Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions
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CRISTAPOL CROM - Early Thoughts
DEF:
Lloyd - locked and loaded. He never spent a large portion of a season in my team until last season. Do you know why? Because I waited for his price to drop - it never happened. Owning him is fun, watching him rack up points for cheap seagull things.
Laird - a no-brainer if he keeps playing in the guts... if this is the case, he is underpriced. If he goes back to defence, he is not a bad option but it would deter many coaches, me included.
Whitfield - at this stage he is in my team. Underpriced due to an injury score of 8 in round 3. A clear top 6 defender with a huge ceiling. If he fires early on, I don't want to miss out. If I don't start him, it will be the cheaper Tom Stewart. Whitfield is likely to cop a moderate price drop at some point.
Z. Williams - I am trying to decide whether he will be the bargain most of us expect, or whether it might be a POD move to avoid him. Pre-season will help me to make this decision.
Rookie watch - DGB, L. Jones, Gould, Roberton
MIDS:
Neale - I remember trading him to Zerrett on his bye in 2020 (a comfortable win, surprisingly), but watching Neale and hoping he would throw in a bad score was painful. He might spud it up once or twice, but who knows how long we must wait to get him at a discount. Just start him and prevent the headache.
Oliver - thanks to the SCS community, he has made it into my team. I see a lot of noise around Clarry on these forums. He is still young, and mighy have another gear in him. He is the man in that Melbourne midfield. I'll watch Petracca but won't start him due to the high chance we will pick him up significantly cheaper than his starting price.
T. Mitchell - Supercoach royalty. His down games are good enough and his good games you don't want to miss. Ignore him at your own peril.
Cripps - do I or don't I? That's the $50k question. We know what he is capable of and it's hard to ignore. I've got a couple of months to think about it. If it's not him, it will probably be Taylor Adams.
Rowell - sometimes you just get a feeling. This kid will be the GOAT. I am very confident of a 100 average, but wouldn't be surprised to see him at 110. He lives and breathes football and his passion is obvious.
Hately - one of 3 midpricers I am allowing myself. This one feels good. I love it when a good player is guaranteed midfield minutes in a weaker team. He could be gold, and I'm willing to take the risk. Hoping for a 90+ average.
Rookie watch - Powell, W. Phillips, McInnes
RUCK:
Gawn - at this stage he is in my team over Grundy. We all know what he is capable of and he has a good early draw. Strong captain option.
Preuss - midpricer #2. I've been waiting for Preuss to become a number 1 ruckman. Now he has landed at GWS, I would be surprised if he doesn't play at least 18 games and average 80+. A perfect stepping stone.
Rookie watch - Treacy locked and loaded
FWD:
Danger - has been in my team since round 1, 2015 and I have no reason to sack the bloke now. My favourite player to watch and with a good early fixture.
R. Marshall - I do feel we will be able to get him cheaper, but with Preuss potentially swapping out for Mumford a few times, I am willing to pay slightly extra for a backup plan. A strong top 6 contender.
Jez Cameron - my #3 midpricer and probably most POD selection. Good early fixture, fresh start at a new club with elite delivery, I would not be surprised to see him kick 20 goals and average 100+ in his first 7 games. I get a feeling.
Rookie watch - at this stage my forward line feels light on premiums/midpricers, but I feel there will be plenty of rookies who can fill spots. In rough order: Cockatoo, Perkins, J. Rowe, F. Macrae, B. Cook
DEF:
Lloyd - locked and loaded. He never spent a large portion of a season in my team until last season. Do you know why? Because I waited for his price to drop - it never happened. Owning him is fun, watching him rack up points for cheap seagull things.
Laird - a no-brainer if he keeps playing in the guts... if this is the case, he is underpriced. If he goes back to defence, he is not a bad option but it would deter many coaches, me included.
Whitfield - at this stage he is in my team. Underpriced due to an injury score of 8 in round 3. A clear top 6 defender with a huge ceiling. If he fires early on, I don't want to miss out. If I don't start him, it will be the cheaper Tom Stewart. Whitfield is likely to cop a moderate price drop at some point.
Z. Williams - I am trying to decide whether he will be the bargain most of us expect, or whether it might be a POD move to avoid him. Pre-season will help me to make this decision.
Rookie watch - DGB, L. Jones, Gould, Roberton
MIDS:
Neale - I remember trading him to Zerrett on his bye in 2020 (a comfortable win, surprisingly), but watching Neale and hoping he would throw in a bad score was painful. He might spud it up once or twice, but who knows how long we must wait to get him at a discount. Just start him and prevent the headache.
Oliver - thanks to the SCS community, he has made it into my team. I see a lot of noise around Clarry on these forums. He is still young, and mighy have another gear in him. He is the man in that Melbourne midfield. I'll watch Petracca but won't start him due to the high chance we will pick him up significantly cheaper than his starting price.
T. Mitchell - Supercoach royalty. His down games are good enough and his good games you don't want to miss. Ignore him at your own peril.
Cripps - do I or don't I? That's the $50k question. We know what he is capable of and it's hard to ignore. I've got a couple of months to think about it. If it's not him, it will probably be Taylor Adams.
Rowell - sometimes you just get a feeling. This kid will be the GOAT. I am very confident of a 100 average, but wouldn't be surprised to see him at 110. He lives and breathes football and his passion is obvious.
Hately - one of 3 midpricers I am allowing myself. This one feels good. I love it when a good player is guaranteed midfield minutes in a weaker team. He could be gold, and I'm willing to take the risk. Hoping for a 90+ average.
Rookie watch - Powell, W. Phillips, McInnes
RUCK:
Gawn - at this stage he is in my team over Grundy. We all know what he is capable of and he has a good early draw. Strong captain option.
Preuss - midpricer #2. I've been waiting for Preuss to become a number 1 ruckman. Now he has landed at GWS, I would be surprised if he doesn't play at least 18 games and average 80+. A perfect stepping stone.
Rookie watch - Treacy locked and loaded
FWD:
Danger - has been in my team since round 1, 2015 and I have no reason to sack the bloke now. My favourite player to watch and with a good early fixture.
R. Marshall - I do feel we will be able to get him cheaper, but with Preuss potentially swapping out for Mumford a few times, I am willing to pay slightly extra for a backup plan. A strong top 6 contender.
Jez Cameron - my #3 midpricer and probably most POD selection. Good early fixture, fresh start at a new club with elite delivery, I would not be surprised to see him kick 20 goals and average 100+ in his first 7 games. I get a feeling.
Rookie watch - at this stage my forward line feels light on premiums/midpricers, but I feel there will be plenty of rookies who can fill spots. In rough order: Cockatoo, Perkins, J. Rowe, F. Macrae, B. Cook
I’m not an Eagles expert, but he looks like a bit of a “what you see is what you get” type pick to me. Pretty durable, a good scorer but not an elite scorer, priced at around the best he’s delivered/perhaps his current level.
For me he’s the type of player I’d be more inclined to upgrade into if he dropped in price due to a concussion - not a must have, but a good solid citizen, so a discount is the main appeal if/when it presents.
For me he’s the type of player I’d be more inclined to upgrade into if he dropped in price due to a concussion - not a must have, but a good solid citizen, so a discount is the main appeal if/when it presents.
This sums it up quite well.
Gaff is very durable/ huge tank & could be a decent M7/M8 for the season but hasn't got a huge ceiling in my opinion.
The other key factor is that other WCE mids like Yeo, Redden, Shuey missed many games last year - I recall the saints game when Kelly & Gaff were literally the only 2 first choice mids that were fit so those 2 played almost the whole game in the centre. With our full midfield compliment back I feel Gaff's scoring will be reduced slightly so in my view he is a possible upgrade option rather than a starter.
Gaff is very durable/ huge tank & could be a decent M7/M8 for the season but hasn't got a huge ceiling in my opinion.
The other key factor is that other WCE mids like Yeo, Redden, Shuey missed many games last year - I recall the saints game when Kelly & Gaff were literally the only 2 first choice mids that were fit so those 2 played almost the whole game in the centre. With our full midfield compliment back I feel Gaff's scoring will be reduced slightly so in my view he is a possible upgrade option rather than a starter.
Every decent side will have him, he is a lock to be a top 3 defender if he remains fit - so the question is do you gamble that he starts off slow so can get him cheaper & blow a trade or just start him, pay the high price & save a trade?
Looking at last year's stats, he never scored under 100 after round 1 :-
Hard to ignore that sort of consistency which we all want from our starting picks.
Looking at last year's stats, he never scored under 100 after round 1 :-
Hard to ignore that sort of consistency which we all want from our starting picks.
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When reviewing my team for nth time already I was surprised by the number of new names in the top 25 mids. So after digging a bit deeper I am now sure averages for the mids in the 2020 season need to be considered with a fair dose of caution based on previous years results.
To me in 2018 only two players “surprised” with their end of season average and they were both at the lower end of the top 25. They were S Higgins who jumped from a previous season 92 to 103 with his best ever previous season being 95. L Hunter jumped from a previous season 82 to 102 and his previous best was 95 two years before that.
In 2019 that jumped to five surprise results but again most were at the lower end of the 25. The only top 10 surprise was Dunkley who jumped to 116 with his best ever previous ave being 95.
The others were Telly who in his second season went from 93 to 103. Cunnington went to 102 from 96 and Taranto 102 from 89. Prestia returned to something close to his best with 101 which he had also ave in 2015 with 106 being his highest in 2014. TBH not sure Telly was a real surprise but he did jump 10 points.
But it went nuts last year with what I consider 14 better than expected results including four in the top 10. Whether it was just one of those years or the short quarters I won’t speculate.
The top 10 additions were
Steele 122 after previous best 94
Petracca 117 after previous best 81
Zerrett 116 after not been seen since 111 four years before in 2016
Hunter 115 after his 102 in 2018
Then comes
Lyons 112 previous best 98
Dependlebury a return to form with 110, his best in four years since 119 in 2016
Menegola 107 with previous best 100
Rocky 106 his best since 111 in 2016
Parker 106 also his best since 111 in 2016
Liber 106 his best since 110 in 2014
Miller 105 after a previous best of 88
Greenwood 105 after a previous best of 85
Anderson 104 previous best 84
Wines 104 previous best 100 2014
Some may say Pendlebury and Zerrett are not surprise results. But Pendles, since his 119 in 2016 had gone 107, 104 and 104 - a clear downward direction. Zerrett had gone 109 100 and 106 before his 116 in 2020.
For mine that that is a lot of better than expected results. Whether most of these guys can repeat the dose in 2021 remain to be seen. For the record I currently have none of the 14 from 2020 in my current team but that is no recommendation one way or the other.
To me in 2018 only two players “surprised” with their end of season average and they were both at the lower end of the top 25. They were S Higgins who jumped from a previous season 92 to 103 with his best ever previous season being 95. L Hunter jumped from a previous season 82 to 102 and his previous best was 95 two years before that.
In 2019 that jumped to five surprise results but again most were at the lower end of the 25. The only top 10 surprise was Dunkley who jumped to 116 with his best ever previous ave being 95.
The others were Telly who in his second season went from 93 to 103. Cunnington went to 102 from 96 and Taranto 102 from 89. Prestia returned to something close to his best with 101 which he had also ave in 2015 with 106 being his highest in 2014. TBH not sure Telly was a real surprise but he did jump 10 points.
But it went nuts last year with what I consider 14 better than expected results including four in the top 10. Whether it was just one of those years or the short quarters I won’t speculate.
The top 10 additions were
Steele 122 after previous best 94
Petracca 117 after previous best 81
Zerrett 116 after not been seen since 111 four years before in 2016
Hunter 115 after his 102 in 2018
Then comes
Lyons 112 previous best 98
Dependlebury a return to form with 110, his best in four years since 119 in 2016
Menegola 107 with previous best 100
Rocky 106 his best since 111 in 2016
Parker 106 also his best since 111 in 2016
Liber 106 his best since 110 in 2014
Miller 105 after a previous best of 88
Greenwood 105 after a previous best of 85
Anderson 104 previous best 84
Wines 104 previous best 100 2014
Some may say Pendlebury and Zerrett are not surprise results. But Pendles, since his 119 in 2016 had gone 107, 104 and 104 - a clear downward direction. Zerrett had gone 109 100 and 106 before his 116 in 2020.
For mine that that is a lot of better than expected results. Whether most of these guys can repeat the dose in 2021 remain to be seen. For the record I currently have none of the 14 from 2020 in my current team but that is no recommendation one way or the other.
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Perhaps it can be explained by the fact that whilst quantity of disposals/marks/tackles/goals etc were all down on previous years purely due to reduced quarters, games were still awarded 3300 SC points as per previous years. This means scoring acts received greater weighting than in previous years. Given that contested possessions and intercepts are the highest scoring categories, it's no wonder we saw an increase in midfielders and half back flankers crack the 100 barrier.
Very interesting stats, thanks for sharing.
This adds some substance to a sense I’ve had for a while, that last season was an aberration to be viewed with some suspicion.
For what it’s worth I have none of those 14 either. If I had to pick one, it would be a durable name with some premium history, like Parker or Zerrett - but even those two I set aside pretty quickly.
This adds some substance to a sense I’ve had for a while, that last season was an aberration to be viewed with some suspicion.
For what it’s worth I have none of those 14 either. If I had to pick one, it would be a durable name with some premium history, like Parker or Zerrett - but even those two I set aside pretty quickly.
A very good point you make there. I'm currently working on my player rankings for sc draft and it's a balancing act for many players in trying to determine what part of their scoring increase from 2019 to 2020 was driven by their development (age, years in the game, better role, more opportunity) and what part was driven by the shortened quarters.
From memory, due to the shorter quarters, the scaling at the end of all quarters was significant, but it also wasn't equal. The higher scorers in each game got more of the scaling benefit.
From memory, due to the shorter quarters, the scaling at the end of all quarters was significant, but it also wasn't equal. The higher scorers in each game got more of the scaling benefit.
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This will be the balance this year. Identifying players who may have received a bump from shorter quarters vs players who may have upside, yet balanced against confidence that the player will end up top 10 in their line.
Lloyd - will be a top 3 player based on history, can he do better? if he is the same, then picking a player with upside is a better strategy. If you pick the wrong player who lets say does same as 2020 as does Lloyd, then you may need to trade if you went too cheap and player not top 10.
He hurt last year because he exceeded his 2019 levels. many felt that pain including me, however, the risk is including a player based on that. 2021 resets and we reevaluate.
Putting this thought into action, Lloyd is a luxury inclusion, has downside risk of normal quarter length, can only hurt you if he does better or you make a poor replacement choice. Therefore if I don't have Lloyd, the player I choose has to be low risk, not a 400k potential better player. Howe, Laird, Stewart come to mind. All likely top 10. Williams likely in my side, however, he is in whether I go Lloyd or not.
re Adams, will be him or a Rowell I expect, as I cannot see a 4th midfield I love outside of Neale, Olivier and Mitchell at this stage. Macrae normally there, will watch pre season, don't trust Bevo though. Potentially a Heppell at 5th mid.
Early stages and don't have SC team picker (using values I think are right from posts above), just some strategy thoughts. My focus remains GnR where possible, league orientated.
Rucks currently Gawn and Preuss. Need confidence issues for Grundy have been fixed, expect he could do better and Gawn could be worse or same, however, Gawn a more legit Capt option. Preuss becomes Grundy if value/rookies become more evident allowing a Heppell/Ziebell/Daniher to become someone cheaper.
Currently have Williams D4, Heppell M5, Preuss R2, Daniher/Ziebell F4 and 5 under this structure, 123k rookies and $70k in cash.
premiums Howe, Laid Stewart, Neale, Oliver, Mitchell, Adams, Gawn, Danger, Marshall, Dunkley.
Lloyd - will be a top 3 player based on history, can he do better? if he is the same, then picking a player with upside is a better strategy. If you pick the wrong player who lets say does same as 2020 as does Lloyd, then you may need to trade if you went too cheap and player not top 10.
He hurt last year because he exceeded his 2019 levels. many felt that pain including me, however, the risk is including a player based on that. 2021 resets and we reevaluate.
Putting this thought into action, Lloyd is a luxury inclusion, has downside risk of normal quarter length, can only hurt you if he does better or you make a poor replacement choice. Therefore if I don't have Lloyd, the player I choose has to be low risk, not a 400k potential better player. Howe, Laird, Stewart come to mind. All likely top 10. Williams likely in my side, however, he is in whether I go Lloyd or not.
re Adams, will be him or a Rowell I expect, as I cannot see a 4th midfield I love outside of Neale, Olivier and Mitchell at this stage. Macrae normally there, will watch pre season, don't trust Bevo though. Potentially a Heppell at 5th mid.
Early stages and don't have SC team picker (using values I think are right from posts above), just some strategy thoughts. My focus remains GnR where possible, league orientated.
Rucks currently Gawn and Preuss. Need confidence issues for Grundy have been fixed, expect he could do better and Gawn could be worse or same, however, Gawn a more legit Capt option. Preuss becomes Grundy if value/rookies become more evident allowing a Heppell/Ziebell/Daniher to become someone cheaper.
Currently have Williams D4, Heppell M5, Preuss R2, Daniher/Ziebell F4 and 5 under this structure, 123k rookies and $70k in cash.
premiums Howe, Laid Stewart, Neale, Oliver, Mitchell, Adams, Gawn, Danger, Marshall, Dunkley.