Position 2022: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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I think if we are being honest apart from Lloyd there are question marks on everyone else around that price range, whether that's a new coach/club/role/injury history/potential 1 year wonder.
At this stage I've got two spots left and I've got four guys in the running; Short, Ridley, Ryan and Dawson. That's probably the order that I'm ranking them at the moment, Ryan may well be an upgrade target but he's firmly on the watchlist.
At this stage I've got two spots left and I've got four guys in the running; Short, Ridley, Ryan and Dawson. That's probably the order that I'm ranking them at the moment, Ryan may well be an upgrade target but he's firmly on the watchlist.
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As things stand, Freo are spoilt for talls down back with a full compliment of fit personnel in Hamling, Pearce and Cox. Meaning very little chance Ryan will be required to play tall. However, all 3 of those blokes have a checkered injury history, so how long that remains the case is the 540k question.
Bit of mystery around the make up of Freo's back 6 or 7 this year. I reckon Young and Clark probably present the biggest threat to Ryan's scoring as they will probably be the key distributors. Having said that, Ryan should be freed up to play that lucrative interceptor role.
Just feels like a bit too much uncertainty around him as a selection to start the season. I reckon at his price point, you can wait and see how freo structure up and if Hamling and Pearce can remain fit early.
Bit of mystery around the make up of Freo's back 6 or 7 this year. I reckon Young and Clark probably present the biggest threat to Ryan's scoring as they will probably be the key distributors. Having said that, Ryan should be freed up to play that lucrative interceptor role.
Just feels like a bit too much uncertainty around him as a selection to start the season. I reckon at his price point, you can wait and see how freo structure up and if Hamling and Pearce can remain fit early.
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Other alternatives in and around his price bracket have a higher ceiling and thanks to his consistency his price should remain steady around the mid to high 400 to the low 500 range this season. Richmond are not noted for over possessing the ball nor heavily reliant on one player which reduces the possibility of matches around the 30+ disposal range to compensate for his low intercept marks. The likes of Vlatsuin, Rioli, etc could benefit more than Short from the absence of Houli.
I've definitely mentioned and considered but there's a lot of question marks on him.
His scoring has never been consistent, there's a couple of new(ish) guys that could steal some touches, not sure if he plays tall or small and honestly not sure which I prefer, was at his best in 2020 as a tall and at his best as a smaller defender last year.
The reality is that I don't see him as a huge threat to push 110+ which means you can basically watch him for 6 weeks and pay a similar price. I think his likely landing point is probably somewhere between LY and 2020 when he was doing everything in their defense as opposed to sharing parts of it based on positioning.
Harder part is there are a couple of guys with higher upside, a couple of guys with bigger value and a couple of guys that are just safer in his price group/below and only a few slots to pick so he just kind of falls out because of that.
Definitely on the radar though, if his role looks extra juicy (kick-ins and intercept role) then he rockets up the list.
His scoring has never been consistent, there's a couple of new(ish) guys that could steal some touches, not sure if he plays tall or small and honestly not sure which I prefer, was at his best in 2020 as a tall and at his best as a smaller defender last year.
The reality is that I don't see him as a huge threat to push 110+ which means you can basically watch him for 6 weeks and pay a similar price. I think his likely landing point is probably somewhere between LY and 2020 when he was doing everything in their defense as opposed to sharing parts of it based on positioning.
Harder part is there are a couple of guys with higher upside, a couple of guys with bigger value and a couple of guys that are just safer in his price group/below and only a few slots to pick so he just kind of falls out because of that.
Definitely on the radar though, if his role looks extra juicy (kick-ins and intercept role) then he rockets up the list.
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I would temper the 105 expectations for Short to 100-103. Lloyd, Hall, Whitfield, Ridley are all capable and more probable of getting off to fast starts and outperforming their starting price whereas I can foresee Short starting with an average between the low to mid nineties over the first 4-7 weeks. He would be a prime candidate to trade into early using a mid pricer and possibly a trade boost if needed.
It's a good question.
Higher ceiling for me is a short list: (I wouldn't argue for several of these but worth mentioning).
Lloyd - Proven
Hall - LY as a defender
Stewart - Intercept work on top of everything Short does.
Crisp - Midfield role could lead to bigger scoring.
Dawson - Role change could be huge.
Ridley - Same as Stewart
Ryan - Same as Stewart/Ridley.
Sicily - Proven but always messed it up in past.
Whitfield - Proven
Value I guess all the above technically if they hit that higher ceiling would be more or equally underpriced.
Siciliy and Whitfield probably the only clear better value guys if all 3 were to hit 105.
Others:
Williams/Newman/Saad - Think all have similar potential but probably all kill each other.
Witherden/Sinclair/Houston/Moore/Cumming/Hind/Daniel/Dale/Salem/May/Perryman/Maynard - I think this entire group has 100-105 potential in the right role, with the right breaks going their way, all cheaper than Short.
I think the real selling point on Short is excellent durability and excellent role/output certainty. Lloyd is probably the only guy across all these lists that has a similar case for he will score somewhere around his starting price and play 21 games, Crisp is strong on the 2nd part but his scoring a bit more variable and coming off a career high.
Short would be right near the top of my list of guys that I think scores 95+ and plays 22 games across all positions. I think that Rioli will sabotage fairly similarly to Houli though once he works it out so I'm not 100 on the non-Houli stats this year holding up. They definitely could though and it's a couple of seasons of evidence now.
Higher ceiling for me is a short list: (I wouldn't argue for several of these but worth mentioning).
Lloyd - Proven
Hall - LY as a defender
Stewart - Intercept work on top of everything Short does.
Crisp - Midfield role could lead to bigger scoring.
Dawson - Role change could be huge.
Ridley - Same as Stewart
Ryan - Same as Stewart/Ridley.
Sicily - Proven but always messed it up in past.
Whitfield - Proven
Value I guess all the above technically if they hit that higher ceiling would be more or equally underpriced.
Siciliy and Whitfield probably the only clear better value guys if all 3 were to hit 105.
Others:
Williams/Newman/Saad - Think all have similar potential but probably all kill each other.
Witherden/Sinclair/Houston/Moore/Cumming/Hind/Daniel/Dale/Salem/May/Perryman/Maynard - I think this entire group has 100-105 potential in the right role, with the right breaks going their way, all cheaper than Short.
I think the real selling point on Short is excellent durability and excellent role/output certainty. Lloyd is probably the only guy across all these lists that has a similar case for he will score somewhere around his starting price and play 21 games, Crisp is strong on the 2nd part but his scoring a bit more variable and coming off a career high.
Short would be right near the top of my list of guys that I think scores 95+ and plays 22 games across all positions. I think that Rioli will sabotage fairly similarly to Houli though once he works it out so I'm not 100 on the non-Houli stats this year holding up. They definitely could though and it's a couple of seasons of evidence now.
Thanks for the replies.
I understand Lloyd is reliable but it appears to me that people have him pegged as a 110+ player that had a down year last year. He averaged 108 and I can't see why that goes back up and possibly see it slowly declining again. New kick in rules and Sydney are a better team so the ball spent less time in the backline. Was Dawson stealing his points or just the second person in the pecking order?
Ridley had massive scores at the start of the year because of sole possession of the kick in duties and an unusually high number of kick ins. Same as Ziebell. He then had to share as the year went on. Does this change?
The only two players I see with an upside story are Dawson on a bigger ground and some inside work, and Short who goes from 2nd to 1st fiddle.
I can see the value in Whitfield and Sicily if they stay fit.
I can't see anyone separating themselves significantly from the pack.
I understand Lloyd is reliable but it appears to me that people have him pegged as a 110+ player that had a down year last year. He averaged 108 and I can't see why that goes back up and possibly see it slowly declining again. New kick in rules and Sydney are a better team so the ball spent less time in the backline. Was Dawson stealing his points or just the second person in the pecking order?
Ridley had massive scores at the start of the year because of sole possession of the kick in duties and an unusually high number of kick ins. Same as Ziebell. He then had to share as the year went on. Does this change?
The only two players I see with an upside story are Dawson on a bigger ground and some inside work, and Short who goes from 2nd to 1st fiddle.
I can see the value in Whitfield and Sicily if they stay fit.
I can't see anyone separating themselves significantly from the pack.
Lloyd had an interrupted preseason last year, averaged 110 over the last 11 games when Dawson shifted up the ground to a genuine attacking wing role.
He's averaged 109, 112, 122 and 108 over the last 4 seasons, he's been super durable and super consistent. He definitely could drop off but he's got to drop off probably 10+ points to not be a keeper and it's hard to argue he doesn't have a case for scoring higher either.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised by 104 or 115 but I'd place my bets inside that range if you put the gun to my head, which given a fair bit of uncertainty across the other spots is a really nice thing to be able to back.
Losing Dawson takes away one of our few penetrating kicks so I can see a bit slower ball movement. It's also worth noting that Sydney's season couldn't have been much more difficult last year with basically being on the road for the entire thing so realistically his efforts were outstanding given that.
Also not sold on Sydney backing up this year. Mills struggling to be fit for round one, who was our best player last year, losing Dawson, Hickey had a freakish year that's hard to see him backing up, Kennedy is another year older. I'm not expecting to fall off a cliff but when you lose the best winger in the league and your best midfielder is at best limping to round 1 I don't think it's a strong cause for optimism that the team will be surprisingly strong. I want to be wrong but last year was a bit of a shock and teams that do that often struggle to back it up, especially when it's on the back of a pretty golden injury run.
He's averaged 109, 112, 122 and 108 over the last 4 seasons, he's been super durable and super consistent. He definitely could drop off but he's got to drop off probably 10+ points to not be a keeper and it's hard to argue he doesn't have a case for scoring higher either.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised by 104 or 115 but I'd place my bets inside that range if you put the gun to my head, which given a fair bit of uncertainty across the other spots is a really nice thing to be able to back.
Losing Dawson takes away one of our few penetrating kicks so I can see a bit slower ball movement. It's also worth noting that Sydney's season couldn't have been much more difficult last year with basically being on the road for the entire thing so realistically his efforts were outstanding given that.
Also not sold on Sydney backing up this year. Mills struggling to be fit for round one, who was our best player last year, losing Dawson, Hickey had a freakish year that's hard to see him backing up, Kennedy is another year older. I'm not expecting to fall off a cliff but when you lose the best winger in the league and your best midfielder is at best limping to round 1 I don't think it's a strong cause for optimism that the team will be surprisingly strong. I want to be wrong but last year was a bit of a shock and teams that do that often struggle to back it up, especially when it's on the back of a pretty golden injury run.
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Short has the lowest risk upside of any defender. In isolation he is a fantastic pick. In the context of where I want my team to be (ultimate premo) he’s borderline selectable.
Personally, I’ve got Seagull, Hall, Whitfield, Ridley, and Stewart (not starting) all with demonstrably higher ceilings. I’m not sure I want to take the Whitfield injury risk on board. Short is in the same bracket as Dawson and Maynard of role change upside for me. 160 preseason scores notwithstanding, thanks Santoz!
Thanks to everyone for their comments below.
And @conniosseur
Personally, I’ve got Seagull, Hall, Whitfield, Ridley, and Stewart (not starting) all with demonstrably higher ceilings. I’m not sure I want to take the Whitfield injury risk on board. Short is in the same bracket as Dawson and Maynard of role change upside for me. 160 preseason scores notwithstanding, thanks Santoz!
Thanks to everyone for their comments below.
Until he pumps out another 160 in the pre-season matches & everyone finds a way to squeeze him in Rd 1 again 