2023: SC Planning Thread
- Thread starter Gruffles
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Yes. Lot of unknown with Dunks and a terrible durability record.
He's in the 2nd tier group with Taranto and Coniglio for what, at the moment, looks like 2 spots. If the rookies allow for it, I'll probably take all 4... Although given their durability records, solid chance 2 of them rule themselves out between now and round 1!
To be honest, I can't remember the last time I felt this good about the forward options.
I hate the idea of starting 4 though because of the DPP changes that will come. Very solid chance that Gawn and/or Grundy get FWD, several of the elite mids are always a chance. Until he's injured I can't see how you don't take Fyfe. I want to pick Cameron in the rucks right now. When you factor all that, going with 4 means they have to all be elite or you're going to be in trouble.
Right now I keep ending up with a very premium heavy side, which is kind of funny given this is normally the time when I've got a dozen mid price guys in the gun but I'm struggling to go against the premium mids, I keep gravitating to Witts, I like the probably overpriced defenders too much and I've got a clear 4 forwards that I like. I could also talk myself into Butters or even Moore and there's a couple of the guys in the 80s averages that I also could easily end up with!
He's in the 2nd tier group with Taranto and Coniglio for what, at the moment, looks like 2 spots. If the rookies allow for it, I'll probably take all 4... Although given their durability records, solid chance 2 of them rule themselves out between now and round 1!
To be honest, I can't remember the last time I felt this good about the forward options.
I hate the idea of starting 4 though because of the DPP changes that will come. Very solid chance that Gawn and/or Grundy get FWD, several of the elite mids are always a chance. Until he's injured I can't see how you don't take Fyfe. I want to pick Cameron in the rucks right now. When you factor all that, going with 4 means they have to all be elite or you're going to be in trouble.
Right now I keep ending up with a very premium heavy side, which is kind of funny given this is normally the time when I've got a dozen mid price guys in the gun but I'm struggling to go against the premium mids, I keep gravitating to Witts, I like the probably overpriced defenders too much and I've got a clear 4 forwards that I like. I could also talk myself into Butters or even Moore and there's a couple of the guys in the 80s averages that I also could easily end up with!
Just looked at it mathematically
9 @ $ 600,000.00 = $ 5,400,000.00
6 @ $ 350,000.00 = $ 2,100,000.00
7 @ $ 200,000.00 = $ 1,400,000.00
8 @ $ 125,000.00 = $ 1,000,000.00
Total is $ 9,900,000.00
Numbers are purely a guide
Once we actually know which rookies are playing Round 1 we can tweak everything accordingly
Now got :-
Docherty , Daicos
Miller , Bont , Brayshaw
Grundy , Marshall
Dunkley , D Cameron
6 midpricers for planning
Overspent (deliberately) on my bench by $ 300-400k which then should allow the 6th midpricer to be a premium mid/speculator
Structure in place , now we wait for the rookies to determine the starting side
9 @ $ 600,000.00 = $ 5,400,000.00
6 @ $ 350,000.00 = $ 2,100,000.00
7 @ $ 200,000.00 = $ 1,400,000.00
8 @ $ 125,000.00 = $ 1,000,000.00
Total is $ 9,900,000.00
Numbers are purely a guide
Once we actually know which rookies are playing Round 1 we can tweak everything accordingly
Now got :-
Docherty , Daicos
Miller , Bont , Brayshaw
Grundy , Marshall
Dunkley , D Cameron
6 midpricers for planning
Overspent (deliberately) on my bench by $ 300-400k which then should allow the 6th midpricer to be a premium mid/speculator
Structure in place , now we wait for the rookies to determine the starting side
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I reckon there is a lot of potential keepers at much closer to $500K which skews the figures a bit.
You could conceivably have Daicos, Mitchell, Grundy, Marshall, Rozee, Cameron and Taranto. You would be expecting them all to be keepers and none would really be described as overly speculative picks.
Then you have the Cumming, Redman, Young, Duncan, Richards (Def), Green, Warner, Cerra, Serong, Berry, Newcombe (Mid) and Butters, Moore, Himmelberg, Martin, Gulden, Zorko (Fwd) types. They are way more speculative, but some of them will end up very good picks and potential keepers.
It seems to me that a lot of the potential value lies a tier below the top-dollar players - which is not ideal. We don't have the standout mids like Cogs and Brodie in the 200's this year. All the pickable players in that range with good job security seem to be talls, who won't score at keeper level.
At least there should be some variation in strategies, which is a good thing.
You could conceivably have Daicos, Mitchell, Grundy, Marshall, Rozee, Cameron and Taranto. You would be expecting them all to be keepers and none would really be described as overly speculative picks.
Then you have the Cumming, Redman, Young, Duncan, Richards (Def), Green, Warner, Cerra, Serong, Berry, Newcombe (Mid) and Butters, Moore, Himmelberg, Martin, Gulden, Zorko (Fwd) types. They are way more speculative, but some of them will end up very good picks and potential keepers.
It seems to me that a lot of the potential value lies a tier below the top-dollar players - which is not ideal. We don't have the standout mids like Cogs and Brodie in the 200's this year. All the pickable players in that range with good job security seem to be talls, who won't score at keeper level.
At least there should be some variation in strategies, which is a good thing.
Daicos is actually more interesting than I first thought , based on last year's points he is ranked 11th on aggregate (even more intriguing is Rioli 10th)
Given all the talk about the 5 x $ 600k + guys how much room is available for the others + Brayshaw , Dale , Saad etc etc.
Do like Anderson/Green/Titch but ideally you need them to finish Top 12 minimum, otherwise might be better off just starting Cogs/Butters/Rozee/Taranto as a mid , assuming they will finish Top 8 , with the additions of DPP throughout the season is that a given ?
Just need the 200's guys to do the job until the Byes (if not sooner) , the 350's guys make that magical $ 150k can be upgraded sooner.
But all conjecture and speculation now until the rookies are announced and then we end up changing a third of our team in the last 24-48 hours.
Plenty of options out there.
Given all the talk about the 5 x $ 600k + guys how much room is available for the others + Brayshaw , Dale , Saad etc etc.
Do like Anderson/Green/Titch but ideally you need them to finish Top 12 minimum, otherwise might be better off just starting Cogs/Butters/Rozee/Taranto as a mid , assuming they will finish Top 8 , with the additions of DPP throughout the season is that a given ?
Just need the 200's guys to do the job until the Byes (if not sooner) , the 350's guys make that magical $ 150k can be upgraded sooner.
But all conjecture and speculation now until the rookies are announced and then we end up changing a third of our team in the last 24-48 hours.
Plenty of options out there.
A 50m penalty will no longer be paid if a player fakes a handball while behind the mark, drawing their opponent off their position.
It's one of three tweaks to rule interpretations that have been made ahead of the 2023 Toyota AFL Premiership Season, with the League aiming to simplify the game for officiating, minimising delays and reducing player exploitation of rules.
INS AND OUTS Every club's full list changes ahead of 2023
The modification expected to have the greatest impact on games is around drawing a 50m penalty with a fake handball, a move used by players last season, when they would goad their opponent into moving off the mark before play on was called.
In the video below, Brisbane captain Dayne Zorko gives away a 50m penalty after moving off the mark as St Kilda forward Jack Higgins shaped to handball. This will no longer result in a 50m penalty.
SHARE
00:25
Higgins' fake handball fools Zorko
Jack Higgins wins a 50m penalty after faking a handball on the mark against Brisbane
Published on Aug 12, 2022, 10:20pm
Additionally, players have to make an immediate decision regarding the 5m protected area. When a player is penalised for giving away a free kick or loses a marking contest, they must stand the mark or immediately leave the protected area.
In the video below, Collingwood star Darcy Moore is not in the contest but opts to enter the protected area. He must stand the mark. The example below would now result in a 50m penalty as he has left the area after initially deciding to enter.
00:21
Moore's change of mind on the mark
Collingwood's Darcy Moore chooses to back outside the protected area during the qualifying final against Geelong in 2022
Published on Sep 3, 2022, 6:15pm
The third change will see players no longer given an alert by umpires at the 15-second mark of their set shot, instead receiving just a warning at 25 seconds. Players are allowed 30 seconds to start their set-shot approach.
It's one of three tweaks to rule interpretations that have been made ahead of the 2023 Toyota AFL Premiership Season, with the League aiming to simplify the game for officiating, minimising delays and reducing player exploitation of rules.
INS AND OUTS Every club's full list changes ahead of 2023
The modification expected to have the greatest impact on games is around drawing a 50m penalty with a fake handball, a move used by players last season, when they would goad their opponent into moving off the mark before play on was called.
In the video below, Brisbane captain Dayne Zorko gives away a 50m penalty after moving off the mark as St Kilda forward Jack Higgins shaped to handball. This will no longer result in a 50m penalty.
SHARE
00:25
Higgins' fake handball fools Zorko
Jack Higgins wins a 50m penalty after faking a handball on the mark against Brisbane
Published on Aug 12, 2022, 10:20pm
Additionally, players have to make an immediate decision regarding the 5m protected area. When a player is penalised for giving away a free kick or loses a marking contest, they must stand the mark or immediately leave the protected area.
In the video below, Collingwood star Darcy Moore is not in the contest but opts to enter the protected area. He must stand the mark. The example below would now result in a 50m penalty as he has left the area after initially deciding to enter.
00:21
Moore's change of mind on the mark
Collingwood's Darcy Moore chooses to back outside the protected area during the qualifying final against Geelong in 2022
Published on Sep 3, 2022, 6:15pm
The third change will see players no longer given an alert by umpires at the 15-second mark of their set shot, instead receiving just a warning at 25 seconds. Players are allowed 30 seconds to start their set-shot approach.
I had Tarryn Thomas at F4 until I found out about his (alleged) scumbaggery. There seems to be a big gap between good JS and good scoring in the $150-220k range up forward; your Ben Kings, Oscar Allen, Charlie Comben types seem pretty certain to play a lot of games, but you might get 30-50 points from them unless you're really lucky with a spike game, but I do think in the long term it's a sacrifice that is prudent to make.
Josh Bruce in defence and Toby McLean hopefully provide onfield scoring in the meantime.
Josh Bruce in defence and Toby McLean hopefully provide onfield scoring in the meantime.
Despite looking like a gun in the making, there's still a big question mark on Ashcroft for me.
He's not like Walsh where he walks in to the club and becomes one of the most talented on the list straight away (sorry Blues fans). Brisbane have lots of talent and have just brought in Dunkley as well. Where does Ashcroft's midfield time come from?
Seems like he'll be HFFed to squeeze him into the team.
He's not like Walsh where he walks in to the club and becomes one of the most talented on the list straight away (sorry Blues fans). Brisbane have lots of talent and have just brought in Dunkley as well. Where does Ashcroft's midfield time come from?
Seems like he'll be HFFed to squeeze him into the team.