I'd say a huge portion of that is they can put guys like Bolton and Martin (not as much last year) in for CBA where they run one direction and they can replace them (it's why Lambert was so huge for them, he'd defensively cover those guys from HF with insane workrate) but they can't utilise those two around the ground to the same level as they get exposed, especially in the defensive half.
I'd be shocked if Hopper doesn't play a pure midfield role this year and score very well. Durability is basically the only question, if he's fit he's going to score very well for his starting price. Prestia was their only above average midfielder last year. They were giving huge midfield minutes to Cotchin, Ross, Dow, RCD, Short and Sonsie throughout the season. Hopper (and Taranto) are considerably better than that list outside Short who is a very different player and, imo, far better playing HB or even wing.
In short, Hopper should comfortably make 100k and score reliably. The question is how much further he can go.
I think the big issue with Richmond is historically they're not producing keeper level scoring and given he's never done it, I think the idea of keeper scoring for Hopper is a big longshot.
Taranto a bit better but want to see how his role lands before jumping. He's outstanding value though.
Midpricers are basically like playing roulette. The more spins of the wheel, the more likely you lose.
Looking at my mid price madness team from last year, a pretty good representation despite the limitations the rules impart.
I've left out the cheapies I filled the roster with, cash is to the byes as that's what's relevant.
H. Young - High end failure. Didn't make enough cash, didn't score enough. There were worse picks but he didn't work out.
B. Hill - Failure.
Hewett - Success but needed a trade after injury.
Sicily - Complete win, was only relevant if you didn't pick him like some idiot on here...
Blakey - Pass. Made enough cash by the bye rounds and scored well. Not a keeper.
Rioli - Debatable. Made 90k, scored decently but definitely not a keeper.
McInerney - Failure. Lost cash, not a premium.
Lipinski - Borderline. Made ~100k and the DPP addition was helpful.
Caldwell - Borderline - Made ~100k.
Newcombe - Win. Made 160k.
Berry - Win. Made 170k.
Rowell - Debatable. If you got out at the right time you made 100k, probably not worth it with ordinary scoring outside round 1.
Parfitt - Failure.
Schoenberg - Failure
Polec - More rookie priced but total failure.
Coniglio - Huge win
Brodie - Huge win (basically a rookie though).
Witts - Enormous win.
Preuss - Rookie priced, kind of a win.
Draper - Failure.
Cameron - Failure. Not quite good enough to be a keeper, didn't make enough cash.
McGovern - Failure.
Rayner - Failure.
Butters - Debatable. Probably keeper level from the value point as a F6, missed 2 games doesn't help.
Naughton - Failure, to be fair mostly picked as had to have a Dog, I wouldn't have chosen him as a breakout naturally.
Gresham - Win
B. Brown - Failure.
The big takeaways for me are the cheaper guys were far more likely to succeed. Basically the guys in the <300k were much better.
Looking at my draft sides last year I considered (using 230k+) Milera, Coleman, Berry, Coniglio, McGovern, Sicily, Cripps, Rowell, Polec, Hewett, Xerri, Whitfield. Can include Butters and Heeney but they started in premium range, imo. Obviously a few of those were ruled out before round one but I took most of them.
Basically there's just no way to nail as many as you need. Ultimately guys are midpriced options for one of a few reasons:
1. Durability - They were injured in the previous season. Past performance is not always indicative of future outcomes but injuries seem to be a pretty reliable trend and so every durability related midpricer has to be viewed as higher risk. Even a lot of the wins above ultimately had to be traded because they got hurt again.
2. Natural Improvement - We can pick them sometimes but you're always projecting the improvement and the reasoning for it, we can watch preseason and extrapolate but even that's unreliable, how many guys get midfield time and then they don't. Chances of nailing these reliably aren't great. One of the hardest parts of these is the standout candidates are generally in that "must be a keeper" level starting price because they've already shown the talent. So you're talking Daicos, Young, Rowell and many other types. Young last year a classic example of being good but not good enough, so you were "right" but still failed. Blakey a good example of being that much cheaper that it allowed it to work. Tom Green another last year who landed in no man's land. I'd say this one is probably the most unreliable path.
3. Position changes - This is, imo, the most reliable thing we can pick from, especially those who had the position change last year and have indicative scoring on file. Rioli or Blakey are great examples of this last year. Trying to pick them unsighted is a lot harder and less reliable. Someone like Rozee is a perfect example of an option of this for the current season where I feel pretty good picking him.
4. New clubs - Another huge guess work one. You can reason what you want but ultimately it's a guess. Hewett or Lipinski for example last year are pretty strong outcomes. Tom Lynch going to Richmond was a huge fail but at the time a KPF going to a much stronger team would be a pretty easy sell for improvement.
You get guys who tick multiples of these, heck Taranto probably ticks all 4 boxes this year
Ultimately the game has shifted to be cash generation being more important than it was before because we now have the trades to use it all. Every value pick you nail is like one step forward and every failed pick is probably two steps back (especially if they're unique).
There's definitely also a valuable to more reliable scoring as opposed to playing rookie roulette, especially if you can avoid needing a rolling donut that costs you cash generation.