Part 3...
Viney - Nope.
Warner - See Mills for my Horse trust issues but this is another absurd upside play. He's got the potential to be the best midfielder I've seen at Sydney since Paul Kelly, heck I'd even say that Paul Kelly is the best comparison I have for him, if you take my word on anything, take my word that a Paul Kelly comparison is about as high a praise as I could ever give, honestly he was basically the perfect midfielder for anyone I've gone too deep on the time frame for comparisons! So the negatives are easy, Horse position roulette and tags, he broke a couple, died under a couple in the last 10 weeks. He averaged 114 over the last 8 (dips a bit with the Melbourne final if including those but was outstanding in the other two). Durability has to date been good, admittedly limited reference points. He's that ultra rare midfielder that wins contested ball, breaks from contest and is in the elite of the elite kicking it. Needs to tackle more but another preseason should help with that and guys who are as game breaking at stoppages as him will always be lower in that area because they're the primary moving target. He's the one young gun I'm genuinely happy and support getting midfield minutes over Mills and Heeney. He genuinely could win a Brownlow this year, he's that good. He needs to get more pill, tackle more and would be nice if he'd spread better from contests to get more easy ball in space and, honestly, that's the perfect group of "weaknesses" you want in ridiculous break outs. For what it's worth that was basically Dangerfield's list before he went supersaiyan. Given he's probably the best kick in the team (we've got Mills, Gulden, Campbell and Blakey so that's not hollow praise) and that he is nigh on uncatchable when on the run it makes zero sense that his entire preseason wouldn't be focused on how to break from stoppages to remain dangerous. If he jumps to 28 touches, adds a couple of marks and a tackle, that's 120+ with how he uses and his ability to kick goals if he gets the ball within 120m of goal. Ok, so the potential is absurd but time to temper that, I think he ends up more likely in the 110-115 range, you've got to account for Horse, he'll do random stuff, there'll be a month where he experiments, load manages or whatever he does, I think tags are going to be a huge issue and that this year will be spent working through them and how to beat them, this is a positive long term as the things he needs to add to break them are the same things that will allow him to average 135 and be the best midfielder in the league, this is the year that will test him on whether that is the goal or if he's happy with being really, really good. He's another one who is an exceptional breakout pick, perfect season for him is probably 130, he should push towards 110, which is an M8 failure point, he's cheap enough you wont do much better in season on that 110 outcome. I can't fault anyone who goes this pick and I honestly hope you've nailed it!
Kennedy - I like him but his durability is terrible and I can't see how he goes to a higher level barring injuries to others.
Treloar - Preseason issues dent what could have been a very interesting play if he'd claimed the Dunkley role. I think he probably starts forward as they ease him in and becomes viable as a result at round 6.
Titch - I have absolutely no read on him. He's got his issues, I don't think the Pies style suits him, his defensive work definitely slipped last year, I'm not entirely sold the Hawks phased him out of the guts purely just to give the kids minutes. On the flipside, he's exactly what the Pies need inside, his best role by so much it's not funny, with Pendles, Sidey, Daicos x2, Maynard and Crisp there's a lot of smooth moving outside types for him to create scoring chains through, his scoring history is impeccable in the right role, his durability has been excellent, albeit has been banged up a few times. Honestly, I'm going to find it hard to not pick him if he busts out a big preseason score, you could argue that all the negatives I listed on him have applied his whole career. There's definitely a concern that none of the Pies mids scored well last year given Macrae is a Richmond disciple and it's unavoidable that they played a similar style last year of chaos ball. Honestly, I don't want to pick him so I'm hoping he gives me that 95 type score that allows me to but of all the players I want to avoid on this list, he's the one giving me the most Sicily vibes (aka the prick that will ruin my season entirely this year when I don't pick them, Sicily is just the latest and actually one of the few I didn't like, normally it's someone like Mitchell that I have a soft spot for!). Honestly, he's hard to argue against.
Crisp - Not for mine, if he goes back, scores well and all that, then he'll get DPP but I'm not picking a guy I don't think can hit M8 levels on those grounds.
Perryman - Nope.
Prestia - Nope, durability, new horses, Richmond, etc.
Shiel - Nope.
Amon - No one will pick him but when I look at the Hawks list he's quite clearly their best midfielder and I love Newcombe and Wingard but he's just so much better in creating space and using up territory than Newcombe and he's just way more reliable than Wingard. He's not as good a kick as he looks but he's got serious ability to find the ball when used as a midfielder, which was incredibly infrequent at Port where they're loaded in that area with what are just better players in Boak, Wines, Rozee and Butters especially but he fits the Hawks style well. The question for me though is do they use him on a wing, where they've got so many other options, or do they throw him inside and unleash him. He could easily average 115+ on the latter, he's a few points underpriced only on the latter role. Mitchell mostly did things that made sense last year, I personally thought he was clear coach of the year so I rated what he did so unlike some other coaches I have faith here. Not enough to take the punt on Amon but honestly, of the 0% guys he's absolutely the one I'd pick if his role looks good.
Cerra - Not for mine, may start hot while Walsh is out but I can't see the role, like a McCluggage, he's the guy who's excellent on a wing in a midfield group of, excellent, grunts.
Lyons - He looked to have been phased out last year, obviously if he wasn't and there was something wrong and he's back in the guts he's a must watch. He's right at the prime range for you're not likely to beat this starting price for your M8 in season and he's a proven 117 scorer, that's higher than M8 potential. Dunkley and Ashcroft and the way he finished last year would take some serious convincing for mine but he's still a must watch.
Simpkin - I don't know why but I still like him, he's so close to that, "He is what he is" declaration and I can't even really say why I expect he could score 115 other than I actually don't understand why he doesn't already
. He's really good at basically everything you'd want but just doesn't seem to roll over to the next level to be great. Part of it is a terrible team but others have overcome that. I mean I'm not even going to bother here but one year I expect he'll have that season and I'll feel good on the inside!
Serong - Yet another who can have a brilliant case made, in a weird way he's already on the Simpkin path where he's kind of been a notch below what I expect each year and yet still really good. JOM is super unfortunate, from a fantasy perspective he's just a thorn in all the relevant guys' sides. Honestly, I love Serong as a player but there's nothing he does right now that makes me go 120+ potential, he may yet add those traits but I think he struggles to push past 110, probably good for an M8 pick at his price but, broken record, I think there's higher upside options than that target unless you're genuinely trying a left field strategy on that.
M. Crouch - I think I've moved on from this guy getting me every preseason, just. If the word of an exceptional and perfect preseason came out and he tore the preseason to shreds then maybe he'd drag me back into our toxic relationship like that ex we all screw up and go back to after one drink too many and just like we regret that, I will regret if I start Crouch again and yet... At this point I think he's more a reason to not pick Laird than he's an option himself.
Rowell - Wouldn't shock me at all if he averaged 115, not one bit. I'm not going near it as it wouldn't surprise me if he played 4 games, dropped 50k and needed a trade and I can't find a strong case for option A being more likely than option B. Seriously though, this isn't a bad value play here. He still spent a lot of time last year doing defensive jobs and experimental running patterns and unrewarded positioning, not even bad spots but just options that a good team uses and a bad team ignores, aka he does things at levels that a lot of his teammates aren't looking for. He tackles a lot, he uses the ball well despite the ugly kicking action and he refuses to not make everything contested. Not dissimilar to Warner in that the areas to improve are the "easy" areas to improve. He needs to work to space and demand the ball more, just get more easy pill in general and for Rowell, hit the scoreboard (a lot more). They're the easiest aspects to improve when targeting a breakout and a lot of it is just going to come from confidence and improved fitness bases. I'm not picking him but I actually really like his breakout candidacy and he's another of those super unique plays that I think is actually a very good one.
