Position 2022: Defender Discussion

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#81
I think I've just picked Dawson!!!
His scores last year seemed to correlate with how many kicks he had. He only had 1 big score at the SCG in the last match against witches hats.
He's a fascinating player. It's hard to find a better kick, I wouldn't say he takes full value of his size like a Fyfe but he's still in the very top tier as a marking midfielder purely because of his size and because he has exceptional leading habits for a midfielder which other midfielders can't defend. He's a 105+ guy as a natural wingman. The concern is he's a 75-85 type guy as a forward so if he gets stuck there again it really hurts and to date his scoring has been temperamental and very role based.

I think he's got the tools inside. He's very good at the shifty movements to make space in tight areas, he definitely doesn't seek the contest (not his role with Sydney to be fair) but he also wins most one on one contests that's he in, he's got clean hands and he's pretty strong in the tackle generally though definitely leans towards the not getting tackled (think Pendles subtle movements to shake), I think part of it is he's the rare left footer who can and will go onto his right which definitely allows him to shake people who get locked onto the left. He tackles well when it's his turn, again role hasn't forced this often. Mostly though if he's getting 15+ kicks you're going to be hitting a target on 10 of those and he tends to kick a lot longer than most players who connect at the rate he does so the effective metres gained accumulates rapidly. I also think that as a more inside midfielder there's no reason he can't still provide that linking role he's so good at from the wing or sweep to defense, similar to Bont or Pendles again at their sides.

He's not in my side right now but that's mostly me throwing shade at spending money down back and that I think Lloyd and Hall are safer picks.

I also want to see how Adelaide are using him and how he looks in the role, his biggest negative at Sydney is he's very pouty, when he's played in unfavourable positions he basically just shuts down and stops trying, he's also to date been a really poor forward because all those things he does really well as a midfielder he's really just average at when compared to forwards. I can definitely see a scenario where he ends up kind of dogging it in a Crows side I think could be pretty ordinary this year after getting paid so I think I'm kind of happy to wait and see on him.
 
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#82
I can see the upside for sure, but sell me on the pick if you would...

Averaging 85 he increases in price about 90k (worse than a rookie) and is too weak to really be an F6/D6 keeper. So is it a value pick to get some points on field early that then becomes DPP bench cover?

$300k+ is a lot of starting salary for someone to end up on the bench ;)

Or is there a strong case for 90+? That would seem perhaps ambitious off 6 games - undoubtedly a talented footballer though :unsure:
He's definitely at a very awkward price. If I pick him it's not for 85. I think 93+ from his starting price would work, especially down back this year where I think D6 cutoff is about 98-100.

The case for that 95 range is actually pretty good. He put up 85, albeit on a small sample, after a midseason switch and no training for the position, his natural flair to run and attack from that change was genuinely impressive because a lot of the time attacking players end up shutting down when switched back as they focus too much on the defense. I think with a full preseason learning the position, Houli out of the picture entirely and a good defense around him he's very well positioned to push towards 95.

It was interesting that his kicking improved out of sight after the move and he just looked a different player. Very comparable type to Impey and Hind last year who both were around 93. I actually think Rioli's situation is better as both those guys were in teams with several other guys compared to just Short and a bit of Vlastuin when he gets a head of steam.

DPP doesn't hurt given you get a look at both the forwards and backs but I think this year the threshold is going to be 100+ for both those so probably not as valuable as normal.
 
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#83
10,000 dodging...

Sinclair - Loved his season last year but similar to the Hawks, so many names to fit in there. Think they will keep sharing, especially given Ratten seems obsessed with Dougal Howard, by far the worst kick and the best marker in their backline, taking the kickouts which really hurts all the fantasy viable guys.

Houston - I probably should have put him with Tuohy above but I still think there's more there... I've basically vetoed myself from picking him again this year so fully expecting the breakout and then I'll trade him in and he dies because that's how it works.

Williams - I mean, he looks and moves a bit like Houston as a player so why not be the exact same thing... Wonder if he shows up like a fat pig again or in shape this year... He's underpriced.

That's the top 40 done, now the other names that stand out to me a bit...

Blicavs - If they went with him as ruck. Not sure how you could trust it even if they did for round one...

Bowes - Definitely worth watching, showed his ceiling to start last year, showed how bad he can be from that point on...

Saad - Weirdly bad season last year, clearly playing hurt for a large chunk, if not the entire season. No good reason he can't get back to 95+, ticks a lot of boxes. Definitely watching.

Powell - Probably same boat as Bowes, probably in each other's way, possibly not good enough.

Lukosius - Stinker of a season last year, like really bad. Not sure what his role will be but he's far better than his price. Definitely a 95+ rebounding defender there, needs to stop playing so small and add intercept work, not just for fantasy but his team is desperate for it also, if he's staying in defense. Realistically needs to become the CHF he was drafted as though.

Howe - I've got a fork in him at this point. Body seems done and the premium scoring seems a yesteryear thing.

Young - He's a supreme talent. Might be too soon but I'm definitely watching him, they need him.

Haynes - Enigma, I think the 87 is probably his real area after going 75/87/98/76 over the last 4 years given some injuries last year. With so many rebounders I can't see the 98 as likely.

Ash - Speaking of too many rebounders, I think there's a 95+ rebounder here, not sure it's with GWS given the other options.

Duggan - Blown us all off last year, watch him do it this year. The role is there, albeit probably as a defender this year not a mid.

H. Clark - Still rate him so highly, surprised Ratten seems to hate him so much as a player given it's hard to fault a guy who is hard as nails and uses it well but Ratten has always been one of those coaches. Still, I think there's probably 3 different roles he can be fantasy relevant in so if he lands in them then he's chance, heck probably four even if you break genuine midfielder into inside mid and outside mid (wing, hbf the other two), note that forward pocket and HFF are not on that list and neither is bench warmer.

Hewett - Huge wraps on him. Consummate team man who always sacrificed his role but don't let that hide the little fantasy pig that he is when he isn't doing that. Can absolutely average 95+ in a normal midfield role and could push much higher if they use him as they should. Cripps is a broken mess and even if he isn't he needs help and Hewett is easily their 2nd best inside mid and should have that role. Coach is the big question as just have no idea what he's going to do but if he goes common sense, Hewett should be near the top of their rotation. Hewett and Cripps feeding Cerra and Walsh is a damn good starting point. Hewett has serious Lyons potential at the Blues.

Day - I know I lumped him above but he is cheap enough to at least mention, could play wing and could score very well alleviating some of the concerns above. Body hard to trust at this point.

Petrovski-Seton - It's clear he was very lazy at Carlton but I loved this add for the Eagles, they desperately need some class in the midfield and while he was clearly lazy, Carlton were also obsessed with playing him out of position. SPS under NicNat can basically be what Kelly's kicking stops him being, that second fiddle that can run off Shuey/Yeo into wide open tap-zones for NicNat to hit on the burst and then hit the big leading targets on the tit. I'll at least have him high on the watch list because he's so talented.

Coffield - Probably a too many chef victim but I rate him.

Rioli/Blakely/Coleman/Farrar/Campbell/Ruscoe - Like the two who can be forwards the most but will watch all of them as super talented guys in rebounding roles. Not sure how many can be squeezed in but definitely watching!

Milera - Probably could be in the group above. Same story.

Connolly - Showed a bit last year, another Saint but I really liked his composure given his experience. Big leap though.
Thanks for that comprehensive write-up @wogitalia. I think you meant Blakey and I‘m considering him. What do you see as his scoring range if they play him off HB?
 
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#84
2 games in 2 years, every year since 2018 he has been struck down with injury.

Very talented player no doubt but his durability is a real concern.
Guys made of glass and is pretty hard to trust but did show in 2018 post bye that he can score at just about premium numbers unlike the vast majority of mid priced options, averaged 91 IIRC.
 

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#85
W Milera:
Career disposals avg: 16.87
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 17: 84.5 from 30 (11/30 below 80, 23/30 below 100)
SC avg when disposals below 17: 54.90 from 32 (29/32 below 80, 32/32 below 100)

25/38 with 17+ Disposals from 2018 onwards.
Post Bye 2018 to RD20 2019= 19/23 with 17+ Disposals for an avg of 83.17.

Indicator of what he is capable of, if he can have an extended run of matches for those that might have forgotten.
 
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#87
Thanks for that comprehensive write-up @wogitalia. I think you meant Blakey and I‘m considering him. What do you see as his scoring range if they play him off HB?
I did miss him it would seem.

Blakey - I like him a lot but his body is beyond fragile. He has a completely reckless approach to how he tackles, bumps and plays the ball like he's seemingly trying to leave himself open to contact when doing so and given he's about 35kg soaking wet that's a terrible tactic. I really hope we've spent the o***eason teaching him how to actually protect himself, tackle and attack the ball so that it's not always with his head/neck dangling out asking to get snapped. I'm genuinely concerned he's going to get paralysed if he doesn't fix it. Seriously, if he was a junior who played like that you wouldn't field him as a coach until he fixed it so doing it at AFL level is just absurd. I used to coach American Football and one of the very first drills you do ad nauseum is tackling technique, let's just say that he needs that drill.

He's dynamic with the ball though and a great kick, he has that Caleb Daniel ability to see and kick angles that 95% of players can't even do, he's got line breaking speed and he is great in the air. If it all came together for him he could genuinely score 100+ but the inability to stay on the field and an obnoxious talent for going missing for weeks at a time also is a huge issue, he's so inconsistent even from quarter to quarter that I drag that down. If he's half as frustrating as a fantasy pick as he is as a fan of his team then good luck!

Seriously though I think he can match Dale last year at 95, the secondary rebounding role is available, Dawson and Mills have both managed to be 100+ guys in that role and Lloyd likes to look short and those guys who shrug off his petulant demands for pointless one-twos have an avenue to score (and Blakey like those two should shake him off because he's a much better ball user). Realistically though with all the injuries he inflicts on himself with technique issues I think mid 80s would be a strong season for him. If he can stay fit, do some intercept work and be the 2nd rebounder, 95 is definitely achievable but I'd say that's the 10% outcome for him and not the likely outcome.

Great guy to target in draft leagues, imo, credit to anyone who takes him if it does work out but for me personally I'm very unlikely to start him.



This is not a good plan, imo.

Paying what is full price, to potentially overpriced given his scoring history as a HB, on the hope of the position change is just not a good play, heck his scoring history at HB he's speculative that he's even a keeper there as he wasn't very good at it last time round!

Pendles the HB for me is a hard pass, wait for him to get the DPP and move back into the midfield when it's not working and then jump on or let him confirm that he's a 100+ keeper type and get him there.

Plus there is the very real outcome here where you pick a 90s midfielder who plays midfield only and ends your season.

There is just so little to gain to this play.


W Milera:
Career disposals avg: 16.87
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 17: 84.5 from 30 (11/30 below 80, 23/30 below 100)
SC avg when disposals below 17: 54.90 from 32 (29/32 below 80, 32/32 below 100)

25/38 with 17+ Disposals from 2018 onwards.
Post Bye 2018 to RD20 2019= 19/23 with 17+ Disposals for an avg of 83.17.

Indicator of what he is capable of, if he can have an extended run of matches for those that might have forgotten.
He's a quality player, durability is a huge factor but he's cheap enough to grab as a cash generator if the rookies aren't great. Role will be an interesting question for him as well. Could fit in across a few spots and the scoring could vary greatly with those. HB probably the pick of them given you'd have to think 2 of Sholl/Seed/Dawson is the wings to start. HF would be a pass for me.

If he is HB, it's not a dissimilar story to Impey who missed a lot of footy also before coming back to be pretty damn good.
 
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#89
Daniel Rioli 336k Def/fwd

When moved to defence after Houli was out, he averaged 84.5 in the final 6 weeks of the season (scores of 83, 111, 54, 87, 95, 77)

With Houli retired, I assume he is still playing half back tiger supporters?

Certainly impressed playing half back, like that he has dual classification- really helps my structure having him at D4.
He's been training with the backs all pre season so there's nothing to suggest that he wont have that role. I'm discounting that 54 in those last 6 games, he had 7 clangers which destroyed his score and I believe he's a much better user than that game suggests, so without the 54 he averaged 91 whist learning Houli's role on the run, if he can average 90 for 8 games or so then he'll have done his job for my side as it'll be a simple 1 up 1 down to turn him into a premo DEF. DPP status is a bonus when linked with Kiddy/Skinner/De Koning. I'm not picking him as a keeper, purely as a stepping stone, same as Kiddy. FWIW I have Rioli at D4 and Kiddy at D5.
 
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#90
Lines Up on the Wing RD 1.?
Lines Up in the Rehabilitation Centre RD 2.?
Yeah, but at some point you have a good run injury free. two years is a long time to be injured. How do you see the Crows deploying new recruit Dawson.?
Not sure he'd be on the wing, I reckon Dawson and Seedsman will fill that role most of the time (and perhaps Brodie Smith occaisonally?) I'm hoping he picks up a fair of Rory Laird's old role as a rebounding intercept defender driving the ball through the centre of the ground. I reckon Tom Doedee largely filled that void last season with Laird moving into the mids full time, but my gut feel is he could use some help.

Dawson seems to have a great accurate driving kick into the forward line, so hopefully we can use that to complement Seedsman on the opposite wing to beat opposition defences.
 
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#91
I think there's just so many outlets off half back and Jiath did very well playing loose in defence, so I'm not sure if Sicily has a clear path to scoring as well as he has in the past. A lot to play out and some good signs in preseason will probably see me select him
Where do you think he plays if not main distributor? If he’s playing back, as it appears he will according to Mitchell, he’s the man you want to have the ball I reckon as he’s an average defender at best.

Very, very surprised to not see him in >60% of teams this time of year.
 
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#92
Where do you think he plays if not main distributor? If he’s playing back, as it appears he will according to Mitchell, he’s the man you want to have the ball I reckon as he’s an average defender at best.

Very, very surprised to not see him in >60% of teams this time of year.
Plays half fwd - can take a mark and kick straight.
 
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#94
Does anyone know what is going on with Jack Bowes? Is he injured? Can he replicate his start to last year?
View attachment 38799 View attachment 38800
From earlier this month :-

Injury news coming out of Suns camp, Gun utility Jack Bowes reportedly has injured a shoulder in a tackle and will be sidelined for around three months.

I can understand how you missed the news SCBBL/11 Champion ;):cool:
 

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#95
From earlier this month :-

Injury news coming out of Suns camp, Gun utility Jack Bowes reportedly has injured a shoulder in a tackle and will be sidelined for around three months.

I can understand how you missed the news SCBBL/11 Champion ;):cool:
Thanks. Just scourging for some unpopular PODs ;)
 
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#98
Where do you think he plays if not main distributor? If he’s playing back, as it appears he will according to Mitchell, he’s the man you want to have the ball I reckon as he’s an average defender at best.

Very, very surprised to not see him in >60% of teams this time of year.
I actually think he's a pretty decent defender but agree he's still a good pick and will probably start in my side.
 
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#99
Does anyone know what is going on with Jack Bowes? Is he injured? Can he replicate his start to last year?
View attachment 38799 View attachment 38800
I watched Bowes closely last season because I was stupid enough to jump on after his big scores, there wasn't a lot to like. I don't know if Bowes was playing injured or just disinterested for a fair portion of the season. He often looked slow, couldn't get near the ball when his teammates weren't feeding it to him and really lacks penetration in his kicking. GC moving away from their hopeless ball retention strategy killed him off SC wise, and Powell took a lot of Bowes' score sources away largely by being much better suited to the distributor role. More athletic, better defender, better interceptor, better rebounder, more damaging kick.

At some point Dew started leaving Bowes on the Bench for the majority of the first quarter and his TOG suffered badly. Dew's baffling defensive setup didn't help either, Bowes got stuck as a 3rd "tall" a few times and even moved forward at some point. It was a ****show and even if he was fit I wouldn't go anywhere near him.
 
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Where do you think he plays if not main distributor? If he’s playing back, as it appears he will according to Mitchell, he’s the man you want to have the ball I reckon as he’s an average defender at best.

Very, very surprised to not see him in >60% of teams this time of year.
For me it's just the confusion factor. I don't know where Mitchell goes but Bramble looked their best rebounder last year, he was disgustingly good with his kicking and decision making for a guy with 5 games. Day is also an outstanding player. Throw in Impey, Jiath and Hardwick and it's a really interesting mix to slot back into. You've also got DGB who could be eased in as an intercept defender and ask Sicily to defend a bit more given he's more physically ready for it.

There's also the durability and discipline aspect with him and I personally always have concerns when guys take so long to come back from an ACL, having done a couple you're not back until you've played a couple of games unscathed and his recovery period is extremely long, that's a whole lot of time to get inside your head when you get that off schedule.

Having said that, he's still on the radar, one of the few triple threats who will take kick-ins, intercept and be the primary rebounder if things go to plan from a fantasy perspective and that's gold. If he was 100k cheaper he'd be in 60% of teams but I can definitely see the reasons to not pick him.

I'm personally really struggling with the defenders though. The fact that Hall stands out as a safe pick to me probably says it all! The hard part is I think 105 remains the cutoff point this year. I see no reason for Hall, Lloyd or Stewart to fall off and I'd think between Whitfield, Rich, Crisp, Heppell, Ridley, Short, Ryan, Dale, Daniel, Cumming, Perryman, Sicily and a few others you'll find another 3 to get there. Just don't ask me to pick the 3 :LOL:
 
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