@wogitalia - thoughts on Hewett? Very tempted if playing midfield as expected at the blues
Position 2022: Defender Discussion
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Is Pendlebury going to be one of those players who in his new role will get a D/M at Rd 6. If he can still score okay in his new role could be an interesting target. Last season was his first in 14 when he did not score over 100. A number of mids have become successful quarterbacks in their old age in the past.
100% role dependent and given his tagging ability even that's going to be really hard to get a read on as he's an 80s type tagging and he's a 105 type as a ball winning midfielder.
He's a lot better than most people will realise, has been so incredibly selfless at Sydney but there's a hell of a lot of Jarryd Lyons about him. He finds the ball and uses it very well and is a beast in the contest.
For mine he's clearly their 2nd best inside midfielder behind a health Cripps and he's their best if Cripps is the walking dead version of the last two years so he should be in their first midfield group or the main man in their second depending whether they go a more inside or outside focus. For mine it should be Cripps and Walsh and then either Cerra or Hewett, those two are considerably better than anyone else they have. I dare say they might lean Cerra just because he's a better kick and neither Walsh or Cripps are good in that area. Hewett is a good safe kicker but Cerra is a game changing kick. Either way he should get a lot of midfield burn and if they go Cerra on the wing that would really open things up.
It does depend what they saw though, have they moneyballed a guy being used in negative roles knowing his skillset when set loose or have they targeted him to play those negative roles?
Averaged 88 a couple of years back when developing into a genuine midfielder before he hurt his back and ended up in defensive roles, last year he played HB until about round 15, from that point onward he averaged 95 in games a mid from that point forward, that includes a failed tag attempt on Steele as well that was a bad score.
He's absolutely on my radar but will be a hard guy to pick given he really does need to hit 100+ from where he's at and there's a hell of a lot of unknown that I can't see 2 preseason games answering given they wont be tagging there. Curnow could also be used as the tagger if they go that path but, again, we wont know that.
I'd say that Sicily at 50k is probably a safer bet at this point in time.
If he plays as a ball winning mid with great minutes there then I could quickly sing another tune. Lyons for comparison really took a few years to get out of the 90s.
If you've got the defender threshold lower than me then he becomes a lot more viable, I'm currently at the 102.5-105 range as my D6 cutoff target which is probably on the higher end of peoples' projections.
He's a lot better than most people will realise, has been so incredibly selfless at Sydney but there's a hell of a lot of Jarryd Lyons about him. He finds the ball and uses it very well and is a beast in the contest.
For mine he's clearly their 2nd best inside midfielder behind a health Cripps and he's their best if Cripps is the walking dead version of the last two years so he should be in their first midfield group or the main man in their second depending whether they go a more inside or outside focus. For mine it should be Cripps and Walsh and then either Cerra or Hewett, those two are considerably better than anyone else they have. I dare say they might lean Cerra just because he's a better kick and neither Walsh or Cripps are good in that area. Hewett is a good safe kicker but Cerra is a game changing kick. Either way he should get a lot of midfield burn and if they go Cerra on the wing that would really open things up.
It does depend what they saw though, have they moneyballed a guy being used in negative roles knowing his skillset when set loose or have they targeted him to play those negative roles?
Averaged 88 a couple of years back when developing into a genuine midfielder before he hurt his back and ended up in defensive roles, last year he played HB until about round 15, from that point onward he averaged 95 in games a mid from that point forward, that includes a failed tag attempt on Steele as well that was a bad score.
He's absolutely on my radar but will be a hard guy to pick given he really does need to hit 100+ from where he's at and there's a hell of a lot of unknown that I can't see 2 preseason games answering given they wont be tagging there. Curnow could also be used as the tagger if they go that path but, again, we wont know that.
I'd say that Sicily at 50k is probably a safer bet at this point in time.
If he plays as a ball winning mid with great minutes there then I could quickly sing another tune. Lyons for comparison really took a few years to get out of the 90s.
If you've got the defender threshold lower than me then he becomes a lot more viable, I'm currently at the 102.5-105 range as my D6 cutoff target which is probably on the higher end of peoples' projections.
He was terrible at it last time around which does concern me. He does have all the skills you'd expect to lead to good production from the role, like a better Kade Simpson. Last time he struggled because he lost all the contested football that drove his scoring. To be fair, when I say he was terrible that's also in comparison to his own standard of scoring, from looking it up he was still a ~100ppg guy so no reason he couldn't do that again.
Not a starting pick candidate though but he's definitely someone to factor into your calculations for where you think the premium threshold will be and if you think he really guns it, in the 105+ range then you'd definitely want to factor the upgrade.
He's basically better at everything than Heppell who put up 99 off no real preseason last year.
Not a starting pick candidate though but he's definitely someone to factor into your calculations for where you think the premium threshold will be and if you think he really guns it, in the 105+ range then you'd definitely want to factor the upgrade.
He's basically better at everything than Heppell who put up 99 off no real preseason last year.
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The trouble with all our inside mid options is they are slow. Cripps is slow, which we can manage if he is actually fit. Last year he couldn't chase to save himself. Kennedy finished the year well, but is slow and likely benefitted from the problems of others. Setterfield's best position is inside mid, but again slow. Think he would have been delisted if not contracted. Curnow also not fast, but at least has the elite endurance. He probably gets pushed out of the mid rotations, other than the odd targetted role.
Dow and Williams are/were played in the mids simply because they have a burst of speed. Obviously neither went close to establishing themselves.
If Hewett is quicker than those mentioned in the first paragraph, he has a huge opportunity. I've only watched the Swans sporadically and like most have an appreciation of Hewett's effort and team-oriented play. My question is, does he have the speed to hold down a permanent role over those other guys?
He only played two games in 2020 before a foot injury ended his season. But he showed fantasy footy coaches what he could deliver. In round one against the Swans, he scored 96 in SuperCoach and 70 AFLFantasy (87 Adjusted). It’s limited data, but it was tracking with his scoring of the previous season. At the start of 2019, Milera came out of the blocks flying. He scored off the half-back of 87, 95, 96 & 86 in AFLFantasy, while in SuperCoach, he scored 82, 105, 109 & 86. Not a bad first four rounds. However, a dislocated shoulder sidelined him for the next five weeks.
Upon his return, he delivered a further six scores above 80, including a ton in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and three scores 96+ including a 114 in SuperCoach. Amazing, certainly not. But we aren’t paying for him to be a top 6-10 defender this year. His job is to be a stepping stone and is closer to the cash cow price range.
Further proof that Milera has been giving us these scoring glimpses for years is to look at his 2018 stats. Over the final eleven rounds of the year, he dipped his scoring beneath 70 just once across the formats. While in SuperCoach, he posted three tons, three additional scores over 90 and averaged 89 from rounds 12-23. In the same period, AFLFantasy/DreamTeam Wayne posted 2 tons and averaged 82.
If you combined his last nine games of 2018 and the first four of 2019, he averaged 87 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 93 in SuperCoach.
Upon his return, he delivered a further six scores above 80, including a ton in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and three scores 96+ including a 114 in SuperCoach. Amazing, certainly not. But we aren’t paying for him to be a top 6-10 defender this year. His job is to be a stepping stone and is closer to the cash cow price range.
Further proof that Milera has been giving us these scoring glimpses for years is to look at his 2018 stats. Over the final eleven rounds of the year, he dipped his scoring beneath 70 just once across the formats. While in SuperCoach, he posted three tons, three additional scores over 90 and averaged 89 from rounds 12-23. In the same period, AFLFantasy/DreamTeam Wayne posted 2 tons and averaged 82.
If you combined his last nine games of 2018 and the first four of 2019, he averaged 87 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 93 in SuperCoach.
He's actually quite similar to a Cripps or Steele, not fast but a strong first couple of steps and powerful through the core so he can clear stoppages carrying the ball. He's also relentless in his pressure without it so he's always in the play which helps make up for not being fast.
He's clean as well which helps, one grabbing and then being strong and fairly explosive can cover for a lack of speed as you separate from the contest.
Definitely not a speed guy though, Cerra is the guy who is going to change that dynamic a lot more, his work in space is exceptional. Realistically this is like Brisbane adding Lyons and Neale, Cerra is the Neale guy who can be a superstar, Hewett is that guy that goes under the radar but is a really valuable piece.
I don't think Carlton fans appreciate just how badly they trade raped Freo this o***eason, absolute criminal action what they got Cerra for! I know only the most hardcore of footy fans are watching the Dockers but the kid is an absolute star in the making. There's a half dozen guys in the league better by foot.
He's clean as well which helps, one grabbing and then being strong and fairly explosive can cover for a lack of speed as you separate from the contest.
Definitely not a speed guy though, Cerra is the guy who is going to change that dynamic a lot more, his work in space is exceptional. Realistically this is like Brisbane adding Lyons and Neale, Cerra is the Neale guy who can be a superstar, Hewett is that guy that goes under the radar but is a really valuable piece.
I don't think Carlton fans appreciate just how badly they trade raped Freo this o***eason, absolute criminal action what they got Cerra for! I know only the most hardcore of footy fans are watching the Dockers but the kid is an absolute star in the making. There's a half dozen guys in the league better by foot.
Nothing really in his stats last year to support it, was slightly better the last 9 or so games but only just.
Definitely could do it but doesn't do a lot of intercept work so reliant entirely on rebounding for his scoring. Reckon they've got a bit too much balance down back and a midfield that limits the overall supply levels a bit so wouldn't be shocked if he lands anywhere in the 90-105 range but would bet money on the 93-98 type of range if you forced me
Definitely could do it but doesn't do a lot of intercept work so reliant entirely on rebounding for his scoring. Reckon they've got a bit too much balance down back and a midfield that limits the overall supply levels a bit so wouldn't be shocked if he lands anywhere in the 90-105 range but would bet money on the 93-98 type of range if you forced me
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Nothing really in his stats last year to support it, was slightly better the last 9 or so games but only just.
Definitely could do it but doesn't do a lot of intercept work so reliant entirely on rebounding for his scoring. Reckon they've got a bit too much balance down back and a midfield that limits the overall supply levels a bit so wouldn't be shocked if he lands anywhere in the 90-105 range but would bet money on the 93-98 type of range if you forced me
Definitely could do it but doesn't do a lot of intercept work so reliant entirely on rebounding for his scoring. Reckon they've got a bit too much balance down back and a midfield that limits the overall supply levels a bit so wouldn't be shocked if he lands anywhere in the 90-105 range but would bet money on the 93-98 type of range if you forced me
I'm personally really struggling with the defenders though. The fact that Hall stands out as a safe pick to me probably says it all! The hard part is I think 105 remains the cutoff point this year. I see no reason for Hall, Lloyd or Stewart to fall off and I'd think between Whitfield, Rich, Crisp, Heppell, Ridley, Short, Ryan, Dale, Daniel, Cumming, Perryman, Sicily and a few others you'll find another 3 to get there. Just don't ask me to pick the 3
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Nothing really in his stats last year to support it, was slightly better the last 9 or so games but only just.
Definitely could do it but doesn't do a lot of intercept work so reliant entirely on rebounding for his scoring. Reckon they've got a bit too much balance down back and a midfield that limits the overall supply levels a bit so wouldn't be shocked if he lands anywhere in the 90-105 range but would bet money on the 93-98 type of range if you forced me
Definitely could do it but doesn't do a lot of intercept work so reliant entirely on rebounding for his scoring. Reckon they've got a bit too much balance down back and a midfield that limits the overall supply levels a bit so wouldn't be shocked if he lands anywhere in the 90-105 range but would bet money on the 93-98 type of range if you forced me
It is why we always picks breakouts and trade them before they deliver, lack of proven premium history sees us lose patience and then conviction in the player.
I for one loved Merv's glass half full take from it
I do really like Dale and absolutely think he's capable.
Probably something worth noting with Dale and the Dogs in general is that with Wood retiring there is definitely an opening for a bit more intercept work and Dale does make sense, he's got great range and is a solid overhead marker.
What style they replace Wood with actually will be a big preseason question. Keath isn't terribly mobile but can intercept when in position. Gardiner/Cordy are both limited types. Daniel and Duryea are too small. That leaves the Crozier, Williams, Dale and Schache (if played back) names as potential intercept guys. I think that Dale actually stands out as the pick of those as he's the best rebounder and also probably the weakest individual defender of the group.
Definitely something to watch in the preseason though, if he does take over a bigger intercept role while maintaining kick-ins and rebound responsibility then he rockets up the list and I think that range expands upwards slightly as well.
I do really like Dale and absolutely think he's capable.
Probably something worth noting with Dale and the Dogs in general is that with Wood retiring there is definitely an opening for a bit more intercept work and Dale does make sense, he's got great range and is a solid overhead marker.
What style they replace Wood with actually will be a big preseason question. Keath isn't terribly mobile but can intercept when in position. Gardiner/Cordy are both limited types. Daniel and Duryea are too small. That leaves the Crozier, Williams, Dale and Schache (if played back) names as potential intercept guys. I think that Dale actually stands out as the pick of those as he's the best rebounder and also probably the weakest individual defender of the group.
Definitely something to watch in the preseason though, if he does take over a bigger intercept role while maintaining kick-ins and rebound responsibility then he rockets up the list and I think that range expands upwards slightly as well.
Not even the best at Freo last year.
https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...b-best-kickers-short-long-pressure-front-goal
https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...b-best-kickers-short-long-pressure-front-goal