood]

Agree, Grundy hopefully has upside. Preuss may be interesting, however, often these choice lead to picking a R/F who you wouldn't have in the side if you didn't pick the discount ruck player.

Not sure Marshall is the man at no.2 ruck to Ryder. Does anyone feel his role will change this year?

Ceglar was a disaster last year as a forward who I had as back up to Nankervis.

First six games for Saints include GWS, Eagles, Richmond and Port. Interested in any thoughts?

Even money Ryder misses games next year.

Anyone have Ryders TOG stats from last year. ?

The Saints are Light in the ruck department, good chance Ryders TOG is managed, due to longer quarters. Marshall should increase points this year with another preseason in the rear view mirror.

 

[manyproblems]

Is Zac Williams over rated?

If you look beyond his scoring potential then I think so. He's had countless soft tissue injuries and knocks over the past few years and had a persistent achillies issue all last year, including preseason.

 

[Darkie]

Agree, Grundy hopefully has upside. Preuss may be interesting, however, often these choice lead to picking a R/F who you wouldn't have in the side if you didn't pick the discount ruck player.

Not sure Marshall is the man at no.2 ruck to Ryder. Does anyone feel his role will change this year?

Ceglar was a disaster last year as a forward who I had as back up to Nankervis.

First six games for Saints include GWS, Eagles, Richmond and Port. Interested in any thoughts?

Personally I like Marshall as a standalone pick, but I agree with your point - I’ve had questionable results picking R-Fs as backup in the past.

One thing I like about Marshall is he didn’t seem to get that much ruck time, but still scored well.

His hitouts per game very nearly halved in 2020 (noting shorter quarters).

Interestingly Ryder will be 33 and I was expecting to see his TOG rose in 2020 due to shorter quarters. As it turns out that’s not the case at all, and it in fact fell from perhaps mid 80s to closer to 70 (Footywire on PC has this stat).

Does that mean Ryder is almost cooked and Marshall gets more TOG/ruck minutes in 2021? Or that Ryder can shoulder even more of the load and that detracts from Marshall?

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/P/Paddy_Ryder.html

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/R/Rowan_Marshall.html

Does anyone have a view on how fit Marshall was in 2020?

 

[manyproblems]

Green, Heppell, hatley.... who would be picking? Or can you start all 3 off them?

If all three are good picks then it could work, however it means your short on keepers and require an extra trade later in the year. So for that reason I'd like to run 0-2 depend on how things go, that way if one goes bad its an easy sideways.

I currently have Heppell and Hately.

Green's ceiling is the highest, his price is a fair bit higher and has the least development. He could break out and we may need to scramble to get him, but its a huge jump in a shorter preseason. To me its a no brainer he gets as much mid time as he can but with GWS you never know. Theres still Hopper, Taranto, Ward, Cogs (mid/fwd), Kelly (mid/wing) and DeBoar. Because of price and unknown I'm going to let this go pending preseason form and reports.

Bont has rented his time to Heppell and trained with him over Christmas, and Bont only hangs around the absolute top echelon, so for that reason I have belief in the Heppell pick. Job Security is perfect, said to Rutten he's confident he can get back to his best. I'd predict he goes 80-92, whether its HB or mid. Needs a clean preseason and good Marsh form.

Hately has shown just about every game hes got inside mid time (2020 preseason and 2019) that he can score darn well there. His competition are guys who haven't played a game and the underwhelming Jones. The reason he signed the contract was to get inside mid time. I think he can go 80 with a bit of upside. He was asked in an interview about would you pick yourself in SC and there wasn't much hesitation, he said yes. While he isnt a very proven pick, I believe in the pick based on what I saw when he got inside time last preseason (29disp 1 goal, 25disp 1 goal, lead gws for contested).

The 300k guys also have advantages over rookies such as JS, ceiling, no need for rookie roulette, and you can hold them til the byes no problem. But yes the disadvantage is being 1 shorter on keepers, and less options to sideways to. In terms of cash gen its hard to tell if its more or less than an m10/m11 rookie, depends on rookie quality.

 

[pizza safety]

If you look beyond his scoring potential then I think so. He's had countless soft tissue injuries and knocks over the past few years and had a persistent achillies issue all last year, including preseason.

The only thing I’d say on Williams is he has scored an average of 100 when playing midfield the last two seasons. Definitely an injury risk but not as likely to let us down when he’s playing as he was at GWS whenever he played defence with Whitfield in the team.

Do I love the pick ? No I don’t, but I’m very likely to select him based on his price and potential upside

 

[pizza safety]

If all three are good picks then it could work, however it means your short on keepers and require an extra trade later in the year. So for that reason I'd like to run 0-2 depend on how things go, that way if one goes bad its an easy sideways.

I currently have Heppell and Hately.

Green's ceiling is the highest, his price is a fair bit higher and has the least development. He could break out and we may need to scramble to get him, but its a huge jump in a shorter preseason. To me its a no brainer he gets as much mid time as he can but with GWS you never know. Theres still Hopper, Taranto, Ward, Cogs (mid/fwd), Kelly (mid/wing) and DeBoar. Because of price and unknown I'm going to let this go pending preseason form and reports.

Bont has rented his time to Heppell and trained with him over Christmas, and Bont only hangs around the absolute top echelon, so for that reason I have belief in the Heppell pick. Job Security is perfect, said to Rutten he's confident he can get back to his best. I'd predict he goes 80-92, whether its HB or mid. Needs a clean preseason and good Marsh form.

Hately has shown just about every game hes got inside mid time (2020 preseason and 2019) that he can score darn well there. His competition are guys who haven't played a game and the underwhelming Jones. The reason he signed the contract was to get inside mid time. I think he can go 80 with a bit of upside. He was asked in an interview about would you pick yourself in SC and there wasn't much hesitation, he said yes. While he isnt a very proven pick, I believe in the pick based on what I saw when he got inside time last preseason (29disp 1 goal, 25disp 1 goal, lead gws for contested).

The 300k guys also have advantages over rookies such as JS, ceiling, no need for rookie roulette, and you can hold them til the byes no problem. But yes the disadvantage is being 1 shorter on keepers, and less options to sideways to. In terms of cash gen its hard to tell if its more or less than an m10/m11 rookie, depends on rookie quality.

I don’t mind that argument for Hately, I didn’t originally notice how well he played in preseason. I was just saying earlier he’s very unlikely to avg 100 out of practically nowhere. I would like the pick more if he was 50K cheaper, at 310K it seems like too much of a risk. An average over 80 is certainly on the cards and I’d bank on it based on a good preseason but there’s an element of the unknown and a floor which would make me hesitate at that price. Could be swayed based on what happens but it’s no for now from me.

I do prefer Heppell because he’s more proven with big sample sizes of good play when healthy, whereas Hately’s potential is based on small sample sizes in preseason and banking on him taking a big jump in scoring early in his career. He will have better opportunity but he’s also untried as a mid in regular season games.

Heppell if fit will likely play a lot of mid time no matter what the press says. Rutten wasn’t explicitly saying Heppell would play half back but suggested it was an option he’d play some time there, but he also said a large number of players could play that role. Ultimately I think we need him in the middle as a leader and ball winner and I’d say a 90-105 avg is more likely if he’s fit and healthy, he averaged over 100 from 2014 up until he started suffering from a congenital foot issue (he actually had the same genetic condition on the other foot earlier in his career and had it effectively treated). Don’t worry about his work ethic, he has a great attitude, is very likeable and is a natural leader.

I’m a pessimistic Essendon supporter but even I think we’ll be better than some sections of the public and media are suggesting. Everybody wants Essendon to be as bad as possible so I’m not surprised, but we’re generally always mediocre rather than awful. A new coach and a better ability to learn the new system, a better culture, as well as a few less injuries and some games in front of our fans gives us a higher baseline than you’d be led to believe

 

[freowho]

I'm not seeing all the locks in the forward line that some are talking about. At the moment I just have Danger (good early draw and Jezza up forward) and Marshall (R/F bonus). Pending a good preseason and other rookies I'm leaning towards Ziebell, Ben Brown and Daniher.
So I can probably afford Gawn. Normally I would avoid massively priced players, and it often bites me. There is nothing in the draw to suggest his price drops enough to justify waiting for him. Preuss is a nice pick and if it wasn't for the shadow of Gawn and the key thrown away for Grundy I would normally lock him in. Too expensive for the bench?
Gawn vs Preuss feels like one of those decisions I'm bound to get wrong regardless of what I do!

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Personally I like Marshall as a standalone pick, but I agree with your point - I’ve had questionable results picking R-Fs as backup in the past.

One thing I like about Marshall is he didn’t seem to get that much ruck time, but still scored well.

His hitouts per game very nearly halved in 2020 (noting shorter quarters).

Interestingly Ryder will be 33 and I was expecting to see his TOG rose in 2020 due to shorter quarters. As it turns out that’s not the case at all, and it in fact fell from perhaps mid 80s to closer to 70 (Footywire on PC has this stat).

Does that mean Ryder is almost cooked and Marshall gets more TOG/ruck minutes in 2021? Or that Ryder can shoulder even more of the load and that detracts from Marshall?

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/P/Paddy_Ryder.html

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/R/Rowan_Marshall.html

Does anyone have a view on how fit Marshall was in 2020?

There is a couple of articles around on Rowan Marshall fitness 2020. Jan 2020 he set personal bests. There is article in April 2020 suggested he was training with his brother, not sure what to make of it, cannot read article.

Expect owners would be looking for upside if Ryder misses games. His lower times may reflect both age and and role, where he was rested when not playing ruck, compared to being forward.

Marshall had some of his biggest games in round 4/5 with no Ryder and some ave scores in 6 and 11.

 

[Eagling]

Very Risky.
will it allow allow your team to have premo at D4 and F4 why not.


Why Not. 12 keepers.

View attachment 24072

Cash generation is the most obvious issue at play here.

 

[Ironhawk]

First attempt at a team for 2021, probably the first of many iterations. If it's like 2020, maybe 1/3 of this team makes my final side. It is a bit rushed, so I am likely missing some players I really want.

DEF: Jake Lloyd, Luke Ryan, Jeremy Howe, Hayden Young, Denver Grainger-Barras, Lachlan Jones. [Jacob Wehr, Thomas Highmore]

MID: Jack Macrae, Tom Mitchell, Sam Walsh, Matt Rowell, Jackson Hately, Will Phillips, Luke Pedlar, Tom Powell. [Reef McInnes, Connor Downie, Alex Davies]

RUC: Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy. [Josh Treacy (F)]

FOR: Patrick Dangerfield (M), Josh Dunkley (M), Isaac Heeney, Braeden Campbell (M), Finlay Macrae (M), James Rowe. [Brayden Cook (M), Caleb Poulter (M)]

$154,800 remaining.

There is a bit of an issue with a lack of DPP in the mid field at this stage, but I doubt all these rookies get up Rd 1 anyway. I fully expect them to have to change around and that not be a problem. Thete is not a lot of DEF DPP options I like this year besides Laird (who I may well start), but I assume a rookie or two will show up at some point.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

In the RK Line. Lots of Value.
Pruess
Draper
DeKoning
Martin
Nank

Would it be crazy to run 3 in the RK line. Lots of cash generation on offer.? Would it be fair to say 85+ points average. Leave the Tracy lad floating in the forward line until round 6-7. And sweat it out every week hoping for no injuries.?

Solves the issue of stagnating rookies with 3-4 games cluttering your Bench early rounds.

Makes the other lines a whole lot stronger.

Thoughts.

Hello
I am considering both options:
Cost: $853,800

• Maximum Scoring
• Set and forget

Con

• Both have Round 14 Bye
• No Cash generation
• More Expensive $107,900

Vs

Cost: $745,900

• Cash generation
• Bye Rounds covered
• Save $107,900

Con

• Need to use a trade
• Loss of points against Gawn
• Expensive Bench

Note: I am using Nankervis as an example considering his scores in the last 3 finals (I expect his scoring to improve with longer quarters in 2021)

• Coming back from injury Rounds 14 - 17 and sharing the Ruck with Soldo
• Soldo injured in Round 17 (Out for 2021)
• Round 18 & Qualifying final shared Ruck with Chol

What are peoples thoughts on the two options?

 

[Darkie]

Hello
I am considering both options:
Cost: $853,800
View attachment 24119

• Maximum Scoring
• Set and forget

Con

• Both have Round 14 Bye
• No Cash generation
• More Expensive $107,900

Vs

Cost: $745,900
View attachment 24121

• Cash generation
• Bye Rounds covered
• Save $107,900

Con

• Need to use a trade
• Loss of points against Gawn
• Expensive Bench

Note: I am using Nankervis as an example considering his scores in the last 3 finals (I expect his scoring to improve with longer quarters in 2021)

• Coming back from injury Rounds 14 - 17 and sharing the Ruck with Soldo
• Soldo injured in Round 17 (Out for 2021)
• Round 18 & Qualifying final shared Ruck with Chol

View attachment 24120

What are peoples thoughts on the two options?

Very interesting - it looks like whether he shares with Chol(/someone else) might be a key swing factor?

Preuss is very expensive for a bench option in my view. If you thought he’s be one of the best cash cows, you could still do it, but you’re arguably leaving about 35ppg in extra cash sitting on the bench (vs a $120k option).

Alternately if you like the 3 man option and are happy to forgo Gawn, you could just pick your favorite of Nank/Preuss and have a Treacy/Marshall swing set to cover any STIs or resting a for whichever R2 you pick.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Very interesting - it looks like whether he shares with Chol(/someone else) might be a key swing factor?

Preuss is very expensive for a bench option in my view. If you thought he’s be one of the best cash cows, you could still do it, but you’re arguably leaving about 35ppg in extra cash sitting on the bench (vs a $120k option).

Alternately if you like the 3 man option and are happy to forgo Gawn, you could just pick your favorite of Nank/Preuss and have a Treacy/Marshall swing set to cover any STIs or resting a for whichever R2 you pick.

Grundy and gawn for me. I rather have 1 less premo mid and have Grundy/gawn in the ruck. A lot of uncertainty in the premo mids this year I feel.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

I'm sure I will likely end up with Grawn/Gruwn combo - but the slightest bit of injury or concern, they are gooooone. I felt sure leaving Gawn out for first round was the best move last season... until he got a 2 month rest till round 2? Ha.




And A Grawn option