Time for the backs, normally I find myself fond of the backs and end up trying to squeeze in 8 to 4 or 5 spots, this year is the first in a long time I actually prefer the forwards I think for that factor.
Lloyd - Probably the closest guy to a lock for me right now across all positions. Durability is ace. Can make a genuine case he's underpriced with Dawson and Mills out of the way. Averaged 110 over the last 11 games when Dawson moved to a wing, averaged 115 over the last 6 when Hewett was in the mids and Dawson in an attacking wing role.
Basically he has no competition for cheap touches or even really for any kind of attacking forays out of defense. Probably ends up being Blakey as the other guy and he'll miss a quarter of each game and every third game if his career is anything to go by.
I haven't started Lloyd in several years but he just feels primed for a 110+ year.
Ziebell - Not a lot of interest here. Was great last year but he's fair to over priced. Averaged "just" 99 over the last 13 games as Hall stole his points. Hall is more dynamic and I expect him to remain #1.
Stewart - Can make a case he's underpriced after that incoherent game where they tried to turn him into a lockdown back pocket. Durability has a couple of blows the last couple of years but isn't terrible.
Ultimately I think he's fairly priced. I tend to like that when there isn't good value around but I think there is...
Rich - One of the weirder big breakouts I've seen, I actually picked him as a potential premium last year in the equivalent of this post but I didn't see 107 (obviously or I'd have started him!). Feels like the kind of freak breakout that rebounds to the mean next year rather than being what to expect.
Could be wrong though, he was huge. I do think Coleman probably demands more ball than Birchall who was basically just a 1-2 machine for Rich to rack up some cheapies but there's no real reason he can't sustain this. I do think that gun to my head he's in the fairly priced to overpriced group though.
Hall - I try and walk away but I just can't find the reason to. HBF is the easiest position, both for fantasy reasons but also on the body, the amount of breakable types who go there and start playing 22 games is uncanny. Averaged 116 over his last 16 games and 122 over the last 8 as he got more and more comfortable in the role and was genuinely influencing games, sure there were cheap stats but he was playing good footy.
Basically that has him 10-15 points underpriced with elite scoring potential. I think the only thing pushing him out of my team would be him playing somewhere else entirely in preseason.
Crisp - Really hard to judge. Durability is obviously immense. He actually scored his best last year after going back into defense over the last 8 or so rounds. Based on that scoring he'd actually be underpriced but I think it's fair to say he's basically fairly priced to overpriced based on history.
There's a lot to be said about a guy who rocks up, averages 100 and plays 22 games though and unlike everyone but Lloyd above, he offers that.
Dawson - Don't like him with the uncertainty of how they plan to use him. I heard HF much more than I'd want to in the trade period aftermath. He should go down as one of the bigger trade rapes unless Adelaide stuff it up because they got INCREDIBLE value on him, he was comfortably the best winger in the league over the last 10 or so rounds last year. He's an elite rebounding defender and I dare say he'd be excellent as an inside midfielder also.
But I just have no idea how they will use him or how he fits into the new team and their style and until I know that it's hard to take the risk. He could be the top averaging defender in the right roles though so will be watching. Average is tanked by Horse dicking him around positionally for the first half of last year.
Heppell - Durability has been an issue for him the last few years. I'm not sure what his role will be this year, I assume they recruited Kelly for a reason, even if I can't find it despite my best efforts, releasing Heppell to the midfield or wing makes as much sense as anything on that front. Another where you get what you pay for most likely.
Ryan - He's underpriced after struggling with his body, which is a win/lose sentence! For mine him and Stewart are basically the same player so I'd obviously prefer Ryan at 8 points cheaper but I tend to lean towards them both kind of being 103 types. Bit of value but not a lot and the Dockers do have some unknown to them.
Ridley - It's hard to go past him, that said perhaps it's my search for a reason of them recruiting Kelly going to far as to why I like him... as to me the only reason that really makes any sense to recruit Kelly is to free Ridley up to be a floating 3rd tall with no defensive responsibility again after they tried to turn him into a lockdown defender over the back half of last season for some inane reason. I still think he's closer to what he was pre-concussion last year than the mediocre player he was the rest of the year. I think he's a 110 range guy if used correctly but while Rutten is pretty damn high on my coach trust list, Ridley is the one guy I didn't get last year.
Short - Clear path #1 rebounder. Probably fairly priced but could definitely produce that Rich type of season. Basically I feel really good he averages 95+ with a better than average chance of breaking past 100. Does too many things too well. That said I think his upside is probably limited compared to a few other names due to being a pretty one-dimensional scorer.
Doch - Get well soon star!
Dale - Could definitely push a bit higher but a fair bit of competition for touches and like Short he's pretty one-dimensional. Like him though and wouldn't be shocked if he went towards 105, he definitely can intercept mark if they want to.
Andrews - KPD aren't for me, especially fairly limited ones.
Salem - First half of the season was absurd, 2nd half was pretty poor. Think his average is about right. Lot of chefs here and he's one-dimensional.
Weitering - Huge season last year, has more strings to his bow than most KPD, do wonder how Jones being gone will hurt him, his ability to take the best forward and nullify them definitely helped Weitering stay in the more favourable matchups but the kids quality. Ultimately KPD struggle to go much higher than this.
Daniel - I thought he had upside at 101.5 last year to the point where he was one of the last non-selections I made. Still think there is but role uncertainty last year and Dale's emergence have dented that to an extent. Still think he's underpriced but he's another single tool guy.
Hind - My best move of the year last year. No interest this year for all the same concerns I have on Heppell. That said, wouldn't be shocked if he did push 100+. Ultimately there might just be too many chefs at the Bombers.
Cumming - I really like him, another of my better picks last year (the fact my best picks were hitting 93 probably says it all...). Quality ball user, can intercept as well. Another where there is team uncertainty. Ash, Whitfield, Perryman and Haynes is a lot of competition.
Whitfield - (edited in...) Posted it above to be honest, concussion history has become a genuine concern, especially given his last couple have been like bumping into someone on a train. He's fragile.
He can also score like almost no one on this list. He's not SC friendly in what he does with over-ambitious kicking and the predominantly non-contact style but he just racks it up over and over and brute forces scores.
Ultimately it's hard to argue he's not 7 points underpriced with upside to that into a 20 type number. Probably cheap enough to trump the durability concerns.
Role is the other question, where will they use him? His scoring has been pretty solid despite roles but he's definitely at his best playing more midfield or as a pure rebounder than shuffling everywhere, not needed for defense so hopefully takes up a wing.
Maynard - Not sure what happened to him last year, just seemed lost. Probably fair to say last year and the year before are basically the range he's in as a player. Not quite good enough with the ball or intercepting to take the leap. Lot of competition also. Durability a plus.
Perryman - He's that surprisingly good bad player, I still haven't worked him out! Think he's pretty fairly priced but he could definitely improve.
Hardwick/Sicily/Impey/Jiath/Scrimshaw/Bramble/Day - Just going to put them all together. That's 7 names before you even get to the actual defenders trying to fit into 6 spots and from those 6 spots realistically you might have 3 who can score premium. Anyone who can pick the winner in that bunch and actually puts them in their team, if there even is a winner, deserves the 50k!
Lever/Moore/McGovern/Aliir/Taylor/Doedee/May - Lets call them the KP guys who we know what they are more or less. To be fair I like May because kick-ins but still think the ceiling is on the low side.
Hurn - I mean he scored better than he played last year. With no Shep he might be worth more consideration than I'm giving him but durability has fallen away and at his age I don't trust the body.
Tuohy/Vlastuin/B. Smith - Lets call them the inconsistent rebounders group of we know what they are.
Newman - Definitely some upside here, there's the spot available to put up 95+. On the radar.
Witherden - Does anyone trust him? It's a problem when you're so bad defensively that you get beaten as the floating rebounder... He can score but can he keep the trust to stay in the side? Will watch as the spot is there for him.